2019-2020 coronavirus pandemic (Vaccination 2021 Edition)

lil devils x

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My wife works in the health service - the buzz she's heard is a second wave for the UK in September. One way or another, it might be a way off yet.
That is dependent on the measures people take in your region in the meantime. Hopefully, when you go out and you see people social distancing, wearing masks, not spending as much time indoors breathing each other's air, that is a good way to gauge how soon it is to come back in a lot of regions. If you do not see people doing this, and instead acting like nothing happened, it is likely to be sooner rather than later.

Here it varies by city, town. In my city, currently everyone is still wearing masks everywhere and social distancing in stores. I go the next town over and no one is though, so it may not be enough due to how interconnected everything is here. I just worry that other's people ignorance is going to render those who are actually trying to protect themselves and others efforts futile as they are making it harder on everyone else.
 
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Satinavian

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Well, i certainly did not want to say that the country with the most cases in the whole world and still more than 20000 new cases per day is ready to reopen. I specifically wrote that some contries are not ready for it.

But others are. If the reopening starts gradually and the case numbers continue to be carefully monitored. There certainly still won't be an Oktoberfest this year, even after "reopening".
 
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tstorm823

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We are starting to see spikes again, and will likely result in more lockdowns, as the lower numbers previously predicted are likely to be impacted now due to the unpredictability of the protests and other super spreading events due to lack of PPE and other necessary measures to mitigate spread while reopening. The severe lack of central leadership in the US in this regard though is extremely worrisome, as no matter how bad this gets, it is likely Trump will just let Americans unnecessarily die and pretend it isn't a problem instead of actually listening to Fauci and other experts and resort to proper measures to protect the general public. In his mind, having superspreading campaign events is more important than trying to save the lives of his supporters that attend. If he really wants to be reelected, you would think he would care more about them being alive to do so in November than about him blowing his horn at some rally that really isn't going to impact whether or not people vote for him at this point anyways.
Are you starting to see spikes again, or are these specifically places that never peaked in the first place? (hint, it's the second option.)

There was a story a week or two ago about a California county that opened up too early and needed to close back up because they had a huge spike in cases. The huge spike in cases? It was 4 cases. The case count before then? 1. It's a super rural county. It hadn't gotten hit by the virus yet.

These places have been open because many didn't really see the epidemic yet. The curve is dramatically flatter in North Carolina than somewhere like New York, so flat that it's still on the rising side of the bell curve a month or more after other states peaked.The case rate in Texas is less than half the national average, the death rate is like 20%. These aren't second waves, these are still the first wave.
 

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Are you starting to see spikes again, or are these specifically places that never peaked in the first place? (hint, it's the second option.)

There was a story a week or two ago about a California county that opened up too early and needed to close back up because they had a huge spike in cases. The huge spike in cases? It was 4 cases. The case count before then? 1. It's a super rural county. It hadn't gotten hit by the virus yet.

These places have been open because many didn't really see the epidemic yet. The curve is dramatically flatter in North Carolina than somewhere like New York, so flat that it's still on the rising side of the bell curve a month or more after other states peaked.The case rate in Texas is less than half the national average, the death rate is like 20%. These aren't second waves, these are still the first wave.
The issues with rural counties is where were those cases? if it was someone who worked in a local grocery store, deli, post office and the like, they could have exposed the whole damn town. Who, where, what ,when and how matters in these cases.

DFW has had a few small peaks now, it has been going up and down this entire time as people go out, get sick, people go back home.. it has been just bouncing up and down for a while now. When the news reports a big day people go back into hiding, then get antsy and come back out and then we get another spike and they run back home again. The DFW metroplex didn't have shut downs equally, so it was never fully knocked out, just constant bursts and slowdown.


I think the combination of PPE and exploiting the Virus's cycle would be the best way to proceed from here tbh:

Due to how rural most of Texas is, it should have a much lower case rate I would hope. The lack of public transportation, less multifamily housing than many other regions also means easier containment.
 
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lil devils x

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COVID-19 cases that are considered " Mild" can still have debilitating effects for months, and the long term effects are not yet known. People who have been sick for 80+ days with COVID are still technically classified as "mild" under most statistics. People need to understand that even the young and healthy, can have their life changed by this:

"About 80 percent of infections, according to the World Health Organization, “are mild or asymptomatic,” and patients recover after two weeks, on average. Yet support groups on Slack and Facebook host thousands of people like LeClerc, who say they have been wrestling with serious COVID-19 symptoms for at least a month, if not two or three. Some call themselves “long-termers” or “long-haulers.”

“Before this, I was a fit, healthy 32-year-old,” she said. “Now I’ve been reduced to not being able to stand up in the shower without feeling fatigued. I’ve tried going to the supermarket and I’m in bed for days afterwards. It’s like nothing I’ve ever experienced before.” Despite her best efforts, LeClerc has not been able to get a test, but “every doctor I’ve spoken to says there’s no shadow of a doubt that this has been COVID,” she said. Today is day 80."

"Most have never been admitted to an ICU or gone on a ventilator, so their cases technically count as “mild.” But their lives have nonetheless been flattened by relentless and rolling waves of symptoms that make it hard to concentrate, exercise, or perform simple physical tasks. Most are young. Most were previously fit and healthy. “It is mild relative to dying in a hospital, but this virus has ruined my life,” LeClerc said. “Even reading a book is challenging and exhausting. What small joys other people are experiencing in lockdown—yoga, bread baking—are beyond the realms of possibility for me.”

"Even though the world is consumed by concern over COVID-19, the long-haulers have been largely left out of the narrative and excluded from the figures that define the pandemic. I can pull up an online dashboard that reveals the numbers of confirmed cases, hospitalizations, deaths, and recoveries—but LeClerc falls into none of those categories. She and others are trapped in a statistical limbo, uncounted and thus overlooked. "

"Some have been diagnosed through tests, while others, like LeClerc, have been told by their doctors that they almost certainly have COVID-19. Still, many long-haulers have faced disbelief from friends and medical professionals because they don’t conform to the typical profile of the disease. People have questioned how they could possibly be so sick for so long, or whether they’re just stressed or anxious. “It feels like no one understands,” said Chloe Kaplan from Washington, D.C., who works in education and is on day 78. “I don’t think people are aware of the middle ground, where it knocks you off your feet for weeks, and you neither die nor have a mild case.”

"The notion that most cases are mild and brief bolsters the belief that only the sick and elderly need isolate themselves, and that everyone else can get infected and be done with it. “It establishes a framework in which ‘not hiding’ from the disease looks a manageable and sensible undertaking,” writes Felicity Callard, a geographer at the University of Glasgow, who is on day 77. As the pandemic discourse turns to talk of a second wave, long-haulers who are still grappling with the consequences of the first wave are frustrated. “I’ve been very concerned by friends and family who just aren’t taking this seriously because they think you’re either asymptomatic or dead,” said Hannah Davis, an artist from New York City, who is on day 71. “This middle ground has been hellish.”

More here:
 

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COVID-19 cases that are considered " Mild" can still have debilitating effects for months, and the long term effects are not yet known. People who have been sick for 80+ days with COVID are still technically classified as "mild" under most statistics. People need to understand that even the young and healthy, can have their life changed by this:

"About 80 percent of infections, according to the World Health Organization, “are mild or asymptomatic,” and patients recover after two weeks, on average. Yet support groups on Slack and Facebook host thousands of people like LeClerc, who say they have been wrestling with serious COVID-19 symptoms for at least a month, if not two or three. Some call themselves “long-termers” or “long-haulers.”
You also have to keep in perspective the actual risk from the virus. For the vast majority of people, you have a greater chance of dying in a car accident than you do from the virus. I'm pretty sure these long-termers are much more rare than actual deaths from the young and the healthy. I'm by no means implying to walk around like your bulletproof against the virus, but you shouldn't be fearful of it either. You should do simple, common sense things for yourself (and also for others to limit the spread) like wearing a mask in public, not being in large indoor gatherings, and you can do something proactive like seeing if you're deficient in Vitamin D and taking a supplement if so. The numbers for virus deaths and Vitamin D deficiency is too ridiculous to ignore: 99% of Indonesian deaths had low Vitamin D, 40% of deaths in Stockholm were Somalis when they only make up 1% of the population (dark skin + less sun = Vitamin D deficiency). Vitamin D is important in regulation and suppression of inflammatory cytokine response while also playing a role in the ACE-2 enzyme that the virus utilizes. It's just plain good to have proper Vitamin D levels because it's overall very positive towards your health. In short, don't let the coronavirus control your life any more than the dangers of vehicular accidents.
 

Kwak

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The case numbers are still very low and there is no "second wave" that deserves this name.
USA was at 30-40000 per day at peak, it never got much below 20000 since then and is going up again. (25000 yesterday.)
World cases are 130000 per day and still rising, and have never dipped.
 

Agema

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USA was at 30-40000 per day at peak, it never got much below 20000 since then and is going up again. (25000 yesterday.)
World cases are 130000 per day and still rising, and have never dipped.
World cases will be rising far more than figures: it'll be ripping through dozens of countries with no testing regimes worth the name, and killing tens of thousands of people in which it will probably never be officially recorded. Although we shouldn't be too negative: I have read that there are dirt-poor developing countries that seem to have rapidly managed to generate very effective responses to covid-19 to mitigate spread and deaths. They put many more advanced countries to shame.
 

Satinavian

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USA was at 30-40000 per day at peak, it never got much below 20000 since then and is going up again. (25000 yesterday.)
World cases are 130000 per day and still rising, and have never dipped.
And Germany has only 8000 cases left, with a downward trend even after reopening quite a bit. Austria less than 500 active cases. Japan and South Korea stay below 50 new cases nearly every day.

We were not actually discussing the US for a change. The article wasn't about the US either.
I actually mentioned that the worldwide cases are still on the rise and that the US is among the countries not ready to reopen.
 

lil devils x

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You also have to keep in perspective the actual risk from the virus. For the vast majority of people, you have a greater chance of dying in a car accident than you do from the virus. I'm pretty sure these long-termers are much more rare than actual deaths from the young and the healthy. I'm by no means implying to walk around like your bulletproof against the virus, but you shouldn't be fearful of it either. You should do simple, common sense things for yourself (and also for others to limit the spread) like wearing a mask in public, not being in large indoor gatherings, and you can do something proactive like seeing if you're deficient in Vitamin D and taking a supplement if so. The numbers for virus deaths and Vitamin D deficiency is too ridiculous to ignore: 99% of Indonesian deaths had low Vitamin D, 40% of deaths in Stockholm were Somalis when they only make up 1% of the population (dark skin + less sun = Vitamin D deficiency). Vitamin D is important in regulation and suppression of inflammatory cytokine response while also playing a role in the ACE-2 enzyme that the virus utilizes. It's just plain good to have proper Vitamin D levels because it's overall very positive towards your health. In short, don't let the coronavirus control your life any more than the dangers of vehicular accidents.
Actually, if you read above, the thousands of "long termers" are among the young and healthy cases that are considered "mild", it is rarer to die from the virus in their age range than to have long lasting effects. Many do not realize how common it actually is to have long term impact from respiratory illnesses much less fatal than even this one. I too was " young and healthy"( I am not even middle aged yet, I am petite, fit and I still get carded for Rated R movies) when I contracted a different respiratory illness while working with MSF that does similar damage to your lungs long before this whole mess started. I am not a smoker, and have never had any sort of breathing problem prior to this happening. Being a Pediatrician, I worked daily with sick children and didn't get sick easily prior to this. Although I am considered " recovered", my lungs are permanently damaged. Part of my lungs are considered " dead", and I will have difficulties for the rest of my life. It was necessary to suppress my immune system in order to save my life. My immune system never " bounced back" . I am now considered a temperature regulated asthmatic and my lungs will begin to stop distributing oxygen to my cells properly when I reach 70F (21.1) so my oxygen levels drop very quickly so I have to be in air conditioning almost all the time now. Unlike most asthmatics, due to the the damage that was done, steam hurts me rather than helps me. My biggest triggers are warm air and humidity. I don't think you necessarily understand that many of those who are considered " recovered" are never going to be the same again. Even when you hear from numerous people who have recovered at home, they are telling us they do not know if they will be the same again after this, as they have lingering persistent symptoms. The blood clotting issue is a particularly worrisome one that has seems to have affected everyone from extremely young, active and fit dancers to the elderly, but originally they were not even diagnosing the rising strokes and heart attacks in people in their 20's, 30's and 40's as COVID-19 related deaths due to lack of respiratory symptoms, and sadly some places still have not been testing adequately in order to find out. You have to consider that you can still be having these symptoms EVEN if they do not kill you. You can have clotting, heart, lung, and kidney damage even if you never went to the hospital and recovered at home. Just because it is not recorded as severe illness does not mean that it didn't cause lasting damage. To be clear, some of those with COVID-19 induced strokes and heart attacks never had respiratory symptoms at all.


You have been quick to dismiss COVID-19 as "nothing to worry about" repeatedly, however, you also admitted you were not a Physician. How many COVID-19 patients have you actually spoken to here? I AM a Physician, this is what I do. I, along with thousands of other Physicians and scientists all over the world right now are still very concerned about this for good reason. Taking this lightly could also mean permanent damage that changes your life forever, even among the cases that are logged as "Mild" or " recovered" right now. Even when you listen to the patients who did not require hospitalization, so many of them have very concerning long lasting effects and it is difficult not being able to tell them when or if they will ever " get well" because the truth is, we simply do not know yet.
 
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lil devils x

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World cases will be rising far more than figures: it'll be ripping through dozens of countries with no testing regimes worth the name, and killing tens of thousands of people in which it will probably never be officially recorded. Although we shouldn't be too negative: I have read that there are dirt-poor developing countries that seem to have rapidly managed to generate very effective responses to covid-19 to mitigate spread and deaths. They put many more advanced countries to shame.
I am particularly worried about receiving a spike here too soon, we have over 60% of our ICU beds currently occupied right now, and have been worried about the ever increasing amount of people completely disregarding social distancing and masks in this region. Less people in Dallas's protests wore masks as they did in other regions, while simultaneously having numerous schools here are holding in person graduation ceremonies at the same time so I am worried about an increased spike from that as well on top of the " increased opening up spike" we were already expecting. All I can do is hope that it doesn't get too bad all at once and instead trickles in. Too many Grandparents were willing to risk their lives to see their grandkids graduate as well. The school officials had to know that is what would happen if they held in person ceremonies here. Grandma would rather die than miss her grandbaby graduating. I can only hope it isn't going to be bad. In a few weeks will will know one way or the other.
 
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tstorm823

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USA was at 30-40000 per day at peak, it never got much below 20000 since then and is going up again. (25000 yesterday.)
World cases are 130000 per day and still rising, and have never dipped.
No, cases are not "going up again". For 3 different reasons, any of which would be sufficient to not claim that:

1) There's a weekly cycle of reporting that makes the graphs uneven. Deaths peak on Tuesdays (unless there's a holiday), new cases peak across Thursday and Friday. This isn't a real thing, it's just a consequence of when the reporting gets done. 3 days after the lowest daily number the US has seen, it was back up to 28,000, its just uneven reporting. The current local upward trajectory is only a consequence of that cycle, the number of new cases will go down today and further down tomorrow. Yesterday had fewer cases than a week before, that's what matters.

2) It looks like there's plateau over the last month that the number of cases isn't dropping, but over that month, we've doubled the number of tests being performed nationally. Having slightly decreasing confirmed cases while majorly increasing testing should tell you real cases are going significantly down. It would be inaccurate to claim there are half as many cases, but the truth is almost certainly somewhere between.

3) The number of new cases is increasing in some places because they never peaked there. That's how flattening the curve works. If you slow the infection rate, you peak later. Accurate to say they're going up, not accurate to say they're going up again.
 
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Agema

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No, cases are not "going up again". For 3 different reasons, any of which would be sufficient to not claim that:

1) There's a weekly cycle of reporting that makes the graphs uneven. Deaths peak on Tuesdays (unless there's a holiday), new cases peak across Thursday and Friday. This isn't a real thing, it's just a consequence of when the reporting gets done. 3 days after the lowest daily number the US has seen, it was back up to 28,000, its just uneven reporting. The current local upward trajectory is only a consequence of that cycle, the number of new cases will go down today and further down tomorrow. Yesterday had fewer cases than a week before, that's what matters.

2) It looks like there's plateau over the last month that the number of cases isn't dropping, but over that month, we've doubled the number of tests being performed nationally. Having slightly decreasing confirmed cases while majorly increasing testing should tell you real cases are going significantly down. It would be inaccurate to claim there are half as many cases, but the truth is almost certainly somewhere between.

3) The number of new cases is increasing in some places because they never peaked there. That's how flattening the curve works. If you slow the infection rate, you peak later. Accurate to say they're going up, not accurate to say they're going up again.
Yes, essentially. Look at most countries and you'll see a 5-2 pattern sometimes in new cases (but more prominently in deaths), reflecting the fact that clearly on two days - I presume the weekend - a load of incidents are not put on the official record. They then get counted up and put on the record in the next workday(s).

I might query (3) slightly. In theory, if the lockdown is working properly and reducing 'R' below 1, numbers should decline full stop irrespective of how much spread occurred beforehand. It might be a matter of concern for areas where infections and death are increasing despite heavy measures being in place.
 

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Actually, if you read above, the thousands of "long termers" are among the young and healthy cases that are considered "mild", it is rarer to die from the virus in their age range than to have long lasting effects. Many do not realize how common it actually is to have long term impact from respiratory illnesses much less fatal than even this one. I too was " young and healthy"( I am not even middle aged yet, I am petite, fit and I still get carded for Rated R movies) when I contracted a different respiratory illness while working with MSF that does similar damage to your lungs long before this whole mess started. I am not a smoker, and have never had any sort of breathing problem prior to this happening. Being a Pediatrician, I worked daily with sick children and didn't get sick easily prior to this. Although I am considered " recovered", my lungs are permanently damaged. Part of my lungs are considered " dead", and I will have difficulties for the rest of my life. It was necessary to suppress my immune system in order to save my life. My immune system never " bounced back" . I am now considered a temperature regulated asthmatic and my lungs will begin to stop distributing oxygen to my cells properly when I reach 70F (21.1) so my oxygen levels drop very quickly so I have to be in air conditioning almost all the time now. Unlike most asthmatics, due to the the damage that was done, steam hurts me rather than helps me. My biggest triggers are warm air and humidity. I don't think you necessarily understand that many of those who are considered " recovered" are never going to be the same again. Even when you hear from numerous people who have recovered at home, they are telling us they do not know if they will be the same again after this, as they have lingering persistent symptoms. The blood clotting issue is a particularly worrisome one that has seems to have affected everyone from extremely young, active and fit dancers to the elderly, but originally they were not even diagnosing the rising strokes and heart attacks in people in their 20's, 30's and 40's as COVID-19 related deaths due to lack of respiratory symptoms, and sadly some places still have not been testing adequately in order to find out. You have to consider that you can still be having these symptoms EVEN if they do not kill you. You can have clotting, heart, lung, and kidney damage even if you never went to the hospital and recovered at home. Just because it is not recorded as severe illness does not mean that it didn't cause lasting damage. To be clear, some of those with COVID-19 induced strokes and heart attacks never had respiratory symptoms at all.

You have been quick to dismiss COVID-19 as "nothing to worry about" repeatedly, however, you also admitted you were not a Physician. How many COVID-19 patients have you actually spoken to here? I AM a Physician, this is what I do. I, along with thousands of other Physicians and scientists all over the world right now are still very concerned about this for good reason. Taking this lightly could also mean permanent damage that changes your life forever, even among the cases that are logged as "Mild" or " recovered" right now. Even when you listen to the patients who did not require hospitalization, so many of them have very concerning long lasting effects and it is difficult not being able to tell them when or if they will ever " get well" because the truth is, we simply do not know yet.
Tell me HOW COMMON such things are. You're pointing out bad/worst case scenarios with no context to how common any of it is. The "thousands" of long-termers are people in those online groups that have presumably had symptoms for at least a month. I have friend this year that tested positive for Influenza B in early February and had a cough that lasted over 2 months. Something like that could be what many of these long-termers are experiencing vs the people that literally can't do much of anything for months. There's ~40,000 that die from traffic accidents a year in the US and I'm sure there's a lot of people that have long lasting effects from accidents as well that aren't obviously part of that 40,000 number. I've seen no numbers from the virus that are in any way trending that the virus is something to be more concerned about (for most people) than driving safely.

I don't know why you keep interpreting my risk assessment of the virus as "nothing to worry about". I've never said that and I said taking simple, common sense measures is mainly what's needed along with being the way several successful countries have handled the pandemic. Japan is literally doing what I posted on Facebook to do well over a month back (before the virus even got there). From the numbers we have and the trends they are showing, taking a Vitamin D supplement is far better than having people so scared they are sanitizing everything purchased from stores or not seeing their friends and family.
 

Kwak

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And Germany has only 8000 cases left, with a downward trend even after reopening quite a bit. Austria less than 500 active cases. Japan and South Korea stay below 50 new cases nearly every day.

We were not actually discussing the US for a change. The article wasn't about the US either.
I actually mentioned that the worldwide cases are still on the rise and that the US is among the countries not ready to reopen.
My mistake.
 

Kwak

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. The blood clotting issue is a particularly worrisome one that has seems to have affected everyone from extremely young, active and fit dancers to the elderly, but originally they were not even diagnosing the rising strokes and heart attacks in people in their 20's, 30's and 40's as COVID-19 related deaths due to lack of respiratory symptoms, and sadly some places still have not been testing adequately in order to find out. You have to consider that you can still be having these symptoms EVEN if they do not kill you. You can have clotting, heart, lung, and kidney damage even if you never went to the hospital and recovered at home. Just because it is not recorded as severe illness does not mean that it didn't cause lasting damage. To be clear, some of those with COVID-19 induced strokes and heart attacks never had respiratory symptoms at all.
“If you start to put all of the data together that’s emerging, it turns out that this virus is probably a vasculotropic virus, meaning that it affects the [blood vessels],” says Mandeep Mehra, MD, medical director of the Brigham and Women’s Hospital Heart and Vascular Center.
“[The virus] enters the lung, it destroys the lung tissue, and people start coughing. The destruction of the lung tissue breaks open some blood vessels,” Mehra explains. “Then it starts to infect endothelial cell after endothelial cell, creates a local immune response, and inflames the endothelium.”

A respiratory virus infecting blood cells and circulating through the body is virtually unheard of. Influenza viruses like H1N1 are not known to do this, and the original SARS virus, a sister coronavirus to the current infection, did not spread past the lung. Other types of viruses, such as Ebola or Dengue, can damage endothelial cells, but they are very different from viruses that typically infect the lungs.
The good news is that if Covid-19 is a vascular disease, there are existing drugs that can help protect against endothelial cell damage. In another New England Journal of Medicine paper that looked at nearly 9,000 people with Covid-19, Mehra showed that the use of statins and ACE inhibitors were linked to higher rates of survival. Statins reduce the risk of heart attacks not only by lowering cholesterol or preventing plaque, they also stabilize existing plaque, meaning they’re less likely to rupture if someone is on the drugs.
 

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Yes, The biggest hurdle we have though in treatment is timing, That if patients are not having respiratory symptoms, or only mild respiratory symptoms, they often do not realize they have COVID-19 at all, and do not seek medical assistance until the damage is already done or it is too late. IF they do not seek treatment because they do not realize what is happening, they cannot receive the treatment necessary to save their life. We have a number of methods that have shown promising results, however, they do nothing if people do not recognize what to do quickly enough to act. We have the combined problem of:
1) Patients not seeking help at all or in time to act because they do not realize what is happening to them and think it "minor".
2)Healthcare workers not recognizing that it is COVID-19 unless they have severe respiratory symptoms and are sending people home without being tested or receiving treatment.
3) Healthcare workers at the facility you go to for help not knowing what to do to increase better outcomes due to the virus being so new and patients needing to have educated themselves as much as possible about possible treatments in advance and have more input into their own treatment and may have to actually have to ask for them to check for these things and make suggestions depending on where you are. If you are at a facility where they are still not doing much to treat COVID-19 patients at all, you may have to insist they look for and try such methods or they may not be used at all right now. Normally, it is not a good thing for the patient to insist on certain medications, as the physician should already know the best options available and often patients are misinformed and do not understand why a physician chooses one treatment over another. The problem is when a virus is this new, there is not enough data to provide Physicians and other healthcare workers with a " tried and true" method right now so EVERYTHING is still experimental. Asking questions is important, and many of the patients cannot speak at all and are ill informed about their own treatment causing for further confusion.
 
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tstorm823

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I might query (3) slightly. In theory, if the lockdown is working properly and reducing 'R' below 1, numbers should decline full stop irrespective of how much spread occurred beforehand. It might be a matter of concern for areas where infections and death are increasing despite heavy measures being in place.
That should tell you the lockdown isn't reducing R below 1. The lockdown in combination with increasing numbers of immune people are pushing the R below 1.
 

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The second wave is an inevitable result of these protests. You see thousands of people standing shoulder to shoulder. Some might wear masks but when you ignore numbers and distance there's still risk of infection.

I hope we reached eradication of unknown cases in the general community in Australia because it was packed in Sydney.
 
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Agema

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That should tell you the lockdown isn't reducing R below 1. The lockdown in combination with increasing numbers of immune people are pushing the R below 1.
No, it might just be that people are not sufficiently compliant with lockdown instructions. I severely doubt enough people have immunity to substantially change infection rates at this point. Antibody studies in the UK suggest fewer than 7% of the population have contracted covid-19. In the USA, it will be lower (I'd guess about 3-4% nationally), albeit with hotspots like New York which will be much higher.