US 2024 Presidential Election

[Silvanus]

This could have been done this entire time but Biden/Harris weren't willing to actually DO anything to Israel when they spit in our faces. How many fucking "RED LINES" did Biden give cause I distinctly remember at least two of them (and that was just in Public).

Biden and Harris could have stopped this at any point by turning off the faucet of weapons they were giving to Israel and they chose not to. Trump clearly did something to get their attention because Israel broke real fucking quick once Trump walked into the door and told them to accept the ceasefire or else.

They could have (and should have) ended military assistance immediately. It's morally repugnant that they didn't. But that would not necessarily have ended the war. Israel's own military, US assistance aside, is still overwhelmingly capable of carrying out these kinds of 'operations'. Biden could potentially have brought an end to it through additional pressure or sanctions on Israel, above and beyond merely turning off the faucet.

The deal that is now being finalised is the one negotiated by Biden's team. I expect the timing of Netanyahu's acquiescence is because he was waiting in the hope that Trump would tear it up and introduce a new one more favourable to Israel-- and then when that turned out to be a non-starter, he just took what was already on the table. That's not much to Trump's credit-- the same outcome would have happened, and earlier, if there hadn't been an election on the docket.

Any credit Trump gets is for being willing to stick to Biden's terms.

Whether Trump deserves full credit or just some credit is frankly, something I don't give a flying fuck about.

I'm sceptical about that, as your very first thought seems to have been about how the announcement reflects on the Democrats.

 

[Silvanus]

I doubt the EU could handle China's navy alone shortly. They cannot right now due to the lack of Chinese-friendly ports, but that's changing with China's increasingly friendly relations with various countries in Africa.

The EU =/= the rest of NATO outside of the US, to begin with. If we're considering maritime power rankings, the PRC is second, but would be outgunned by ~4 or 5 of the stronger NATO powers in combination, let alone any true combined fleet. And that's just navy, useless against a huge number of NATO countries. In standing armies and air power the discrepancy is even more stark.

Truly, though, these are kind of silly mental war games. A conventional confrontation of this sort is absurdly unlikely. To attack would be self-destructive in the extreme.

Also, a Trump or JD Vance could just say fuck it, China you get Taiwan, and We get Greenland. Or attack Greenland and Canada when the Eu is distracted with Russia, and China is invading Taiwan. The P2.

This is unserious fantastical stuff. As is Trump's own musing on the matter.

 

[Seanchaidh]

Israel's own military, US assistance aside, is still overwhelmingly capable of carrying out these kinds of 'operations'.

It is possible to find Israeli officials that say otherwise.

Israeli air force official: Without U.S. aid, Israel couldn't fight Gaza beyond few months

***

www.haaretz.com

I'm sceptical about that, as your very first thought seems to have been about how the announcement reflects on the Democrats.

That is distinct from whether Trump deserves any amount of credit. Related, perhaps even in linear fashion, but still a different issue.

 

[Thaluikhain]

Israel's own military, US assistance aside, is still overwhelmingly capable of carrying out these kinds of 'operations'.

Is Israel's economy capable of withstanding doing so without the US footing much/most of the bill, though?

 

[Agema]

Is Israel's economy capable of withstanding doing so without the US footing much/most of the bill, though?

I'm sure Israel could pay for a significant amount of military action on its own. However, it would need to think very carefully about how long, intense and frequent such operations would be. The cost since October 2023 is estimated at $50-60 billion, or ~10% Israeli GDP. As occasional one-off cost, this is manageable for a country - could be "paid off" within five years during good times with careful budgetting. The USA appears to have given Israel about $18 billion, so around a quarter-third of the total bill.

The USA simply needs to stop supplying weapons. This would intrinsically limit any operations Israel could carry out, because no countries have stocks of arms and ammo to last for long periods, and face a high security risk if they exhaust those stocks.

 

[tippy2k2]

I'm sceptical about that, as your very first thought seems to have been about how the announcement reflects on the Democrats.

Because while I'm incredibly happy that at least a baby step to stoping the slaughter has happened, I'm also incredibly angry how blatant it is that Biden could have stopped it at any point but chose not to. Especially given how much shit I was given for not voting for Holocaust Harris because "Trump would be worse!!!".

Fuck Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and every single politician that sat on their thumbs and just allowed this to happen. Hell is too good for these fucking monsters.

 

[Satinavian]

Seems like Netanyahu is trying to stop it again.

Same dance as always : negotiators agree and then the Israeli gouvernment torpedoes it.

 

[Silvanus]

It is possible to find Israeli officials that say otherwise.

Of course it is, because they want to maintain that flow of weaponry.

Is Israel's economy capable of withstanding doing so without the US footing much/most of the bill, though?

Capable, sure, but I'll concede there's a question of political willingness. Though the current government seems to be in hock to the zealous expansionists.

Because while I'm incredibly happy that at least a baby step to stoping the slaughter has happened, I'm also incredibly angry how blatant it is that Biden could have stopped it at any point but chose not to. Especially given how much shit I was given for not voting for Holocaust Harris because "Trump would be worse!!!".

Fuck Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and every single politician that sat on their thumbs and just allowed this to happen. Hell is too good for these fucking monsters.

And that's anger that's completely justified.

I'm pointing out that you do seem quite invested in Trump getting all the credit, as part of the justification for this anger. And it's not credible for him to get it. He did nothing but insist on Biden's deal. You've bought into a pretty shameless Republican propaganda line, albeit as a result of fully justified anger.

 

[tippy2k2]

And that's anger that's completely justified.

I'm pointing out that you do seem quite invested in Trump getting all the credit, as part of the justification for this anger. And it's not credible for him to get it. He did nothing but insist on Biden's deal. You've bought into a pretty shameless Republican propaganda line, albeit as a result of fully justified anger.

Alright, since evidently I need to yell at The Republicans every time I shit on The Democrats because no one here understands you can hate two groups at the same time...

I can give credit where due while still hating Trump. Trump (and Biden) can do good things while still deserving to go to the Deepest Pits of Hell. I can also tell Democrats that they are shit and deserve to burn to the ground while not loving Republicans. I do not understand why this is such a tough concept for people of this website.

In this case, I care that the cease fire has happened (whether it sticks around is to be determined but this is the biggest step taken since the "war" began). Every report coming out of this situation states that Israel is mad and irked that Trump played hardball with them and that was the big difference between July (when this essentially same exact ceasefire deal was proposed) and now. So yes, for the time being at least, all evidence says that Trump is the X factor that made this happen and therefore I am giving him at least partial credit for the ceasefire. I am also heavily shitting on Democrats here because it seems pretty obvious that nothing changed EXCEPT Trump is involved now so it seems pretty obvious that if Biden actually wanted the ceasefire to happen, he had the political power and leverage to make it happen and actively chose not to.

 

[Gergar12]

The EU =/= the rest of NATO outside of the US, to begin with. If we're considering maritime power rankings, the PRC is second, but would be outgunned by ~4 or 5 of the stronger NATO powers in combination, let alone any true combined fleet. And that's just navy, useless against a huge number of NATO countries. In standing armies and air power the discrepancy is even more stark.

Truly, though, these are kind of silly mental war games. A conventional confrontation of this sort is absurdly unlikely. To attack would be self-destructive in the extreme.



This is unserious fantastical stuff. As is Trump's own musing on the matter.

The US gets the status quo if it were to defend Taiwan and the EU. The US would get more land and power if it were to get Canada, Greenland, Baja California, and Mexico. However, Trump may just want to extract more concessions from the EU, TSMC, and Mexico over tariffs, and various economic policies.

 

[Seanchaidh]

Of course it is, because they want to maintain that flow of weaponry.

The completely gratuitous weaponry, yeah.

 

[Agema]

The US gets the status quo if it were to defend Taiwan and the EU. The US would get more land and power if it were to get Canada, Greenland, Baja California, and Mexico.

Territory is not the same as power.

Power is due to a lot of things. One of the important things is cohesion. The problem with grabbing a load of territory is that unless the people of that territory really want to be ruled by you, they're potentially going to cause a lot of trouble.

At a simple level, Canada and Mexico are a lot less right-wing than the USA. Take over Canada, realistically that's about 10 new states (it's not like the entirety of Canada will be just one state of the USA), and they'll almost certainly vote in a load of left-leaning politicians. That alone would cause huge ructions. Absorbing Mexico, given its population, could absolutely shatter the USA's cohesion. Economically, integration of any territory will cost. Any Mexican state would almost certainly also require some sort of major federal support to bring to US standards. As Germany has discovered, even if they speak the same language and were part of the same country just 50 years previously, it's a lot harder and costlier than you might assume.

 

[Chimpzy]

At a simple level, Canada and Mexico are a lot less right-wing than the USA. Take over Canada, realistically that's about 10 new states (it's not like the entirety of Canada will be just one state of the USA), and they'll almost certainly vote in a load of left-leaning politicians. That alone would cause huge ructions.

Bold to assume that if those were to be annexed, they would be given representation.

 

[Gergar12]

Territory is not the same as power.

Power is due to a lot of things. One of the important things is cohesion. The problem with grabbing a load of territory is that unless the people of that territory really want to be ruled by you, they're potentially going to cause a lot of trouble.

At a simple level, Canada and Mexico are a lot less right-wing than the USA. Take over Canada, realistically that's about 10 new states (it's not like the entirety of Canada will be just one state of the USA), and they'll almost certainly vote in a load of left-leaning politicians. That alone would cause huge ructions. Absorbing Mexico, given its population, could absolutely shatter the USA's cohesion. Economically, integration of any territory will cost. Any Mexican state would almost certainly also require some sort of major federal support to bring to US standards. As Germany has discovered, even if they speak the same language and were part of the same country just 50 years previously, it's a lot harder and costlier than you might assume.

Mexico is a longer-term project, and Canada only has 30ish million people. We could settle new people into Canada. Also, many Mexican-Americans/Americans are even more patriotic than I am. They join the US government, and many even join the US military. Also, It was assumed we would split Canada into 2 states, I generally want four-six states if it were to happen.

The US has little problems with cohesion, it's the best assimilation/civic nationalistic system in the world right now, and possibly in history. It's better than the Ottomans and loads better than the British Empire. Most people here don't form ethnic enclaves.

 

[Gergar12]

Bold to assume that if those were to be annexed, they would be given representation.

They would, but not to the level of Wyoming, or Vermont more like California, Texas, and New York. So not that many senate votes vs the smaller states in terms of senate representation. Now in my opinion the senate needs to be reformed, and the electoral college is outdated, but I'm not president.

 

[Gergar12]

The EU =/= the rest of NATO outside of the US, to begin with. If we're considering maritime power rankings, the PRC is second, but would be outgunned by ~4 or 5 of the stronger NATO powers in combination, let alone any true combined fleet. And that's just navy, useless against a huge number of NATO countries. In standing armies and air power the discrepancy is even more stark.

Truly, though, these are kind of silly mental war games. A conventional confrontation of this sort is absurdly unlikely. To attack would be self-destructive in the extreme.



This is unserious fantastical stuff. As is Trump's own musing on the matter.

Gym Jordan my rep/MAGA republican house of rep in Congress has attacked the idea of defending Taiwan, and there was that one New York Times article a while back that mentioned China could pay off all of our debt in exchange for it.

That said I don't want that to happen since I like my cheap electronics and GPUs. But I have little to no power, I am one vote. States on the other hand often do self-serving things such as this. Also, China's navy could in theory grow even stronger, and they could get warm-water ports in West Africa in the future given Chinese involvement in Africa.

 

[Silvanus]

Alright, since evidently I need to yell at The Republicans every time I shit on The Democrats because no one here understands you can hate two groups at the same time...

I can give credit where due while still hating Trump. Trump (and Biden) can do good things while still deserving to go to the Deepest Pits of Hell. I can also tell Democrats that they are shit and deserve to burn to the ground while not loving Republicans. I do not understand why this is such a tough concept for people of this website.

Its not a tough concept, but thats not what you're actually doing. You're giving credit to where its categorically not due-- to warmongers masquerading as peacemakers (an apt description for both Democrats and Republicans). Just as you'd object if people started crediting Blinken and Biden as architects of peace following this deal-- If you sing the Republicans' praises, then I'm going to point out how weak the reasoning is.

Every report coming out of this situation states that Israel is mad and irked that Trump played hardball with them and that was the big difference between July (when this essentially same exact ceasefire deal was proposed) and now. So yes, for the time being at least, all evidence says that Trump is the X factor that made this happen and therefore I am giving him at least partial credit for the ceasefire.

I'd encourage you to look past whatever headlines you're seeing, then, because this is nonsensical. Netanyahu was holding out in the hope Trump would renegotiate a harsher deal. Trump was unwilling, so Netanyahu took what was on offer. All Trump did was agree to stick with Biden's terms.

 

[Silvanus]

The completely gratuitous weaponry, yeah.

Gratuitous for the purposes of oppressing Gaza and the West Bank, yes.

What, do you think America actually needs it's entire defence budget for its current engagements? That military capacity is only ever kept sky-high for immediate purposes? Come on. American assistance means they don't need to cause themselves as much economic discomfort to keep this going... and can hoard materiel for the future.

 

[Silvanus]

The US gets the status quo if it were to defend Taiwan and the EU. The US would get more land and power if it were to get Canada, Greenland, Baja California, and Mexico. However, Trump may just want to extract more concessions from the EU, TSMC, and Mexico over tariffs, and various economic policies.

America also could have acquired more land if it invaded its allies at any time in the last 70+ years.

It didn't, because doing so would be catastrophically moronic, even purely for American priorities.

 

[tippy2k2]

All Trump did was agree to stick with Biden's terms.

Then I'll ask this as clearly as possible without any other talking points or messages to fuzzy it up

Why the FUCK could Biden not do this?

This isn't some brand new deal. According to the reports, this was the same exact deal offered to Israel and Hamas in July (that The Biden Administration claimed Israel accepted before we all found out that was a lie). ONE thing has changed in this situation and that's Trump waltzed in like the Chaotic Evil Force that he is and told Israel to take this deal or else.

Trump could be the devil incarnate (and he might be but that's a different discussion) but he is the one that stepped in and forced the deal according to every single report. So what is your thinking here? Israel, Bibi, the news reports out of Israel and everyone involved in this is lying and this is all some grand conspiracy to make Biden look bad? Are you so desperate to be right that The Democrats are actually the heroes of this story that you're willing to just call everything Fake News?

Like, I do not understand how you can be so blinded by your Blue Tinted Glasses that it can't even be possible that Trump did anything good (whatever his reasons, we'll see soon enough if this is all just bluster when Israel inevitably breaks the ceasefire because that's what Israel fucking does) and that Biden failed the hell out of Gaza and anyone with any sense of decency who stood up and cried out to have Biden do ANYTHING to stop the genocide.

But here, since you're so desperate that Democrats get credit, they get credit for creating the deal in July. There, here is the sliver of credit they get for this ceasefire deal. But a deal doesn't mean shit if you're not willing to do anything to enforce it and it's blatantly obvious to anyone not drowning in Blue Kool-Aid that Biden and Harris had no desire to do a fucking thing to stop Israel. I can guaran-fucking-tee that if Harris won this election, none of us would be talking about the ceasefire going down. It would just be more "IsRaEl HaS tHe RiGhT tO dEfEnD iTsElF" as it continues their campaign of ethnic cleansing of an entire people.