Ukraine

Dalisclock

Making lemons combustible again
Legacy
Escapist +
Feb 9, 2008
9,994
5,371
118
A Barrel In the Marketplace
Country
Eagleland
Gender
Male

This is Russia's Vietnam, along with Finland and Afghanistan.
Is Russia still makes noises about retaliation to NATO for helping Ukraine? Because I'm sure Finland would love to go for round 2. Also Poland. Maybe a Poland and Finland tag team match vs. Russia just to make things interesting?

On another note, anyone want to take bets on how long it is until the Offiicer in charge of the Kharkiv forces has an unfortunate "accident" and what kind? Because I'm guessing Putin isn't particularly happy right now.

Put me down for "Comrade General shot himself in the head 7 times with his service revolver. He was very despondent. Do not ask questions" in the next 2 weeks.
 
Last edited:

Godzillarich(aka tf2godz)

Get the point
Legacy
Aug 1, 2011
2,879
422
88
Cretaceous
Country
USA
Gender
Dinosaur
If I have to guess how this happened the same reason a lot of Russian Losses, Arrogance.

Russia thought they needed to just take the southern coastline of Ukraine and they could win the war, I've heard from people smarter than me is that this was the goal of the Russian military after they failed to take Kyiv, cut it off the coast, Getting most of its resources, crippling Ukraine and make it dependent on Russia.

The problem lays in that they believed Ukraine was only good at digging in So they do not have to worry about Defense. So they left the small force in Kharkiv and assumed Ukraine did not have enough power to take it especially with them defending the southern coast. Ukraine has been vocal in their plans to attack Kharkiv region but Russia simply believe that they didn't have the power and did not care for preeparing for it. Now they have been caught with their pants between there legs.
 

McElroy

Elite Member
Legacy
Apr 3, 2013
4,400
299
88
Finland
Is Russia still makes noises about retaliation to NATO for helping Ukraine? Because I'm sure Finland would love to go for round 2. Also Poland. Maybe a Poland and Finland tag team match vs. Russia just to make things interesting?
Maybe not. Not for that reason. Like, funny enough we wouldn't take Vyborg back for free. Petsamo (Pechengsky) maybe.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Dalisclock

Silvanus

Elite Member
Legacy
Jan 15, 2013
8,447
3,933
118
Country
United Kingdom
Ukraine has been vocal in their plans to attack Kharkiv region
Hmm, not really. Ukraine widely publicised an upcoming counteroffensive towards Kherson. The push into Kharkiv Oblast wasn't widely publicised at all. Its seen as a successful disinformation campaign to prompt Russia to shift its material away from Kharkiv.
 

Satinavian

Elite Member
Legacy
Apr 30, 2016
1,163
364
88
Hmm, not really. Ukraine widely publicised an upcoming counteroffensive towards Kherson. The push into Kharkiv Oblast wasn't widely publicised at all. Its seen as a successful disinformation campaign to prompt Russia to shift its material away from Kharkiv.
Not sure.

More likely they had the strength to attack both sides, knowing that Russia would have problems defending both. Also it is difficult for Russia to move troops into or from Cherson, so it couldn't react erll on how the offendives went.
 

Silvanus

Elite Member
Legacy
Jan 15, 2013
8,447
3,933
118
Country
United Kingdom
Not sure.

More likely they had the strength to attack both sides, knowing that Russia would have problems defending both. Also it is difficult for Russia to move troops into or from Cherson, so it couldn't react erll on how the offendives went.
I don't doubt they have the strength to attack both-- there are simultaneous counteroffensives going on. But it's very notable how one front was widely known, and the other wasn't; and that Russia moved its material and personnel directly from one to the other. Ukrainian government spokespeople have even explicitly said it was disinformation now that the beginning of the movement has come and gone.
 

Eligius

Member
Jun 15, 2022
5
9
3
Country
Belgium
I don't doubt they have the strength to attack both-- there are simultaneous counteroffensives going on. But it's very notable how one front was widely known, and the other wasn't; and that Russia moved its material and personnel directly from one to the other. Ukrainian government spokespeople have even explicitly said it was disinformation now that the beginning of the movement has come and gone.
Not only that.

Most of the Ukrainian troops in the northern offensive are armed with western equipment: This was carefully planned.
 

Dalisclock

Making lemons combustible again
Legacy
Escapist +
Feb 9, 2008
9,994
5,371
118
A Barrel In the Marketplace
Country
Eagleland
Gender
Male
  • Like
Reactions: CM156 and Eligius

Godzillarich(aka tf2godz)

Get the point
Legacy
Aug 1, 2011
2,879
422
88
Cretaceous
Country
USA
Gender
Dinosaur

if you want to see the before or after picture of this event


Also this video is a good watch and at 1:55 is the most relevant point. Basically the first time in the war the ukrainians are at the border now, meaning that they can attack russia. They most likely won't but the chance of it is extremely terrifying to the command of Russia
 

bluegate

Elite Member
Legacy
Dec 28, 2010
2,094
666
118
Great work by the Ukrainian army, I just hope they manage to keep their recaptured territories and that this doesn't make Russia go for a full mobilisation.
 

Terminal Blue

Elite Member
Legacy
Feb 18, 2010
3,544
1,246
118
Country
United Kingdom
Russia turned off the gas to Europe. We knew that was going too happen But the timing seemed weird considering it wasn't Winter yet.

I wonder if Russian leadershiip knew this was coming so they activated their trrump card Hoping to scare Europe
It's an absolutely stupid trump card, though one that makes sense given the shitty situation.

Europe had already agreed a timetable to stop importing Russian gas. Russia is clearly just trying to get ahead of this and make the transition more painful. It is just an attempt to hurt the European population by making them cold and poor. The problem is that the big economies of Western Europe have significant quantities of gas in storage and can afford to pay a premium on whatever is available. Whatever pain will be inflicted on them will ultimately be far less significant than the loss of export revenue will be to Russia.

The smaller economies of eastern Europe will probably be hurting this winter, and to a lesser extent next winter too, but even then those countries governments aren't about to cave to Russia and stop backing Ukraine because they have clear historical, ideological and foreign policy reasons not to want to do that, and the population generally seems to understand and support those decisions.

That said, I can't wait for Seanchaidh to pop in and backflip into the sea trying to explain how sanctions are justified now and having old people freeze to death because they can't pay their energy bills is striking a blow against Western capitalism and necessary for the glorious anti-Imperialist crusade.
 
Last edited:

Terminal Blue

Elite Member
Legacy
Feb 18, 2010
3,544
1,246
118
Country
United Kingdom
More likely they had the strength to attack both sides, knowing that Russia would have problems defending both. Also it is difficult for Russia to move troops into or from Cherson, so it couldn't react erll on how the offendives went.
The Ukrainian army is comparatively very large at this point in pure manpower terms, but it is very much an army of national defence and I'd question how much of it is trained and equipped for offensive operations. Attacking is a lot harder than defending, especially without an advantage in airpower or materiel (which Ukraine still doesn't have). Going on the offensive requires a lot of skills which your typical volunteer or conscript won't have had time to develop or practice, and I suspect the professional core of the Ukrainian army is pretty under-strength at this point. You can replace weapons with western military aid, but you can't easily replace lost skills.

However, we do know that Russian military intelligence has demonstrated itself to be barely-existent and largely ineffective, while the Ukrainians are being fed information from the US satellite network and have a huge number of local informants among civilians in occupied areas. The disinformation campaign theory makes a lot more sense to me.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Dalisclock

Hades

Elite Member
Mar 8, 2013
1,619
1,006
118
Country
The Netherlands
Great work by the Ukrainian army, I just hope they manage to keep their recaptured territories and that this doesn't make Russia go for a full mobilisation.
I wonder if a general mobilization would even be helpful for Russia. One of the crippling factors for the Russian army is that the morale is abysmal, and filling the ranks with people who absolutely don't want to be there won't help matters. And given their recent shopping sprees in Iran and North Korea it seems that Russia can barely afford t arm the army they currently have on the field, let alone a massive influx of new conscripts.
 

CM156

Resident Reactionary
Legacy
May 6, 2020
1,010
994
118
Country
United States
Gender
White Male
I wonder if a general mobilization would even be helpful for Russia. One of the crippling factors for the Russian army is that the morale is abysmal, and filling the ranks with people who absolutely don't want to be there won't help matters. And given their recent shopping sprees in Iran and North Korea it seems that Russia can barely afford t arm the army they currently have on the field, let alone a massive influx of new conscripts.
In the past, armies that couldn't be properly paid would be offered their pay in whatever booty they could plunder. Though I don't know if sending a washing machine back home would be much use to your average Russian soldier.
Assuming they could even make it back home. I've seen pictures of overrun Russian positions and the "loot" they've tried to drag away and it has real "Napoleon's soldiers freeze in Russia holding gold" energy.

That said, I can't wait for Seanchaidh to pop in and backflip into the sea trying to explain how sanctions are justified now and having old people freeze to death because they can't pay their energy bills is striking a blow against Western capitalism and necessary for the glorious anti-Imperialist crusade.
No price is too high to bring down your enemies, if you're not the one paying it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Dalisclock

Dalisclock

Making lemons combustible again
Legacy
Escapist +
Feb 9, 2008
9,994
5,371
118
A Barrel In the Marketplace
Country
Eagleland
Gender
Male
However, we do know that Russian military intelligence has demonstrated itself to be barely-existent and largely ineffective, while the Ukrainians are being fed information from the US satellite network and have a huge number of local informants among civilians in occupied areas. The disinformation campaign theory makes a lot more sense to me.
I've seen claims that people are feeding Russians positions including coordinates to the Ukrainian Armed Forces via Twitter posts, which then get bombed by Ukrainian artillery. I'm not sure if that's a joke or something that's actually happening though at this point I'd believe either.
 
  • Like
Reactions: CM156

Bedinsis

Elite Member
Legacy
Escapist +
May 29, 2014
869
334
68
Country
Sverige
I keep coming back to a comment made by the popular youtuber Kraut:
Kraut said:
Something I will talk about in a video soon but which I wanted to share with you here. Especially if you have friends in Russia.

I have seen a lot of talk, on social media, on TV and even in papers, full of optimism in anticipation of the supposedly impending collapse of the Putin regime. I am far more pessimistic and caution you against this optimism. I have Russian friends and over the last weeks they have all left Russia for Estonia, Finland, and Germany, and should you have Russian friends who oppose Putin - I would highly advise you to talk them into leaving their country. Because I believe things are going to become very grim in Russia.

I studied history at the Institute for Slavic cultural studies in Vienna, I have taken a special interest in Russian history. And let me tell you, the one thing that has happened throughout Russian history whenever a Russian leader went to war - were domestic crackdowns and increasing authoritarianism. The only exception to this was when the Soviet Union lost the war in Afghanistan, and when the Tsar lost the first world war, and those are exceptions because they were tied to a collapse of the Russian state structures themselves into chaos and anarchy (The end of communism and the end of the Russian monarchy)

I assume that most of you live in democratic countries. And if you do, you need to keep in mind that you live in a civil society with political powers held by the public. When we go to war as democracies, our societies have the right to critique and influence the war through electoral means and public pressure. For example, Spain joined the Iraq war in 2003, the Spanish public hated it, and a year later the Spanish people voted their government out and the new government instantly pulled Spain out of the Iraq war.

That does not happen in non-democratic countries. When Saddam Hussain lost his war against Kuwait he started a genocide against Shia Arabs. When the Nazis realized they had lost the second world war in 1943 they intensified the Holocaust. When the Ottomans started losing the first world war they committed the Armenian genocide. When Pakistan lost its 1971 war against India it resulted in a coup and brutal authoritarian regime. When Stalin lost the Winter War he launched a brutal purge of Soviet Intellectuals and military leaders.

Authoritarian regimes, can not admit to mistakes.
There is no bigger mistake for an authoritarian ruler than losing a war. Accountability for war always lies with those who start it, and rather than admitting a mistake or a defeat an authoritarian ruler will always crackdown on civil dissent first. The war is currently not looking good for Putin. It is possible that he may lose it. What is certain already is that this war has come at an enormous cost to the Russian people. And I believe Putin will blame that cost on some fall-guy in his government (probably the boss of the internal security services) and then crackdown on any and all remaining public dissent with a ruthlessness that we have not seen in Russia in decades.

If you have Russian friends in Russia who oppose this war or oppose Putin, you should ask them to leave Russia. I hope I am wrong. I really hope I am wrong. But, if the study of history is by any means an indicator by which one can predict future developments, then I believe there are very dark times ahead for Russia. And that we will see Russia return to the type of iron-fisted authoritarianism that we have not seen since some of the darkest days of the Soviet Union.
I therefore worry about what will happen to Russian minorities, since this war is most certainly not going Russia's way.

I also got my Swedish electricity bill today. Before the war I paid at most 120 krona for my monthly electricity use, but often less than 100 krona. The most recent one is at 450 krona. Just a small anecdote on the indirect impact of the war.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Dalisclock