1. Global Warming, aka "With a bit of luck my house will have a beach the day after tomorrow"
In the worst case, we'd see a drastic change in climate. Large areas that are now considered fertile could become arid, deserts could increase drastically in size, and several countries could become part of our glorious oceans.
Could it kill us: Nope! I don't know that much about global warming, but earth's seen some climate changes already, and there's probably nothing coming that some part of the world isn't experiencing already. The odds of ALL of the world becoming ENTIRELY unsuitable for cultivation and survival are zero. It could heavily reduce the amount of land available for humans and other animals in the future though, but that's hardly anywhere near extinction.
2. A huge Meteor, aka "Deep Impact without the double entendre"
Theoretically, we could easily be wiped out by a huge meteor. Anything large enough hitting the earth fast enough wouldn't only create a crater, but could potentially push us out of our place in the solar system. That would probably result in a lot of incredibly funny cosmic hijinks and the death of pretty much anything on earth. And earth itself, should we end up falling into the sun. However, it's more likely that a small meteor causes a ridiculous amount of dust to go into the air, blocking out the sun and warmth, effectively starting an ice age.
Could it kill us: Not very likely at all. The largest meteor ever to hit earth wiped out a lot of species, but not all of them. Several relatively large creatures survived (alligators, iirc), and Humans would probably adapt to a world with extremely little sun. Yes, we'd drastically change and be forced to adapt, and yes, we may end up needing to live in a nomadic fashion again, but I see no reason Humanity would be entirely finished. At worst we'd live in nomadic hunter/gatherer tribes again, but we survived that before. Now, if the meteor is significantly larger than the previous one, it's possible that large life-forms couldn't survive in a world bereft of light. But the odds of a meteor hitting the earth are incredibly low. The odds of a meteor larger than the one 65 million years ago hitting us are close to non-existant. Also, it'd be an incredibly boring way to go in my opinion.
3. Giant volcano/Superstorm/Megatsunami, aka "Can we please just get Sharknado?"
So there's a lot of huge disasters in this world. They make some good movies, usually not too deep, but with nice effects and suspense. Then they also make pretty bad movies, which is usually the case. And then they make Birdemic. Do I need to say anything else? But let's be honest here, these things won't wipe out humanity by a long shot. Some natural disasters are so great that they can wipe out entire areas of all the population and cause huge problems to society. But even with disaster-movie size forces of nature, can anything really wipe out more than a continent?
Could it kill us: Nah, a meteor's got a better shot. The megavolcano could have a shot if i've overestimated the ability of humans to adapt to low sunlight though, but it would roughly have to be the size of a continent, or two. Again, a huge meteor has already proven to be way better at throwing dust into the air. An earthquake or a hurricane might do a load of damage, but even in it's tracks people survive. And those things never really bother more than a specific area. Basically, I'd like to conclude that earth isn't terribly good at destroying us all by itself. But how about we give it a hand?
4. Nuclear war/accidents, aka "Please please please, let it be like Fallout"
In all honesty, this is definitely my favourite end of the world. But will there by anything left afterwards? When it comes to accidents, absolutely yes. Not only are nuclear plants pretty safe (not taking a stance, but they won't all have a meltdown), but the effects of radiation on a large scale are hard to decide. Nobody knows exactly the damage that chernobyl caused, but the wide-range effects are likely limited to increased chance of cancer and some other diseases at worst. Definitely bad, but even a dozen or a hundred accidents like that will not highly impact humanity's odds for survival. Still, i'd love to play Stalker: Shadow of Borssele (The location of one of the Nuclear power plants in the Netherlands.
Now, a nuclear war is something quite different. With some 17.300 nukes spread around over countries, the only true prediction I can make is: I'm not sure, but I think we've got a shot. First off, only a minority of those nukes will likely be launched. The storage facilities and launch installations for these things will be prime targets when all hell breaks loose, so I imagine only a small % of the arsenal can be fired before most of the stockpiles are hit. Still, there should probably be enough to crush every single major city in the world within a few minutes, and just imagine what the fallout could do after that.
Could it kill us: Accidents aren't likely to do more than kill everone in the area and give a lot of people nasty tumors in a widespread region. But when it comes to nuclear war, we definitely have the ABILITY to destroy ourselves. 17.300 missiles neatly arranged all over the world would probably destroy just about anything, contaminate it, and throw up a dustcloud that would make it impossible to ever see the sun ever again. But a nucear war will likely be short, brutal, and not quite as apocalyptic as we'd think. During a nuclear attack, the first priority will be to take out the other's capability to fire off nuclear weapons. In all likelyhood, deploying the weapons will become quite impossible after the first exchange (at least with long-rage missiles), thus limiting the amount to the civilian population.
Sadly, there's not enough data to go by. Everyone can make a plan for war, but that won't work if you're fighting a war with a weapon that has been used exactly twice. Due to lack of facts, i'll just guess what is going to happen: Most big cities and the area surrounding them will no longer be there, and will remain inaccessible for decades, if not centuries. Within years, most of the population will be doused pretty hard with radiation, and human will probably start dying of cancer a lot more often and a lot sooner from then on. Still more devastating is the combination with the dustclouds which ruin the remaining farmland. Society will break apart, humanity will definitely feel the effects for generations to come, but we'll probably survive. Unless in some weird way the majority of the world's nuclear arsenal is launched, but I don't see how it could.