Full Metal Bolshevik said:
Strazdas said:
Full Metal Bolshevik said:
It seems I'm in the minority when I think this generation of consoles will sell less consoles than the previous one.
Also, the generation started last year.
debatable. considering power of WiiU you coudl easily attribute it to current gen (PS3, Xbox360). If anything, WiiU is attempt to emulate current consoles way too late in the cycle.
Not debatalbe since generation comes from age, not power.
1 year is not a big difference, hence WiiU belongs to the 8th generation. And even in power it's a considerable upgrade since it can run 1080p 60fps, unlike previous consoles.
That wont work either. Wii was the last console released of the generation, released at the very end (december) of 2006, capable of power that could be attributed to last gen back then. WiiU came 6 years later, as opposed to 2005-2013 that other consoles are doing (8 years). Nintendo was always 1 generation behind the rest (except back when it was competing with sega). Nintendo only now got into 7th generation with WiiU.
1080p 60 Fps thing, have you seen the games it can run on that? Original Xbox could run same games on that resolution. Take a game that current consoles run on (admitedly fake upscaled) 720p and you wont be able to run it on 720p on WiiU.
ALso, considering how poorly WiiU is doing, the current consoles completely dominate the market, so the new generation havent started yet anyway.
Zachary Amaranth said:
1. You are giving Patcher WAAAAAY too much credit. No way is he that grounded in gaming opinions. His predictions are so frequently off the wall that he's got tobe reading YouTube comments (free money for following THIS LINK!!!, Ron Paul 2012).
To be honest, somone here posted a link to nintedo forums where a person did analysis of his predictions. over 50% of them were true, thoug admitedly some of them were "GTA4 is going to do well" which is "no, duh" type of deal.
the ftrequency of "off the wall" opinions arent that big.
2. Patcher is a real analyst. He's got a real job doing real analysis for a real company. This stuff doesn't seem to be what keeps him employed.
His job is financial analist. his job is likely completely unrelated to gaming at all and he doesnt ahve any sway of buying or selling the companies stock to begin with. what he says about gaming is more of a hobby for him.
3. Honestly, most analysts are full of shit. Patcher just seems to not half-ass it. He's like the Peter Molyneux or Glenn Beck of games analysis.
No, most analysts are very good at their job. Its just that you will only see analsys that are full of shit on the news, because the good ones dont just go touting thier opinions -
they sell them for money.
Overall? Maybe. The Wii left a big hole to be filled.
Individually? Well, considering the (in my opinion undeserved) frenzy at launch, it's hard to imagine lower lifetime sales for the PS4 and Bone compared to their predecessors. I'm not precluding it, but I think it's unlikely.
I mean, what are you basing this on? It doesn't seem to be realistic.
There were plenty of people with opinion of "nothing new here not getting the new one" as well as many people thinking "this is just a very limited PC, so i may as well just buy a normal PC", followed by many threads on forums of "help me build a PC". there is quite clear shift of at least part of gamers moving to PC market, so less sales is very possible.
another fact in, which we have no way to know yet, is failure rates. Some estimate Xbox 360 to have over 40% failure rate. Now imagine how many of the consoles sold are people who bought a new one after the old one failed. lets say Xbox One does not ahve this problem (its microsoft, but we can hope at least), thats 40% less sales, ok make it 30% since not everyone bought a second one. thats still sginificant fall.
For example, if he keeps predicting the irrelevence of consoles in a few years time, he will probably be eventually right. But he's predicted it like 9 billion times now. One would think routinely being wrong would count, but apparently not.
granted he did some pretty crappy claims, however back in 2006 pretty much EVERYONE claimed Wii is going to be a failure. and everyone was wrong. so i guess we are all bad analysts then.
(this is why i reserve my predictions about WiiU now, after all if Wii got successful anything that happen).
But is that true? Guy was just pulling for the Xbone recently. Despite all evidence to the contrary. Is this really reading the market? Especially since he's attached it to yet another prediction that consoles will be irrelevant (this time for realz, yo).
Consoles (and PCs, and phones, and tablets) are going to be irrelevant in the long term. Technologies change fast and we see new things emerging. Maybe it could easily be replaced by soemthing like Oculus Rift of Google Glass (Though the demo they shown now looks horrible) in 50 years. So hes not essentially wrong, hes just doing the same mistake everyone keep doing - do not account for conservatism of the consumer. not everyone is buying 4k TVs just because they exist now.
Zachary Amaranth said:
Or you could simply not attribute it to being "smart" or not.
Do you grow your own food? It's the "smart" thing to do.
Do you service your own car? It's the "smart" thing to do.
Do you maintain your own electrical work? It's the "smart" thing to do.
Bad comparison. Chosing a platform that is cheaper (in the long run), faster, more free and has plenty of other bonuses (like free multiplayer) and otherwise are clearly superior as far as is objectively measurable (there always going to be subjective measures, such as costumer service, which some people like soe dont, game choices) is the samrt thing to do. What sways people to buy these consoles are subjective reasons, the "Fear of complex PC myth", costumer loyalty, nostalgia, ect.
Now onto your "Examples".
I dont grow my own food except some vegetables. It is not a smart thing to do. Growing all food myself would be highly inefficient and not beneficial in any way. I also do not posses ability to terraform my location to be even able to grow some of that food to begin with (like peaches dont grow here). It is not the smart thing to do.
Do i service my own car? that depends on what you mean by servicing. keep it fixed and in working condition? yes i do. There are mandatory checks that i have to do at service place however and i do them. I as well am unable to do my own tire balansing as that takes machinery that i do not posses. buying it would NOT be a smart thing to do, as it only becomes feasible if i do it 10 times a day. It is cheaper to use services which make it economical by the amount of cars it balanses.
Do i maintain my own electric work? what does that mean? you mean electric instalation in my house? Yes, i do. Everyone should.
Part of the barrier to entry with computers is that people don't care enough about it to maintain it.
the maintenance is identical to console. You have to clean dust. You can opt out of it, and your console will overheat. same with PC.
You can make PCs as easy to operate and upgrade as possible, and people won't do it.
the real question here is why? mythical psichological fears? is that a good argument agasint PCs though?
Don't look down on people for not having the same interests as you do. Especially if you don't want them doing the same. It's part of why PC gamers are so routinely ridiculed.
And here i though our interests were to play the games we want in most efficient and cheap matter. I guess what you say some people have "interets" in using weaker and more expensive system. i call this waste.
When you look, for example, at all those finance firms that couldn't see the fiscal cliff coming.
They could. They jsut though they could evade the cliff. I mean heck, back in 2008 me and my fellow 1st year students predicted it. it wasnt hard. anyone analyzing economic data saw it. Thing is, being a small coutnry that was never hit by world crysis before, we were stupid enough to think this one wont affect us. we underestimated globality. I mean our government did pull though the best they could and won quite a few rewards for that but thats beside the point.
