EU election

[Satinavian]

So we recently had elections for the European parliament

results from Guardian

Generally strong showing for nationalists and far right and weak showing for greens and (neo)liberals compared to the last one. Conservatives social democrats roughly the same.

The results obviously vary by country but are quite pronounced among others in France. Which Macron would not take lying down which is why he called a snap election.

BBC

So we might get a Front Rassemblement Nationale French president soon.

 

[Hades]

So we recently had elections for the European parliament

results from Guardian

Generally strong showing for nationalists and far right and weak showing for greens and (neo)liberals compared to the last one. Conservatives social democrats roughly the same.

The results obviously vary by country but are quite pronounced among others in France. Which Macron would not take lying down which is why he called a snap election.

BBC

So we might get a Front Rassemblement Nationale French president soon.

Actually I think its just the parliament election rather than the presidential one. So even if Le Pen wins she won't be president

 

[Satinavian]

Ah, you are correct. Forgot that was how it worked in France.

 

[Agema]

Actually I think its just the parliament election rather than the presidential one. So even if Le Pen wins she won't be president

Potentially not the worst idea. Firstly, given that EU elections can be potentially poor predictors of national elections, see how bad it really is, and if it is see whether it inspires the other parties to do anything about it. If RN do get in, leave them two years to tar themselves with accomplishing as little as any other party when in government.

 

[Hades]

So far the big triumph of the far right hasn't happened like the media kept saying. They did well in places. They did VERY well in places but in the grand scheme of things the centrist powers of the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats haven't really lost much sway to them, and the coalition before the election comfortable retains its lead.

So all in all its not that bad.

If RN do get in, leave them two years to tar themselves with accomplishing as little as any other party when in government.

Sadly I kinda doubt it. Often it seems the far right is held to different standards. Establishment parties can be punished for not making result but the voters of the far right typically are very forgiving as long as they feel ''the elites'' or ''the left'' is having a bad time.

 

[meiam]

Potentially not the worst idea. Firstly, given that EU elections can be potentially poor predictors of national elections, see how bad it really is, and if it is see whether it inspires the other parties to do anything about it. If RN do get in, leave them two years to tar themselves with accomplishing as little as any other party when in government.

Populist party tend to be poplar because they can just say whatever people want to hear, once they actually have to govern, they'll find it hard to please everyone. So I think the idea is take the bullet now and be somewhat secure with Macron still president, kinda like a far right inoculation. But at the same time, it'll be pretty easy for them to just blame any inaction on Macron still being prez.

Other part is that, iirc, the left alliance is in shamble at the moment, and he might hope that he can get most of them to vote for him to avoid an FN dominance. Or maybe he's hoping he'll be able to make a grand coalition against the FN.

Anyway, ultimately the French will vote and they'll get what they want.

 

[Agema]

Populist party tend to be poplar because they can just say whatever people want to hear, once they actually have to govern, they'll find it hard to please everyone. So I think the idea is take the bullet now and be somewhat secure with Macron still president, kinda like a far right inoculation.

Yes, that's pretty much how I figure it. Risky: but the way things are going presently, Marine Le Pen will be the next president.

But at the same time, it'll be pretty easy for them to just blame any inaction on Macron still being prez.

Maybe. At least RN should pick up some dirt to take the shine off.

 

[Seanchaidh]

I vaguely remember predicting that Macron would have this sort of effect. But I guess I say that sort of thing about 'centrist' neoliberal politics generally. No positive liberatory program means no durable alternative to fascism. Just a signpost along the dismal way.

 

[PsychedelicDiamond]

German results are a horrorshow. It's unbelievable how brainwashed this nation is.

 

[Worgen]

I was really hoping we were getting over this right wing brain rot, but I guess the worms are still spreading.

 

[Hades]

German results are a horrorshow. It's unbelievable how brainwashed this nation is.

Its weird how Germans of all people suddenly forgot that fascism went horribly for them the last time they tried it. The system led to complete defeat and the dismemberment of their country with Russia being allowed to occupy and terrorize the east for half a century.

 

[Casual Shinji]

Its weird how Germans of all people suddenly forgot that fascism went horribly for them the last time they tried it. The system led to complete defeat and the dismemberment of their country with Russia being allowed to occupy and terrorize the east for half a century.

I guess they got bored.

 

[Agema]

I guess they got bored.

You can get rid of the fascists as a party, but you never get rid of the proportion of the population inclined to fascism. It's psychology, not political doctrine. They're always there, around a fifth to a third of the population, favouring authoritarianism, strong leaders, social order, strong in-group favouritism, etc. Fascism did thoroughly wreck the political expression of that in many countries for a long time... but people forget over time. And that fifth-third of the population becomes an irresistable force for right-wing politics.

In France, the leader of the mainstream right has announced they should capitulate to RN. In the UK, the current flagbearer for the Conservative right wants to merge with the UK far right (Nigel Farage's "Reform"), which sounds me like much the same: a de facto surrender to it. Sure, they face very high disapproval and opposition from some of their party, but... This is also how it always is: when push comes to shove, the "moderate" right favours the far right to the moderate left.

 

[Hades]

In France, the leader of the mainstream right has announced they should capitulate to RN. In the UK, the current flagbearer for the Conservative right wants to merge with the UK far right (Nigel Farage's "Reform"), which sounds me like much the same: a de facto surrender to it. Sure, they face very high disapproval and opposition from some of their party, but... This is also how it always is: when push comes to shove, the "moderate" right favours the far right to the moderate left.

Another example being Rutte's VVD party clinging to Wilders in part because they really, really don't want to work with the center left labour party, because even a center left party that typically gives a lot of concessions to the right during coalition building is too left wing for them. Even more silly because Labour's Leader Frans Timmermans is on the right spectrum of labour and was one of the chief proponents of the very neoliberal Rutte 2 coalition where the VVD got the far better deal.

The same can be said of Saint Omzight who despite his discomfort with Wilders has dropped hints that he find working with them easier than with the left.

 

[Casual Shinji]

You can get rid of the fascists as a party, but you never get rid of the proportion of the population inclined to fascism. It's psychology, not political doctrine. They're always there, around a fifth to a third of the population, favouring authoritarianism, strong leaders, social order, strong in-group favouritism, etc. Fascism did thoroughly wreck the political expression of that in many countries for a long time... but people forget over time. And that fifth-third of the population becomes an irresistable force for right-wing politics.

In France, the leader of the mainstream right has announced they should capitulate to RN. In the UK, the current flagbearer for the Conservative right wants to merge with the UK far right (Nigel Farage's "Reform"), which sounds me like much the same: a de facto surrender to it. Sure, they face very high disapproval and opposition from some of their party, but... This is also how it always is: when push comes to shove, the "moderate" right favours the far right to the moderate left.

I'm certainly having fun, over here in ye old Europe.

 

[dreng3]

You can get rid of the fascists as a party, but you never get rid of the proportion of the population inclined to fascism. It's psychology, not political doctrine. They're always there, around a fifth to a third of the population, favouring authoritarianism, strong leaders, social order, strong in-group favouritism, etc.

I'd say you're making it overly complicated, in essence it just boils down to "You're having a rough time and it is all the fault of of those other people, but I'll/we'll be sure to make it right". The best way to deal with shit like this is through education and critical thinking which, surprise surprise, is why the right is against qualified education and critical thinking in general.

 

[meiam]

German results are a horrorshow. It's unbelievable how brainwashed this nation is.

East Germany mostly. The soviet screw them up while the west got the better deal under a liberal order. Now the east can't catch up, so rather than do better, they'll settle for policy that will make the west worse, even if it'll also make their own life worse. People tendency to cut off their own nose to spit their face is always baffling.

 

[Casual Shinji]

I'd say you're making it overly complicated, in essence it just boils down to "You're having a rough time and it is all the fault of of those other people, but I'll/we'll be sure to make it right". The best way to deal with shit like this is through education and critical thinking which, surprise surprise, is why the right is against qualified education and critical thinking in general.

Never underestimate the human brain's desire for easy answers.

 

[Agema]

I'd say you're making it overly complicated, in essence it just boils down to "You're having a rough time and it is all the fault of of those other people, but I'll/we'll be sure to make it right". The best way to deal with shit like this is through education and critical thinking which, surprise surprise, is why the right is against qualified education and critical thinking in general.

No, it's not that simple. There's a real type of mindset that will very easily embrace right-authoritarianism. Many of these guys aren't having a tough time. France's RN, Reform in the UK, etc. aren't mass movements of the struggling disadvantaged. They are generally run by the elites, heavily colonised by the affluent and well-connected middle classes, funded by successful businessmen. (Obviously, plenty are lower social class too). These are the guys who will always resurrect fascist-like parties.

Their current uptick however is a lot about exploiting the concerns of the struggling. But the struggling aren't necessarily buying into the right-authoritarian ideology. The disadvantaged are angry, frustrated, resentful of the status quo, and they want results. If the mainstream doesn't deliver, they go elsewhere. Currently, that elsewhere is in many places the far right.

 

[meiam]

No, it's not that simple. There's a real type of mindset that will very easily embrace right-authoritarianism. Many of these guys aren't having a tough time. France's RN, Reform in the UK, etc. aren't mass movements of the struggling disadvantaged. They are generally run by the elites, heavily colonised by the affluent and well-connected middle classes, funded by successful businessmen. (Obviously, plenty are lower social class too). These are the guys who will always resurrect fascist-like parties.

Their current uptick however is a lot about exploiting the concerns of the struggling. But the struggling aren't necessarily buying into the right-authoritarian ideology. The disadvantaged are angry, frustrated, resentful of the status quo, and they want results. If the mainstream doesn't deliver, they go elsewhere. Currently, that elsewhere is in many places the far right.

People mostly judge how well they do by comparing themselves with others. With social media giving people an "intimate" look at the rich and famous life, a lot of people will perceive themselves doing really poorly, when they do just fine. This breed resentment and admiration toward the rich (they want to live that life and are angry they aren't). At the same time they understand that if themselves everybody else was doing this well, they wouldn't be doing well at all (remember, they only judge success by comparing themselves to others).

This makes them perfect candidate for populist message, "the elite have taken the life that rightfully belong to you and are instead trying to give it to dirty immigrant who don't deserve it like you do. Vote for us and we'll punish the elite for taking it away from you and we'll make sure group of people that you don't belong to do really badly in life so that your own life looks better in comparison".