Ukraine

Silvanus

Elite Member
Legacy
Jan 15, 2013
11,214
5,875
118
Country
United Kingdom

A prisoner swap was allegedly in the final stages of negotiation with Germany, that would have seen Navalny exchanged for an FSB assassin. "Natural causes" have some very convenient timing, eh.

His body has been released to his mother, following her video allegation of blackmail.
 

Ag3ma

Elite Member
Jan 4, 2023
2,564
2,199
118
Oh hey, Sweden got to join NATO, at long last.
Well, Orban certainly stretched that one out, but I think he finally might have realised after the EU started issuing serious threats that he didn't have a lot of free room left to screw around.

Although having said that, he's apparently set about strengthening security ties with China. Because every major power can see Hungary as a way to screw with Europe, and Hungary is keen to leverage that to the max. The implicit demand to the rest of Europe is obviously "If you don't like it, what's it worth paying me to not do it?"

The EU has spent years trying to be constructive and keep Hungary in the fold, and I fear that all Orban has learnt is that he can screw with the EU with minimal consequences. As far as I am concerned it just needs to be sticks from hereon in: suspend something vital from Hungary every time they pull this sort of stunt, and if needs be, fully suspend it or kick it out.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Satinavian

Silvanus

Elite Member
Legacy
Jan 15, 2013
11,214
5,875
118
Country
United Kingdom
Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council and former President, is having a normal one: threatening that if Ukraine succeeds in pushing Russian troops out of its territory, and if Russia is returned to its 1991 borders, then Russia as a country will completely collapse and they will need to launch nuclear attacks on America, Germany, UK, and Ukraine.

So, again the threat of nuclear attack even if Russia's own territory isn't threatened and if nuclear weapons aren't used against them.

He has already previously threatened nuclear attack in January and last July.


Hey remember when the Russian government insisted that the idea they might invade Ukraine was "hysteria"? And now senior Russian leaders are claiming that if they're not successful in continuing to invade Ukraine, then they'll wipe out life on earth.
 
Last edited:

Satinavian

Elite Member
Legacy
Apr 30, 2016
1,728
683
118
Although having said that, he's apparently set about strengthening security ties with China. Because every major power can see Hungary as a way to screw with Europe, and Hungary is keen to leverage that to the max. The implicit demand to the rest of Europe is obviously "If you don't like it, what's it worth paying me to not do it?"
That is part of it, but not all.

Honestly, Hungary has annoyed so many neighbours that it often has no better options than China to cooperate on various issues. Also its location made it important for Chinas ambition to increase Eurasion land trade (which is now pretty much on hold because of the war). There are many genuine reasons to cooperate,

Furthermore most European counties are not that antagnonistig towards China and/or have a huge trade volume with it themselves. It is unlikely that the EU is willing to pay anything for Hungary stopping or reducing collaborations. The pressure mostly comes from the US and other Europeans might be quite content with it being directed towards Hungary first.
 

Ag3ma

Elite Member
Jan 4, 2023
2,564
2,199
118
Furthermore most European counties are not that antagnonistig towards China and/or have a huge trade volume with it themselves. It is unlikely that the EU is willing to pay anything for Hungary stopping or reducing collaborations. The pressure mostly comes from the US and other Europeans might be quite content with it being directed towards Hungary first.
EU countries are happy to work with China to an extent. So is pretty much everyone.

However, the EU and its constituent nations are as a whole also taking measures to insulate themselves and key parts of their infrastructure and business from China, because it is to a substantial extent viewed as a security risk. Contextually, this is of course a thread on Ukraine-Russia... which country has primarily been propping up Russia, if not China?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Gyrobot

Hades

Elite Member
Mar 8, 2013
2,010
1,476
118
Country
The Netherlands
Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council and former President, is having a normal one: threatening that if Ukraine succeeds in pushing Russian troops out of its territory, and if Russia is returned to its 1991 borders, then Russia as a country will completely collapse
Don't threaten us with a good time mister Medvedev.
 

Ag3ma

Elite Member
Jan 4, 2023
2,564
2,199
118
Don't threaten us with a good time mister Medvedev.
There's potentially some truth in that.

However, it would be a potentially catastrophic political collapse through the humiliation of the ruling regime, not that Russia would be somehow fundamentally unviable as a country. Another period of chaos similar to the end of the USSR, risk of breakaway regions, and quite possibly critical loss of influence in central Asia, the Caucasus and Belarus (we would have to suspect a fair chance Luchenko would fall alongside them). I am sure there would still be a Russia at the end of it, albeit a substantially weakened one.
 

Gergar12

Elite Member
Legacy
Apr 24, 2020
3,435
813
118
Country
United States
Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council and former President, is having a normal one: threatening that if Ukraine succeeds in pushing Russian troops out of its territory, and if Russia is returned to its 1991 borders, then Russia as a country will completely collapse and they will need to launch nuclear attacks on America, Germany, UK, and Ukraine.

So, again the threat of nuclear attack even if Russia's own territory isn't threatened and if nuclear weapons aren't used against them.

He has already previously threatened nuclear attack in January and last July.


Hey remember when the Russian government insisted that the idea they might invade Ukraine was "hysteria"? And now senior Russian leaders are claiming that if they're not successful in continuing to invade Ukraine, then they'll wipe out life on earth.
I stand by my statements that most if not all of their nuke are under-maintained, and don't work.
 

Hades

Elite Member
Mar 8, 2013
2,010
1,476
118
Country
The Netherlands
There's potentially some truth in that.

However, it would be a potentially catastrophic political collapse through the humiliation of the ruling regime, not that Russia would be somehow fundamentally unviable as a country. Another period of chaos similar to the end of the USSR, risk of breakaway regions, and quite possibly critical loss of influence in central Asia, the Caucasus and Belarus (we would have to suspect a fair chance Luchenko would fall alongside them). I am sure there would still be a Russia at the end of it, albeit a substantially weakened one.
I actually wonder if Russia is viable as a state. This is the third incarnation in a row where Russia is an underdeveloped authoritarian hellhole where the government is either at best aggressively disinterested in actual governing for their people, or at worst directly out to get them. Not to mention that how the Russian core treats the outlaying regions does little to fuse Russia into a coherent state. Sacrificing the periphery regions in order to shield Moscow and Sint Petersburg from having to feel the effect of the war might be beneficial to the regime but its not a good nation building strategy.
 

PsychedelicDiamond

Wild at Heart and weird on top
Legacy
Jan 30, 2011
1,952
780
118
Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council and former President, is having a normal one: threatening that if Ukraine succeeds in pushing Russian troops out of its territory, and if Russia is returned to its 1991 borders, then Russia as a country will completely collapse and they will need to launch nuclear attacks on America, Germany, UK, and Ukraine.

So, again the threat of nuclear attack even if Russia's own territory isn't threatened and if nuclear weapons aren't used against them.

He has already previously threatened nuclear attack in January and last July.


Hey remember when the Russian government insisted that the idea they might invade Ukraine was "hysteria"? And now senior Russian leaders are claiming that if they're not successful in continuing to invade Ukraine, then they'll wipe out life on earth.
The scary part is that Medvedev will most likely be Putin's successor after he dies. Putin is a tinpot dictator, but Medvedev is actually mentally deranged.
 

Ag3ma

Elite Member
Jan 4, 2023
2,564
2,199
118
The scary part is that Medvedev will most likely be Putin's successor after he dies. Putin is a tinpot dictator, but Medvedev is actually mentally deranged.
I don't think it's that easy to predict who takes over when a dictator dies.

At least in a monarchy there's an official heir, and even then, they don't always make it. Unless a dictator actively hands the reins to someone else, it can be very unpredictable who ends up running the place when the supremo dies.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Satinavian

Hades

Elite Member
Mar 8, 2013
2,010
1,476
118
Country
The Netherlands
I don't think it's that easy to predict who takes over when a dictator dies.

At least in a monarchy there's an official heir, and even then, they don't always make it. Unless a dictator actively hands the reins to someone else, it can be very unpredictable who ends up running the place when the supremo dies.
Indeed. Beria was the obvious successor to Stalin until he wasn't. In Russia there's also the added complication that none of the oligarchs enjoy any legitimacy. They might have forced Putin into popularity by bombing their own citizens, but I suspect most oligarchs are held in contempt by the population.
 

The Rogue Wolf

Stealthy Carnivore
Legacy
Nov 25, 2007
16,373
8,873
118
Stalking the Digital Tundra
Gender
✅
At least in a monarchy there's an official heir, and even then, they don't always make it. Unless a dictator actively hands the reins to someone else, it can be very unpredictable who ends up running the place when the supremo dies.
And when a violent man like Putin dies, even more violent men will strive to fill the power vacuum.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ag3ma

Thaluikhain

Elite Member
Legacy
Jan 16, 2010
18,713
3,596
118

Chimpzy

Simian Abomination
Legacy
Escapist +
Apr 3, 2020
12,320
8,597
118
So...does everyone in the US army have to sit through a 3 hour powerpoint presentation about not giving top secret information to net randoms?
Real easy tho. If foreign suitor is hot, and you're not, suspect OPSEC
 

Satinavian

Elite Member
Legacy
Apr 30, 2016
1,728
683
118
They used to make fairly entertaining training films on this topic.
They did it because the method worked. And still works.

Also the guy was a recently hired civilian that only at an earlier stage of his life was in the army, not sure how much of that training he got.
Why a recently hired civilian can get those documents in the first place is more of a question.