DevilWithaHalo said:
Loonyyy said:
Correlation != causation.
I'm tickled pink by you following this up with a causational argument.
I wouldn't argue that I think that it's the answer though. It's stated in no uncertain terms by the OP, and many others, that women are more attracted to confident men. I wonder if the effect is entirely due to that, as opposed to the fucking obvious statistical effect. Correlation != Causation means that a statistical correlation does not prove, in deductive terms, that one event causes another, especially, that correlation does not show that one event on it's own caused another. You see what I'm getting at here?
I think it's a more plausible alternative that the biases in the experiment haven't been eliminated. I think that the whole thing is a probabalistic mess of multiple factors, and I think that attributing it entirely to an
attraction to confidence is a mistake. Especially since the observation that confident men are more successful with women is the basis of that. That's the most simple correlation. But unless you rate each group over the same sample size, you'll have a problem.
From what I've seen, there's no evidence supporting the position that "Women are more attracted to confident men" as opposed to "Confident men are more likely to be successful with women.". The link between these two is assumed to be cause. I'm asking if it's not more likely that the thing is a statistical effect, a decidedly non-causational statement.
I've heard recently mentioned a few times by younger acquiantances and relatives of a study quoted by their driving instructors, wherein it was found that most car accidents happen within a certain distance of home. The quoted reason for this was that "People relax there, and then make mistakes."
But if we look at this for a moment, and consider other statistical inputs, we realise that the one point common to most car trips is the home. Going to the supermarket? Home is the start and finish. Work? Same. Picking up kids from school? Buying a new shirt? Clearly the home is a more likely place for accidents to happen, simply because you are near it more often. There may be some effect at play, but you need to compare car accidents with time in area, or distance travelled in area, rather than by circling the house and going "Hey, most of the accidents occur around here."
So, what I'd like to see for the attraction hypothesis is to compare the success rate in limited encounters. Heck, I can even design the experiment right now: You get a bunch of dudes, get them to fill out questionaires that rate social confidence, and then go on to have them interact with a bunch of women, and then get them to rate them, and see how confidence relates to their percieved attractiveness by women.
I should
hope this is the nature of the evidence for the claim, and people just aren't mentioning it because they're repeating a meme as fact. But I'm doubtful on that one. It's entirely possible that these sorts of studies exist. My search for them was pretty shallow, but hey, it's possible everyone's repeating well known conclusions of studies I'm simply ignorant of.
But hey, call my questioning of the statistical rigorousness of the position a causational argument if you will. That's clever. It shows a
deep understanding of biases and control or data sets.