Food for thought: COVID up, flu WAY down

stroopwafel

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Yes and no. They asked for a model based on which they could plan repressive and preventive measures. Sure they took the "worst case scenario" and they clearly did that to ensure the highest buy-in for the measures among the population. But, in the face of a still largely unknown pandemic isn't that the right thing to do? This was in March... We didn't know when we'd get a vaccine, didn't have enough data to be sure about how much it would mutate, didn't have a clear idea of its fatality rate, etc.... Best is to take the worst case scenario and prepare for that.
You can be honest about the risk without misleading the public. Like Wolfgang Kubicki said it's a tactic you expect from an authoritarian state and instilling fear is the axe to our democratic constitution.

Der stellvertretende Bundesvorsitzende der FDP, Wolfgang Kubicki, sagte, das Ministerium habe Kommunikationswerkzeuge verwendet, die er „eher bei autoritären Staaten vermutet hätte“. Wer in der Bevölkerung Angst erzeugen wolle, um politische Maßnahmen besser durchsetzen zu können, lege „selbst die Axt an unsere demokratische Grundordnung.

 

Silvanus

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That's just not true. The interior ministry deliberately wanted to exaggerate the threat with the cooperation of scientists to scare people into submission so they would thank the government for lockdowns without further questions. Fear mongering was the entire purpose. It's not a 'model for worst case scenario' it's a tactic of psychological warfare. Now I won't argue about intent here but it's no surprise it feeds into sentiments that the government is dishonest about the severity of the threat.
And no.

Lying to people is not the answer. Lying to people is stupid and ridiculous. Lying to people is how you turn "please stop buying surgical masks, we need those at hospitals" into "no, you shouldn't be wearing masks, they're not important" and then deal with a year of fallout over that lie.
Probably why this model wasn't ever presented as a prediction.

Do you believe governments simply shouldn't plan for worst-case scenarios? Or that if they should, they should commission no research into what those worst-case scenarios should be? Those are the only alternatives I can see, and they're both wildly negligent.

Well, unless you believe they should commission the research, and plan for it, but also keep it all secret for the public (i.e., lying so that people feel better).
 
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Seanchaidh

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I don't agree with lying to the public, but on that score there are many bigger fish to fry than exaggerations about threat intended to protect the public. For example, downplaying of threat to protect profits at the expense of the public. Or the various deceptions of mainstream media war propaganda.
 

Agema

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That's just not true. The interior ministry deliberately wanted to exaggerate the threat with the cooperation of scientists to scare people into submission so they would thank the government for lockdowns without further questions. Fear mongering was the entire purpose. It's not a 'model for worst case scenario' it's a tactic of psychological warfare. Now I won't argue about intent here but it's no surprise it feeds into sentiments that the government is dishonest about the severity of the threat.
According to Google Translate, there is nothing in that article that states they deliberately pressured scientists into lying so they could apply excessively draconian measures. I cannot see how anything done here that substantially differentiates from a standard government procedure to model a worst case scenario for contingency planning. From that they can prepare measures, and they can prepare the public for the measures that need to be enacted to encourage adherence.

Your interpretation looks like conspiracy theory bullshit I'd expect from covid deniers.

Lying to people is not the answer. Lying to people is stupid and ridiculous. Lying to people is how you turn "please stop buying surgical masks, we need those at hospitals" into "no, you shouldn't be wearing masks, they're not important" and then deal with a year of fallout over that lie.
This line of argument is particularly inappropriate coming from you, as when it was revealed that Trump lied to the public over the severity of covid-19 allegedly to avoid panic, you delcared that to be reasonable.
 

Phoenixmgs

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I don't have an objection to a measured decisions to re-open schools based on a well conducted risk assessment, and taking into account the educationa and social needs of children. I have a problem with comments like:

"The kids don't transmit it."
"studies show opening schools has no affect on covid spread "
" The science says kids don't spread the virus."

All these sorts of statements are objectively wrong even from the studies providing evidence supportive of re-opening schools. And that's without taking into account the studies that show there is a potential risk from open schools. Lower risk is not the same as no risk: the decisions to open or close the school must reasonably be made depending on the general level of community infection, and the capability of the school to ensure infection control measures amongst staff and pupils. This is in fact the official line: the CDC absolutely does recommend monitoring, and closing schools where the risk is deemed to be too high. And I have no idea what the real expertise of people like Vinay Prasad is: he appears to be an oncologist with a sideline in journalism.
If kids transmit at any somewhat decent rate, then why do infection rates not go up or down based on school openings? I'm pretty sure you can't find any spike tied to school openings (especially under high school). We have schools in other countries that open and close regularly (vs just a summer break) and the numbers during the pandemic weren't altered when they were open or closed. There is no such thing as NO RISK. If we couldn't have schools unless there was no risk, schools would have never been a thing ever. If kids transmitted covid like the flu for instance, then you'd see quite a infection difference like you do with said flu during winter breaks. Kids are highly unlikely to spread it, is that better?

Vinay Prasad is a doctor that did the work and researched the shit out of it, asked all the experts in all the fields, and came to an extremely well thought-out and researched conclusion. If you can't agree that he's probably right (and the experts he interviewed), then I don't know what to tell you. You can go do all the work yourself if you want to, but I don't know how you're gonna say you know more on the subject that Dr. Prasad.
 

Phoenixmgs

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Until it gets out. It might work for a bit, but once discovered you've been exaggerating things, it's safe to ignore you.

On the other hand, yeah, getting the point across is not an easy thing to do.
Pretty much this. If you don't tell me something straight and I find out, I'm not gonna listen to you anymore. That's partly why the US messaging was so shit because you couldn't even trust people like Dr. Fauci anymore let alone the president. Dr. Fauci I've completely ignored for months.

The size

of

classrooms.



Yes they fucking do.
So no studies/data/experts backing up your points, ok.
 

bluegate

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I'd throw my chips in with "People are staying indoors, wearing masks and keeping distance in public places, so the flu is less likely to be spread around.".

But I'm not a virologist, so 🤷‍♂️
 

Agema

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If kids transmit at any somewhat decent rate, then why do infection rates not go up or down based on school openings?
Infection rates do go up with school opening: just not by a large amount. That's why they say things like schools are not "primary drivers" of spread: because the claim that they don't contribute to spread is untenable even in the most school opening friendly of studies. The logic of this is that schools may as well be open when infection rates are low, but should probably shut when infection rates are high. The only interesting thing is fixing the boundary between high and low.

Vinay Prasad is a doctor that did the work and researched the shit out of it, asked all the experts in all the fields, and came to an extremely well thought-out and researched conclusion.
How do you know it's extremely well thought-out if you haven't read the research? Has it been thoroughly scrutinised, and if so who by?
 

dreng3

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Lying to people is not the answer. Lying to people is stupid and ridiculous. Lying to people is how you turn "please stop buying surgical masks, we need those at hospitals" into "no, you shouldn't be wearing masks, they're not important" and then deal with a year of fallout over that lie.
That was never the damn point and you should know if you'd bothered to listen to anything Fauci said past june.

The point was that masks supposedly did nothing for non-symptomatic carriers and hence it was a waste for regular people to buy them, especially since symptomatic carriers should stay in quarantine anyway. Then more was learned about the virus and we (the reasonable and somewhat scientifically literate people) became aware that masks were useful even for the general populace.

Heck, if anything the current state of the US suggests that more lying might've been better. Instead of waiting for facts and arguing in favour of limited restrictions people should've just been told to stay home or their guts would fall out their friggin noses.
 

Kwak

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The ONS found 15 per cent of 12 to 16-year-olds and 13 per cent of those aged two to 11 still have symptoms five weeks after a positive test.

The worrying symptoms include fatigue, headaches, heart pain, muscle pain, seizures and, in extreme cases, even paralysis.

However, parents say the condition is not being taken seriously by some GPs, as most kids who contract COVID-19 have no symptoms or long-term effects.

Desperate mums and dads now fear a lack of awareness and shortcomings in testing are masking the true scale of Long COVID – also known as Post COVID Syndrome – in children.
 

Silvanus

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Vinay Prasad is a doctor that did the work and researched the shit out of it, asked all the experts in all the fields, and came to an extremely well thought-out and researched conclusion.
So, a haematologist & oncologist. Not an epidemiologist or virologist.

And no, he didn't "ask all the experts in all the fields", because that's a ludicrous exaggeration. He did some asking around and wrote a few op-eds. He doesn't represent the scientific consensus.

You keep doing this on Covid-19 issues: finding a few (quite sparse or tenuous) supportive snippets for your position, then posting them completely uncritically and exaggerating their authoritativeness.
 

Seanchaidh

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So no studies/data/experts backing up your points, ok.
I know how long six feet is and I've attended schools. The laws of physics don't magically change because some guy measured a correlation.
 

CM156

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But I'm not a virologist, so 🤷‍♂️
That's my take on this, for the most part. I started wearing a mask because people who study medicine and virology told me it was a good idea. I'll take it off when they say it's no longer necessary.

We should also stop using 6ft as the standard social distancing based on the new strains virulency
Also a good idea. And can we keep these personal space bubbles post-pandemic?
 

Trunkage

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That's my take on this, for the most part. I started wearing a mask because people who study medicine and virology told me it was a good idea. I'll take it off when they say it's no longer necessary.


Also a good idea. And can we keep these personal space bubbles post-pandemic?
I’m fine with just not leaving my house.
 

tstorm823

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This line of argument is particularly inappropriate coming from you, as when it was revealed that Trump lied to the public over the severity of covid-19 allegedly to avoid panic, you delcared that to be reasonable.
Or it's not inappropriate at all, because I can disagree with an action while defending the motivation behind the action. The argument wasn't "was his action the best option", but rather "did he pretend the pandemic wasn't serious for bad reasons", and my argument was that everything he said matched the messaging from the CDC, and Fauci insisted that Trump was basically repeating what experts told him to say, so the people arguing he was doing something malicious were, you know, full of crap.
 

Phoenixmgs

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Infection rates do go up with school opening: just not by a large amount. That's why they say things like schools are not "primary drivers" of spread: because the claim that they don't contribute to spread is untenable even in the most school opening friendly of studies. The logic of this is that schools may as well be open when infection rates are low, but should probably shut when infection rates are high. The only interesting thing is fixing the boundary between high and low.



How do you know it's extremely well thought-out if you haven't read the research? Has it been thoroughly scrutinised, and if so who by?
From this study in North Carolina. "No cases of in-school child-to-adult spread were reported." Schools will increase infections ever-so-slightly because the adults may pass it to each other, just like any other job that takes place indoors with other people.


And how do you know it's not? Because you don't like the conclusion? If we make everyone do the research and scrutinize every decision, we'd never make a decision. There's a level of trust you have to have in people to get anything done whether to open schools or some little thing at work. From the stuff that I've looked at with regards to opening schools, I'm pretty sure the vast majority of studies are saying opening schools is safe. Just google "school study covid" and pretty much every link on the 1st page is definitely leaning towards that it's safe. I have 2 friends that are teachers (one in-person, one completely virtual), one school has been open in-person the whole time (throughout the Fall/Winter wave that was worse than the initial wave) and not a single major incident where they had to do slow anything down, they are now starting up all their sports in fact (even Fall sports like football). The other school is completely virtual and the teachers literally don't even see the kids' faces at all during class (it's just audio). It's pretty hard to make the argument now that keeping schools closed does less harm.


So, a haematologist & oncologist. Not an epidemiologist or virologist.

And no, he didn't "ask all the experts in all the fields", because that's a ludicrous exaggeration. He did some asking around and wrote a few op-eds. He doesn't represent the scientific consensus.

You keep doing this on Covid-19 issues: finding a few (quite sparse or tenuous) supportive snippets for your position, then posting them completely uncritically and exaggerating their authoritativeness.
Are you saying only doctors can research things in their own very specific field? You don't have to go to school and get a degree in every single field to be able to research something and figure it out yourself. I think I put an extra "all" in there by mistake, I meant he talked with experts in all the fields, not literally every expert. The scientific majority/consensus is definitely that you can have schools open, Where is this scientific consensus that schools shouldn't be open? If the consensus is that schools should be closed, why have so many countries opened schools?

How are the majority of school studies saying schools are dangerous to be open? How am I only finding the say 10% that say otherwise, I have no horse in this race, I personally don't care about schools being open or not (I don't have kids, I'm not a teacher, etc.). But the science and data is much more in favor of schools being open than closed, that's all I'm following. As I said to Agema, google "school study covid" (nothing leading at all to a desired conclusion), pretty much all the 1st page of results lean towards it's safe, some are more cautious than others obviously. You aren't going to find a 100% sure answer because you never will. And you can't wait until you're 100% sure because you'd never make a decision if you did. Decisions aren't math problem with a single correct answer or else they really wouldn't be decisions.


I know how long six feet is and I've attended schools. The laws of physics don't magically change because some guy measured a correlation.
6 feet was an arbitrary thing to begin with. Guess what, if you're sitting in the same room with people all 6 feet apart for hours and one person is infectious, the 6 feet isn't going to stop transmission. 6 feet was just something to go by for being in public (like stores) where you don't have lengthy interactions and so people didn't line up body to body in lines and whatnot. In the link above in this post, there's a pic of kids sitting right next to each other and doing just fine.
 

Generals

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You can be honest about the risk without misleading the public. Like Wolfgang Kubicki said it's a tactic you expect from an authoritarian state and instilling fear is the axe to our democratic constitution.

Der stellvertretende Bundesvorsitzende der FDP, Wolfgang Kubicki, sagte, das Ministerium habe Kommunikationswerkzeuge verwendet, die er „eher bei autoritären Staaten vermutet hätte“. Wer in der Bevölkerung Angst erzeugen wolle, um politische Maßnahmen besser durchsetzen zu können, lege „selbst die Axt an unsere demokratische Grundordnung.

Politicians are known for their exagerations, especially when in the opposition.
You can be honest about the risk but what if you don't know the risk? This was back in March... Better ask and go for the worst case scenario than risk underestimating the threat and having to explain to all these families why they needlessly lost loved ones.

Quite ironically authoritarian rulers did exactly the opposite: China long lied and downplayed the threat to preserve the image of a China that was doing just great. Russia has pretty much admitted their estimated deaths are severe underestimates because of how strictly they count Covid related related. And finally both Bolsonaro and Trump kept on downplaying the epidemic too.
 
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Satinavian

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Nothing in that article claims that the scientists have lied or exagerated or were pressured to do so. They were asked to provide a worst case scenario based on "no measures are taken". They did.
The politicians then took the numbers from it and actually presentet it to the public as "worst case scenario if no measures are taken. This is what want to avoid and here is how we try to achieve that."

Nothing wrong with any of that.

(Of course the gouvernment didn't even only ask for a worst case scenario but also for predictions based on possible measures to plan their response. And they got those as well.)



The only thing that might have been a little bit questionable occured around summer. The gouvernment did not only ask the RKI for models but other reputable research institutes as well. And most of the year the recommendations and models agreed reasonably well, but at one time they didn't and some politicians were not above picking the one with numbers they liked more. So a scientific disagreement was mirrored in a political disagreement in a strange way and we got politicians citing scientific papers towards each other without understanding them. But that didn't last long. Mostly because the scientific dispute got solved by refining models with new infection data.



The various complaints in the articles not about the gouvernment applying pressure to get a desired outcome. The complaints are about how when the gouvernment tasks a research institute with a study, it could theoretically apply such presure which might undermine the trust in the study. It is a complaint about procedure and potential conflict of interest, not about any actual misbehavior.
 
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Thaluikhain

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The British government did the same over Brexit to see what extreme measures they may need to do to avert a potential crisis.
Without wanting to get off topic, did they follow through on this?