2019-2020 coronavirus pandemic (Vaccination 2021 Edition)

[lil devils x]

So now My mom is in one Hospital in Dallas and my Brother is in another Hospital in Dallas with COVID-19 now and I was originally just going in for imaging and to schedule my surgery, but it looks like they will be instead doing emergency surgery on my sinuses this morning instead YAY! This video would be funny if it were not so terrifyingly on point right now:
( Offensive Language Warning)

AND yea, having people thinking that it only affects obese people pretty much falls flat when my 140lb brother is severely ill in the hospital with it right now.

 

[Buyetyen]

Holy shit! I hope you and your family recover quickly.

 

[lil devils x]

Holy shit! I hope you and your family recover quickly.

Thanks. Me too.

snipped for space

I have surgery today so I will be brief but wanted to address a few of your issues here:
1) From all the data I have reviewed, yes there really are numerous strains. Luckily though most of those are not anything to be more concerned about.
2) The death rate IS significantly higher in the US than other nations.
3) The reason I keep bringing up the " long haulers" is because from all of the preliminary data I have been reviewing on ongoing studies, We already have been aware that there is actually a significant portion of COVID-19 patients who are continuing to have symptoms weeks and even months later. I am authorized to see much of the data I review, so you have to wait for it to be made public to see what I have already seen for a while now. Luckily the CDC is finally acknowledging what healthcare providers all over the world have already been aware of for months now:

However, according to a new report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention over one-third of coronavirus patients with milder cases of the virus and no preexisting conditions don't actually snap back from their infection, experiencing symptoms that don't go away.

1 in 3 COVID-19 Patients Have These Symptoms, Says CDC

A third of patients with mild symptoms having prolonged symptoms is not a small number here as you seem to think it is. We currently have concerns that COVID-19 may have a longer impact on people's health than we are currently aware of. Of course we will not better understand the long term impact on patients health until we are 20+ years down the road here, but the recurring. lingering and unusual symptoms are extremely concerning as we have had a wide range of symptoms from everything from chicken pox like blisters to heart attacks and strokes here.

 

[Phoenixmgs]

I have surgery today so I will be brief but wanted to address a few of your issues here:
1) From all the data I have reviewed, yes there really are numerous strains. Luckily though most of those are not anything to be more concerned about.
2) The death rate IS significantly higher in the US than other nations.
3) The reason I keep bringing up the " long haulers" is because from all of the preliminary data I have been reviewing on ongoing studies, We already have been aware that there is actually a significant portion of COVID-19 patients who are continuing to have symptoms weeks and even months later. I am authorized to see much of the data I review, so you have to wait for it to be made public to see what I have already seen for a while now. Luckily the CDC is finally acknowledging what healthcare providers all over the world have already been aware of for months now:

1 in 3 COVID-19 Patients Have These Symptoms, Says CDC

A third of patients with mild symptoms having prolonged symptoms is not a small number here as you seem to think it is. We currently have concerns that COVID-19 may have a longer impact on people's health than we are currently aware of. Of course we will not better understand the long term impact on patients health until we are 20+ years down the road here, but the recurring. lingering and unusual symptoms are extremely concerning as we have had a wide range of symptoms from everything from chicken pox like blisters to heart attacks and strokes here.

Hope your surgery went well.

1) Mutations don't equal strains. There's argument over whether the 2 main strains are even strains. The overall point is that the chances the virus mutating so much that the currently worked on vaccines won't work is extremely slim.

2) It's really hard to compare death rates among countries. Hell, you have to do some major number research to find the US's actual death rate. According to Statista, the US is 47th of 146 countries but those numbers aren't very accurate as it shows the UK at a 15% death rate. Every country's testing and death recording varies greatly. Just doing some basic adjustments for the US, it's way lower than the "official" 3%. I don't feel like looking up excess deaths in the US and comparing to reported deaths (tstorm did say that excess deaths aren't well over like they were before in the early months), but I'll just basically double the US death rate to 6% to account for underreported deaths (probably worst case scenario). Then, you have to apply that at least 10x the official count has gotten infected so that reduces the death rate to 0.6%. I'm almost certainly adding too many deaths and probably not adding enough for the actual infections and the death rate is still well below 1%.

3) The thing with long haulers is that if someone just has a lingering cough for an extra week or two, they're considered a long hauler vs those people that literally can't really do anything for weeks or months. I had a lingering cough in December of 2018 just from a common cold (which didn't impede my ability at all) whereas if I had the exact same thing with Covid, I would be considered a long hauler. A friend of mine this year had a lingering cough for about a month from the flu, so that would be a long hauler as well. Even then when we crunch the numbers for long haulers being a 1/3 of all patients (which I'll just use the official infection number as "patients" and bump it up to 5 million for easier math), you end up with 1.65 million that would be considered long haulers. And then, 1.65 million of 50 million estimated actual infections, you end up with 3% of infections causing prolonged symptoms (which again can range from a lingering cough to not being able to do much of anything in severity).

 

[Johnny Novgorod]

Day 138 of quarantine.

 

[Tireseas]

Woke up to this news: Russia claimed it has developed a potential vaccine. Health officials around the world are deeply concerned that, assuming they are even being truthful in the first place, they bypassed critical safety checks necessary to determine that it's safe for further human trials.

 

[Agema]

Woke up to this news: Russia claimed it has developed a potential vaccine. Health officials around the world are deeply concerned that, assuming they are even being truthful in the first place, they bypassed critical safety checks necessary to determine that it's safe for further human trials.

Indeed. It's much easier and faster to get a vaccine onto the market without properly verifying its efficacy and safety.

What this seems to me, is a stupid and flashy headline-grabber "we're first" to pretend that Russia can still mix it with the big boys. Viewed as this sort of a PR stunt, it doesn't matter whether the vaccine is significantly used. It's only any use in countries that don't have such standards, because it just won't even be accepted. I hope it is safe and effective for the sake of everyone who might get it, but I'd rather wait for one that passes our regulatory standards for my own use.

 

[Tireseas]

Indeed. It's much easier and faster to get a vaccine onto the market without properly verifying its efficacy and safety.

What this seems to me, is a stupid and flashy headline-grabber "we're first" to pretend that Russia can still mix it with the big boys. Viewed as this sort of a PR stunt, it doesn't matter whether the vaccine is significantly used. It's only any use in countries that don't have such standards, because it just won't even be accepted. I hope it is safe and effective for the sake of everyone who might get it, but I'd rather wait for one that passes our regulatory standards for my own use.

Ironically, the presence of a vaccine, even a faulty or dangerous one, can act as a destabilizing element as uninformed idiots, anti-government, anti-establishment, and conspiracy mongers (of which there are many overlapping groups between them all) would likely use the news to further their various conspiratorial claims about the pandemic.

 

[SupahEwok]

Indeed. It's much easier and faster to get a vaccine onto the market without properly verifying its efficacy and safety.

What this seems to me, is a stupid and flashy headline-grabber "we're first" to pretend that Russia can still mix it with the big boys. Viewed as this sort of a PR stunt, it doesn't matter whether the vaccine is significantly used. It's only any use in countries that don't have such standards, because it just won't even be accepted. I hope it is safe and effective for the sake of everyone who might get it, but I'd rather wait for one that passes our regulatory standards for my own use.

Or maybe this is Putin having Trump's number, and knowing that either he'll get Trump to buy up tons of this Russian vaccine even if nobody will let him roll it out into our healthcare, or that Trump will feel the pinch of not giving the world it's miracle cure and will try to ram an American vaccine into our system, demolishing regulations, and creating more political instability in the US as there's a fight whether to use the vaccine or not.

 

[tstorm823]

Or maybe this is Putin having Trump's number, and knowing that either he'll get Trump to buy up tons of this Russian vaccine even if nobody will let him roll it out into our healthcare, or that Trump will feel the pinch of not giving the world it's miracle cure and will try to ram an American vaccine into our system, demolishing regulations, and creating more political instability in the US as there's a fight whether to use the vaccine or not.

I mean, we did the same dance with early testing. The US turned down tests the rest of the world was using because it didn't meet US standards. We're not going to suddenly do the opposite for a vaccine.

 

[Agema]

I mean, we did the same dance with early testing. The US turned down tests the rest of the world was using because it didn't meet US standards. We're not going to suddenly do the opposite for a vaccine.

I prefer to think of it that the early US test didn't meet the rest of the world standards, because of not actually working.

Ironically, the presence of a vaccine, even a faulty or dangerous one, can act as a destabilizing element as uninformed idiots, anti-government, anti-establishment, and conspiracy mongers (of which there are many overlapping groups between them all) would likely use the news to further their various conspiratorial claims about the pandemic.

Agreed. A bad vaccine is worst than no vaccine, by undermining the faith in vaccination.

Or maybe this is Putin having Trump's number, and knowing that either he'll get Trump to buy up tons of this Russian vaccine even if nobody will let him roll it out into our healthcare,

I dare say Putin might be interested in selling millions of doses of vaccines to somewhere, but it won't be the USA, EU, etc. Honestly, I think very few countries will take this vaccine. Early evidence suggests its development involved ethical breaches, and ominously, key data has not been revealed for scrutiny. These are such massive problems for the vaccine to be widely used that I simply cannot credit it as an attempt to make much money, hence why I think it's a PR campaign. The other thing of course is the name of this vaccine, "Sputnik": that's designed with the obvious implication of "we beat you to the first satellite, too".

Maybe they have a genuine product, but no chance of getting it done (the proper way) before well into 2021, at which point it would just be one lost in the masses, and probably inferior to at least another released around the same time and still make little money. So they may as well make a PR splash.

There's a fair chance that at the point a vaccine becomes available for the USA, Trump will have lost the election. Currently the frontrunner seems to be the Oxford vaccine, which was originally suggested for September but I think now drifting towards Oct/Nov, may slip further, and most of the rest are definitely 2021. I'm not sure how Trump would respond if one arrived before his likely departure. My gut feeling is that "America First" Trump, who has never shown much care about the lives of his citizens, would prefer to wait a few months for a US vaccine rather than hand money off to other countries. However, if a non-US vaccine were cleared for use before the election, he might decide buying loads of it could shift public opinion favourably and splash out.

 

[Dalisclock]

Maybe they have a genuine product, but no chance of getting it done (the proper way) before well into 2021, at which point it would just be one lost in the masses, and probably inferior to at least another released around the same time and still make little money. So they may as well make a PR splash.

There's a fair chance that at the point a vaccine becomes available for the USA, Trump will have lost the election. Currently the frontrunner seems to be the Oxford vaccine, which was originally suggested for September but I think now drifting towards Oct/Nov, may slip further, and most of the rest are definitely 2021. I'm not sure how Trump would respond if one arrived before his likely departure. My gut feeling is that "America First" Trump, who has never shown much care about the lives of his citizens, would prefer to wait a few months for a US vaccine rather than hand money off to other countries. However, if a non-US vaccine were cleared for use before the election, he might decide buying loads of it could shift public opinion favourably and splash out.

Even after one is ready, we still need to get enough doses to distribute and it has to be affordable enough for most people to actually get it. A vaccine a fraction of the population can afford is useless other to benefit the wealthy.

That's gonna take time and require government or someone else agreeing to absorb the cost of the vaccine to expedite deployment.

I'm not even gonna get into the chucklefucks who claim they aren't gonna get the vaccine no matter how safe it ends up being, who are probably the same people throwing tantrums about masks.

 

[CaitSeith]

Day 138 of quarantine.

Day 146: the lack of zombies outside my door is worrisome...

 

[Agema]

Even after one is ready, we still need to get enough doses to distribute and it has to be affordable enough for most people to actually get it. A vaccine a fraction of the population can afford is useless other to benefit the wealthy.

The wealthy will be able to access it faster irrespective of what the government does. Let's imagine the first decent vaccine is initially only released in the UK. Some will be acquired by the UK private sector, and the first thing some British private clinics will do is shove a box ot two of theirs straight back out in the mail to an international purchaser for umpteen times the price it was originally bought for. Or some boxes will simply "fall off the back of a lorry", and mysteriously end up in the offices of NY/Dubai/Singapore medical practices with limited morality and elite clients.

I'm not even gonna get into the chucklefucks who claim they aren't gonna get the vaccine no matter how safe it ends up being, who are probably the same people throwing tantrums about masks.

Well, I live relatively content in the knowledge we'll probably only need 60% vaccinated to make covid-19 trivial, and I'll bet you uptake will be high amongst oldsters who are at the most risk, so there's a lot of tolerance for chucklefucks.

 

[Dalisclock]

Well, I live relatively content in the knowledge we'll probably only need 60% vaccinated to make covid-19 trivial, and I'll bet you uptake will be high amongst oldsters who are at the most risk, so there's a lot of tolerance for chucklefucks.

Sadly, there will still be the sad cases of people like my stepmom who is both a senior citizen and thinks Covid-19 is a hoax. She's also a Trumper, so no surprise there. OTOH, I can't say I'm going to be shocked if she ends up getting it, nor will I be sympathetic.

There's also the factor I imagine most, if not all, schools will require the kids to be vaccinated within a reasonable amount of time for them to attend school(like schools generally already do), so it will be a choice between people getting their kids vaccinated and home/private schooling them(assuming said private schools allow them to go unvaccinated).

 

[stroopwafel]

Even after one is ready, we still need to get enough doses to distribute and it has to be affordable enough for most people to actually get it. A vaccine a fraction of the population can afford is useless other to benefit the wealthy.

That's gonna take time and require government or someone else agreeing to absorb the cost of the vaccine to expedite deployment.

I'm not even gonna get into the chucklefucks who claim they aren't gonna get the vaccine no matter how safe it ends up being, who are probably the same people throwing tantrums about masks.

If there ever is a vaccine it will most certainly have limited efficacy with different vaccines for different target audiences because of different disease progression. It would also depend on the risk groups like for example people susceptible to blood clots, respiratory failure or simply poor health due to old age. It's not like there will suddenly be one miracle vaccine that 8 billion people get vaccinated by and then everyone is immune and it's back to business as usual. Maybe in a few years there will be an effective combination of various vaccines and specific anti-viral medication, available in sufficient supply, but absolutely nothing to the extent that would immunize the world population. It absolutely cannot be done. The manufacture and logistics would be impossible and the efficacy would be both limited in immunity and duration of immunity. Antibodies only persist for like 4-6 months and there would be no way to tell someone is 40% immune, 60% immune or immune at all.

Just like any coronavirus the latest one already found a reservoir in humans and is here to stay. It's just unfortunate this particular one attacks the lower airways. Just like every endemic virus it will continue to flare no matter what precautions are taken. This whole 'buying time' until the scientists come with a miracle cure like in a Hollywood movie; well I always found that a bit ridiculous. I think in general we have just forgotten our place in nature and that our influence is relative. If any lesson should be learned from this pandemic it is that we should be more considerate of the environment and animal welbeing.

I guess what ultimately will happen is that more people get infected and less deadly strains outcompete the more deadly ones through natural selection. Just like every thing that is alive(well, a virus might not technically be 'alive' but it has proteins and genetic material so I guess it's a matter of semantics) it wants to propagate itself. Unfortunately there is no real way of stopping that. People want control but the Covid crisis have shown how illusory that control really is. An antibiotic resistant bacteria is also waiting to happen and what then? Put a sock before your mouth to try and keep the plague out? xD

 

[tstorm823]

If there ever is a vaccine it will most certainly have limited efficacy with different vaccines for different target audiences because of different disease progression. It would also depend on the risk groups like for example people susceptible to blood clots, respiratory failure or simply poor health due to old age. It's not like there will suddenly be one miracle vaccine that 8 billion people get vaccinated by and then everyone is immune and it's back to business as usual. Maybe in a few years there will be an effective combination of various vaccines and specific anti-viral medication, available in sufficient supply, but absolutely nothing to the extent that would immunize the world population. It absolutely cannot be done. The manufacture and logistics would be impossible and the efficacy would be both limited in immunity and duration of immunity. Antibodies only persist for like 4-6 months and there would be no way to tell someone is 40% immune, 60% immune or immune at all.

Just like any coronavirus the latest one already found a reservoir in humans and is here to stay. It's just unfortunate this particular one attacks the lower airways. Just like every endemic virus it will continue to flare no matter what precautions are taken. This whole 'buying time' until the scientists come with a miracle cure like in a Hollywood movie; well I always found that a bit ridiculous. I think in general we have just forgotten our place in nature and that our influence is relative. If any lesson should be learned from this pandemic it is that we should be more considerate of the environment and animal welbeing.

I guess what ultimately will happen is that more people get infected and less deadly strains outcompete the more deadly ones through natural selection. Just like every thing that is alive(well, a virus might not technically be 'alive' but it has proteins and genetic material so I guess it's a matter of semantics) it wants to propagate itself. Unfortunately there is no real way of stopping that. People want control but the Covid crisis have shown how illusory that control really is. An antibiotic resistant bacteria is also waiting to happen and what then? Put a sock before your mouth to try and keep the plague out? xD

Sounds like you're the sort of silly person who would identify and accept the things you cannot change.

 

[Agema]

If there ever is a vaccine it will most certainly have limited efficacy with different vaccines for different target audiences because of different disease progression. It would also depend on the risk groups like for example people susceptible to blood clots, respiratory failure or simply poor health due to old age. It's not like there will suddenly be one miracle vaccine that 8 billion people get vaccinated by and then everyone is immune and it's back to business as usual. Maybe in a few years there will be an effective combination of various vaccines and specific anti-viral medication, available in sufficient supply, but absolutely nothing to the extent that would immunize the world population. It absolutely cannot be done.

Maybe. But on the other hand we really did effectively eliminate things like smallpox and polio, so lets not be too negative.

As for antibiotic resistance, it is in large part a problem with the economic model. It costs a huge amount of money (particularly including the cost of failures) to develop an antibiotic, with companies only having about 10-15 years of patent life to recoup their costs. Unfortunately, antibiotics are short-term treatments which limits sales potential, and the trick with new antibiotics is to not prescribe them unless absolutely necessary. Consequently drugs companies largely gave up on them long ago, and it's mostly a few small biotech firms working on them.

We're already looking at new ways to develop antibiotics, often involving government and charity funding; other measures are under examination. Research into antibiotics has already kicked up a notch in the last few years, and will probably speed up more in the near future.

It is certainly true that we need to think about how to interact with the environment and look at how we deal with animals much more carefully, because (as covid-19 shows) we can probably save ourselves a lot of grief with a bit more care.

 

[Phoenixmgs]

Basically people that had SARS-COV-1 are still immune to SARS-COV-1 after 17-18 years so immunity will probably not be short-lived for SARS-COV-2. Also, immunity to SARS-COV-1 also grants immunity to SARS-COV-2. Thus, you should stop worrying about only having months of immunity to Covid-19 and getting again basically every flu season. Same thing goes for the virus mutating so much a vaccine no longer works.

 

[Tireseas]

Basically people that had SARS-COV-1 are still immune to SARS-COV-1 after 17-18 years so immunity will probably not be short-lived for SARS-COV-2. Also, immunity to SARS-COV-1 also grants immunity to SARS-COV-2. Thus, you should stop worrying about only having months of immunity to Covid-19 and getting again basically every flu season. Same thing goes for the virus mutating so much a vaccine no longer works.

I hope this bears out as even if this becomes endemic it would still be far worse than the seasonal flu.

But the reality is that we don't know enough at this point about how effective a vaccine will be, much less whether or not we will eventually have enough of a herd immunity with or without it in the medium to long term. Like, the human strain of the virus isn't even a year old for the most part and we're still discovering the longer term symptoms and damage of the disease. So I'll cross my fingers for the most part, but I suspecting it's going to continue to get worse before it gets better.