Ukraine

Godzillarich(aka tf2godz)

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You know I understand that Russia is doing badly but HOLY SHIT!

Australia took one look at The clussterfuck that is the Ukraine invasion was and went, "This seems like a good idea."
 

Agema

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Well... It was not that easy to predict. Putin expected Ukraine to fall Afghanistan style, with little to no resistance and a lot more support from Russian speaking Ukrainians.
But yeah, it seems the war is lost for Russia and with how badly it is going I don't see Ukraine giving more than Neutrality and maybe, just maybe, Crimea. Which is much less than Putin had wanted but sufficient to somewhat save face in Russia.
I dread to think what the mood is like in the Kremlin.

Outright defeat is unthinkable - it would be too much of a humiliation. It needs some sort of positive result, but the clock is ticking and their forces seem to have ground to halt. I suspect the masses of bombing is a desperation tactic born of both military frustration and to see if Ukraine's will can be broken before Russia has to accept the price is too high.

I'm inclined to think that Ukraine firmly agreeing not to join NATO (and maybe the EU) is a minimal requirement. Formal concession of Crimea next up that Ukraine might agree to, and anything else is a bonus for Russia. But after this atrocity, Russia's lost Ukraine from its sphere of influence to the West for generations unless it can take it over in entirety.
 

Seanchaidh

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It has been claimed that the Azov Regiment was slaughtered in Mariupol.

 

Satinavian

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I dread to think what the mood is like in the Kremlin.
Well aside from the various demotions and house arrests, we have mnister Tschubai suddenly retiring and moving to Turkey, an order for parliament members of the ruling party to not leave the country and the defense mininster Schoigu seems to have not appeared in public for now close to two weeks.
 

Silvanus

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The treaty is, however, extraordinarily alarming for Australia and a clear statement of intent of China's ambitions in power projection. Some snippets:

China may, on request, “send police, police, military personnel and other law enforcement and armed forces to Solomon Islands” in circumstances ranging from maintaining social order to unspecified “other tasks agreed upon by the Parties”.

"relevant forces of China can be used to protect the safety of Chinese personnel and major projects in Solomon Islands."

And that "without the written consent of the other party, neither party shall disclose the cooperation information to a third party." The parties here are the Chinese and Solomon Islands government: the Solomon Islands government cannot even inform its own people of what it lets China do.

Thus this isn't just a naval base, it's potentially a far wider military presence. Not only that, but it creates a perfect circumstance for China to turn the Solomons into a puppet state, needing just one corrupt president willing to sign away his country's sovereignty. That said, I think it's a "first draft": something that will be heavily watered down if passed at all. Threatening to invade the Solomons is however as dumb as it gets: there's no chance of a happy ending from that.
By contrast, Russia has stated that the possibility of NATO encroachment via Ukraine is a justification for intervention, when there were no NATO or US army bases in Ukraine. The only foreign government that had military bases on Ukrainian land was... Russia. And it used them to launch attacks on the rest of Ukraine in 2014.
 

Agema

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It has been claimed that the Azov Regiment was slaughtered in Mariupol.
It's only in tankie land they can cheer fascists fighting for a democratic state losing to fascists fighting for an authoritarian regime.
 
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Seanchaidh

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We've destroyed the weapons of mass destruction we were here to stop... We cannot show them to you, just believe that we did it!
I'm not posting pictures of corpses here.

It's only in tankie land they can cheer fascists fighting for a democratic state losing to fascists fighting for an authoritarian regime.
Which one of them is the democratic state?
 

EvilRoy

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Which one of them is the democratic state?
Wait is that seriously what this is about? You feel Ukraine doesn't meet your standard for a democracy and that's why you're willing to sacrifice the country wholesale on the altar of reducing US influence? Even knowing that by exposing Russia's weakness this war has only strengthened western influence?
 

Seanchaidh

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Wait is that seriously what this is about? You feel Ukraine doesn't meet your standard for a democracy and that's why you're willing to sacrifice the country wholesale on the altar of reducing US influence? Even knowing that by exposing Russia's weakness this war has only strengthened western influence?
Your avatar perfectly matches your post.
 

XsjadoBlayde

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On Thursday afternoon, the head of the radiation, chemical, and biological defense department of the Russian Armed Forces dropped some bombshell news: Hunter Biden had funded the Pentagon’s “military-biological program” in Ukraine.

Igor Kirillov backed up his explosive claim with a color-coded spider diagram featuring pictures of Biden alongside a smiling George Soros and links to the Democrat Party and multiple U.S. government departments. What he didn’t back it up with was any actual evidence.

But just like the wider “U.S.-funded biolabs in Ukraine” conspiracy, Kirillov and the Kremlin don’t need facts, because they know that simply mentioning Hunter Biden’s name in the same sentence as “biolabs” would get them exactly what they wanted.

And just hours later, Fox News’ top-rated host Tucker Carlson gave it to them:


In the days following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a consensus emerged outside of Russia: The Kremlin had lost the information war.

This thesis took hold because Russia’s initial attempts to convince the world it had a valid reason for invading a sovereign country failed spectacularly, as open-source researchers and journalists on the front line quickly and easily debunked fake videos and the obvious false flag operations the Kremlin was using as pretexts for war.


Add the sophisticated and slick use of social media by Ukrainian President Vlodomyr Zelenskyy and other Ukrainian officials, plus viral stories of Ukrainians facing down Russian forces, and it’s easy to see why people might have believed the information war had been won.

But Russia has been in this game for longer than most, and there were indications that measures the Kremlin had put in place years ago were beginning to reap rewards. For example, this viral map produced by a German media outlet secretly backed by the Kremlin was shared widely among progressives and served to distract those viewing it from the horrors unfolding in Ukraine by flagging other conflicts happening around the globe.


What the Kremlin was waiting for was a narrative that would take hold not inside its own country, but globally, and in the biolabs conspiracy, it found the perfect one.

The conspiracy broadly claims that the U.S. is helping fund biolabs inside Ukraine (which is true) and that those laboratories are developing biological or chemical weapons that will be used against Russia (which is not true). Variations of the theory claim Ukraine was behind COVID-19, and that perennial right-wing bogey figures like Hillary Clinton and Anthony Fauci are involved.

As the biolabs conspiracy took hold earlier this month, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki blamed Moscow and Beijing for spreading the false narrative—but in reality, the conspiracy was homegrown.

Claims that the U.S. has been funding biolabs to develop chemical or biological weapons around the world have been circulating for years, but the Ukraine conspiracy theory was born on Feb. 14 on the far-right Christian social network Gab, when a user posted a map of Ukraine, claiming to show the locations of U.S.-funded biolabs.


The map, first reported by NBC, attracted just three comments, but on the day the invasion began, the same image was shared by an anonymous Twitter account called @WarClandestine, which had previously shared QAnon conspiracy theories.


A thread by that account claiming to have uncovered the “real” reason why Russian President Vladimir Putin was invading Ukraine garnered huge attention, and though Twitter subsequently removed the account, the damage was done.


A month later, right wing communities still view @WarClandestine’s thread as verifiable proof that the conspiracy is real, and it has pervaded conspiracy theory communities like QAnon, as well as the wider pro-Trump MAGA world typified by Carlson’s credulous section on Thursday night’s show.


Today, the biolabs story is everywhere. Along with Carlson’s unending willingness to give airtime to conspiracy theories and Kremlin propaganda, new research by Brookings this week showed that it is being boosted by hugely popular right-wing U.S. podcasts host including Steve Bannon, Dan Bongino, and Charlie Kirk.

These popular figures are also boosting this conspiracy on their social media channels and those platforms are struggling to control it.

New research from the Center for Countering Digital Hate (CCDH) showed that on Facebook, up to 80% of the posts sharing the bioweapons conspiracy have not been labeled to inform readers that the posts are missing context or contain partly or entirely false information.

The bioweapons conspiracy has become canon among many right-wing communities, who are using it as a way to justify their defense of Putin, who has committed war crimes against the Ukrainian people.

The conspiracy has also taken hold in many communities outside of the U.S., as exemplified by Matthew from Derby, who spoke to TalkRadio in the U.K. this week:


The conspiracy may not have originated in the Kremlin’s disinformation department, but they have done everything in their power to keep it in the news.


As well as pushing out this narrative via its army of cyber trolls, the government’s highest-profile figures continue to push the conspiracy at every opportunity to help convince their own citizens that the war is justified.

“The Pentagon has placed biolabs all along the Russian border,” Sergei Lavrov said in an interview earlier this week. “Ukraine is their biggest project. It's a clear threat to international peace and security.”

Experts also worry that the Kremlin could be boosting this narrative as a pretext to use chemical weapons inside Ukraine.

Last week the Russian Defense Ministry released documents that claimed to prove that the U.S. was training migratory birds to carry bioweapons from Ukraine into Russia.


And now it’s claiming that Hunter Biden is involved, knowing full well that use of his name will result in another cycle of credulous reporting from America’s hugely influential right-wing media machine.

On Thursday night, the conspiracy came full circle when the person who shared the original Twitter thread that caused the biolabs conspiracy to explode told his 51,000 Telegram followers that Carlson covering the story was helping spread the conspiracy among the ”normies.”

“Say what you want, but the most-watched news show in America is talking about Hunter Biden’s connection to biolab funding in Ukraine via Rosemont Seneca,” he wrote on his Telegram channel. “The normies are being herded on a collision course with the truth. They are on the cusp of piecing it all together. Make no mistake, this is culminating into a mass realization the likes of which the world has never seen.”
 
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EvilRoy

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Your avatar perfectly matches your post.
I'm just trying to figure out what the hell your game is in this whole thing. You keep insisting that this is all the wests fault, and in the process you keep effectively denying Ukraine any agency - claiming that the right course of action is for them to fully submit to Russian rule and blame the west for it, although you refuse to say that part out loud for some reason. That position makes sense if the person stating it doesn't think Ukraine should have rights, but it doesn't really work otherwise.
 
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Silvanus

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Yep. It is exactly this uncomplicated. :rolleyes:
Sorry, does any of the additional context change the fact that Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, utilising those bases? Because that's the sole bit that's relevant to that particular post.
 
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Silvanus

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Which one of them is the democratic state?
The one that holds elections in which more than one party has a chance of winning. The one in which the leader of the opposition wasn't just sentenced for 9 years on false charges. The one in which reporters are not hunted down and summarily executed. The one in which the media is not wholly controlled by the one-party state.

Fucking obviously.
 
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