We assume that aliens who make it to Earth would be far more advanced than us based on the level of technology required for interstellar travel. This is not a bad assumption.
Why do we assume that aliens would be far more advanced than us?
- Thread starter Jacco
- Start date
Because if they contacted us then they would either have to have seriously more powerful communication equipment than us or be able to travel very long distances through space. Basically they have to have technology that is better than ours ( or that we don't have) to contact us rather than us contacting them, that's the definition of more advanced.
Because we love the underdog. Of course I think that there may be only one intelligent civilisation at a time, at least in terms of being able to communicate. With the restriction of the speed of light and the obvious language barrier and possibility of alternate communication methods we would never be able to encounter an extra-terrestrial civilisation, or even entity. (yes the speed of light works in trying to see shit too)
Well, humanity has been steadily improving our ways of killing each other very quickly over the last couple of centuries of warfare. If an alien race hadn't had a good war in a few hundred years, it's easily understandable that they might be using obsolete weaponry or not bother carrying guns much, and if the vast majority of planets they explored didn't have any hostile sophonts then there wouldn't be much justification for the expense of keeping all their ships well-armed just in case they hit that one in a million chance. Humanity on the other hand has cut funding to everything space-related for decades now. If peaceful explorers came here, we'd likely outgun them easily (at least for the first round). And then a year or so later, when they'd adapted their engine and power plant tech to warfare, they might be able to come back and wipe us out if we hadn't reverse engineered enough of their stuff to get off the ground...
Not necessarily. In physics, the Alcubierre drive is based on an argument that the curvature could take the form of a wave in which a spaceship might be carried in a "bubble". Space would be collapsing at one end of the bubble and expanding at the other end. The motion of the wave would carry a spaceship from one space point to another in less time than light would take through unwarped space. Nevertheless, the spaceship would not be moving faster than light within the bubble. This concept would require the spaceship to incorporate a region of exotic matter, or "negative mass".cheap_beer said:
Initially, we thought that creating such a bubble would require the energy of all of Jupiter's hydrogen. But, recently, it's been theorized that if we made the bubble oblong it would reduce the energy requirements to that of a dozen or so nuclear reactors which is very doable. Not that there's money for it or that our less savory neighbors would appreciate us hanging a dozen potential nuclear weapons over their heads.
It's actually surprising that we HAVEN'T encountered life at this point. When taking into account how old the universe is and how common life is theorized to be, there must have been dozens of intelligent species that have developed long before our planet even formed. Given that much time, even with current technology, we could have spread across the universe by this point. So, there's three or four possibilities. 1: Intelligent life, or life in general, is much rarer than we think. 2: Interstellar travel just isn't practical no matter how advanced you are (don't see this as a possibility honestly. When your star is about to die and you face extinction you'll FIND a way). 3: When a race gets advanced enough to travel into space, they'd also be advanced enough to place their consciousness into a computer world where we would ALL be Neo and who the hell cares about other planets at that point? And 4: That intelligent life hasn't spread because it invariably destroys itself before it advances to the point where that's possible.
we have that assumption because thoughts of *US* visiting other planets, especially those outside our own solar systems, are utterly infeasible.
So if some other life form managed to do it, they would need to have access to technology that our current framework of technology doesn't account for - we barely have cogent theories about how it could potentially done. To turn that into a working technology that's reliable enough to bring us to a different world is almost laughable. Our best guess is some sort of spacetime twisting ship, which as originally conceived would have required the mass-energy of jupiter (think E=mc^2 were m equals the biggest single object in our solar system apart from the sun). Recently we've figured out that that technology is feasible on a much smaller scale, so we're working on it. Still will be a long time before we have something concrete, if it ever happens.
As for "advanced military technology".. That's really the easy part. If you can get a ship from one star to another, then you've already got all the energy and technology you need to utterly destroy the surface of any one planet. Destruction is really quite easy. We've figured out how to dig up and refine uranium to the point that WE could do it to ourselves without a second thought, and that's just a rock.
In short - we could blow up the earth (or at least make it completely uninhabitable) without much trouble, but getting an object to the closest star to us is an impossible pipedream.
So if some other life form managed to do it, they would need to have access to technology that our current framework of technology doesn't account for - we barely have cogent theories about how it could potentially done. To turn that into a working technology that's reliable enough to bring us to a different world is almost laughable. Our best guess is some sort of spacetime twisting ship, which as originally conceived would have required the mass-energy of jupiter (think E=mc^2 were m equals the biggest single object in our solar system apart from the sun). Recently we've figured out that that technology is feasible on a much smaller scale, so we're working on it. Still will be a long time before we have something concrete, if it ever happens.
As for "advanced military technology".. That's really the easy part. If you can get a ship from one star to another, then you've already got all the energy and technology you need to utterly destroy the surface of any one planet. Destruction is really quite easy. We've figured out how to dig up and refine uranium to the point that WE could do it to ourselves without a second thought, and that's just a rock.
In short - we could blow up the earth (or at least make it completely uninhabitable) without much trouble, but getting an object to the closest star to us is an impossible pipedream.
I'll be honest, if i was a captain of a spaceship and found a new civilization i would fly right back home and let everyone know. unless our society had a love of genocide of people who haven't even made weapons yet.
Also, something that annoys me about alien searchers is that they assume alien are essentially human, but with blue skin or tails coming out of their heads. for all we know, mars itself could be alive, and all our little drones are tearing out chunks of it.
Also, something that annoys me about alien searchers is that they assume alien are essentially human, but with blue skin or tails coming out of their heads. for all we know, mars itself could be alive, and all our little drones are tearing out chunks of it.
You're arguing against the point you're trying to make by bringing up other galaxies.xemnahort said:
The point you're making is fine if you're talking about nearby solar systems, in which case, generational ships, robots, or some sort of statis technology, or other means of more conventional travel using similar levels of technology are somewhat plausible (or at least, not impossible).
But, galaxies are really fucking far away. Nevermind 'multi-galactic jumps', a quick google search tells me that even the nearest galaxy to us is 25,000 light-years away. Meaning, 25,000 years travel time at the speed of light, which is likely better time than anyone using 'jet-propelled rockets' is going to manage.
So, if we're talking about the nearest few stars, a couple of light years, then sure, we're still talking decades of travel but maybe a non super advanced species could make it happen. But other galaxies,or even the other side of our own? Not too bloody likely, you start looking at travel times comparable to the time our species as even existed, if not longer.
I'd just have to assume they are because tehy're doing something we as humans cant yet. UNless they're coming from mars or something then the time it would take to get here would be light years. And if they're making the trip that "easily" then they'd have to be far more advanced than us.
now I dont know if they'd all be aggressive.
now I dont know if they'd all be aggressive.
Depends on the physiology of the alien species. A species that can hibernate or go into some kind of dormancy could do the long journeys without needing so much sustenance/entertainment/whatever. A species that can survive in space naturally wouldn't need any kind of artificial gravity or spacesuit tech. There's no reason that a spacefaring race would have to be particularly advanced, just advanced enough to plot a course between stars.
But it's still more reasonable to assume a spacefaring race would be fairly advanced. The only organisms on Earth with physiology that robust are microbes.
But it's still more reasonable to assume a spacefaring race would be fairly advanced. The only organisms on Earth with physiology that robust are microbes.
If they've reached us. That's a given. They're sure as hell not hovering over to us on a petroleum engine pickup truck. (If they do that's still damn impressive and is a far more advanced pick up truck than we've ever thought of building)
If we visit THEM however the jury is obviously still out on that one.
If we visit THEM however the jury is obviously still out on that one.
While this is certainly possible, it doesn't seem highly probable unless the race itself either doesn't have a concept of violence or the need to defend themselves (unlikely they have absolutely no concept of this though since they would undoubtedly have other species on their planet, including some forms of predators), or they have moral prohibitions on violence that leave them unwilling to fight and kill other life forms.Jacco said:
But the reality is that any civilization which has become sufficiently advanced to travel through interstellar space and reach Earth has the scientific knowledge to develop weapons at least on par with ours. In fact, one of the simplest ways to wipe us out would be to find a large asteroid and propel it towards the Earth. Such a thing would be simple for a race capable of interstellar travel, and not only are we unlikely to see it coming before it's about to hit us, even if we did see it, we couldn't stop it. That's to say nothing of the possibility that they'd just launch a ton of nukes at us from space. Something else we probably couldn't deal with, especially if they move faster than any missile we could build and are constructed of tougher materials than we could damage to shoot them down. Both being very likely as well if a race can travel interstellar distances.
My point being, even if a race didn't specifically develop very powerful weapons or strong armour intentionally, any race capable of reaching us would have to have the requisite scientific knowledge to do so. Some things you're just not going to be able to skip over if you want to travel to other planets. Nuclear physics being just one of them.
A simple approach to this question would be; given the Universe is 13 billion years old, and galaxies formed almost immediately, then life can be assumed to have come forth anywhere in the universe during all that time. Now if we for the sake of easy math say; Universe could carry intelligent life for 10 billion years.
Then if someone shows up at our doorstep; they are 90% likely to be a billion years ahead of us. It is 99.99% probable that they are a million years ahead of us in scientific knowledge and reasearch. And it is 99.9999% likely that they are at least 10.000 years ahead of us.
Now given that science has been opened up to us for about a century or 2, and that we see it seems to go faster and faster. We have absolutely no idea where science will be in 10.000 years, let alone a million years.
The thought of 2 species happening to be at the same state of scientific level, given they could be anywhere in a 10 billion time frame, is so improbable that statistics throws it away.
Then if someone shows up at our doorstep; they are 90% likely to be a billion years ahead of us. It is 99.99% probable that they are a million years ahead of us in scientific knowledge and reasearch. And it is 99.9999% likely that they are at least 10.000 years ahead of us.
Now given that science has been opened up to us for about a century or 2, and that we see it seems to go faster and faster. We have absolutely no idea where science will be in 10.000 years, let alone a million years.
The thought of 2 species happening to be at the same state of scientific level, given they could be anywhere in a 10 billion time frame, is so improbable that statistics throws it away.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nearest_galaxiesJacco said:
Unless you want to ignore sattelite galaxies and are just skipping to Andromeda, plenty closer than that. To be fair, the 25,000 one has been marked as being disputed as counting as an actual galaxy, but still, a good few under the 300,000 mark.
In any case, bigger numbers only support the point my post was making.
I've always had the idea that if we were ever to find aliens, they would be "alien" to us. Everything they are/did/thought wouldn't make much if any sense to us. They might be made of gas, or not ever have to eat, and be fundamentally different from the stuff on Earth.
Assuming they are fairly similar to the kind of civilization we have now, the technology to travel through the amount of space to reach us in a lifetime would have some fairly substantial technology behind it, (Immense engines with insane fuels or some kind of wormhole) and they could easily be used as weapons.
Even if they had no concept of war or combat, and we the first species they were to come in contact with, they'd have a pretty easy time picking it up from us.
As for the main question, I don't believe that sciences as they stand today are vastly underdeveloped or overdeveloped as we tend to research and develop things we need/want. In addition, in previously unexplored technology fields, more advanced technology in other fields would probably greatly speed up the research. Imagine how quickly we'd have gotten to the moon if the technology for flight was given to us in the year, say, 1000.
Assuming they are fairly similar to the kind of civilization we have now, the technology to travel through the amount of space to reach us in a lifetime would have some fairly substantial technology behind it, (Immense engines with insane fuels or some kind of wormhole) and they could easily be used as weapons.
Even if they had no concept of war or combat, and we the first species they were to come in contact with, they'd have a pretty easy time picking it up from us.
As for the main question, I don't believe that sciences as they stand today are vastly underdeveloped or overdeveloped as we tend to research and develop things we need/want. In addition, in previously unexplored technology fields, more advanced technology in other fields would probably greatly speed up the research. Imagine how quickly we'd have gotten to the moon if the technology for flight was given to us in the year, say, 1000.
There is no real reason for us to travel (or aliens to travel from) other galaxies though, since there are plenty of solar systems and planets that could possibly support life in our own galaxy. Travel between galaxies really only makes sense with worm holes, other ways to bend space/time, or possibly ways to phase out of the universe all together (allowing it to move/rotate etc without you for awhile) and then phase back in, possibly an extreme distance away (even though you actually didn't move at all...everything else has drastically).
In theory...everything is relative...and all movement in the galaxy is relative to the initial explosion/movement....meaning that everything may be moving at a specific speed and direction..which could possibly be incredibly fast. Lights limit on speed could only be relative to other objects that have created light...meaning that if you where able to phase out...you could possibly travel thousands of light years in a second. Of course you would have no control over your direction etc, but....it's possible you could determine the direction/rotation etc..and plan for it...to determine how far/where you would show up after being out for so much time.
Anyway....as someone else mentioned, there has been plenty of time for sentient life to develop elsewhere..since we as an intelligent species have been around for such a short time. It seems highly unlikely that a very easy method of traveling vast distances is possible....as if it was possible it makes sense that any race that discovered it (or races) would quickly spread all over the place. While space is vast.....the amount of time such a race would have to expand, and the exponential growth as more and more planets where used as expansion points, would lead to eventually the race spreading throughout the entire universe.
I think, because of this, that travel at speeds faster then light is not possible. Travel through worm holes etc...is also not possible (at least survivable for any form of life). It makes sense that we are limited to traveling at speeds slower then the speed of light...and therefore, we are limited to only our own solar system and those that are relatively close to ours.
In addition, it makes sense that life is very rare indeed on planets....and that sentient life....is even more rare. Even when you do have sentient life, it's probably rare for the planet the life exists on to have the resources needed to eventually develop science to the point of long distance space travel (or for the life to ever reach space at all).
In such a case you might have something like a 1 in 10 million chance for a solar system to have a planet that can sustain life, and then actually develop life. Then you have a better chance for life to eventually develop that can use tools and develop higher thinking/science (say 1 in 1000). Then you have a fairly good chance that the planet the life develops on has the required materials, resources to reach space (say 1 in 100), and finally a fairly good chance that such a race would survive long enough to actually do so (1 in 10). All that together means something like a 1 in 10 trillion chance of actually having a planet support sentient life, that develops technology and survives long enough to reach space.
Now since it's estimated there is approximately 100 billion stars in our milky way galaxy...there is a very good chance we are the only planet in this galaxy that supports sentient life (let alone sentient life that can use tools, developed technology to the point of reaching space and survived long enough to do so).
On a galactic scale we are still babies....the question is...will we actually survive long enough to colonize other planets/moons in our own solar system, let alone beyond. The odds of that are not very good in our favor right now (I certainly wouldn't bet on it). If we do...it's likely that we might eventually dominate the entire galaxy.
There are estimated to be well over 100 billion galaxies in the universe btw....so it's VERY likely that life has developed in other galaxies...and in some of them reached the stars....terraformed other planets and started to spread throughout their galaxy. It's quite likely that there is at least one galactic civilization out there...and even probably one galaxy where more then one form of sentient life started to expand and met each other in space.
The chance of that happening here...in our galaxy is VERY small though (go buy a lottery ticket and your far more likely to win then you are to have that happening). So it's not very likely at all that aliens have visited earth...or ever will. I'd say we still are talking about less then a 1 in a million chance that we will ever reach another solar system let alone colonize one ourselves.
In theory...everything is relative...and all movement in the galaxy is relative to the initial explosion/movement....meaning that everything may be moving at a specific speed and direction..which could possibly be incredibly fast. Lights limit on speed could only be relative to other objects that have created light...meaning that if you where able to phase out...you could possibly travel thousands of light years in a second. Of course you would have no control over your direction etc, but....it's possible you could determine the direction/rotation etc..and plan for it...to determine how far/where you would show up after being out for so much time.
Anyway....as someone else mentioned, there has been plenty of time for sentient life to develop elsewhere..since we as an intelligent species have been around for such a short time. It seems highly unlikely that a very easy method of traveling vast distances is possible....as if it was possible it makes sense that any race that discovered it (or races) would quickly spread all over the place. While space is vast.....the amount of time such a race would have to expand, and the exponential growth as more and more planets where used as expansion points, would lead to eventually the race spreading throughout the entire universe.
I think, because of this, that travel at speeds faster then light is not possible. Travel through worm holes etc...is also not possible (at least survivable for any form of life). It makes sense that we are limited to traveling at speeds slower then the speed of light...and therefore, we are limited to only our own solar system and those that are relatively close to ours.
In addition, it makes sense that life is very rare indeed on planets....and that sentient life....is even more rare. Even when you do have sentient life, it's probably rare for the planet the life exists on to have the resources needed to eventually develop science to the point of long distance space travel (or for the life to ever reach space at all).
In such a case you might have something like a 1 in 10 million chance for a solar system to have a planet that can sustain life, and then actually develop life. Then you have a better chance for life to eventually develop that can use tools and develop higher thinking/science (say 1 in 1000). Then you have a fairly good chance that the planet the life develops on has the required materials, resources to reach space (say 1 in 100), and finally a fairly good chance that such a race would survive long enough to actually do so (1 in 10). All that together means something like a 1 in 10 trillion chance of actually having a planet support sentient life, that develops technology and survives long enough to reach space.
Now since it's estimated there is approximately 100 billion stars in our milky way galaxy...there is a very good chance we are the only planet in this galaxy that supports sentient life (let alone sentient life that can use tools, developed technology to the point of reaching space and survived long enough to do so).
On a galactic scale we are still babies....the question is...will we actually survive long enough to colonize other planets/moons in our own solar system, let alone beyond. The odds of that are not very good in our favor right now (I certainly wouldn't bet on it). If we do...it's likely that we might eventually dominate the entire galaxy.
There are estimated to be well over 100 billion galaxies in the universe btw....so it's VERY likely that life has developed in other galaxies...and in some of them reached the stars....terraformed other planets and started to spread throughout their galaxy. It's quite likely that there is at least one galactic civilization out there...and even probably one galaxy where more then one form of sentient life started to expand and met each other in space.
The chance of that happening here...in our galaxy is VERY small though (go buy a lottery ticket and your far more likely to win then you are to have that happening). So it's not very likely at all that aliens have visited earth...or ever will. I'd say we still are talking about less then a 1 in a million chance that we will ever reach another solar system let alone colonize one ourselves.