David Chase himself confirmed it. Tony died when the screen went black:
"Because the scene I had in my mind was not that scene. Nor did I think of cutting to black. I had a scene in which Tony comes back from a meeting in New York in his car. At the beginning of every show, he came from New York into New Jersey, and the last scene could be him coming from New Jersey back into New York for a meeting at which he was going to be killed. Yeah. But I think I had this notion—I was driving on Ocean Park Boulevard near the airport and I saw a little restaurant. It was kind of like a shack that served breakfast. And for some reason I thought, “Tony should get it in a place like that.” Why? I don’t know. That was, like, two years before."
Fitting this gets revealed on my birthday. But yeah to anyone who actually watched and fully payed attention to this show and all the details it has. This was already a forgone conclusion. So many signs in the final season pointing out that Tony is gonna get whacked.
In my case I was 70% certain it was the case. The remaining 30% him living is because in the context of:
"Even if he did survive, his downfall was already assured and he was already on the road to getting arrested and indicted with one of his own men, Carlo, turning informant and will testify against Tony in court"
But as revealed, he was whacked before any of that could happen. The only thing left lingering is why he was whacked. Prominent theory is he's whacked on orders from New York under that now new boss Butchie. Other is Paulie ordered him to be whacked. Among other things.
So there we go. Tony Soprano has died in the finale.
‘Awards Chatter’ Podcast: ‘Sopranos’ Creator David Chase Finally Reveals What Happened to Tony (Exclusive)
Chase opens up about what inspired that series and its new prequel, how his feelings about film versus TV have evolved over the years and, in a major disclosure, what really happened to Tony Soprano at the end of the series finale.
www.hollywoodreporter.com
"Because the scene I had in my mind was not that scene. Nor did I think of cutting to black. I had a scene in which Tony comes back from a meeting in New York in his car. At the beginning of every show, he came from New York into New Jersey, and the last scene could be him coming from New Jersey back into New York for a meeting at which he was going to be killed. Yeah. But I think I had this notion—I was driving on Ocean Park Boulevard near the airport and I saw a little restaurant. It was kind of like a shack that served breakfast. And for some reason I thought, “Tony should get it in a place like that.” Why? I don’t know. That was, like, two years before."
Fitting this gets revealed on my birthday. But yeah to anyone who actually watched and fully payed attention to this show and all the details it has. This was already a forgone conclusion. So many signs in the final season pointing out that Tony is gonna get whacked.
In my case I was 70% certain it was the case. The remaining 30% him living is because in the context of:
"Even if he did survive, his downfall was already assured and he was already on the road to getting arrested and indicted with one of his own men, Carlo, turning informant and will testify against Tony in court"
But as revealed, he was whacked before any of that could happen. The only thing left lingering is why he was whacked. Prominent theory is he's whacked on orders from New York under that now new boss Butchie. Other is Paulie ordered him to be whacked. Among other things.
So there we go. Tony Soprano has died in the finale.