@Silvanus,
@Agema,
@XsjadoBlaydette, so it appears the local elections in your neck of the wood have gone rather swimmingly. Any thoughts?
My take is that it is bad, but not as bad as it may appear.
What's really happened is that Reform is mostly cannibalising and replacing the Conservative Party. The Conservative vote had collapsed a few years ago, and this is mostly those homeless right-wing voters coalescing back together, but under Reform instead. Much is made of Labour collapsing in one-time strongholds, but it already was collapsing: much of the "Red Wall" was demolished by the Tories in 2019. It's just now the right-wing baton has passed to Reform who are, at least for the moment, more attractive to poorer voters than the Tories. So this is just long-term trends playing out as expected, with the right-wing in transition from old party to new.
Reform are a deeply unstable party. The leadership are grotesque, corrupt, right-wing, small-medium businessman grifters out to feather their own nests, bankrolled by corrupt and grotesque billionaires. In the long run, they are doomed to lose their support in the poorer, working class heartlands because they will never deliver social and economic benefits to them. They can string the poor along with crass nationalism, social conservatism and play-acting the common man, but that will be seen through eventually. (Of course, this instability may ultimately kill the party, allowing the Tories to come back.)
Reform will also become victims of their own success. Local government is fucked: it has no money and no power - that's all been centralised in Westminster. These guys are inexperienced and clueless. They're going to spend ages trying to work out how to even do anything. And when they finally get their house in order, they'll find out that loads of stuff they want to get rid of is a legal obligation they can't get rid of. Or that the public will go beserk if they try to scrap it. There are no cuts, no savings, no reductions in local taxes, and if they do want to spend on anything new, no money for that either. The public will realise "Shit, these dudes are just like the last dudes, except more racist". Admittedly, for some voters, more racist is a plus, but overall, enthusiasm will wane (and in fact, this is already playing out in councils Reform took control of last time). The downside is that once they in power, it helps them gain insider knowledge and develop systems which makes it easier for them to maintain their position longer-term.