US 2024 Presidential Election

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Agema

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Only the leadership, and their henchmen the IRGC.
Sure. And when are you getting them all in a room together to kill with one bomb?

Like, Israel has spent years utterly demolishing Gaza, slaughtering, starving and traumatising the whole population, and... Hamas is still in charge of what little is left. That demonstrates the fantasy of thinking you can "decapitate" entrenched power systems.
 
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Gergar12

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Sure. And when are you getting them all in a room together to kill with one bomb?

Like, Israel has spent years utterly demolishing Gaza, slaughtering, starving and traumatising the whole population, and... Hamas is still in charge of what little is left. That demonstrates the fantasy of thinking you can "decapitate" entrenched power systems.
Israel is full idiots in power who think like Russia and Trump with the muh Lebensraum over common sense. The average American isn't like that, and is generally either sympathetic or has apathy at worst.

We should leave right now, we have preserve strategic deterrence and we need to exit before every US company faces boycotts not just tech.
 

Gergar12

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Which was always a fantasy.

Even the "decapitation strikes" killed more bystanders than actual targets and it got only worse.

So far the whole operation only demonstrates to the Iranians that the regime was right : Israel and the USA do want to destroy Iran and they do want to go steal the oil and gas. And the IRGC with the rocket program is the only thing that can defend Iran.
No I disagree, Iranian deaths deter the US, soft power does. If Trump had played his cards right, and gotten Israel to heel, Iran could have been baited with either a coup or a first attack as a result the world could have been mixed on this conflict. Instead Israel invaded Lebanon for no fucking reason and will likely never leave, bombed a oil production plant that rained acid into Iran's capital, and the US under Trump just had to start blowing up Kharg island which would mean Iranian hospitals won't get enough medical supplies from trade with China.

Yet all of the left just keeps holding the democratic party hostage over one issue that the US can only solve if 95% of congress is defeated in the ballot box thanks to J-Street and AIPAC by which time Gaza will be dead, the West Bank would be fully in Israel's hands, and Lebanon would be a rump state with 14% of it annexed by Israel. Fuck Jill Stein.
 

Seanchaidh

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Yet all of the left just keeps holding the democratic party hostage over one issue that the US can only solve if 95% of congress is defeated in the ballot box thanks to J-Street and AIPAC by which time Gaza will be dead, the West Bank would be fully in Israel's hands, and Lebanon would be a rump state with 14% of it annexed by Israel. Fuck Jill Stein.
 

Hades

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Yet all of the left just keeps holding the democratic party hostage over one issue that the US can only solve if 95% of congress is defeated in the ballot box thanks to J-Street and AIPAC by which time Gaza will be dead, the West Bank would be fully in Israel's hands, and Lebanon would be a rump state with 14% of it annexed by Israel. Fuck Jill Stein.
Indeed. Saving Gaza wasn't on the ballot but literally saving everything else was. And its bizare that deal wasn't taken, all the more so because Trump would be even worse for the Middle East

Israel is full idiots in power who think like Russia and Trump with the muh Lebensraum over common sense.
I always thought Serbia was a good comparison and hope Israel will skipt the whole world war thing the Serbian issue led to.
 
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Agema

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No I disagree, Iranian deaths deter the US, soft power does. If Trump had played his cards right, and gotten Israel to heel,
Judging by the way Israel looks set to torpedo the ceasefire, it seems Netanyahu reckons that no-one will bring him to heel.

It could be that he wants to get as much leverage over Trump as possible ("Do what I want or I kill your ceasefire"), maybe to the point of getting the USA to formally demand Iran give up peace in Lebanon as a ceasefire condition. Or he just wants to do as much damage as possible before Trump finally pulls on his leash. But I fancy he thinks there is at least a chance he can just go on murdering Arabs and Iranians forever, and the USA will carry on pouring military support in to let him do so no matter what happens with the oil price.
 

tstorm823

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It could be that he wants to get as much leverage over Trump as possible ("Do what I want or I kill your ceasefire"), maybe to the point of getting the USA to formally demand Iran give up peace in Lebanon as a ceasefire condition. Or he just wants to do as much damage as possible before Trump finally pulls on his leash. But I fancy he thinks there is at least a chance he can just go on murdering Arabs and Iranians forever, and the USA will carry on pouring military support in to let him do so no matter what happens with the oil price.
Don't be the person arguing that Netanyahu just has bloodlust for Arabs. They are attacking Lebanon for exactly the reason Iran is demanding they be part of the ceasefire, Hezbollah is a front of the war between Israel and Iran. Either its all part of the same conflict and violative of the ceasefire, or he's a genocidal maniac, but you can't claim both.
 

Agema

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Don't be the person arguing that Netanyahu just has bloodlust for Arabs.
I don't think Netanyahu has bloodlust for Arabs: I think he's far too cynical for that. I think he's a deeply corrupt politician under very credible threat of prosecution, who can stave it off by staying as PM. In order to stay as PM, he's cynically generating a permanent state of conflict to help put off elections, not least because it offers a chance his popularity might recover for when he consents to allow an election to occur.

He doesn't need to hate Arabs, he just doesn't care about them. Their lives are irrelevant, like ants, flies, or spiders. They can be killed in small amounts or large, it doesn't matter. They can have their homes stolen and destroyed, livelihoods wrecked, starved, traumatised, forced to march back and forth across a postapocalyptic wasteland as his army dictates, and that's all fine. That's where I think Netanyahu is. Actually, I think that's potentially how he sort of views his fellow Israelis too, except that his job requires him to keep them sweet so for pragmatic reasons he treats them better.

Some of the other members of his cabinet, and a healthy proportion of Israelis generally, they definitely do want to mass exterminate a load of Arabs. They say so freely, or behind barely disguised euphemisms.

They are attacking Lebanon for exactly the reason Iran is demanding they be part of the ceasefire, Hezbollah is a front of the war between Israel and Iran. Either its all part of the same conflict and violative of the ceasefire, or he's a genocidal maniac, but you can't claim both.
I don't think Iran and Israel are at war in the way you make out. I think Iran hates Israel for sure, and would happily have Israel destroyed for sure, but I don't think Iran is necessarily out to get Israel - Israel is more a means than an end. I think if Iran has a real enemy, it is Saudi Arabia.

Iran is Shia, which is the largest - if still small - minority sect of Islam (~10%). Iran is the only major Shia Muslim nation: Iraq is majority Shia by population, but Shia power was deliberately constrained by the post-invasion constitutional settlement to reduce the risk of it cosying up to Iran. Therefore, there's a huge Muslim sectarian issue, and let's face it, more radical Sunnis (in Saudi Arabia?) would like to convert the heretics. To some extent, it's just that Iran (Persia) was a major regional power and has the size and resources to be again, so there's historical friction as well as current rivalry with Saudi Arabia (maybe also Turkiye) for regional top dog.

Thus what Iran is really doing in Syria, Lebanon, the Palestinian Territories, Yemen etc. is I think not really about Israel at all - it's about attempting to secure influence and power across the region amongst fellow Muslims. Because everyone in the area hates Israel, influence is available by exploiting animosity towards it. It allows Iran leverage in all sorts of places it would otherwise struggle. Iran cannot play out in the sun with the other kids in the neighbourhood, because the other kids hate it. And we're not playing with it either, because we're friends with the other kids who sell us their oil and pressure us to exclude Iran. Iran can't directly compete economically, politically or militarily, so it goes asymmetric. What does it have left, except by scraping what support it can from the oppressed, repressed, angry objectors in all its neighbours? It is surely the best, practical option.

I want to stress, I do not have sympathies for the Iranian regime (I have a huge amount for its tragically abused population). But I think from a pragmatic point of view there is a major element of their actions which can be interpreted as essentially defensive, because Iran is a threatened nation: as a religious minority, with better-backed rivals; that for decades it has been subjected to Western-backed coups, Western-backed repressive autocrats, Western-backed and Saudi funded invasions and bombings.

So I don't believe Iran is at war with Israel as such. It's that Iran backs certain groups that attack Israel, but Iran doesn't back them because Iran wants them to attack Israel, just because they give a way for Iran to have influence. When those terrorist groups attack Israel, they're mostly doing it on their own initiative. Israel is then given a clear reason to strike at Iran, because Iran definitely is backing terrorists that attack Israel.

If Israel didn't treat so many millions of Muslims extraordinarily badly, maybe it wouldn't generate so much retaliatory terrorism. But that's the Israeli strategy: "We steal your land and kill you, and if you resist we just kill you even harder". Actually, that's pretty much what the USA did to the native Americans, no wonder it has such an affinity for Israel.
 

BrawlMan

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Oops one of Trump's crazed underlings threatened the pope. So much for Trump as the Christian man's president
Reports: Pentagon Delivered "Bitter Lecture" to Vatican Ambassador, Warning that the U.S. "Has the Military Power to do Whatever it Wants"
Trump only helps "good christians", when they follow his every order or rule. This isn't even the first time they've gone at it. For in both cases Trump or one of his disposable ponds going at it.



 

The Rogue Wolf

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Seanchaidh

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Oops one of Trump's crazed underlings threatened the pope. So much for Trump as the Christian man's president
A large number of American Protestants think Roman Catholicism isn't Christian. Makes one wonder what these Protestants were protesting.
 

Agema

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Huh, I agree with some of what Trump said. This is novel.
Really? I nearly always agree with some of what Trump says.

Like I also agree with some of what a student who gets 30% says, and then I give them a fail grade.
 

Gergar12

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You lucky NYCers....

 

The Rogue Wolf

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"We can't stop Iran from blockading the Strait... so let's pretend we're doing the blockade instead!"


Trump is an imbecile and so is everyone who supports him.