Pachter Predicts PlayStation Domination

[Andy Chalk]

Pachter Predicts PlayStation Domination

Michael Pachter expects that the PlayStation 4 will edge out the Xbox One in the next round of the console wars, but says that in the end it might not matter.

The next generation of consoles is upon us, and that means it's time to start arguing. And nobody kicks off an argument like Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter, a man of many opinions who isn't afraid to share them. Speaking at the London Games Conference, he gave the next-gen console crown to the PlayStation 4 by a narrow margin over the Xbox One, saying he expects the PS4 will move 100-120 million units over its lifetime, while the Xbox One will manage 90-110 million.

The PS4 will come out on top, he said, because of its price advantage and the simple fact that gamers aren't actually interested in Kinect, which Microsoft is betting heavily on with the Xbox One. He also said, however, that the TV functionality could prove to be a "killer app" for the Xbox One, particularly if it can offer subsidies on service.

But while he thinks the Xbox One and PlayStation 4 will keep it close, he described the poor Wii U as "toast." "We think 30 million is where it is set," he said. "If you are a Nintendo fan bitching about my opinion on Wii U, stop, put your money where your mouth is and buy a Wii U."

Interesting advice, although it might not matter in the end, as Pachter also believes that this console generation will be the last of its kind. "Consoles may not be relevant in 10 years," he said. "We have expanded the market beyond the hardcore console owner. We now have ten times the audience over the internet, six times the audience over mobile. And I think one day you'll get to play any game, anywhere on any device."

Source: Develop [http://www.develop-online.net/news/lgc-2013-michael-pachter-predicts-ps4-will-win-the-next-generation/0185944]


Permalink

 

[Church185]

Crap, Pachter is rooting for Sony.

Sony is DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED!

 

[omega 616]

"The simple fact that gamers aren't actually interested in Kinect.... He also said, however, that the TV functionality could prove to be a "killer app" for the Xbox One" that kind of doesn't make sense to me. I mean if tv functionality is a killer app (Btw, what the fuck does that mean?) but Kinect doesn't interest any gamers... Does that mean he expects people to navigate the xbone (I still like that name) with the controller?

I think the only way anything other than gaming will happen on that console, is with the Kinect. Without Kinect it looks like a pure chore to use an xbone.

(I just got my typing interrupted twice by my phone being sent to the Google play store, grrr)

 

[Frezzato]

Courtesy of The Escapist:

Pachter predicts no more new consoles...back in 2009 [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/90443-Pachter-This-Is-The-Final-Generation].

March 24, 2009:
"I think we've seen the last generation of consoles," Pachter said at the GamesBeat conference today. What Pachter saw in his crystal ball was this: Nintendo might release an upgraded Wii with HD and more storage, but Sony and Microsoft probably won't release another console. That's because there's just no more money in it, and third parties won't want it either."

Broken clock...right twice a day...Pachter, go take a long walk off a short plank.

 

[Pink Gregory]

So bet everything on the WiiU; cheers for the tip, Mike.

Wait - TV functionality is a 'killer app' on a console that, y'know, needs a television in order to be used?

...huh.

Some of what he's saying has some sense in it; but that's not coming from him, we've all been saying - or at least discussing - those things (increasing irrelevance of console, prevalemce of phone/tablet games). Only he gets paid for it.

 

[rasputin0009]

Courtesy of The Escapist:

Pachter predicts no more new consoles...back in 2009 [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/90443-Pachter-This-Is-The-Final-Generation].

March 24, 2009:
"I think we've seen the last generation of consoles," Pachter said at the GamesBeat conference today. What Pachter saw in his crystal ball was this: Nintendo might release an upgraded Wii with HD and more storage, but Sony and Microsoft probably won't release another console. That's because there's just no more money in it, and third parties won't want it either."

Broken clock...right twice a day...Pachter, go take a long walk off a short plank.

He changes his predictions day-to-day; that's his paying job. He's allowed to be wrong. But he's mostly right.

 

[Frezzato]

snip

He changes his predictions day-to-day; that's his paying job. He's allowed to be wrong. But he's mostly right.

I looked into a comparison of his past predictions, and you're right, he is right (kinda) most of the time. But in this case I think he's blowing smoke up all our collective asses. The consoles haven't even hit the streets yet.

Strangely though, he was right about the Wii U in terms of sales [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/118496-Michael-Pachter-Predicts-Wii-U-Failure], I guess. And that was practically six months before it was in stores. I was sure it was going to dominate last Christmas as it was the only game in town, so to speak. I had assumed that the masses would go out in search of something shiny and new for the holidays but it just didn't happen. At least it didn't happen in comparison to Wii sales.

 

[Yoshi4102]

Uh oh, better switch to Xbone. Pachter is a jinx

 

[TiberiusEsuriens]

He's got a point though, consoles, phones, PCs are getting a lot more homogenous. While each might still exist in the future, the biggest differentiation between each will be what corporations declare exclusive content - software will be able to run on anything, but because people are dumb they will simply prevent it sometimes for money.

 

[Adam Jensen_v1legacy]

He's got a point

He doesn't have a point. Nothing he says is his opinion. He reads gaming forums and and then spouts whatever the popular opinion is. Real analysts have predicted this months ago and this tosser is coming out with his "prediction" a week before the next-gen launch.

 

[alphamalet]

He will be wrong...and guess what his consequence for being wrong is!?

NOTHING!!!!

That's the problem...

 

[el_kabong]

I think it's funny that people often point to a future rise of PC gaming putting an end to console wars. You know what happens when PC gaming rises? More debate about which OS is best. It will swap one war for another, because people have a slavish need to defend their personal choices and force their opinions on strangers that truly have no affect on their lives.

 

[medv4380]

He's got a point

He reads gaming forums and and then spouts whatever the popular opinion is.

First real analysis do that. It's no different than the twitter analysis that's used to estimate movie attendance the day of the opening, and it's no different than looking at the edits on wikipedia to estimate who's going to win an election. There is flaws in any analysis, but that doesn't make it not an analysis.

Second an analyst should never give you their opinion. They give you the opinion of the data, and never their own.

Patcher is still different, and wrong. He's on record as having made stuff up for the purpose of getting himself attention. The moment an analyst does that they are no longer an analyst. They are an attention troll, and nothing more. He might be right, but he might be doing it solely for the attention to make himself more money. Doing this even once taints the validity of any analysis he's ever done.

The part of this "analysis" that is trolling is just about everything after who he thinks is going to "win". Trolling Nintendos fan base when he should be explaining why the 3DS is a success in spite of his Trolling in the past, and so on. Instead he's Trolling Nintendo fans regarding the Wii U, but I guarantee you that if Nintendo gets their stuff together and rights their ship regarding the Wii U he won't explain how he got it wrong. He'll just go to trolling something else. He also needs to explain why he still thinks that "Mobile" is a valid platform given that the 3DS isn't dead.

I would be interested in an analysis that actually showed the number of gamers on the mobile platforms out there. At this point they're just looking at all the Android and iPhone users and saying "Look at our install base". I want to see that, and the yearly attach rates coming out of the analysts mouth before I hear another "Gamings all going to mobile" nonsense analysis that ignores the real work needed to make that claim.

 

[SonOfVoorhees]

We will see, i expect Sony will sell loads, as will MS. Sony needs to do well as they said there will be no PS5 if the PS4 doesnt do that well. Sony is also opening in more areas than MS, no idea why MS chose to limit its territories. Anyway I think both companies will do well, and both will have a next, next gen in around 8 years time. I had the PS1 and PS2, then Xbox and 360. May just pick up a PS3 and play their huge back catalog and leave the next gen for a year or two as none of the games seems to grab my attention and make it worth the price of a next gen console.

 

[The Rogue Wolf]

If Michael Pachter told me it was raining, and my head was getting wet, I'd look up just to make sure somebody wasn't pissing on me. I don't trust that guy at all; he's often wrong, and many of his "predictions" are geared towards manipulating the market for his customers.

 

[RicoADF]

You know you've stuffed up when Michael Pachter can read the community better than the console maker....

 

[Tiamat666]

*cough*sensationalist*cough*headline

the PS4 will move 100-120 million units over its lifetime, while the Xbox One will manage 90-110 million

Selling 10% more units, possibly even 10% less, can hardly be referred to as "domination".