Dr. Fauci “not convinced” coronavirus developed naturally

Generals

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If this is the best you can do in terms of wit, it's no wonder you've never won an argument around here. You've already decided China is guilty, damn the facts. You're just what-abouting to distract from your own partisan hackery.
Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. At least the purpose of your empty one liners are clear now. I am not going to stoop down to your level once more, even not to prove a point. This time i'll leave you with your sad self satisfaction of never contributing anything.
 
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gorfias

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Good luck with sanctioning China, when it makes most of the electronics hardware your country's economy relies on, amongst other stuff. Maybe you can get round to it in 5-10 years, after you've enacted a strategic plan to remove all your dependency on Chinese trade goods, and sucked up the pain of inflation from all the additional costs incurred by relocating so much production to other countries.

* * *

I think we humans have a common psychological feature, to seek blame. I remember a case of a woman who ran down a child. In the review, it was shown that she was driving within the speed limit, did nothing wrong, it's just a small kid ran out right in front of her car with her having no time to brake and that was the end of the kid. After the driver was cleared of any wrongdoing, the mother of the child raged at the injustice that this woman could kill her child and not receive any punishment.

Irrational, of course. But also perhaps understandable. There are two factors going on.

Firstly, that this mother was not minding her child properly, leaving him free to run into the road. The element of scapegoating, deflecting blame. There is a desire to blame China in part for the godawful hash we made over it. Doubly painful, to see (even despite their massaged figures) that China did a better job of controlling covid-19 than we did. Blaming China is a way for our countries to distract from their own failings. We can attack their mishandling, but how much force does this have to look at our own dead? How do we avoid the accusation of hypocrisy about China's inadequacies, when our own are plain to see?

Secondly, the idea that there has to be someone responsible for everything. It is normal, when in pain, to want some form of vengeance to make it better. The idea that if someone can be blamed, then something can be controlled and not happen again. Just like in the medieval era, a drought wipes out your crops, it's because your village angered God, or there's a witch. The idea that random, natural, terrifying things happen that up-end our lives is hard to accept. One day, your house, your child, your own life is gone because of a cosmic twitch no-one could do anything about. Psychologically more comforting to think that it's someone's fault, and it can be controlled, and not happen again.

There is another factor that China is a geopolitical enemy, that we do not trust and with many ethical values we do not approve of. And it is far easier to hate and suspect an enemy.

By which I would summarise that we have powerful emotional reasons to think the worst of China. But these emotional reasons cloud our judgement, rather than give clarity. SARS was not man-made, nor MERS, nor a host of 'flu strains over the years. So why suddenly is Covid-19 different... except that it caused orders of magnitude more disruption?

Until there is good evidence otherwise, the base assumption and mostly likely reality should be that this is a natural virus.
We are not going to find good evidence, especially when the powers that be don't want the truth and were attacking people at major social media sites for even talking about all of this.

Actual accidents can happen... and still require sanction. Typically it is tied to some duty and failure of that duty.

And sometimes, a cover up is worse than the offense. Example: https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/03/18/china-covid-19-killed-health-care-workers-worldwide/
 
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Generals

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I would seriously question what the scientific argument is that it came out of a lab. I don't think there is one (or at least, not a good one), and I don't think the scientists who back the lab leak hypothesis do so because of a scientific motivation.
Honestly? So you have plenty of labs (because apparently there is not just one lab which analyses and experiments with coronavirusses) which have coronavirusses in them for analyses and experiments and it seems totally impossible the virus may have escaped by accident? So you believe these labs have a 100% fool proof safety? Mind you most of the scientists who want to keep this possibility open do not say it is the most probable scenario and I have never myself claimed otherwise. I believe I even did exactly the opposite early on when people were even claiming the virus itself was man-made. But that doesn't make it an impossible conspiracy theory.

That's really not how it works.

The point of guilty until proven innocent is based on the principle that a person has caused something to happen through their actions. However, the baseline reality of the world is that lots of things happen without any human intervention - such as viruses mutating into a new form which will infect new creatures, the wind blowing, volcanos erupting, etc. Where something can be reasonably explained through a natural process without human intervention, that should be the basic assumption when considering holding humans responsible (culpable).
The baseline is that buyetyen was bullshitting when he was equating me proposing that a lab leak was a possibility and not just a conspiracy theory with considering people guilty until proven innocent. In no way is leaving the door open to multiple scenarios the same as considering one as the truth until proven otherwise. What I have proposed is that if China wants to get rid of that scenario to be considered a possibility they should just share their data.

So I decided to reply to Buyetyen's irrelevant dismissive oneliner by simplisticly applying it to the scenario he considers as the only possible truth to show how stupid his response was. I mean if proposing that a person may have inadvertently caused the virus to escape from a lab and infect people is "guilty until proven innocent" than claiming it must be an animal which inadvertently contaminated a human is even more so. The only thing you could blame me for is anthropomorphizing an animal.

So all I have noted is that Escapist Tribalism did its job again and you ignored Buyetyen's failed attempt at misrepresenting my point by misusing the concept of "guilty until proven innocent" but couldn't resist jumping on my equally wrong use of it.
 

Trunkage

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Not that new. A lot of countries have already apologized for massacres which were committed by previous generations.
Citation needed. It is incredibly rare for such an apology to happen

Also, you've logic suplex yourself. You've pretty much said they shouldn't worry about it for a few generations
 

Generals

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Citation needed. It is incredibly rare for such an apology to happen

Also, you've logic suplex yourself. You've pretty much said they shouldn't worry about it for a few generations
I am confused... My point should have been sufficiently clear with the following phrase: "If some can apologize and accept scrutiny for something their ancestors have done Xi can accept scrutiny for what he has done."
Here's the thing, apologizing for something your country has done in the past is in my opinion much less necessary than apologizing for what your country is doing right now. And as such if you are going as far as apologizing for something people now aren't even responsible for, than those who are causing enormous suffering now can apologize for it even more. And it's not my fault the countries which have done a lot of self reflection and apologized or expressed deep regrets usually aren't committing atrocities today. (Unlike China)
I mean the Belgian King can hardly express his deepest regrets about Belgium's current colonial abuses because there are none. Yet he did bring up that dark past which he wasn't even responsible for. Do you think China ever reflects on its dark past? No. It is even sending people who dare mentioning it to prison.
 

Trunkage

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We are not going to find good evidence, especially when the powers that be don't want the truth and were attacking people at major social media sites for even talking about all of this.

Actual accidents can happen... and still require sanction. Typically it is tied to some duty and failure of that duty.

And sometimes, a cover up is worse than the offense. Example: https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/03/18/china-covid-19-killed-health-care-workers-worldwide/
I'd agree. We're probably never going to get anything definitive

I also don't blame China for all the deaths of this virus. As I dont blame Trump. Certain governor, like Cuomo, fucked up and killed a bunch of people. That wasn't a Trump policy. Just as Trump's unwillingness to deal with the situation got a couple of hundred thousand people killed shouldn't be blamed on China
 
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Trunkage

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I am confused... My point should have been sufficiently clear with the following phrase: "If some can apologize and accept scrutiny for something their ancestors have done Xi can accept scrutiny for what he has done."
Here's the thing, apologizing for something your country has done in the past is in my opinion much less necessary than apologizing for what your country is doing right now. And as such if you are going as far as apologizing for something people now aren't even responsible for, than those who are causing enormous suffering now can apologize for it even more. And it's not my fault the countries which have done a lot of self reflection and apologized or expressed deep regrets usually aren't committing atrocities today. (Unlike China)
I mean the Belgian King can hardly express his deepest regrets about Belgium's current colonial abuses because there are none. Yet he did bring up that dark past which he wasn't even responsible for. Do you think China ever reflects on its dark past? No. It is even sending people who dare mentioning it to prison.
No. China doesn't reflect on its past.

Nor does any other country, really

And, as I said, you're example is about atrocities a 100 years ago. You're example of the Belgian King is like China apologizing for Covid in 2120. Leopold never apologized. Nor was he really scrutinized.

Covid is not the past. It's very much current

Lastly, you keep pretending this is a massacre like the Chinese army went in killed a bunch of people. That's not what happened at all.

If you want people to apologise
1. Make sure they are blamed for crimes they commited. Not some offense you made up
2. Also would be really cool if they did this deliberately. Lets get better evidence for that.
3. Change the world. Countries dont apologizes. Maybe centuries later.... which is kinda pointless
4. Apologies dont lead to scrutiny. Thats just something you've made up. You don't need an apology to scrutinize them
 

Generals

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No. China doesn't reflect on its past.

Nor does any other country, really

And, as I said, you're example is about atrocities a 100 years ago. You're example of the Belgian King is like China apologizing for Covid in 2120. Leopold never apologized. Nor was he really scrutinized.

Covid is not the past. It's very much current

Lastly, you keep pretending this is a massacre like the Chinese army went in killed a bunch of people. That's not what happened at all.

If you want people to apologise
1. Make sure they are blamed for crimes they commited. Not some offense you made up
2. Also would be really cool if they did this deliberately. Lets get better evidence for that.
3. Change the world. Countries dont apologizes. Maybe centuries later.... which is kinda pointless
4. Apologies dont lead to scrutiny. Thats just something you've made up. You don't need an apology to scrutinize them
Our current King didn't need to apologize in any way. Yet he did accept scrutiny of our past and by acknowledging this you are also encouraging further scrutiny. He could have easily dismissed this as none of the people alive today are responsible for it. But he choose to take more responsibility than was needed. In This case China admitting it fucked up and at the very least not continuing with the lies is the least they can do.
And off course Leopold II didn't apologize. Because he was extremely immoral and lived in a time where colonial abuses were considered normal. Are we honestly going to say that committing genocides and spreading pandemics is normal anno 2021? Have we litterally not gotten any better? Well, Philippe, time to head back to Congo!

Do mind that when I said "aren't comitting atrocities today (unlike China)" I was referring to the genocide against the Ouïghours (or whatever it is spelled in English).

I also do not believe they did this deliberately however they did try to hide it deliberately. They silenced journalists and doctors to ensure news about this new disease wouldn't spread and especially not about how dangerous it was. This all contributed to the slow responsiveness and threat minimisation around the globe. And that they still want to hide Covid related data is just sickening. So no they didn't purposely unleash this disease onto the world, but they took deliberate measures which contributed to the gravity of the pandemic. China could have been transparent from day 1 and warn the world about it, they could have suggested world leaders to stop any travel to and from China. But no, instead, in the early stages they wanted neither their population nor the rest of the world to know how bad things were. They only started to be slightly transaparent once it all got out of control. And for that they are responsible.

Had China done everything a responsible nation should have done and not done everything an irresponsible nation is expected to do than yes, I would agree with you that they shouldn't be held responsible. But as it stands they are responsible for more than 3 million deaths. And to be fair, they are not responible in the same way as Hitler was with the holocaust. It's more of a drunk driver killing someone kind of responsible.
 
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Silvanus

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I also don't blame China for all the deaths of this virus. As I dont blame Trump. Certain governor, like Cuomo, fucked up and killed a bunch of people. That wasn't a Trump policy. Just as Trump's unwillingness to deal with the situation got a couple of hundred thousand people killed shouldn't be blamed on China
Blame and responsibility have become political footballs, utilised by various authorities to distract from their own patent failures. That's not to say there isn't fault and responsibility. But the chance of it being justly apportioned and reckoned with is... next to nil.

The Chinese government does hold a certain amount of responsibility. It chose not to bother to regulate the meat wet markets, even after their implication in the spread of H5N1 and SARS. It chose to lie about the extent of its spread early on.

But then, governments around the world hold responsibility for their shockingly inept responses: failing to control borders; failing to lockdown in a timely manner; failing to build consistent rules, or enforce them, or communicate them properly; failing to support workers working from home. I say "failing", but mostly it was a conscious decision, to place short-term business profit over public health and long-term planning and just hope for the best.

Had the Chinese government made their (massive) mistakes, but governments around the world had responded responsibly, then we'd still have the coronavirus... but it needn't have been a global pandemic, nearing two years long. So it would be rank hypocrisy for governments around the world to simply point fingers at China and wash their own hands. They turned this into the global shitshow it became.

The one totally consistent factor is prioritisation on protecting corporate profit. Refusal to regulate the meat markets... so that they can stay open and make money. Hesitation to lock-down... so that businesses can remain open. Hesitation to control borders... to protect tourism income. Refusal to adequately support working-from-home... because employers resist it and lobby against it. Massaging figures... to protect the government's image.

Or in the case of complete deniers like Bolsonaro, just utter insanity.
 
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Kwak

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I also do not believe they did this deliberately however they did try to hide it deliberately. They silenced journalists and doctors to ensure news about this new disease wouldn't spread and especially not about how dangerous it was. This all contributed to the slow responsiveness and threat minimisation around the globe. And that they still want to hide Covid related data is just sickening. So no they didn't purposely unleash this disease onto the world, but they took deliberate measures which contributed to the gravity of the pandemic. China could have been transparent from day 1 and warn the world about it, they could have suggested world leaders to stop any travel to and from China. But no, instead, in the early stages they wanted neither their population nor the rest of the world to know how bad things were. They only started to be slightly transaparent once it all got out of control. And for that they are responsible.
They acknowledged some of that.
 

Agema

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Honestly? So you have plenty of labs (because apparently there is not just one lab which analyses and experiments with coronavirusses) which have coronavirusses in them for analyses and experiments and it seems totally impossible the virus may have escaped by accident?
"There's a virus research institute in Wuhan" is not a scientific argument.
 
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Generals

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"There's a virus research institute in Wuhan" is not a scientific argument.
Oh please with the dishonesty. You know damn well that's not the only reason why some posit it is a possibility.
Off course the first one is indeed that there are labs researching coronavirusses in the same city as where the outbreak was initially recorded.
Secondly there are intelligence records which suggests the safety protocols in the P4 lab weren't as strong as one would expect in such a lab.
Thirdly recently we have also heard not too long before the outbreak was recorded sick laborants went to the hospital.
And fourth China's secrecy just reinforces suspicion.
Off course "1" alone is not enough (although people/scientists did directly jump on the wet market as an easy suspect and I can't recall a lot of people complaining about how quickly people were to consider that one as the source of the outbreak)
"2" is clearly not enough. It's actually a bit like the wet market, which people immediately pointed to because of the assumed crappy hygiene.
"3" alone should be dismissed as coincidence.
However all three together start to raise suspicion and 4 simply reinforces that. This suspicion is far from conclusive and as mentioned most people still do not consider it as the most probable scenario. But there is just about enough smoke to keep the possibility open. It would be very easy for China to erase that suspicion but they won't.



"Yes, and it's called the "natural origin" theory.
This argues the virus spread naturally from animals, without the involvement of any scientists or laboratories.
Supporters of the natural origin hypothesis say Covid-19 emerged in bats and then jumped to humans, most likely through another animal, or "intermediary host"."

"This hypothesis was widely accepted at the start of the pandemic, but as time has worn on, scientists have not found a virus in either bats or another animal that matches the genetic make-up of Covid-19, casting doubt over the theory."

Science is also the ability to question a hypothesis and reopening once ignored hypotheses.

Edit for more info:


"Malgré ces consignes drastiques, l'hypothèse d'une fuite du virus depuis un laboratoire à Wuhan reste crédible aux yeux d'Etienne Decroly, directeur de recherche au CNRS à l'université Aix-Marseille. "Je crois que les autorités chinoises sont extrêmement rigoureuses sur les normes de sécurité, mais il faut se rappeler que ce sont des virus respiratoires, et donc qu'ils persistent dans l'air un certain temps, explique-t-il. On a tous vu que, malgré le port du masque, on peut quand même se contaminer. Donc dans un laboratoire de type P3, où l'on n'a pas de scaphandre, il y a des possibilités qu'il y ait des contaminations." Dans l'histoire de la virologie, ce type de contamination s'est d'ailleurs déjà produit. En 2004, le virus responsable du Sras s'était échappé de l'Institut de virologie de Pékin, classé P3. Cinq cadres de l'Institut, accusés "d'erreurs et de manquements", avaient alors été sanctionnés par Pékin."

A leak already happened once twice in a lab in Beijing... But I guess laboratory accidents are just conspiracy theories.

 
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Generals

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They acknowledged some of that.
In probably the most half-assed way: "Beijing's investigators now conclude that Wuhan authorities acted "inadequately" when they reprimanded the late doctor and failed to follow "proper law enforcement procedure." They did not, however, explain what the correct response should be."
In a way Beijing is not taken any responsibility and shifting all the blame on Wuhan authorities. And this is just about how one whistleblower was treated.
 

Agema

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Oh please with the dishonesty. You know damn well that's not the only reason why some posit it is a possibility.
Off course the first one is indeed that there are labs researching coronavirusses in the same city as where the outbreak was initially recorded.
Secondly there are intelligence records which suggests the safety protocols in the P4 lab weren't as strong as one would expect in such a lab.
Thirdly recently we have also heard not too long before the outbreak was recorded sick laborants went to the hospital.
And fourth China's secrecy just reinforces suspicion.
I think you're missing the point.

None of this is really "positive" evidence: it's just suspicion, much at the level of rumour. I understand entirely why people are suspicious. But the reality is that currently there is no evidence of significant substance.
 

Generals

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I think you're missing the point.

None of this is really "positive" evidence: it's just suspicion, much at the level of rumour. I understand entirely why people are suspicious. But the reality is that currently there is no evidence of significant substance.
I think you missed my point from the start. I have never said that this hypothesis had a significant amount of supporting evidence. But that doesn't dismiss the possibility entirely now does it? And as other hypotheses have failed to be proven due to a lack of evidence as well you most definitely cannot just throw away this possibility. Remember that this all started because I refused to consider this hypothesis as a conspiracy theory. I did not say it was the most or even highly probable scenario. But there is a huge gap between a very probable scenario with substantial evidence and a baseless "conspiracy theory".
And there is an additional problem with the notion one would require substantial positive evidence not to throw this hypothesis in the garbage bin: since China is hell bent on minimizing its responsibility and they control the information they could easily hide it from the WHO. Essentially China would get to decide what scientists are allowed to consider as possible or not. Sounds wrong on many levels. And that is why because it is a possibility and we have yet to provide sufficient evidence for the other scenarios this one cannot be dismissed. And just to be 100% sure my words don't get twisted: "not being dismissed' =/= "to be considered as fact".
 

Trunkage

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Our current King didn't need to apologize in any way. Yet he did accept scrutiny of our past and by acknowledging this you are also encouraging further scrutiny. He could have easily dismissed this as none of the people alive today are responsible for it. But he choose to take more responsibility than was needed. In This case China admitting it fucked up and at the very least not continuing with the lies is the least they can do.
And off course Leopold II didn't apologize. Because he was extremely immoral and lived in a time where colonial abuses were considered normal. Are we honestly going to say that committing genocides and spreading pandemics is normal anno 2021? Have we litterally not gotten any better? Well, Philippe, time to head back to Congo!

Do mind that when I said "aren't comitting atrocities today (unlike China)" I was referring to the genocide against the Ouïghours (or whatever it is spelled in English).

I also do not believe they did this deliberately however they did try to hide it deliberately. They silenced journalists and doctors to ensure news about this new disease wouldn't spread and especially not about how dangerous it was. This all contributed to the slow responsiveness and threat minimisation around the globe. And that they still want to hide Covid related data is just sickening. So no they didn't purposely unleash this disease onto the world, but they took deliberate measures which contributed to the gravity of the pandemic. China could have been transparent from day 1 and warn the world about it, they could have suggested world leaders to stop any travel to and from China. But no, instead, in the early stages they wanted neither their population nor the rest of the world to know how bad things were. They only started to be slightly transaparent once it all got out of control. And for that they are responsible.

Had China done everything a responsible nation should have done and not done everything an irresponsible nation is expected to do than yes, I would agree with you that they shouldn't be held responsible. But as it stands they are responsible for more than 3 million deaths. And to be fair, they are not responible in the same way as Hitler was with the holocaust. It's more of a drunk driver killing someone kind of responsible.
Well, since you completely deliberately misunderstand what I said, how about I say it this way:

China thinks its the HERO of this situation. It thinks it saved so many lives. It thinks it was responsible. Even the Chinese people who acknowledge that they mishandled the initial outbreak think that China stepped up and TOOK responsibility and showed the world how to deal with COVID. They dont want to apologise. They want thanks for a world that should be gracious to the Chinese leadership
 

Gordon_4

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I would seriously question what the scientific argument is that it came out of a lab. I don't think there is one (or at least, not a good one), and I don't think the scientists who back the lab leak hypothesis do so because of a scientific motivation.
I don’t think it being from a real life Umbrella Corp lab in Wuhan is impossible, but I do think that anyone betting on that evidence coming from a foreign inspection and not from the CIA or SIS sweating the shit out of every Chinese based asset they have and it subsequently seeing the light of day is kidding themselves. Assuming of course it’s release was malicious and not preceded by words to the effect of “Hold my beer and watch this”.

I’m personally putting five bucks on the wet markets and the invisible, often fickle fingers of fate giving us a timely reminder to not get to big for our boots.
 

Thaluikhain

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Here's the thing, apologizing for something your country has done in the past is in my opinion much less necessary than apologizing for what your country is doing right now. And as such if you are going as far as apologizing for something people now aren't even responsible for, than those who are causing enormous suffering now can apologize for it even more.
Getting a bit off-topic, but that's not how it works. Countries that are apologising for stuff in the long past aren't doing so because they've apologised for everything that matters and gone the extra step, they are doing so because it doesn't cost them anything. Apologising for something big and going on now is another different matter.

Can't speak for Belgium, but a few years ago, the UK retroactively pardoned Turing for being gay, some generations after he was driven to suicide and some years after everyone involved was dead. They did not, however, think it important to much mention the UK's response (or lack of) to the AIDS crisis amongst the gay community, the government washing their hands of it and blaming gay people. Because some of the people who were responsible for that are still alive, and some still in office, generally pretending to be supporters of LGBT rights.

Now, you can say that (if guilty), China should apologise, that, politics aside, it would be the right thing to do. Which, ok, fair enough. But this is not a thing countries do, and you are holding China to a standard that the US, UK, Australia et al don't get held to. Again, though, you can argue they should.
 

Dwarvenhobble

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I would seriously question what the scientific argument is that it came out of a lab. I don't think there is one (or at least, not a good one), and I don't think the scientists who back the lab leak hypothesis do so because of a scientific motivation.
Ok the 4possible theories:

W) A Bat in a remote region bit a person who then travelled to Wuhan and fell ill spreading the virus.

X) A Bat bit a Pangolin and before becoming badly ill or dying the Pangolin was captured in the wild and was sold at a "Wet Market" and eaten by a person or persons who then fell ill and spread the virus

Y) The virus was being researched at the lab and escaped.

Z) Imported meat from another country was infected and people ate it and it caused the outbreak

(Note: I'm ignoring the more insane theory Covid was all around us for years and then magically turned infectious because the global temperature rose 0.1°C or whatever the claim is)

Evidence:
  • 3 Wuhan Lab workers falling ill with something that had similar symptoms to Covid-19 in November 2019
  • A Viral research institute that had a bet expert working there, the same one who had previously done expeditions to remote caves and areas with a team to collect samples from bats
  • A virus with a tolerance of 65°C (149°Freedoms)
  • Official correspondence with other institutions said that Wuhan wasn't using the correct level of biosafety kit
For W to be true we'd firstly need a Patient 0 who could have been shown to travel from an area with said bats to Wuhan and for some reason decided not to get treatment despite being bitted by a bat before this.

For X to be true We'd have to assume the virus had crossed the initial species gap to pangolin then crossed it again to human / humans and that the people who bought the Pangolin either didn't cook it properly and ate it somewhat raw or were bitten by it and the virus crossed the species barrier a 2nd time there

For Y to be true we'd need a Lab, a connection to bats, people infected, lax lab safety standard

For Z to be true it would have had to be a single batch only and no batches have ever also been infected from said plant and the people who ate it would have to eat it without properly cooking it

So far the lab leak theory has more evidence supporting it and doesn't quite have the holes others seem to have