Food for thought: COVID up, flu WAY down

[Seanchaidh]

Are you seriously expecting to close down schools for as long as covid-19 isn't eradicated?

What I'm expecting is to see a lot more COVID deaths. Which was my point the whole time.

As for whether schools should remain locked down? There should be a coordinated effort-- a real one-- to stop the disease where it spreads locally (which in the United States is basically everywhere because we suck) and then we can lift restrictions. Half-measures have been prolonging things. Your appeal to the authority of what "epidemiologists" have to say I'm guessing is not all of them.

 

[Silvanus]

Then quit.

The trademark compassion is on display again i see.

 

[Agema]

Then quit. If you're irrationally afraid of contact with children despite the urging of epidemiologists, quit. Schools don't exist for the benefit of teachers.

When epidemiologists say children are less likely to suffer serious symptoms and less likely to pass on infection, it's important to remember that "less likely" does not mean "don't".

A school, with hundreds to thousands of pupils bundled together every day in classrooms with 20+ people in for six hours a day is a gift for an aerosol transmission disease, PPE or not. The basic assumption should be that if the virus is significantly doing the rounds in an area, teachers are extremely likely to contract covid-19 - and that means then the teachers' families will, too. We should understand why educators may be unhappy.

 

[tstorm823]

The trademark compassion is on display again i see.

It's not compassion to shut down the world because circumstances have changed. If a person is injured and cannot do their job, it's not compassion to halt all work entirely. In what way is this different?

A school, with hundreds to thousands of pupils bundled together every day in classrooms with 20+ people in for six hours a day is a gift for an aerosol transmission disease, PPE or not. The basic assumption should be that if the virus is significantly doing the rounds in an area, teachers are extremely likely to contract covid-19 - and that means then the teachers' families will, too. We should understand why educators may be unhappy.

Your basic assumption is just that. You're arguing as though if teachers stay home, they don't get covid, and if teachers teach in person, they likely do, and there just isn't evidence for that. There were dozens of stories at the end of summer about teachers dying of covid, and almost uniformly they had contracted it before school even started.

The rate of new cases is plummeting, with a fraction of people vaccinated, and the vaccine not even approved for minors. The evidence that children aren't major spreaders is overwhelming. Plenty of places had their schools reopened in spring and didn't see a detrimental effect. Forget your assumptions and actually think about it.

 

[Silvanus]

A school, with hundreds to thousands of pupils bundled together every day in classrooms with 20+ people in for six hours a day is a gift for an aerosol transmission disease, PPE or not. The basic assumption should be that if the virus is significantly doing the rounds in an area, teachers are extremely likely to contract covid-19 - and that means then the teachers' families will, too. We should understand why educators may be unhappy.

Plus, of course, the fact that while children tend to suffer fewer symptoms and be at lower risk, they can still act as carriers quite easily, even when asymptomatic. So we can add the families of the schoolchildren to the lift of those whose risk factor is increased by school being in session.

Businesses, commentators and (some) politicians have done quite a job of portraying essentially civic-minded caution as selfishness on the part of the public.

It's not compassion to shut down the world because circumstances have changed. If a person is injured and cannot do their job, it's not compassion to halt all work entirely. In what way is this different?

How is this different? Do you want the whole list?

 

[Phoenixmgs]

Video queued up to the schools discussion


It really is a complete tragedy that schools have been closed. The science says kids don't spread the virus. We know from studies, the school staff are more likely to spread the virus among themselves than getting it from the kids. We know that community transmission does not go up or down based on schools being open or closed. We know closing schools does more harm than having them open, that is just a fact.

Sure. Meanwhile...

Meanwhile California closed outdoor dining only causing more indoor gatherings...

 

[Seanchaidh]

We know closing schools does more harm than having them open, that is just a fact.

no

 

[dreng3]

We know closing schools does more harm than having them open, that is just a fact.

If you'd worded it as "we know closing schools does more direct harm to the children than having them open" I might've agreed with you, the entire socialization aspect of the educational system is suffering from the closing of schools.

But let us not forget that the kids might cause infections at home thus harming family members and indirectly harming themselves. There is also the issue of teachers becoming unable, or unwilling, to teach thus hindering further education, at least in the short term. And some kids will, invariably, end up experiencing either severe symptoms and long term effects, or die.

We can work on socialization over time, death and permanent injury is rather final in comparison.

 

[Agema]

The rate of new cases is plummeting, with a fraction of people vaccinated, and the vaccine not even approved for minors. The evidence that children aren't major spreaders is overwhelming. Plenty of places had their schools reopened in spring and didn't see a detrimental effect. Forget your assumptions and actually think about it.

I am thinking about it, just without the usual right wing filter of "fuck the workers, they're more expendable than the economy".

It seems from the evidence that schools are probably not major spreaders of covid-19, with the caveat that schools have frequently shut when community spread has risen. We also need to consider the age of children: primary school low, but getting more problematic for secondary schools with mid-late teens. A study from Iceland suggests that kids under 15 spread covid-19 about half as much as adults. There's a study from the Netherlands that again identifies low risk (about 15% of pupils infected within a month of the first case), but risk nonetheless. And so on. Clearly schools are nothing like as bad as packed nightclubs. But nevertheless, that big a concentration of people will have inevitable consequences, even if children spread less than adults. Plus, there's the complication of the newer UK / Brazil / South Africa variants.

There's more tolerance for schools to be open than many other places. Making sure children are educated is important. And I certainly understand parents' desire to get their damned crotch-goblins from underfoot so they can have some peace and quiet. But the way people talk about re-opening schools is frequently wholly unrealistic and we should not be rushing into it the minute that the infection rate starts dipping. Have we not learnt anything from all the many, previous examples of over-hastiness to reopen or relax measures? It is the same people again, and again, and again, and their optimism keeps turning out to be fatal (unfortunately, mostly for other people it seems).

 

[The Rogue Wolf]

It is the same people again, and again, and again, and their optimism keeps turning out to be fatal (unfortunately, mostly for other people it seems).

Their mindset is pretty clear: "The lives of thousands of other people are a small price to pay so that I can feel like things are normal again."

 

[Phoenixmgs]

no

That's not what the science, experts, and health agencies are saying.

If you'd worded it as "we know closing schools does more direct harm to the children than having them open" I might've agreed with you, the entire socialization aspect of the educational system is suffering from the closing of schools.

But let us not forget that the kids might cause infections at home thus harming family members and indirectly harming themselves. There is also the issue of teachers becoming unable, or unwilling, to teach thus hindering further education, at least in the short term. And some kids will, invariably, end up experiencing either severe symptoms and long term effects, or die.

We can work on socialization over time, death and permanent injury is rather final in comparison.

It's already been shown that schools being open doesn't influence infection numbers, thus kids are not harming others. Kids suffering severe symptoms from covid is basically as low as it can possibly get. The flu is more dangerous to them than covid and we don't keep them home over the flu (and they very much spread that!!!). Flu deaths in children are higher than covid.There's been like about 100 deaths from covid among school-aged children. Most of them, possibly all, have been from kids with already known rather major medical issues so you can obviously keep those kids home. More kids died from pox parties back in the day. More kids are dying of suicide. From the article posted below, 19 kids have committed suicide from a SINGLE school district since the pandemic started. It's not just life or death harm, it's basically everything from socialization to tons of other things like child abuse going unchecked to kids not getting all their meals. The American family is just not setup for closed schools whether we're talking traditional 2 parent households because both parents have to work or single parent households. The standard American family is not a 1950s sitcom. Many kids are going unwatched. Some kids need to take school outside of convenience stores using free wifi. The argument for schools being closed just isn't there or it boils down to it's not 100% safe. Guess what? It wasn't 100% safe before and in fact, it was actually more dangerous.

Child Psychiatrists Warn That The Pandemic May Be Driving Up Kids' Suicide Risk

A cluster of suicides in Las Vegas, plus a troubling rise in youth suicide attempts observed in ERs nationwide, is raising fears that the pandemic is fueling a children's mental health crisis.

www.npr.org

 

[Agema]

From the article posted below, 19 kids have committed suicide from a SINGLE school district since the pandemic started.

Suicides often inspire suicides in other people, so they can occur in what are called "suicide clusters". They occurred pre-pandemic, too.

There is no clear evidence suicides are on the rise - or perhaps more strictly there is varying information. And even if there is an uptick in suicide, nor do we know why and what will fix it. If people want to open schools to help improve the mental health of children then they need to call it an experiment, not a solution.

 

[dreng3]

More kids are dying of suicide. From the article posted below, 19 kids have committed suicide from a SINGLE school district since the pandemic started.

How is the rate for school shootings?

 

[Silvanus]

That's not what the science, experts, and health agencies are saying.

To be 100% clear, because it bears reiterating: what you are saying is not reflecting the scientific consensus at all. You're broadly contradicting it. You're not in line with expert thought or research on Covid epidemiology whatsoever.

 

[Seanchaidh]

That's not what the science, experts, and health agencies are saying.

"the"

 

[Phoenixmgs]

Suicides often inspire suicides in other people, so they can occur in what are called "suicide clusters". They occurred pre-pandemic, too.

There is no clear evidence suicides are on the rise - or perhaps more strictly there is varying information. And even if there is an uptick in suicide, nor do we know why and what will fix it. If people want to open schools to help improve the mental health of children then they need to call it an experiment, not a solution.

Flu kills more kids than covid. School is safer with covid than it is with the flu. If you just want simple life/death comparison, school was more dangerous before covid. Suicides and attempts are most likely on the rise as the doctor in the article says (as the numbers aren't in yet).

How is the rate for school shootings?

Covid + school shooting deaths < flu deaths (in kids)

To be 100% clear, because it bears reiterating: what you are saying is not reflecting the scientific consensus at all. You're broadly contradicting it. You're not in line with expert thought or research on Covid epidemiology whatsoever.

What studies are saying opening schools spreads covid? I'm not contradicting anything, studies show opening schools has no affect on covid spread. What experts are saying to keep the schools closed? I literally haven't seen a scientist say schools should be closed after the studies and data has come out. Michael Osterholm, the guy that wrote the book on how to handle a hypothetical pandemic starting from China in fact, said at the beginning of the pandemic that closing schools is probably not a good idea (because of several reasons) and that was at the time when we didn't have these studies at the time.

"Although asymptomatic transmission is possible, this study demonstrated that, with precautions in place, in-school transmission of SARS-CoV-2 appeared to be uncommon in this rural Wisconsin community, despite up to a 40% positive SARS-CoV-2 test rate in the surrounding county."

Scientists highlight low risk of COVID-19 spread in schools

www.cidrap.umn.edu

 

[dreng3]

Covid + school shooting deaths < flu deaths (in kids)

Hey, if
Suicides up = lockdown bad
Then
School shootings down = lockdown good

 

[Seanchaidh]

with precautions in place

you keep gliding over this, weird

 

[Silvanus]

What studies are saying opening schools spreads covid? I'm not contradicting anything, studies show opening schools has no affect on covid spread. What experts are saying to keep the schools closed? I literally haven't seen a scientist say schools should be closed after the studies and data has come out. Michael Osterholm, the guy that wrote the book on how to handle a hypothetical pandemic starting from China in fact, said at the beginning of the pandemic that closing schools is probably not a good idea (because of several reasons) and that was at the time when we didn't have these studies at the time.

Determining the optimal strategy for reopening schools, the impact of test and trace interventions, and the risk of occurrence of a second COVID-19 epidemic wave in the UK: a modelling study

To prevent a second COVID-19 wave, relaxation of physical distancing, including reopening of schools, in the UK must be accompanied by large-scale, population-wide testing of symptomatic individuals and effective tracing of their contacts, followed by isolation of diagnosed individuals.

www.thelancet.com

However, without these levels of testing and contact tracing [75% of cases tested & isolated, and 68% of their contacts traced], reopening of schools together with gradual relaxing of the lockdown measures are likely to induce a second wave that would peak in December, 2020, if schools open full-time in September, and in February, 2021, if a part-time rota system were adopted. In either case, the second wave would result in R rising above 1 and a resulting second wave of infections 2·0–2·3 times the size of the original COVID-19 wave.

Finding a path to reopen schools during the COVID-19 pandemic

As any parent knows, young children are extremely efficient at catching and passing on respiratory infections. This intuition is backed up by a raft of scientific evidence, which was greatly bolstered during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Many studies demonstrated the crucial role that...

www.thelancet.com

Panovska-Griffiths and colleagues found that reopening schools (even partially) and the accompanying return to more normal contacts is likely to lead to a second wave of infections, unless testing is scaled up significantly.

Those studies.

It's not a good idea for schools to be closed for so long. Nobody wants that to happen; researchers & healthcare practitioners readily say it would be best for them to be open. But if they are to open safely, then extensive precautions need to be in place-- significantly beyond what's currently in place in the UK and US.

Put the necessary precautions in place, and by all means, open up. But don't just ignore the former and do the latter.

 

[Agema]

Flu kills more kids than covid. School is safer with covid than it is with the flu. If you just want simple life/death comparison, school was more dangerous before covid. Suicides and attempts are most likely on the rise as the doctor in the article says (as the numbers aren't in yet).

I don't much care about the kids with regards to covid. I care about the staff, and the staff's families, and all the other people the kids and staff might pass covid-19 onto, this in the context of a bunch of people who don't work in schools deciding teachers should be exposed to covid-19.

For much the same reason I couldn't give a monkeys if 20-year-olds want to swan around getting themselves infected, cocksure about their personal safety: what pisses me off to the nth degree is that they'll spread the plague to a ton of other people who might not get away with it so lightly.