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Dalisclock

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Well, yes, but then Russia can use nuclear weapons if it wants, and whatever justification it comes up with would be irrelevant in the aftermath.

OTOH, as a threat of escalation, as a warning and a reminder, this is par for the course (Chian gave Australia a similar one a little while ago and it wasn't a huge deal) and much more useful to them.
Isn't this like the 20th time Russia has dropped the threat of nukes in regard to Ukraine? Because I swear we've heard this a lot and so far it's meant nothing substantive.
 
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Silvanus

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Isn't this like the 20th time Russia has dropped the threat of nukes in regard to Ukraine? Because I swear we've heard this a lot and so far it's meant nothing substantive.
It's the first time it's come hand-in-hand (same day, even) with the announcement that they'll shortly be considering 4 oblasts of Ukraine to be "Russian territory", thus creating the circumstances he laid out under which Russia could use them.

And its the first time (IIRC) its come directly from the President since the Kharkiv/Kherson counteroffensive.
 

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It's the first time it's come hand-in-hand (same day, even) with the announcement that they'll shortly be considering 4 oblasts of Ukraine to be "Russian territory", thus creating the circumstances he laid out under which Russia could use them.

And its the first time (IIRC) its come directly from the President since the Kharkiv/Kherson counteroffensive.
Fair enough. Otoh, after you threaten to launch nukes x number of times and then make no indication you're planning to do so(fueling missiles, sortieing the fleet, etc?), Eventually it feels like "put up or shut up, Vlad".

Honestly I have to wonder how much of the Russian missile forces are capable of hitting thier targets and I suspect Putin has wondered as well. Because Russia is not impressing with their ability to maintain or supply thier forces.

Don't get me wrong. It would be catastrophic if Russia launched a first strike no matter how many nukes go off. I just suspect the number of nukes capable of reaching their targets ATM is probably a bit lower then the official numbers.

Russia can make life miserable for a lot of people in the event of a nuclear strike. Russia will be wiped off the fucking map if they do. don't want to test this. I hope the Russian brass or even Putin don't want to either.

This isn't 1945 anymore. You can't drop two nukes with the implication you have a hundred more ready to go(but you actually don't) and get away with that. NATO will freak the hell out and go to high alert the moment that happens and Putin can't "sorry, is joke" out of that. He'd be a fucking idiot to go nuclear on any thing less then full war footing/full "no shit" mobilization because every Russian military unit suspected to be nuclear armed will go to the top of the "Kill this first" list. We're very likely at Article 5 territory there.

On a related note, I suspect the Pentagon doesn't see Putin threatening to nuke shit as credible because of what we're not seeing. That being:
-We're not seeing Naval vessels and fleets putting to sea suddenly and ahead of schedule AKA with with some massive urgency.
-We're not seeing NATO bombers being prepped for immediate takeoff and or spending a lot of time in the air just outside of Russian Airspace. Particularly the Heavy ones Like B-2 and B-52s that are capable of carrying nuclear payloads.
-We're not seeing reservists called up suddenly.
-We're not seeing the DEFCON getting steadily/sudenly lowered down to 3...2....1(Game over).

These are all things we'd be doing if we seriously expected Putin to drop a nuke in the near future, both as a "Don't even try it, fucker" warning and a hammer ready to drop if he did because if Russia uses one, we're going to assume they're going to use more and that would very, very likely be the line in the sand for NATO intervention.

Now, if we start seeing the above, get worried because shit is going down at that point.
 
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The Rogue Wolf

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I hope the Russian brass or even Putin don't want to either
Aye, there's the rub. Putin I can see deciding that turning a significant portion of the world into a glowing parking lot would be just desserts for it not bending to his will, but what about his military staff? They're the ones who turn the keys and push the button.
 
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Aye, there's the rub. Putin I can see deciding that turning a significant portion of the world into a glowing parking lot would be just desserts for it not bending to his will, but what about his military staff? They're the ones who turn the keys and push the button.
That's the question, yeah. If Putin calls for a nuke strike, do the army commanders go "Yes Sir!" or does one of them put a gun to his head with a "Sorry, Comrade. Thank you for your service to the motherland but I'll take it from here"?
 

Thaluikhain

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That's the question, yeah. If Putin calls for a nuke strike, do the army commanders go "Yes Sir!" or does one of them put a gun to his head with a "Sorry, Comrade. Thank you for your service to the motherland but I'll take it from here"?
I'd very much imagine it the latter, only less polite and the public are told it was a tragic accident, or maybe terrorists from *insert group they want to persecute here*.
 
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Terminal Blue

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Aye, there's the rub. Putin I can see deciding that turning a significant portion of the world into a glowing parking lot would be just desserts for it not bending to his will, but what about his military staff? They're the ones who turn the keys and push the button.
1663825253170.png

This is Russian minister of defence Sergei Shoigu's mansion. Based on his official salary, he has apparently been saving up for well over a century to afford it, which is very impressive for a 67 year old.

I don't think he's ready to leave and try his hand at getting that camel through the eye of a needle just yet.

Also, I said this earlier but if any of this talk of nuclear escalation was actually serious and not just rhetoric to scare the population of Western countries and look tough for the home crowd, it would be accompanied by very obvious increases in the readiness of the nuclear armed parts of the military. Again, we'd be seeing submarine deployments and launcher vehicles being moved to firing positions.

Above all, if the possibility of nuclear weapon use was under serious consideration, the Russian government would almost certainly want to make this fact incredibly obvious, because the only good possible outcome is that everyone else backs down.
 
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So, according to Sergei Shoigu, the total number of people to be conscripted for the "partial mobilisation" will be 300,000.

However, a section of Putin's mobilisation decree is redacted from public versions. Dmitry Peskov says that section concerns... the number to be conscripted.

🧐

Meanwhile, non-sanctioned flights out of Russia (into Georgia and elsewhere) sold out within minutes of the mobilisation decree. And over 1,000 were arrested for protests across Russia over a few days.
 
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Hades

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View attachment 7072

This is Russian minister of defence Sergei Shoigu's mansion. Based on his official salary, he has apparently been saving up for well over a century to afford it, which is very impressive for a 67 year old.

I don't think he's ready to leave and try his hand at getting that camel through the eye of a needle just yet.

Also, I said this earlier but if any of this talk of nuclear escalation was actually serious and not just rhetoric to scare the population of Western countries and look tough for the home crowd, it would be accompanied by very obvious increases in the readiness of the nuclear armed parts of the military. Again, we'd be seeing submarine deployments and launcher vehicles being moved to firing positions.

Above all, if the possibility of nuclear weapon use was under serious consideration, the Russian government would almost certainly want to make this fact incredibly obvious, because the only good possible outcome is that everyone else backs down.
I didn’t expect a high member of the Kremlin to be a weabo.
 
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Meanwhile, non-sanctioned flights out of Russia (into Georgia and elsewhere) sold out within minutes of the mobilisation decree. And over 1,000 were arrested for protests across Russia over a few days.
They're just going on spring break in Paris. Nothing to worry about. They'll be back in a week. /s
 

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I read that they are force drafting people that protest the war. Sounds like a bad choice. People protesting wars sound like they'd make for poor soldiers.
 
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Business Insider: Putin is giving orders to generals on battlefield as dysfunction grows.

Apparently Putin is trying to micromanage the war and it wouldn't shock me at all because he seems like the kind of authoritarian dipshit who insists he knows best.
 

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I read that they are force drafting people that protest the war. Sounds like a bad choice. People protesting wars sound like they'd make for poor soldiers.
Putin's more interested in having boots on the ground to make it look like he's got an inexhaustible supply of troops. They just have to look the part, not act it.

Plus if they get killed, that's one less execution the budget has to cover.
 
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Xprimentyl

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... he seems like the kind of authoritarian dipshit who insists he knows best.
What tipped you off, the fact that he started this shit to begin with, or the fact that he is in damage control because of this shit? I mean, which side of this shit show is most telling of his authoritarian "I know best" mentality?

We need to get with Bezos and Musk, put Putin and Trump on one of their fancy rockets, and launch that shit on a one-way trip to Mars after telling Putin and Trump they get first dibs on ownership of anything of value found there, then back to a much-needed normal for the rest of us.
 
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What tipped you off, the fact that he started this shit to begin with, or the fact that he is in damage control because of this shit? I mean, which side of this shit show is most telling of his authoritarian "I know best" mentality?
I mean, when you put it that way.....

I guess I was understating that he's totally the kind of dipshit who would do that because all of those control freak fuckers do that kind of stuff. They don't trust the people around them so they insist on doing it themselves despite having little or no idea what they're doing. Hitler apparently got really into all of those Nazi "Wunderweapons" like the giant tanks and shit and insisted they be put into production. It got so bad some of his staff would just let him do his thing and then quietly cancel some of the more outlandish projects when his attention inevitably drifted elsewhere.

Up to 1,300 today apparently. Very popular vacation time, late September.
That's when you get the best discounts, of course. Logic!
 

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For the benefit of the people, I intend to keep track of all things to avoid in Russia including tea, windows, cliffs, boats, and now, stairs
Next they'll announce the death of someone who walked against a wall and hit it too hard with their head.