A lot of people have been worried about the current state of the games industry. Tons of expensive, poorly made CoD clones flooding the market, development costs skyrocketing, companies like EA and Ubisoft chugging out games as fast as they can, yet still reporting losses - people see parallels with the first big videogame crash, when Atari fell like a mighty oak and games essentially disappeared before Nintendo saved us all. Game prices skyrocketed, and people's interest in said games plummeted, just as today people have been buying less and less consoles. History repeats itself, and who's to say we might not make the same mistakes again?
Well, me, for starters.
First of all, this industry is a lot more advanced nowadays, and we have more legs to stand on. Whereas Atari was basically the top dog in games, we have 3 now. And one of those 3 is Nintendo. They were dragged into the HD age kicking and screaming - if a crash does begin to happen, they'll just put out a cheap, bare-bones console with good games, like they did the last time. And while triple-A game costs may be skyrocketing, we have a new player called 'indie'. Back in the day, if you wanted to make a simple Pacman clone, you had to cut out your soul and serve it to Atari on a silver platter. Now, we have Kickstarter, where a few million dollars can make a game developer's wildest dreams come true, publishers be damned. When the rich guests have left, the beggars have their fill.
This isn't even mentioning mobile games. As console sales fall, their sales skyrocket. What's a videogame crash to a console which offers half its games for free? And just as Nintendo came out from the shadows, a big indie guy like Rovio might emerge and make their own console, one radically different than what we've seen before, but one made for a new market. It's like a jack: no matter how far you throw it, one point always points up.
Second, the industry is aware of this threat and is already hedging their bets. EA may not be on the fast track to console success, but PvZ 2 was an unmitigated success, and they turned out to handle the F2P market incredibly well. They just might be able to salvage the stuff if they try hard enough. Nintendo's newest console is already pandering to the tablet demographic; their next console could be fully portable and allow you to make calls, and they'd call it a logical evolution. As for the other two, Microsoft is well known by now for making drastic changes to adapt to different scenarios, and Sony earned their brownie points for learning for Microsoft's mistakes and adapting thusly. If the games industry came crashing down tomorrow, at least one of them would end up on top.
Finally, games are nowhere near as expensive as way back then. Just before the crash, one Atari game would cost today's equivalent of $100. Console games are firmly trapped under a $60 ceiling, and 3DS games cost even less. Nobody wants to be the asshole who started charging $65; that said, if one succeeded, the rest might follow. But even then, the aforementioned indie games don't have the same relentless drive for profits as triple-A games do. You have no investors to compensate, you just want your game played by as many people as possible. Many indie games are around $15 at launch, and the big 3 are making sure their consoles are full of indie titles. So there will always be a cheaper alternative.
And the same also goes for consoles. As I said before, Atari was the big dog, and most competitors charged even more for their consoles. Nowadays, we have N, S, and M charging $300, $400, and $500 for their consoles, a much wider range. And let's not forget the Ouya, the honorable attempt to make a $99 console. Whether or not the thing is any good is inconsequential; as long as there's an option to buy a $99 console, then the barrier to enter console gaming is precisely that low. If the crash did happen, Microsoft would take the biggest fall for it. The other two could save themselves, and even if they didn't, the dollar-store console everyone counted out could take the crown.
So no, there's no crash coming. Maybe a couple companies would fall, but the industry isn't going anywhere. So instead of worrying your head, you can focus on other things, like having sex or reading books. (Incidentally, those two things would also make a big comeback if there was a crash.)
Discussion Question: When did we start saying Triple-A instead of AAA? And whatever happened to A and AA?
Well, me, for starters.
First of all, this industry is a lot more advanced nowadays, and we have more legs to stand on. Whereas Atari was basically the top dog in games, we have 3 now. And one of those 3 is Nintendo. They were dragged into the HD age kicking and screaming - if a crash does begin to happen, they'll just put out a cheap, bare-bones console with good games, like they did the last time. And while triple-A game costs may be skyrocketing, we have a new player called 'indie'. Back in the day, if you wanted to make a simple Pacman clone, you had to cut out your soul and serve it to Atari on a silver platter. Now, we have Kickstarter, where a few million dollars can make a game developer's wildest dreams come true, publishers be damned. When the rich guests have left, the beggars have their fill.
This isn't even mentioning mobile games. As console sales fall, their sales skyrocket. What's a videogame crash to a console which offers half its games for free? And just as Nintendo came out from the shadows, a big indie guy like Rovio might emerge and make their own console, one radically different than what we've seen before, but one made for a new market. It's like a jack: no matter how far you throw it, one point always points up.
Second, the industry is aware of this threat and is already hedging their bets. EA may not be on the fast track to console success, but PvZ 2 was an unmitigated success, and they turned out to handle the F2P market incredibly well. They just might be able to salvage the stuff if they try hard enough. Nintendo's newest console is already pandering to the tablet demographic; their next console could be fully portable and allow you to make calls, and they'd call it a logical evolution. As for the other two, Microsoft is well known by now for making drastic changes to adapt to different scenarios, and Sony earned their brownie points for learning for Microsoft's mistakes and adapting thusly. If the games industry came crashing down tomorrow, at least one of them would end up on top.
Finally, games are nowhere near as expensive as way back then. Just before the crash, one Atari game would cost today's equivalent of $100. Console games are firmly trapped under a $60 ceiling, and 3DS games cost even less. Nobody wants to be the asshole who started charging $65; that said, if one succeeded, the rest might follow. But even then, the aforementioned indie games don't have the same relentless drive for profits as triple-A games do. You have no investors to compensate, you just want your game played by as many people as possible. Many indie games are around $15 at launch, and the big 3 are making sure their consoles are full of indie titles. So there will always be a cheaper alternative.
And the same also goes for consoles. As I said before, Atari was the big dog, and most competitors charged even more for their consoles. Nowadays, we have N, S, and M charging $300, $400, and $500 for their consoles, a much wider range. And let's not forget the Ouya, the honorable attempt to make a $99 console. Whether or not the thing is any good is inconsequential; as long as there's an option to buy a $99 console, then the barrier to enter console gaming is precisely that low. If the crash did happen, Microsoft would take the biggest fall for it. The other two could save themselves, and even if they didn't, the dollar-store console everyone counted out could take the crown.
So no, there's no crash coming. Maybe a couple companies would fall, but the industry isn't going anywhere. So instead of worrying your head, you can focus on other things, like having sex or reading books. (Incidentally, those two things would also make a big comeback if there was a crash.)
Discussion Question: When did we start saying Triple-A instead of AAA? And whatever happened to A and AA?