2019-2020 coronavirus pandemic (Vaccination 2021 Edition)
- Thread starter McElroy
- Start date
What I've been arguing is that cases aren't going back up, and to my knowledge that is still true. The United States isn't a single place that experiences a single trend. The part of the US that got hit hard early on is in the Northeast, where cases came down and remain down. A lot of the US experienced substantially less of the virus than other countries. The Northeast of the US matches the trends in Europe pretty well, though not necessarily in scale, but scale is the thing that's hard to compare because of different reporting standards. You get the big wave, and then it stays down while you slowly reopen. Rural America locked down preemptively while the east coast megacity got decimated. They never experienced the first wave, they are getting it now. And like, it's not looking great at the moment, but what do you expect when you almost completely avoid the virus for 3 months and then reopen and immediately have 3 weeks of protest in every major city.
The argument I'm really making is about why the number of cases ever went down in places. I'm arguing that most of the reason cases dropped in places like New York or Italy is because a critical amount of people were infected already. Obvious restrictions play some part, but they aren't the biggest part, as evidenced by the places that imposed restrictions and sat on a slow spread. What the trends do match up nicely with is that graph from way way back that told us that without social distancing we get a big spike, and with social distancing we get a slow wave, and either way the same number of people get sick.
So like, if you expect 60-70% of people to be infected before immunity drives the rate of epidemic spread out of the exponential rates, the trends we see don't make sense. Tests for antibodies are only finding like 10-20% of people immune in the worst hit places, which in theory is miles away from herd immunity having any effect at all. So people are like "well, it's the strict social distancing measures that brought it down and are keeping it down", but that doesn't explain New York. New York just had tens of thousands of people chanting in the streets on top of one another, but the rate hasn't risen. New Jersey is still down. Massachusetts is still down. The harder a state got hit in the first place, the more resistant it is to swinging up, which is precisely what I expect.
People are acting as though there still being rising cases in America is a sign that America is handing the pandemic poorly. But that isn't how it works. That isn't how it works at all. When you handle it worse, a virus burns through faster, not slower. And that raises some serious questions. There are like 3 places on the planet that managed to functionally eradicate the virus through quarantine, and everywhere else experienced or is experiencing an epidemic. So why does the US have so many cases compared to other places, why does it look so bad? Beyond of course just the size of the country and rate of testing, the US does appear to have been hurt more by covid-19, but that decidedly isn't true. You don't get big spike at the beginning like Europe and then it comes back down and pretend not that many people died. There are plenty of anecdotes of over-reporting in the US and under-reporting in places like Spain, but it's gotta be really heinous.
And like, we'll see what the actual result is here too. We know better now who to protect, how to protect them, and how to keep people alive through the virus than we did months ago. And I think this is the first time and possibly only time we'll really get to see somewhere go through the worst of the pandemic in their area while having adequate testing to track it. We know most places hit early caught like 1/10th of the infections at most, they'll probably find a much higher percentage of infections this time.
The US is now consistanty over 40k cases. That is worse than ever before. The trend is bad.
And it has gotten worse since then. As said, the Us is now over 40k every day, sometimes scratching 50k.
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My Dad mentioned some stuff to me, I dunno if its true, that there a lot of things USA could have done to stop this that their law simply doesn't allow. Like that they aren't allowed to ban travel to the UK. Or that they can't shut down interstate borders
It kind of sounds like all the restrictions on the power of leaders, while probably usually quite good corruption proofing, are messing things up during this crisis. Is that accurate?
It kind of sounds like all the restrictions on the power of leaders, while probably usually quite good corruption proofing, are messing things up during this crisis. Is that accurate?
This is something I was thinking about too. Everyone was talking about how South Korea did a great job handling this but how much of their efforts would be illegal if done in the USA?
USA
That isn't actually true. The US did have a travel ban from the UK, Trump only did not initially include the UK and Ireland because he was trying to protect his resorts revenue, but then later added them to the list at the time due to pressure of rising cases.
U.S. Travel Ban for U.K. Citizens Will Likely to Last For Months, Says Anthony Fauci
The ban on British travellers entering the United States is likely to last for months, according to Dr Anthony Fauci
variety.com
States DID have checkpoints at interstate borders as well:
"DPS "checkpoints" underway at Louisiana state line, anyone ... travel back and forth over the state border will need to get a letter from the state "
COVID-19 checkpoints may result in backups crossing into Texas
Louisiana State Police issued a traffic advisory Sunday morning warning of potential traffic congestion when traveling west into Texas from Louisiana.
www.12newsnow.com
" Some states and municipalities are setting up border checkpoints and ... allow in residents and essential employees while turning others away."
The Open Road Calls, but Authorities Say ‘Stop’
The U.S. Constitution ensures the “right to travel,” but during the coronavirus pandemic, state and local officials are increasingly telling drivers to stay home.
The government is extended " extra permissions" under the law that would not normally apply when a national emergency is declared, such as a pandemic, natural disaster or in a time of war, so there is really nothing that would be required that wouldn't stand up legally in a court of law with the emergency declaration being in place at the time. People can sue, but that does not mean they will win.
State of emergency - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
Houston is resorting to putting COVID-19 patients in children's hospitals now as other hospitals are reaching ICU capacity.
:watermark(cdn.texastribune.org/media/watermarks/2020.png,-0,30,0)/static.texastribune.org/media/files/dc45acf092ebdf2d31f6cf78354fd75f/Uhland%20Covid%20Testing%20JV%20TT%2010.jpg)
www.texastribune.org
www.khou.com
www.khou.com
Dallas is still good on our ICU capacity. Most of the new cases are in the under 35 crowd that refuses to stay at home or wear masks thinking they are invincible, not realizing that many their age still have severe long term illness and complications, severe and other side effects they were not aware that could affect them. Simply because they are less likely to die does not mean they are immune to it's impact.
www.hopkinsmedicine.org
Texas is heading down a dangerous path, local leaders warn as coronavirus cases and hospitalizations surge
When Gov. Greg Abbott let businesses start reopening, he pointed to two metrics as encouraging signs: the hospitalization rate and the infection rate. Both of those metrics are on the rise in Texas.
www.texastribune.org
100 percent of regular ICU beds in Texas Medical Center occupied, but hospitals have space for surge
A little over a quarter of the ICU beds are taken by COVID-19 patents, and hospitals are converting regular rooms to critical care.
www.khou.com
Texas Children's Hospital admitting adult patients to free up hospital beds in Houston
One pediatrician tweeted that she is up for the challenge, but she also asked the public to wear a mask and stay home.
www.khou.com
Dallas is still good on our ICU capacity. Most of the new cases are in the under 35 crowd that refuses to stay at home or wear masks thinking they are invincible, not realizing that many their age still have severe long term illness and complications, severe and other side effects they were not aware that could affect them. Simply because they are less likely to die does not mean they are immune to it's impact.
Coronavirus and COVID-19: Younger Adults Are at Risk, Too
Early reports indicated that young people were more likely to have milder cases of the disease. But that view may be changing.
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Very good post. I specifically quoted this because I've been saying it from the start. If you take like a 3 - 5 years statistic of total deaths than quarantine or no quarantine will make not one iota of difference. There might be a spike but the next year it evens out because the vast majority of covid patients was already very old or very sick and most likely both. The inevatible will have just been delayed with a few months. And like sure, that is worth something but when resources are scarce and delayed/cancelled operations costs more life years lost than covid and the economic damages are also significant you can argue if the benefits weigh up to the costs. Espescially in the long term which applies to an endemic virus.
Why not just have low risk avoid high risk? Problem solved. This is going to take years so unless people want to remain cocooned in their houses for years on end this is the only way forward. Even if they have a vaccine within a few years it will still only be availabe for high risk for atleast another year afterward.
How do you have low risk avoid high risk? Due to the decades of rapidly increasing wealth inequality, we have more people than ever being forced to live with their parents, grandkids living with the grandparents, an inability of Elderly to be provided for and care for themselves and are being cared for by their children and grandchildren. We have children and young adults with preexisting conditions that make them vulnerable. Those with preexisting conditions actually need to visit high risk areas MORE often than others due to requiring regular doctors visits and treatments to keep their medical issues under control. States are forcing people back into high risk jobs regardless of whether they are high risk or live with someone who is high risk. The ONLY way to protect those that are high risk is for those who are low risk to take it upon themselves to do so by wearing masks and making sure they are not spreading it all over the place so that when those who are high risk are forced to have to go pick up their medications, go to the dentist or put gas in their car and go to their doctor's office, it is safe for them to do so.
For First Time in Modern Era, Living With Parents Edges Out Other Living Arrangements for 18- to 34-Year-Olds
For the first time since 1880, Americans ages 18 to 34 are more likely to be living with their parent(s) than in a household shared with a spouse or partner.
www.pewsocialtrends.org
Millennials' habits are threatening countless industries — but a new report says it's only because they're poorer than their parents
A new study finds that millennials aren't actually different from Gen Xers or baby boomers in how they spend their money — they just have less of it.
www.businessinsider.com
To make it worse, those most at risk who have severe breathing issues may be unable to wear a mask at all to be able to protect themselves, so the ONLY way to protect them is for everyone ELSE to wear them:
Risks of N95 Face Mask Use in Subjects With COPD
BACKGROUND: The N95 filtering facepiece respirator (FFR) is the most popular individual protective device to reduce exposure to particulate matter. However, concerns have been raised with regard to its use because it can increase respiratory resistance and dead space. Therefore, this study...
rc.rcjournal.com
What we are dealing with is that those who are choosing not to wear masks or socially distance are the people who are causing the deaths of those who are unable to protect themselves.
Many live in conditions like my grandmother did before she passed away. My uncle, his wife and children moved in with her to help take care of her as she became too old to care for herself. My grandmother shared a queen size bed with my young niece, who after she survived a car accident was afraid to be alone at night due to her brain trauma and would scream out at night . My grandmother would comfort her so she could go back to sleep. My two cousins, both young adults, shared the 2nd bedroom and my uncle, who is also disabled, and his wife slept in the 3rd. They all shared the two bathrooms in the home. This is how many families live these days. There is no place to quarantine inside their homes. There is no way to keep them safe from one another. It took the combined incomes of my two young adult cousins and my aunt in order for them to barely make ends meet each month, with no money left over for savings. This is just the reality for many Americans in the US due to financial restraints preventing them from being able to have more. There are plenty of families in even far worse living arrangements than they were as well.
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OH.. And due to the abhorrent state of healthcare access in the US, most people with preexisting conditions are actually undiagnosed. They literally have no idea they have these conditions that put them at risk because the biggest bottleneck for access to care is inability to pay the insurance copay to be able to get the tests needed in order to determine what condition they have in the first place. Most people cannot come up with the $800 copay for the tests, so they simply do not receive the tests, thus cannot receive the treatment and continue to not have any idea what conditions they have.
www.cnbc.com
www.theguardian.com
Nearly 1 in 4 Americans are skipping medical care because of the cost
Over the past year, 22% of Americans say they have steered clear of some sort of medical care because of the expense, according to a new survey.
The Americans dying because they can't afford medical care
Millions of Americans – as many as 25% of the population – are delaying getting medical help because of skyrocketing costs
www.theguardian.com
That's not quite accurate. The deaths aren't all inevitable. The infections likely are, but how rapid-fire they occur, of quickly we can identify them, and how proficiently we can treat them are all going to effect the death toll. There was a solid point made in this thread a couple days ago that putting it off allows for advances in treatment that do matter.
Don't think of it in terms of economic damages. Economic damage isn't inherently important, it's only very important as a proxy variable for the things we do care about. Like, we can get funds back in the right places after the pandemic, that's not that hard, but turning off businesses kills people down the line regardless.
I'm not sure you read my post before posting that. a) There is no "US trend" to be bad. The US is not one trend. B) It's not definitely worse than ever before. It might be, but you can't know that. That first peak is what we caught with objectively inadequate testing. C) If the infections were eventually going to come and hit like 10% of people anyway, better or worse aren't necessarily things. They held this off for months, they had plenty of time to prepare. Despite the negativity about Texas expressed above, reading those articles tells you that Texas has surge capacity prepared that they haven't had to use for covid until now. And using space at children's hospitals is smart, it's going to prevent a ton of deaths that would happen if they mixed patients in with the elderly like other states did.
I'm sure there will be a rise in US deaths to follow this rise in cases, but I highly doubt we'll come near the severity of the first peak.
That isn't true. The president has very broad powers over border enforcement, especially during a state of national emergency.
He's not allowed to shut the borders completely arbitrarily: he's bound by laws on discrimination, claiming asylum etc. that may restrict his options in ways, but he can most certainly shut the border to any country to prevent spread of disease.
I'd bet anything SK did would be possible in the USA, under state of emergency laws if necessary.
The issue for the USA is almost certainly not whether it could be legally done, but whether the population would tolerate it. I think it would require a much greater level of threat than covid-19 to quell the suspicion amongst many Americans of excessive government power.
Well, do you mean illegal illegal or just nominally illegal? Cause Trump isn't above breaking the law if it suits him.
In times of national emergency or war, you will find that the government - at all levels - have got broad, sweeping powers they may enact to bring the state of emergency to a halt as soon as possible, or be able to conduct their wartime operations.
So in short, no they would not be illegal, if the circumstances met the requirements to enact a state of emergency. Maybe CM will weigh in with that fantastic lawyer brain of his to back up or correct this statement.
Sorry to hear but yeah you're right if low risk lives with high risk that is still a problem. I also definitely agree high risk should not be forced to work in places where they are exposed. But what if they had smarter policies like for example give high risk a basic income as long as needed(should be easy to determine per medical record) coupled with most covid patients already being way past retirement. They could even compensate for any adult childeren that may live with them. it would be a much cheaper solution than these indefinite lockdowns or insane government spending that sacrifices the next generation with an astronomical state deficit and potential currency devaluation(Italy, Greece, Spain etc for example are going down the shitter). You could implement all this for chump change compared to all the spending currently going on. You have to plan for the long term which they don't do and this is the mistake.How do you have low risk avoid high risk? Due to the decades of rapidly increasing wealth inequality, we have more people than ever being forced to live with their parents, grandkids living with the grandparents, an inability of Elderly to be provided for and care for themselves and are being cared for by their children and grandchildren. We have children and young adults with preexisting conditions that make them vulnerable. Those with preexisting conditions actually need to visit high risk areas MORE often than others due to requiring regular doctors visits and treatments to keep their medical issues under control. States are forcing people back into high risk jobs regardless of whether they are high risk or live with someone who is high risk. The ONLY way to protect those that are high risk is for those who are low risk to take it upon themselves to do so by wearing masks and making sure they are not spreading it all over the place so that when those who are high risk are forced to have to go pick up their medications, go to the dentist or put gas in their car and go to their doctor's office, it is safe for them to do so.
For First Time in Modern Era, Living With Parents Edges Out Other Living Arrangements for 18- to 34-Year-Olds
For the first time since 1880, Americans ages 18 to 34 are more likely to be living with their parent(s) than in a household shared with a spouse or partner.
Millennials' habits are threatening countless industries — but a new report says it's only because they're poorer than their parents
A new study finds that millennials aren't actually different from Gen Xers or baby boomers in how they spend their money — they just have less of it.
To make it worse, those most at risk who have severe breathing issues may be unable to wear a mask at all to be able to protect themselves, so the ONLY way to protect them is for everyone ELSE to wear them:
Risks of N95 Face Mask Use in Subjects With COPD
BACKGROUND: The N95 filtering facepiece respirator (FFR) is the most popular individual protective device to reduce exposure to particulate matter. However, concerns have been raised with regard to its use because it can increase respiratory resistance and dead space. Therefore, this study...
What we are dealing with is that those who are choosing not to wear masks or socially distance are the people who are causing the deaths of those who are unable to protect themselves.
Many live in conditions like my grandmother did before she passed away. My uncle, his wife and children moved in with her to help take care of her as she became too old to care for herself. My grandmother shared a queen size bed with my young niece, who after she survived a car accident was afraid to be alone at night due to her brain trauma and would scream out at night . My grandmother would comfort her so she could go back to sleep. My two cousins, both young adults, shared the 2nd bedroom and my uncle, who is also disabled, and his wife slept in the 3rd. They all shared the two bathrooms in the home. This is how many families live these days. There is no place to quarantine inside their homes. There is no way to keep them safe from one another. It took the combined incomes of my two young adult cousins and my aunt in order for them to barely make ends meet each month, with no money left over for savings. This is just the reality for many Americans in the US due to financial restraints preventing them from being able to have more. There are plenty of families in even far worse living arrangements than they were as well.
Also I don't know about masks. From what I understand they are more symbolic. It's actually dangerous if at-risk people think they are a proper alternative for distancing when really all it does is provide a false sense of safety. If you want zero risk really distancing is the only thing that works. Though given how extremely infectious respiratory viruses are it is still inevatible everyone will come into contact with it sooner or later.
A state of emergency violates constitutional rights that's why it's an 'emergency'. A democratic government can't operate under these terms for an indefinite amount of time because otherwise it could just be overturned by a court ruling(I believe that already happened somewhere in the U.S. a while back). Sooner or later these emergency procedures need to be codified into law and this is where the cultural differences come into play. Asian cultures are more about the group and the collective so they easily comply with legislation that infringes on personal freedoms while the U.S. is the complete opposite. The 'Asian approach' will simple never work there because the people are completely different.
Culture is just much more important in containing a virus than government policies. People themselves need to be responsible. A country like Japan can be fairly lax with lockdowns etc because people are more polite and give eachother space and the country is also homogenous as shit. South America for example has lockdowns when the virus is at a low point and now when people have ran out of money and the virus is at it's peak they go out to work again. Makes absolutely zero sense. Ofcourse, you can't blame the people because most work in the informal economy but it just shows how stupid governments are and people believe they are 'correct' when really all common sense is thrown out the window. Then there are places like the Fillipines and El-Salvador where covid is just used as an excuse to roll out the police state but I guess that's a different matter altogether.
The flawed logic of that is that bad "first waves" happened when everyone was on the back on their heels so-to-speak. Now, that is not acceptable when you know the virus is here and how to keep the spread down. In 2 days, Florida has more infections than the entirety of Japan over the course of the whole pandemic and Japan has over 10 times the population of Florida. And the excuse for the protests causing the spike in infections is debunked by Minnesota's own numbers.
Also, the number of infections and hospitalizations we're seeing now is less than what we will be seeing in a couple weeks because of the incubation period of the virus.
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I agree, going to fully open in a place without developed immunity is stupid. BUT we don't actually know what is bad at this point. It's basically impossible to compare now to before based on testing results, it's not like a controlled experiment. It's going to take some hindsight to see what comes of this. But yes, states that hadn't been hit hard should have been opening slower, not faster.
On the subject of Minnesota's own numbers debunking that protests helped push the spike in infection, it doesn't debunk it. What I'm trying to get across here is that the biggest factor in this current growth is how much you've already been through. Testing is inconsistent across regions, so I'm going to look at deaths per million as a more reliable number. And the couple week delay in deaths actually means we get a reasonable picture of where these states were before the protests using up to date death numbers, and then compare it to recent case trends.
New York has had 1617 deaths per million, and it's trend is essentially unimpacted by recent events.
Maryland has had 524 deaths per million, and it's still trending slightly downward, though it looks like it flexed recently.
Minnesota has had 259 deaths per million. It's case count was dropping and now flattened out.
Washington has had 172 deaths per million. It's trend was rising and has accelerated.
Florida has had 159 deaths per million. It's case count has shot up.
Texas has had 83 deaths per million. We're currently talking about it using up all it's intensive care units in Houston.
If you assemble lots of people together, you likely cause an outbreak inversely proportional to how much pandemic you've already suffered through. Minnesota fits the pattern right where you'd expect it to.
I understand that the more people who have gotten infected equals out to the virus being harder to spread, but every state eventually getting to say New York's numbers over time is not good or fine or what should be expected. Much of New York's numbers came from the virus being around with everyone doing things as normal and no guidelines whatsoever in place. Following simple guidelines (and not the drastic solution of sheltering at home) based on what we've learned over the last 6+ months will keep the virus spread much lower than it was at the beginning. What's happening in Florida is not acceptable even if Florida had 0 actual infections (and 0 immunity) before this latest spike. Even what happened in New York was unacceptable even at that time, enough was known even then to where that shouldn't have happened.
The virus is really hard to spread outside, that's why the protests shouldn't have too much of an impact. The current spike in Florida and non-spike in Minnesota has really nothing to do with Minnesota being hit harder than Florida by the virus beforehand. If the protests are the main cause for the huge spike in Florida, Minnesota should be getting hit much harder by the virus right now.
The US is overall doing pretty damn bad with regards to the virus as the US has the 7th highest deaths per million in all the world. And, from looking up the current trend in a couple of the countries that are worse than the US (and the current trend in the US), the US will most likely only be climbing on that list.
Unless Minnesota has substantially broader immunity to the virus before the current rise, which it should, because it was hit harder beforehand, as evidenced by 60% more deaths per million, in spite of Florida having the highest percent of its population over 65 of any state.
I have little faith in the accuracy of those numbers, I don't expect many other countries to report covid deaths as broadly as the US is. If you see a nation that had roughly the same spike trends as Italy or New York, but they claim to have way fewer deaths per capita, they probably just weren't recording the deaths. Analyzing covid deaths from the perspective of excess deaths over recent years is a method with its own faults, but it is a pretty good proxy for how broadly nations are attributing deaths to covid-19, and places like Belgium or Sweden which are above the US on that list have a close match between their reported deaths and the excess over expected deaths, where much of the rest of Europe is pretty shaky (in the places you can find that data).
And you'd do well to pay attention to the places that are below the US and climbing. Nations that are two months behind aren't comparable yet. It will take a full year before we can see the big picture.
Assuming acquired immunity, of course. Unfortunately, that's currently in question. Getting the coronavirus once may not actually mean you can't get it again. Also trying to do this without vaccines or quarantine and social distancing measures means that a lot more people have to get sick and die before an equilibrium is achieved. People tend to throw around the phrase "herd immunity" not only without properly understanding what that means in a medical context, but also not realizing that we already have several large-scale examples of what happens when an outbreak is left to burn itself out. Just ask the Native Americans.