GyroCaptain said:
goodman528 said:
N. Korea has no offensive military capability against anyone in the region.
Correction: no sustainable offensive military capability. They have more artillery pieces per capita than, well, anyone, and as such are well set to inflict hurt in the short term. They know they'd lose in any major engagements in the long run so all their actions are along the lines of "I can touch you now" actions. How much you consider these actions as deterrent and how much as a complete paranoid's idea of deterrence might vary. Basically, they're like Switzerland on crack (and a starving cult of personality).
OK, N. Korea could theoretically start an artillery strike on Seoul. But that's not not an offensive. A military offensive is more than just throwing grenades or 155mm shells over a fence. If N. Korea starts a war against S. Korea this is what will happen:
1) As soon as it becomes clear war is inevitable, China will remove N. Korea's nuclear deterrent, to avoid the possibility of WWIII.
2) 3 hours into the war, N. Korean Air Force will be destroyed by the combined forces of S. Korean and US Air Forces.
3) 12 hours into the war, N. Korean Army's mobile units will all be immobilized by ground attacks from S. Korea / USA. Probably before they can breakthrough the DMZ.
This is assuming S. Korea does not launch a pre-emptive strike against N. Korea; and assuming China and Japan both stay out of the war.