Ukraine

ralfy

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Yes, naturally. Getting involved in conflict is related to a country's power and global reach. Countries seek to control the environment around them: securing trade, resources, protecting allies, etc. As a general rule, the more of the world that a country is involved with the more it risks being drawn into conflict, and the more powerful it is, the more it has the ability to intervene militarily.

As a result, just because the USA is the country most involved in conflict, it does not follow that US nonintervention would necessarily result in less conflict, because any vacuum will be filled by other states' power. For instance, Russia could be "given" Ukraine, but it would not stop there. Once Ukraine were secure in its sphere, it would move on to new countries to spread its influence over, by hook or by crook. Without US military deterrent in the Pacific, China would almost certainly aggressively start to assert dominance over the Far East, with its military a key component.

One could even consider that the presence of a supreme global power like the USA may actually reduce conflict globally, because it forces potential belligerent minnows to consider the ramifications of the supreme power's disapproval. The cost of this is that supreme power has to get its hands dirty instead; of course, it also tends to benefit the supreme power, who can pressurise countries to do things the way that they want.



Yes, we supported people to campaign effectively and win a democratic election. How naughty of us! Russia, meanwhile, has been happy to support just stuffing the ballot boxes.

Let's have a look at some of what Russia's been up to in Ukraine:

Do you think Russia has a right to subjugate Ukraine, and that the Ukrainian people don't merit rights and self-determination? If the Ukrainians don't merit these, why should the Balts, Poles, Georgians, Kazakhs have them either? Where would Russia stop? Why would it stop? Would the world be a better place if we just let countries like Russia take what they wanted? Do you just think weak nations should be sacrified and thrown to wolves, just so long as we aren't remotely wolf-like?
You need to connect the first part of your post to your second part, and then you will understand my argument. Here's the gist:

After 1991, both Russia and Ukraine were weak, wracked by internal conflict, together with the other Republics. What did the U.S. do in response to that? First, it suggested "shock therapy" via free market capitalism, which only made matters worse, and led to the downfall of democracy plus the continued strength of the oligarchs. Later, we would find out that various U.S. politicians and their cronies were making deals with the same oligarchs, which in turn set up corrupt politicians like Putin, with the intention of government working for them until Putin went againt them.

What happened a few years later? After the resurgence of U.S. military adventurism via Iraq it set its sights on Eastern Europe, with Clinton using NATO enlargement as part of electioneering and thus gain victory over Dole. Keenan, who came up with the policy of containment decades earlier, warned the government that if it uses NATO for encirclement and continues to meddle in both Ukraine and Russia, then war will break out, if not worse.

Years after that, what happened? The U.S. began to meddle in Ukraine for over a decade, culminating in Nuland and others engaging in manipulation, and leading to regime change and thus control of Ukraine. From there came manipulation from EU to take advantage of natural resources and NATO considering membership. Put simply, the West was wrestling Ukraine away from Russia, and Russia was seeing that as a sign of belligerence, with more countries joining NATO and encircling Russia. Why's this not fake news? Because the U.S. was doing the SAME THING in Asia, with over 400 military installations out of what is now 900 to encircle China.

Why is the U.S. doing this? Since WW2 it has engaged in war after war, accumulating incredible levels of debt to pay for what is the most expensive military in the world, and with over 900 military installations, onerous foreign policies, and even financial aid with strings attached aka structural adjustment to work with all sorts of regimes worldwide plus cause the fall of governments perceived as a threat through destabilization and even intervention. For example, in the Middle East it arms Israel but also Egypt and Saudi Arabia. It manipulated Iraq to make it attack Iran, and then attacked it in turn when its former client Saddam went out of control and was later selling oil in exchange for euros. It made deals with Iran after its client the Shah of Iran with his dreaded SAVAK went out of power, and then went against it when it tried to form its own oil bourse, and caused countries like Libya to fall apart because it tried to do the same. The basis of terror groups? "Freedom fighters" funded by the U.S., recruited by U.S. ally Saudi Arabia, and trained by U.S. ally Pakistan. Over at the Americas was support for all sorts of banana republics plus groups like the Contras and training of military officials via the School of the Americas. Over at Asia were deals and support for the likes of Suharto and Marcos, and then later deals made with Communist China.

The purpose is to keep many countries weak and thus dependent on the dollar, which in turn allows the U.S. to continue for decades of heavy borrowing and spending, and not just for financial gambling and consumer spending but for the same military used to keep that dollar propped up. Meanwhile, the same U.S. rich which control 70 pct of wealth in the U.S. and the bulk of U.S. media, pharma, food processing, and even the defense industry profit from the same regime change. And there's no "we're fighting for freedom and democracy" ilk here. It's all for profit and realpolitik.

That's why when Zelensky imagined Ukraine as a "big Israel," he received praises from the neocon-neolib Atlantic Council. From the liberals and chicken hawks who "stan for Palestinians"? Crickets. Same when Zelensky announced that he was making deals with BlackRock and others to "manage" the Ukrainian economy. Also, when the NYT reported that the defense industry was estatic over increased sales and opportunities to use Ukraine and Russia to "beta test" new weapons, which isn't surprising because that's the same NYT that for over a decade wanted to bomb Iran, Iran, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, and more, ljust like the obedient chicken hawks they are.

So, what do we have left? The view that "but Ruzzia invaded Ukraine, end of story" coupled it "I was against the invasion of Iraq, you know." It's a blinkered view that completely ignores the context of that invasion and instead replaces it with "Ruzzia wants to form an empire" and thus must be stopped with the same war machine that the U.S. employed to attack many other countries and foreign and economic policies that coerced and manipulated others across decades.

So why should you and others be surprised by the fact that more of these countries are now answering back? Is it because you live in a world where you think the U.S., as the sole superpower, has for its intention, and has succeeded, in reducing global conflict? If so, then you're talking about another planet.
 

ralfy

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Which you are. Because you are the one who keeps repeating that usa=russia ("we have two russia or two usa"). You're making the equivalence between growing spheres of influence and military territorial conquest, between democratic regimes (electoral government changes and free press) and dictatorships (forbidden dissenting media, jailed/murdered political rivals, regime permanence), between the very content of the proposed models (a democracy decent enough to be reproached being "woke/pc" in the eyes of fascists, and a nationalist homophobic regime that is supported by all the world's totalitarianisms).

By doing so, you simply normalize the russian regime and its war of annexation. And yes, you have to be reminded what this regime means, even if you do not give a damn about the massacre of the ukrainian population and its perpetrator.
Russia and the U.S. are two military powers employing realpolitik. I'm sure you can explain why for Russia easily but it appears that you're a complete ignoramus concerning the U.S.

Do I have to repost several links again to prove that? Do you need further details?
 

ralfy

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Can you explain the bit about President Carter again? I missed it the first 48 times.
Carter argued that the U.S. is the most warlike in modern history given historical records. The irony is Carter is also part of the problem:

 

ralfy

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Russia literally attacked and seized territory from Ukraine already 8 years ago.



"They have lots of stuff already so therefore they must not be trying to get more stuff"? That's what you're going with? Someone should have told that to... uhrm, all the European empires. And the US.

Good lord but this is weak.
Ukraine was manipulated by the U.S. via regime change, and is part of NATO encirclement which Russia considered a threat:


That's the same U.S. that's been doing the same in Asia:


That's why Russia attacked Ukraine. The claim that it wants to form an empire is moronic neocon shrillery.
 

ralfy

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You believe that the trend towards growing trade with China and India started a few weeks ago?



In each case, you haven't demonstrated any legitimate connection. You've vomited the same few links over and over and over again-- while failing to understand what they say (Kennan), or making arguments that aren't supported by them ("the global south supports invasion").

Then you've endlessly waffled about how countries in the global south have been shifting trade away from the US. And somehow equated the Russian invasion with that global trend, insinuating its all part of the same attitude shift, despite the fact that the global south overwhelmingly condemns the invasion-- and despite the fact the invasion has fuck all to do with why Turkey wants to trade more with China. And despite the fact Russia is in the global North, a successor to a plundering European empire just like Britain, France, Portugal, Spain etc.
I made the connection very clear, and I backed it up with multiple sources. I repost them because I get zero counterarguments from you about them.

That's why all you can give now is just repeat what I said and give your pronouncements without any evidence whatsoever.

In which case, the only one who's endlessly waffling here is you.
 

Silvanus

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Ukraine was manipulated by the U.S. via regime change, and is part of NATO encirclement which Russia considered a threat:
The "regime change" to which you're referring: Yanukovich was removed by a unilateral vote in the Ukrainian Parliament, including by his own party, when he went AWOL. That's the legal process. It was then followed by a free election.

This is after he became dismally unpopular attempting to follow a policy diametrically opposed to the one he had been elected on.

And we now know his own advisors were preaching that Ukraine should be destroyed as an independent state.

Meanwhile: you're absolutely fine with regime change when it involves Russia attempting to depose their present elected government by force. So, no; you're supporting the only party involved in imposing regime change from outside.
 

Silvanus

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I made the connection very clear, and I backed it up with multiple sources. I repost them because I get zero counterarguments from you about them.
Dude, this is getting pathetic. It was directly pointed out to you that the sources you were posting didn't even support the conclusions you were drawing. You seem incapable of comprehending that.

George Kennan argued that Russia would attempt to retake Ukraine by force eventually regardless of leader or circumstance. The global south does not support Russia, and widely denounces the invasion. Yet here you are, day after day, just vomiting the same links up and blindly insisting they say black is white, presumably hoping people will just think, 'oh! The US is bad! All that other stuff he said must be true too'.

Half the rest of the links are just descriptions of US foreign policy being shit, as if that automatically validates Russia massacring civilians and sponsoring neo-Nazis, just by dint of... not being the US.

You think this constitutes some great challenge to US hegemony? Invading, annexing, and massacring a non-NATO country that followed its own legal process to remove a corrupt, shitty head of state, and then had the gall to hold an election and not want anything to do with Russia? Reality check: Ukraine does not belong to Russia, and is free to forge international alliances as it wishes. It was not coerced by the US even a *fraction* as much as it has been coerced by Russia for the last thirty years.

At the end of the day, you are simply unwilling to accept a country opting to turn away from your favoured policy, so you're happy to see that policy forced upon the population at the barrel of a gun.
 
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Ag3ma

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Put simply, the West was wrestling Ukraine away from Russia...
Again, there's this weird refusal to actually consider Ukraine's own will. Ukraine, all the way back in the 90s and ever since, was interesting in increasing links with Europe, much like Poland, Czechslovakia (as was), the Baltic states etc.

snip the rest
Most of this post is not talking to anyone here. It is just a generic soapbox speech rehashing American imperialism in the same form as has been done for decades. It doesn't tell us anything we don't already know, it doesn't really address any points we made, it's not part of a conversation.
 

Absent

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Again, there's this weird refusal to actually consider Ukraine's own will.
Not only that, but also more of the denial about Putin's Russia being a much worse State, much more toxic, much more dysfunctional than anything western. That is, a dictatorial State that one would want to shift away from (and that only other totalitarian regimes support).

Apparently Ukraine would only have "outside", engineered, illegitimate reasons to turn towards Europe rather than Russia. This is like an abusive man freaking out about some rival having "put ideas in the head" of the girl he's beating up to keep her under his control. The same discourse, the same blame shifting, the same legitimation of violence ("look what you made me do, you traitor, look what they make me do to you when you listen to them"). And the same bro support.

The fact that it accelerates other countries' shift away from that Russia is a deserved bonus. Putin's reaction is just the illustration (as if internal political violence and ideology wasn't enough) that distancing themelves from that madman's State is the thing to do. And Ukrainians are aware of this more than ever now.

It really takes a special kind of Putin admirer to blame a country for shifting away from that regime.
 

Ag3ma

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Apparently Ukraine would only have "outside", engineered, illegitimate reasons to turn towards Europe rather than Russia. This is like an abusive man freaking out about some rival having "put ideas in the head" of the girl he's beating up to keep her under his control.
Quite a good analogy - including that the abusive man should be allowed to continue battering his wife just so long as he hates a richer guy down the road.
 

Hades

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Ukraine was manipulated by the U.S. via regime change, and is part of NATO encirclement which Russia considered a threat:
Not really. Putin too brazenly paraded the Ukrainian president as a puppet to surrender Ukraine to him, and as it turned out Ukrainians didn't accept that. Putin forced Yanukovitch to self destruct. No American efforts needed on that front. Its not NATO presence in Ukraine that's the threat to Russia, its Russia that's the threat Ukraine is responding to by securing western protection.

The claim that it wants to form an empire is moronic neocon shrillery.
Not really. Russia is quite open about waging war for the glory of Empire. Their Imperial past of terrorizing eastern Europe is repeatedly used as an argument for why they should have special ownership over their neighbors, and Putin's pre invasion speech was chuck full of pseudo historical ramblings about how Russia deserves a special imperial status. It also stressed quite clearly that blood and soil were the leading motives of the Kremlin
 

Dalisclock

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Feels approps for some reason.


Not much changing as far as lines on the map. Counteroffensive will happen when it happens.

 
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Terminal Blue

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I mean, during World War II, the US Army saw a marked increase in soldiers' effectiveness in killing the enemy by just switching from plain bull's-eye targets to human silhouettes in basic training and shortening shooting drills so that the trainees didn't have time to think about what they were shooting at. We even have a name for this- "killology".
So, while I don't have much personal experience of being in combat or other similarly dangerous situations, I'm very much of the opinion that the whole concept of "killology" is incredibly flawed. I can see how second world war officers might have sought to blame soldier's behavior in combat on a simple unwillingness to kill people, and I can definately see how that remains a useful ideology for modern US police forces who like to divide the world into "wolves" and "sheep" in order to justify their seemingly limitless license to abuse people in the name of maintaining order.

But to put it bluntly, I think what those officers were noticing was actually unrelated. The reason soldiers would just blast away ineffectively once they got into combat and the reason why shortening shooting drills probably helped is because humans have a stress response which kicks in when we feel frightened or threatened. It's very hard to maintain the mental discipline required to consciously aim a gun (or ponder moral questions on whether killing someone is justified) when bullets are flying around and stuff is exploding. Forcing someone to react quickly in training simulates those conditions better, and thus results in more skills that translate over to actual combat.

But that same stress response can also make people very unpredictable. Contrary to the chorus of bootlickers who show up whenever cops in the US kill someone to explain about how the victim should have responded, a person with a gun pointed at them will likely have a very immediate and automatic reaction, which is why it's incredibly stupid to have the people who show up to resolve a domestic disturbance or a person having a really bad day be armed.

That's why I don't find the basement claim terribly convincing. Three or four hundred people is simply too many, it's too many to make demographic sense and it's too many to reasonably maintain control over within a single confined space.
 

ralfy

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The "regime change" to which you're referring: Yanukovich was removed by a unilateral vote in the Ukrainian Parliament, including by his own party, when he went AWOL. That's the legal process. It was then followed by a free election.

This is after he became dismally unpopular attempting to follow a policy diametrically opposed to the one he had been elected on.

And we now know his own advisors were preaching that Ukraine should be destroyed as an independent state.

Meanwhile: you're absolutely fine with regime change when it involves Russia attempting to depose their present elected government by force. So, no; you're supporting the only party involved in imposing regime change from outside.

The 2013-2014 anti-government protests, which started out peacefully in Kyiv’s Maidan (square), was urged on by visits to the streets by the U.S. undersecretary of state and regime change specialist, Victoria Nuland, who repeatedly met with coup plotters. Joining her were Senators John McCain (R-AZ) and Chris Murphy (D-CT), who stood on a platform in the square with the neo-Nazi leader Oleh Tyahnybok to offer America’s support, presumably without formal authorization, for the illegal overthrow of Yanukovych.

...

In interviews with European reporters in June 2022, Petro Poroshenko, who was a regular informant at the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv before he was sponsored by the U.S. to become president in 2014, said that while in office, he signed the Minsk agreements with Russia, France and Germany and agreed to a cease-fire merely as a ploy to buy time in building up the military and preparing for war. “Our goal,” he said, “was to, first, stop the threat, or at least to delay the war—to secure eight years to restore economic growth and create powerful armed forces.”

 

ralfy

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Dude, this is getting pathetic. It was directly pointed out to you that the sources you were posting didn't even support the conclusions you were drawing. You seem incapable of comprehending that.

George Kennan argued that Russia would attempt to retake Ukraine by force eventually regardless of leader or circumstance. The global south does not support Russia, and widely denounces the invasion. Yet here you are, day after day, just vomiting the same links up and blindly insisting they say black is white, presumably hoping people will just think, 'oh! The US is bad! All that other stuff he said must be true too'.

Half the rest of the links are just descriptions of US foreign policy being shit, as if that automatically validates Russia massacring civilians and sponsoring neo-Nazis, just by dint of... not being the US.

You think this constitutes some great challenge to US hegemony? Invading, annexing, and massacring a non-NATO country that followed its own legal process to remove a corrupt, shitty head of state, and then had the gall to hold an election and not want anything to do with Russia? Reality check: Ukraine does not belong to Russia, and is free to forge international alliances as it wishes. It was not coerced by the US even a *fraction* as much as it has been coerced by Russia for the last thirty years.

At the end of the day, you are simply unwilling to accept a country opting to turn away from your favoured policy, so you're happy to see that policy forced upon the population at the barrel of a gun.
Your read the sources wrongly! Kennan argued that the West should not interfere, and he was referring to NATO enlargement.


The Global South is answering back, which is why dollar use has been eroding, but ten times faster for the past year:


Ukraine following a legal process? It was attacking its own people by 2014, manipulated by Nuland and co. (similar to what happened in Russia, where "shock therapy" recommended by American economists led to democracy falling apart and the rise of oligarchs), and is now banning oppositionists while making deals with Wall Street.

You mean neocon process.
 

ralfy

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Again, there's this weird refusal to actually consider Ukraine's own will. Ukraine, all the way back in the 90s and ever since, was interesting in increasing links with Europe, much like Poland, Czechslovakia (as was), the Baltic states etc.



Most of this post is not talking to anyone here. It is just a generic soapbox speech rehashing American imperialism in the same form as has been done for decades. It doesn't tell us anything we don't already know, it doesn't really address any points we made, it's not part of a conversation.
Right, so why was the West manipulating it and even Russia after the Soviet Union fell apart?


They said "shock therapy" aka free market capitalism would solve economic ills, but they only made matters worse. The same oligarchs which worked with Western investors who profited from speculation then set up politicians which they thought they could manipulate, too, and who turned on them.

Given that, one needs an incredibly blinkered view to think that "American imperialism" has nothing to do with this, and worse, append to that the neocon view that "Russian imperialism" has something to do with it. Talk about choosing what should and should not be part of a conversation.

Finally, if you already know what has been rehashed, then why aren't you considering it? Why insist on the Reagan/Bush view of the world?