US 2024 Presidential Election

[tstorm823]

Billionaire cowards at Washington Post, LA Times show what life under a dictator is really like | Will Bunch

Rule No. 1 of fighting fascism — do not obey in advance — crumbles as major newspapers kill endorsements to appease Trump.

www.inquirer.com

And news organizations wonder why people don't trust them anymore.

I think it's probably because they've been publishing endorsements instead of news for half a century.

 

[Agema]

Are they dumb enough to think they'll genuinely get my vote this way, or do they think I'm dumb enough to fall for it?

Protip: you're not the intended audience of that political advertising.

* * *

I would not for a minute say that political campaigns are flawless. Far from it. But I do think that they have employed a large number of specialist experts whose job it is to know what people tend to vote for, what appeals to them, what motivates them, and so on. Odds are, those people know better what's going to shift votes than 98-99% of the public do. If you don't understand why they're campaigning on an issue, it's probably because you haven't worked out who they are trying to appeal to and why.

 

[Hades]

Billionaire cowards at Washington Post, LA Times show what life under a dictator is really like | Will Bunch

Rule No. 1 of fighting fascism — do not obey in advance — crumbles as major newspapers kill endorsements to appease Trump.

www.inquirer.com

And news organizations wonder why people don't trust them anymore.

I'm not sure its cowardice to begin with. Just a case of one corrupt billionaire supporting another. Or supporting someone perceived to be a billionaire at least. Bezoz wants his tax break and if the rest of the world needs to pay the price then that's a sacrifice he's willing to make.

 

[Thaluikhain]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/24/trump-vietnam-purple-heart-military/

Trump got given a purple heart from a veteran cause of getting shot. Apparently not the first time he got given a purple heart. Of course, he's a draft dodger, and said veterans that got injured were losers.

 

[tstorm823]

Protip: you're not the intended audience of that political advertising.

My original comment was "what are they doing" and "why is she running as a Republican?" Questions posed.

The part you quoted was in response to someone else saying "they want the tstorm vote" as an answer. I was responding directly to that suggestion.

That's a pretty poor excuse for a lecture.

 

[Silvanus]

Again, probability does not matter when trying to figure out what any one specific person will do.

If we had complete knowledge of that person, then sure. But I don't-- until I asked.

On election night, higher numbers for Stein will translate to lower numbers for Harris. You know this. I know this. You can say that this is only relevant when talking about large numbers of people. It's true that predictability decreases the fewer people are involved, and things get highly unpredictable at the individual level. And yet: if there was literally no higher likelihood for any given Stein voter to vote Harris than Trump under other circumstances, then that correlation wouldn't exist for the larger group either. Yet it does.

You keep arguing that Tippy voting for Stein is bad, because he's statistically likely to be a Harris voter if Stein wasn't running, and Tippy has repeatedly told you that under no circumstances would he be voting for Harris's current platform. This means that the probability of Tippy voting for Harris is 0, but you keep arguing otherwise.

No, i don't keep arguing that at all. I explicitly invited Tippy to correct the assumption in his case in the very first post on this topic, and said that the probabillity calculation doesn't hold for anyone who treats the two other candidates as exactly equal. I then reiterated numerous times that it doesn't apply to him in that case.

 

[Seanchaidh]

those who lie down with dogs get fleas

If we had complete knowledge of that person, then sure. But I don't-- until I asked.

On election night, higher numbers for Stein will translate to lower numbers for Harris. You know this. I know this. You can say that this is only relevant when talking about large numbers of people. It's true that predictability decreases the fewer people are involved, and things get highly unpredictable at the individual level. And yet: if there was literally no higher likelihood for any given Stein voter to vote Harris than Trump under other circumstances, then that correlation wouldn't exist for the larger group either. Yet it does.

key words: other circumstances

pointless comparison

 

[Seanchaidh]

But I do think that they have employed a large number of specialist experts whose job it is to know what people tend to vote for, what appeals to them, what motivates them, and so on.

And to square that with how to get funding, which is prioritized because it is what gets those specialist experts paid.

 

[tippy2k2]

those who lie down with dogs get fleas

"Cynical billboards"

Harris has been screaming to anyone who will listen that The Cheneys are on #TeamHarris

Telling the truth isn't being cynical

 

[crimson5pheonix]

"Cynical billboards"

Harris has been screaming to anyone who will listen that The Cheneys are on #TeamHarris

Telling the truth isn't being cynical

those who lie down with dogs get fleas


key words: other circumstances

pointless comparison

 

[Silvanus]

key words: other circumstances

pointless comparison

So you say. Yet you know as well as I do that higher Stein numbers on election day is likely to mean lower Harris numbers.

When Tippy says that if Harris were to hypothetically withdraw support from Israel, then she could earn his vote, he's discussing other circumstances.

 

[Seanchaidh]

So you say. Yet you know as well as I do that higher Stein numbers on election day is likely to mean lower Harris numbers.

They're also likely to mean lower Trump numbers, as they are votes that are not for Trump that could have been.

When Tippy says that if Harris were to hypothetically withdraw support from Israel, then she could earn his vote, he's discussing other circumstances.

ok..?

If Donald Trump pledged to withdraw support from Israel and correct a bunch of his other policies, I might consider voting for him. So what? These aren't who these people are.

 

[Dirty Hipsters]

If we had complete knowledge of that person, then sure. But I don't-- until I asked.

On election night, higher numbers for Stein will translate to lower numbers for Harris. You know this. I know this. You can say that this is only relevant when talking about large numbers of people. It's true that predictability decreases the fewer people are involved, and things get highly unpredictable at the individual level. And yet: if there was literally no higher likelihood for any given Stein voter to vote Harris than Trump under other circumstances, then that correlation wouldn't exist for the larger group either. Yet it does.

Someone being more likely to vote for Harris than Trump does not mean that they are likely to vote for Harris.

If someone votes for Stein there's no guarantee that they would have otherwise voted for Harris. There's a much higher likelihood that they would have stayed home and voted for no one, or voted for a different 3rd party.

To pretend that every vote for Stein is a vote stolen from Harris, and that if Stein wasn't running that Harris would get all of her votes is dreamland thinking.

Only 37% of US adult citizens who are eligible to vote participated in all three of the previous elections from 2018 to 2022. Harris isn't just competing with Trump and Stein, they're all competing with people apathetically not getting up from the couch. If people aren't compelled to vote for her they'll just stay home.

If Stein voters are energized enough by her to go vote that doesn't mean that they would have otherwise been energized enough to go vote for Harris.

 

[Silvanus]

They're also likely to mean lower Trump numbers, as they are votes that are not for Trump that could have been.

If you think that higher Stein numbers on the day is just as bad news for Trump as it is for Harris, you're being wilfully obtuse.

ok..?

If Donald Trump pledged to withdraw support from Israel and correct a bunch of his other policies, I might consider voting for him. So what? These aren't who these people are.

Yet, I think we can both much more easily imagine circumstances in which someone who prefers Stein may vote for Harris. After all, there are quite a few such people in this very thread.

 

[Silvanus]

Someone being more likely to vote for Harris than Trump does not mean that they are likely to vote for Harris.

If someone votes for Stein there's no guarantee that they would have otherwise voted for Harris. There's a much higher likelihood that they would have stayed home and voted for no one, or voted for a different 3rd party.

All of this is true, and doesn't affect my original argument. Higher inclination for one of the leading two is all that's required. If that inclination is nonetheless very small, then the shift in probability will be minuscule.

Btw: You are already acknowledging that people have likelihoods of acting in certain ways, and that this depends in part on their inclinations. Acknowledgement of that is implicit in your own post-- and that's really my entire point.

To pretend that every vote for Stein is a vote stolen from Harris, and that if Stein wasn't running that Harris would get all of her votes is dreamland thinking.

Hence why i never said or thought that.

 

[Silvanus]

From Trump's rally at Madison Square Garden, courtesy of Tony Hinchcliffe:

"There's literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now. Yeah. I think it's called Puerto Rico."

"And these Latinos, they love making babies too, just know that. They do, they do. There's no pulling out. They don't do that. They come inside, just like they did to our country".

"That's cool, Black guy with a thing on his head. What the hell is that, a lamp shade? Look at this guy! Oh, my goodness. Wow! I'm just kidding, that's one of my buddies. He had a Halloween party last night. We had fun, we carved watermelons together."

 

[BrawlMan]

Michigan Muslims 'divided' over the election, slam the Biden administration's handling of the war in Gaza

Fox News Digital spoke with Arab-Americans and Muslims in Detroit and Hamtramck, Michigan, about which presidential candidate they are voting for this upcoming election.

www.google.com

2024 election updates: Trump concludes MSG rally with anti-immigrant rhetoric

Donald Trump and some prominent supporters will speak at a rally at New York's Madison Square Garden.

www.google.com

US presidential election updates: Republicans in damage control after racist Puerto Rico comments at Trump rally | US elections 2024 | The Guardian

Donald Trump’s campaign condemns speaker at Madison Square Garden rally after Kamala Harris makes play for Puerto Rican voters with days to go before the 5 November election

amp.theguardian.com

US voters concerned about post-election violence and efforts to overturn the results: AP-NORC poll

A new poll finds that American voters are approaching the presidential election with deep unease about what could follow.

apnews.com

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www.reuters.com

Harris tells Philadelphia church election will "decide the fate of our nation for generations to come"

Vice President Kamala Harris made a series of campaign stops around Philadelphia Sunday.

www.google.com

 

[hanselthecaretaker2]

View attachment 12100

In case anyone’s confused about this meme, because it’s a funny story -

Spoiler

Michael Jordan and Chris Paul were attending a kids basketball camp in 2016. At one point, Paul challenged Jordan to play a game of "Around the World." If he missed three shots, every kid in the camp would have gotten Jordans for free.


The game varies from player to player, with Jordan taking shots from the elbow and the 3-point line.

He knocked down his first shot from the elbow before making a free-throw jumper. The basketball legend then moved to the 3-point line and drained three long-range shots in a row.

On his sixth shot, Paul put his hand in front of Michael Jordan, trying to get him to miss a shot. Unfortunately for the kids, that did not help and Jordan ended up making every single shot.


Making every single shot against no defense should be easy for every NBA player. However, it's important to note that Jordan was 53 years old during the challenge. That's probably why Paul thought that Jordan was going to miss a couple of shots.

Despite his retirement, Jordan is still very competitive and daring him to make all the shots was a bad idea. When the video resurfaced in 2018, Twitter user Killa Tex made a meme that became very popular.

Jordan broke the hearts of every kid at the basketball camp and became the subject of a popular meme as a reward

The meme quickly spread all over social media and some versions of it included other NBA players and characters from pop culture. Chris Paul, unsurprisingly, wasn't too happy about it.

Some of the comments are also golden.

 

[thebobmaster]

Sometimes, even getting out to vote isn't enough.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/28/us/ballot-box-fires-oregon-washington/index.html

 

[Burnhardt]

Sometimes, even getting out to vote isn't enough.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/28/us/ballot-box-fires-oregon-washington/index.html

What's the betting that MAGAs will be 'patrolling' the lines on voting day and pulling 'illegals' out of them.