US 2024 Presidential Election

[Silvanus]

They also weren't important to my point about how the probability is irrelevant. Incredible.

Uhrm, that's right, the value judgements weren't important to the point about probability, as I literally just said-- they'd let us skip a few steps later, that's all. But as you got so hung up on them, we can go for full tone neutrality.

Say instead there's a rare book in a shop window. One of the people who often comes to the shop is a fan of the author. An observer (who knows this) estimates at the start of the day that the probability of selling it on that day is 20% or so.

The fan passes by, and returns home, without coming in or spotting it.

The observer reestimates the likelihood of selling it that day. Do you think it's risen? Stayed the same? Decreased?

 

[tstorm823]

do you have a concrete example of border controls being relevant to this?

All of the people who claim asylum... or do we not take them seriously?

 

[tippy2k2]

In 2020, it was enough for Biden to merely not be Donald Trump.

In 2024, it may not be nearly enough for Harris to not be Donald Trump. She also has to not be Biden, which I think is what's been killing her lead these past couple of months.

"Not Donald Trump" may not cut it anymore.

Funding a genocide is frowned upon I guess

 

[Worgen]

 

[Hades]

"Not Donald Trump" may not cut it anymore.

Which is really bizare when Trump claims he'll be sending the army at parts of the population that don't support him. Or being Donald Trump in general.

Come on guys. The guy did four years of chaos and misrule, mishandled a pandemic purely because he felt he needed to maintain his demagogic credentials, did a fucking coup to remain in power and bungles among the lowest ranking, if not the lowest ranking presidents. Why would electing him this time go any better for the US when he's clearly in even deeper mental decline.

 

[Hades]

For extra fun Trump has (again) promised to prosecute and jail anyone who didn't go along with him plotting to become an illegitimate president in 2020. You know, in case there was any doubts about what you guys are sleepwalking into.

 

[BrawlMan]

Which is really bizare when Trump claims he'll be sending the army at parts of the population that don't support him. Or being Donald Trump in general.

Come on guys. The guy did four years of chaos and misrule, mishandled a pandemic purely because he felt he needed to maintain his demagogic credentials, did a fucking coup to remain in power and bungles among the lowest ranking, if not the lowest ranking presidents. Why would electing him this time go any better for the US when he's clearly in even deeper mental decline.

Because bitches like them can't actually stand for something and rather take a bigger bîtch just so they feel better about themselves. Or because "it makes sense", they didn't get whatever they wanted, or they think that they'll be treated fairly. Or have a better position than the last person. Yhe whole totem pole effect of I'll have it better then these people of X race and X gender.

 

[meiam]

Is Biden so disliked? I fully admit I'm going mostly of off vibes, but the impression I've got is that he doesn't instill any strong reactions. Like if I were to describe what the worst people think of the politicians are, I would write:
Clinton: "Oh gods, not her!"
Trump: "Oh gods, not him!"
Biden: *sigh* "Look, I really disagree with his policies."

Most people know almost nothing about politician policies, they just know "Biden = inflation". Thats why Trump is seen as the better bet on economy, they just equate him with the relatively good economy he inherited from Obama and the free money they got during covid.

 

[hanselthecaretaker2]

I don't recall that, but I do recall him sitting on his ass about it. If they did, fuck them too and I don't care right now. He still knew and didn't do anything until it was way too late and after the fact.


There was down playing. Trump downplayed the effects of virus (multiple times) and told people they can inject themselves with disinfect spary to prevent it from happening. 2 people actually tried it and died. An older married couple. The CDC had to put out a statement and the Lysol company too. All of that shit tracks and we still have the covid thread. Remember? At least the CDC actually went out and did their job. I give no thanks to Trump at all because he sat on his ass and didn't do anything till the last minute. Mister "take the vaccine, if you choose" to vaccine deniers who don't want to take it and he encouraged them not to do it. Let's not downplay any of his shit. How you forgot this is beyond me.

https://www.npr.org/sections/latest-updates-trump-covid-19-results/2020/10/02/919432383/how-trump-has-downplayed-the-coronavirus-pandemic

Trump shouldn’t have downplayed coronavirus, say experts | Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health

President Trump reportedly minimized the danger of the coronavirus last winter to avoid causing panic. Harvard Chan experts say that was the wrong thing to do.

www.hsph.harvard.edu

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/politics/trump-covid-pandemic-dark-winter/

Once again, at least Obama had a virus on lockdown early and made sure to keep it contained in quarantine and didn't wait at the last minute.

Trump suggests 'injection' of disinfectant to beat coronavirus and 'clean' the lungs

A Homeland Security official, under questioning from reporters, later said federal laboratories are not considering such a treatment option.

www.nbcnews.com

Accidental Poisonings Increased After President Trump's Disinfectant Comments

Disinfectant poisonings were up as much as 121% in April

time.com

Redirect Notice

Yeah he doesn’t have a filter and while it’s partly why he got popular all the stupid shit he’s said has also rightfully gotten him into trouble. He needs to learn to check himself.

 

[Seanchaidh]

All of the people who claim asylum... or do we not take them seriously?

As regards keeping "what they are fleeing from" out of the country.

 

[Seanchaidh]

The observer reestimates the likelihood of selling it that day. Do you think it's risen? Stayed the same? Decreased?

Relevance?

 

[Silvanus]

Relevance?

The question is whether someone acting in a certain way can affect the probability of other outcomes, depending on what we know of their possible other behaviours. The relevance to that is obvious. Has the likelihood of selling it risen, decreased, or stayed the same when the observer discovers the author's fan has headed straight home?

 

[Hades]

Most people know almost nothing about politician policies, they just know "Biden = inflation". Thats why Trump is seen as the better bet on economy, they just equate him with the relatively good economy he inherited from Obama and the free money they got during covid.

If they had sense they should have remembered Trump as the one harming the economy because he couldn't be bothered to do his duty during Covid.

 

[Johnny Novgorod]

Is Biden so disliked? I fully admit I'm going mostly of off vibes, but the impression I've got is that he doesn't instill any strong reactions.

I don't think that Biden's that disliked, I think that Kamala is stretched thin over the spectrum between having to oppose Trump while distancing herself enough from Biden. She's doing double the fighting, which means she has to flip flop on a lot of issues that should be cut and dried for Democrats, as opposed to Trump's rampant bullshitting slowly winning over constituents. Kamala ends up answering for Biden's failures but doesn't get to tote any of his merits.

We had a similar set up last year in Argentina: in the midst of the worst inflationary crisis in the history of the country, the incumbent leftist stepped down from seeking reelection (much earlier than Biden did this year) and picked a champion from his own administration to face a boorish libertarian challenger. The leftist candidate was in a no-win situation of putting as much distance as possible from his own failed administration while promising policy continuity. He had the added challenge of being the then-current Minister of Economy in a country with 211% annual inflation rate (lol). The other dude won by 12 points.

 

[hanselthecaretaker2]

Rogan did a podcast with Trump last night and it’s three hours long -



No wonder he was late for an appearance in Traverse City, MI.

 

[tippy2k2]

Yeah, picking Walz kept that momentum up, then she swerved hard right and all that momentum crashed.

It's fun watching people in here twist themselves up into pretzels wondering how in the world this election could possibly be so close, getting to "Am I so out of touch? No no, it's the voters who are wrong" Principal Skinner levels of mental gymnastics to show how voters are just too stupid to understand why they should be voting for Harris when Crimson already answered the question with one sentence a few pages ago...

It seems pretty damn obvious to me why this election is so close. Funding a Genocide and swerving hard right on multiple issues somehow hasn't convinced people that they should vote for Harris...

 

[Hades]

t's fun watching people in here twist themselves up into pretzels wondering how in the world this election could possibly be so close, getting to "Am I so out of touch? No no, it's the voters who are wrong" Principal Skinner levels of mental gymnastics to show how voters are just too stupid to understand why they should be voting for Harris when Crimson already answered the question with one sentence a few pages ago...

If voters vote for a disaster president who bungles at the absolute bottom of the rankings and did a coup then they are objectively wrong though. No gymnastics required. Its just as obvious as the sky being blue.

 

[tippy2k2]

If voters vote for a disaster president who bungles at the absolute bottom of the rankings and did a coup then they are objectively wrong though. No gymnastics required. Its just as obvious as the sky being blue.

The people voting for Trump are the people that WANT all that hard right shit. Harris is courting a group who are already taken.

All those people she's choosing to leave behind because she wants to chase after Republicans instead are either not voting or voting Third Party

You guys can scream into the void about how it's bad but that doesn't change the facts of the situation. Harris chose to go after Republicans and there's a very real chance that she is going to be paying the price for that in a week and change...

 

[Dirty Hipsters]

Say instead there's a rare book in a shop window. One of the people who often comes to the shop is a fan of the author. An observer (who knows this) estimates at the start of the day that the probability of selling it on that day is 20% or so.

The fan passes by, and returns home, without coming in or spotting it.

The observer reestimates the likelihood of selling it that day. Do you think it's risen? Stayed the same? Decreased?

Still a silly question based on assumptions that may be completely unfounded. Probability can be useful in determining how a large group of people might act on average. It is not useful in determining how a single specific individual might act.

The observer assumes that if a fan of a particular author sees a rare book by that author that they will be compelled to buy it. That's not how people work though. Hell, even if the fan WANTS the rare book by the author that doesn't necessarily mean they would buy the book should they find it.

This hypothetical is very similar to video game publishers thinking that every pirated copy of a game can be directly thought of as a lost sale, which is untrue.

 

[Seanchaidh]

The question is whether someone acting in a certain way can affect the probability of other outcomes, depending on what we know of their possible other behaviours. The relevance to that is obvious. Has the likelihood of selling it risen, decreased, or stayed the same when the observer discovers the author's fan has headed straight home?

so it's not relevant to what tippy2k2 wrote. no one here (or maybe anywhere) is a fan (biggest or otherwise) of Kamala who isn't already voting for her (unless they're ineligible to vote in the relevant election).

Jill Stein is in the race: this isn't some alternative reality where she isn't and comparing to that possible world is pointless.
Kamala Harris is irredeemably terrible: this isn't some alternative reality where she isn't and comparing to that possible world is pointless.

that aside, it's silly to say that the likelihood of something having been sold on some day has increased or decreased based on one particular person's actions. do you have any idea how many lurking variables there are in such a matter? and it isn't as if this one is any more important than any of the others. the only thing you're exposing is how tenuous your analysis is.