So here's what's happened so far:
Everyone was excited for Portal 2.
Valve starts this ARG. To be involved you have to buy a pack of indie games for admittedly a great price, despite a few of them are outright shovelware. (I'm looking at you Dejobaan) Valve supporting the indies, everyone is pleased.
Everyone goes RABID for Portal 2 (the usual fanboys start throwing around theories that this is actually about HL:Ep3 instead of Portal)
Excitement builds and builds until everyone is going absolutely insane with lust over getting their hands on this game.
The "4/19/2011 7AM = 4/15/2011 9AM" hint is dropped at some point. 4/19 is the official release date, but a time has never been given.
Every interview with people from Valve starts mentioning 7 AM very deliberately when they mention the release date. Which suddenly starts the entire community going rabid over getting an early release that they dared not hope for even with the hint.
The community starts to split between people who've ordered on Steam (hoping for early release) and those who ordered through retail (assuming that they were getting screwed). Fights start breaking out on the SteamPowered User Forums between the 2 factions, but they are fortunately few and far between.
The ARG is apparently being solved too fast, so Valve starts spreading out messages that we deserve a break for our efforts so far to buy time to come up with more content.
A few videos start coming out on youtube claiming to be the end cinematic to the game. People were upset at first, then pretty much decided that they looked too shitty to possibly be real. The videos are squashed extremely quickly, even for youtube, with copyright claims from Valve, leading some to hold on to the idea that they were genuine.
Everyone is pretty much pleased with themselves and the whole event at this point. The next day a few more puzzles come out, are quickly solved, and then it all leads up to... a timer. Counting down to 4/15/2011 9AM. Everything points to an early release as a reward for the community's efforts.
Pirates on consoles start posting gameplay videos to youtube. Looks like the leaked endings were real afterall. People still raging in denial though. Fights start breaking out over the videos now on the SPUF.
The timer ends, and gives us... another timer. We're told we have to grind playing the potato pack games in order to get the game early. Doesn't sound too bad until people start calculating just how slow the completion bars are moving. Fans are confused, some are hopeful, others feel betrayed. More fights break out on SPUF, the community fractures even further. The HL:Ep3 fanboys still remain resolute that we're getting some announcement (poor misguided fools).
Another marketing push both on Steam and on the countdown page to BUY BUY BUY so you can maybe play the game a few hours early. All good will generated by supporting indie devs has been cashed in at this point. The fans rage on the forums. Fighting is becoming almost constant.
No one in Valve is responding to anything at this point. edit: On the forums, the mods let the fights rage on, but any links posted to spoiler videos are gone within seconds of posting. They're out there, but they don't care that their entire fanbase is crumbling.
So that's where we are so far, the hopeful idling games (what fun!), some people flat out raging, and a larger and larger number of people posting on the forums about how this has completely taken away any excitement they once had about the release. Many are seeking refunds from Valve because retailers are selling the game for cheaper, and will still probably release earlier than this "early" release everyone has been working so hard on for 2 weeks.
The once unified community on the official forums is now in shambles. Congratulations, was it worth it?
I think this is going to go down in history as "how NOT to release a game".
There is a shred of hope amongst some fans that the leaked endings, and even some of the gameplay (just wait till you figure out what all this potato nonsense is about) is actually a fake version put in by valve to prank the pirates. In reality, this seems misguided at best since all the content has come from console versions.
So, now we watch a bar fill on a website, with dwindling interest. I haven't been excited about a game release in years, and Valve has managed to inflate that to almost bursting, then ruin it to the point where I just don't really care about it. I might play it next month, but the word Portal just leaves a dirty taste in my mouth right now.
Of interesting note, my captcha is "gincycle PTSD". Seems fitting. This has been handled about as well as someone drinking gin can handle a bike, and some of the fans are going to have post traumatic stress disorder over this.