Global Warming Underestimated by up to 50%

[Rhykker]

Global Warming Underestimated by up to 50%

New research suggests that the amount of heat added to the world's oceans over the last 35 years has been underestimated by 24-58 percent. The oceans house more than 90 percent of the heat associated with greenhouse-gas-attributed global warming.

Oceanographers from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory have published a new study [http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2389.html] suggesting that past research on upper-ocean warming has been underestimating the amount of warming taking place - by a significant margin.

The evolution of ocean heat has been studied since the 1950s. The Earth's oceans store more than 90 percent of the heat associated with climate change [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/tag/view/greenhouse%20gases] discussions. By using new satellite analysis techniques and various climate models, the LLNL researchers have refined old, conservative estimates from 1970-2004 and found a significant underestimation in the Southern Hemisphere. The Southern Hemisphere's oceans have actually increased in temperature by 48-166 percent more than previously believed, leading to an overall ocean temperature increase that is 24-58 percent higher than established estimates.

Why the great discrepancy? The researchers attributed the underestimations to limitations in past analysis methods, as well as a paucity of solid data on the Southern Hemisphere's oceans.

Back in May, a new government report summarized the present and future impacts of climate change [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/134294-Climate-Change-Worse-Than-We-Predicted-Says-New-Report] on the U.S. and confirmed that some changes are happening faster than predicted.

Source: Neomatica [http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2389.html]

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[Agayek]

Wesa gunna die! /JarJar

Slightly more seriously: This doesn't surprise me in the least. It's disappointing, but not surprising. Here's to hoping somebody figures out a way to check this shit before it tips over the edge.

 

[The Blind Cookie]

If they predicted a temperature increase of 0.01 degrees Kelvin/Celsius, and it turns out to have increased by a whole 0.02 degrees, that's a 100% underestimation! Better write an article about it!

Jokes aside, relative numbers have a tendency to be abused by several media outlets. It makes me not take the article seriously even if the subject is rather important. Also, apparently we're back to GLOBAL WARMING instead of Climate Change, because that has a better ring to it I assume.

This comic feels relevant:
http://xkcd.com/1102/

 

[WouldYouKindly]

I do love how people(oil companies, their shills/senators) will continue to deny that this could have an effect on weather. It's like if I took a blowtorch to a teddy bear and said it'd be fine. Ok, maybe not quite that extreme, but adding significantly more energy to anything will change it.

 

[Kinitawowi]

WEATHER FORECAST GETS IT WRONG

FILM AT ELEVEN (AFTER WEATHER FORECAST)

Yeah, this is why I don't take global warmingism seriously. "Nobody's talking about us at the moment, let's announce some even more ridiculous numbers".

 

[RA92]

WEATHER FORECAST GETS IT WRONG

They are dealing with climate, not weather.


Yeah, this is why I don't take global warmingism seriously. "Nobody's talking about us at the moment, let's announce some even more ridiculous numbers".

You don't believe them because they constantly update their numbers thanks to better analysis methods and larger sets of data?

 

[Pyrian]

You don't believe them because they constantly update their numbers thanks to better analysis methods and larger sets of data?

Well, sure! Millenia-old contradictory writings are clearly the gold standard of Truth. The Truth doesn't change, and neither does scripture, ergo scripture must be exactly correct!

 

[Adam Jensen_v1legacy]

Maybe if we ignore it, it will go away. Or we'll go away. One of those anyway.

You don't believe them because they constantly update their numbers thanks to better analysis methods and larger sets of data?

He doesn't believe them because the media isn't taking climate change seriously. That's how brainwashing works. And people are completely unaware of it. But I guess if they were aware that they're being brainwashed they wouldn't be brainwashed.

Slightly more seriously: This doesn't surprise me in the least. It's disappointing, but not surprising. Here's to hoping somebody figures out a way to check this shit before it tips over the edge.

That ship has sailed. The best we can do is try not to make it worse. People are just too fuckin' dumb. They don't realize that we're seeing effects of climate change right now. It's not something that's gonna happen some day in the future. It's here now. And it ain't going anywhere. Most people seem to think that it just means that it's warmer in the summer. They don't take into account how it affects the rest of animal kingdom or the plants. You know, the things we eat. When they go to the store and see a sudden spike in lemon prices (for example) they don't ever stop to consider that maybe climate change had something to do with it. And it did. It does. The impact is global and it's only going to get worse as years go by and we do nothing. We're going to have less of everything, it's going to be of worse quality and it's going to be more expensive. But not for the top 1% of oil company executives. They're going to be fine, so it's alright.

 

[Britpoint]

Also, apparently we're back to GLOBAL WARMING instead of Climate Change, because that has a better ring to it I assume.

I believe that's just generally considered the more sensible term as global warming is the type of climate change that is happening. It's just more specific.

 

[Plunkies]

No warming in almost 2 decades. Ocean heat content flat since 2005. Sounds like a reason to panic to me.

 

[Rhykker]

Also, apparently we're back to GLOBAL WARMING instead of Climate Change, because that has a better ring to it I assume.

I believe that's just generally considered the more sensible term as global warming is the type of climate change that is happening. It's just more specific.

Exactly. We're specifically talking about the WARMING of the GLOBAL ocean.

 

[Something Amyss]

Yeah, this is why I don't take global warmingism seriously. "Nobody's talking about us at the moment, let's announce some even more ridiculous numbers".

Yes, when you falsely ascribe motives to someone, it's very easy to dismiss them.

No warming in almost 2 decades. Ocean heat content flat since 2005. Sounds like a reason to panic to me.

According to....

 

[Plunkies]

No warming in almost 2 decades. Ocean heat content flat since 2005. Sounds like a reason to panic to me.

According to....

I dunno. Some stupid blog called "nasa" or something.

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=4321

Seriously, whenever I see one of these clickbait articles posted on global warming there's always something easily found that contradicts it. It's just alarmism.

 

[Johnson McGee]

No warming in almost 2 decades. Ocean heat content flat since 2005. Sounds like a reason to panic to me.

According to....

I dunno. Some stupid blog called "nasa" or something.

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=4321

Seriously, whenever I see one of these clickbait articles posted on global warming there's always something easily found that contradicts it. It's just alarmism.

"The cold waters of Earth's deep ocean have not warmed measurably since 2005"

Also from the article YOU posted: "Study coauthor Josh Willis of JPL said these findings do not throw suspicion on climate change itself."

Deep ocean =/= entire ocean and global warming didn't start in 2005. The dynamics of currents create a barrier between deep and shallow ocean and on top of that most warming is disproportionately felt around the arctic and antarctic.

Laymen misinterpreting scientific studies is a huge part of the problem.

 

[RA92]

No warming in almost 2 decades. Ocean heat content flat since 2005. Sounds like a reason to panic to me.

According to....

I dunno. Some stupid blog called "nasa" or something.

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=4321

Seriously, whenever I see one of these clickbait articles posted on global warming there's always something easily found that contradicts it. It's just alarmism.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the NASA article state that the temperature of the ocean below 1.24 miles has stayed flat, while this study is dealing with upper ocean temperatures (with the NASA article confirming the the ocean has been warming up up to a depth of 0.4 miles)? In fact, direct quote: "Using satellite measurements and climate simulations of sea level changes around the world, the new study found the global ocean absorbed far more heat in those 35 years than previously thought -- a whopping 24 to 58 percent more than early estimates." Exactly what this study said.

Read your own sources, man.

 

[the doom cannon]

Climate change is happening. We can do all we want about it, but if China refuses to do anything about their emissions then it won't have much of an effect. Also, driving electric cars doesn't solve the problem. That electricity had to come from somewhere, and the vast majority of it comes from burning coal. So really, it falls on researchers to come up with a new, renewable source of energy. Or, you know, just build nuclear power plants, but that wont happen because ermagerd it's nuclear we all gonna die in a ball of fire!!!11!1 Also, the radioactive waste thing....so yea we're basically fucked because we can't do anything that won't cause problems/panic.

 

[Plunkies]

No warming in almost 2 decades. Ocean heat content flat since 2005. Sounds like a reason to panic to me.

According to....

I dunno. Some stupid blog called "nasa" or something.

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=4321

Seriously, whenever I see one of these clickbait articles posted on global warming there's always something easily found that contradicts it. It's just alarmism.

"The cold waters of Earth's deep ocean have not warmed measurably since 2005"

Also from the article YOU posted: "Study coauthor Josh Willis of JPL said these findings do not throw suspicion on climate change itself."

Deep ocean =/= entire ocean and global warming didn't start in 2005. The dynamics of currents create a barrier between deep and shallow ocean and on top of that most warming is disproportionately felt around the arctic and antarctic.

Laymen misinterpreting scientific studies is a huge part of the problem.

Oh you're right, it did say upper ocean temperatures. The excuse for the "pause" is usually that the deep ocean is absorbing all of this heat despite the fact that global warming was never about the ocean getting warmer but the climate getting warmer. They "discovered" the climate getting warmer while the ocean wasn't stopping it then, but now it is for reasons unexplained.

I have to laugh at you saying "laymen misinterpreting scientific studies" while defending an article that states "Global Warming Underestimated by up to 50%"

The study says ocean heat over a 35 year period has been underestimated. Not global warming. The article is alarmist click bait. Hell, considering how absurdly overestimated global warming was, we'd have to be melting to actually be able to consider it underestimated.

In any case, they have to move away from global warming representing something as silly as the temperature measurably increasing, so now they have to find all these excuses and hidden stashes of heat so that they're not shown to be completely wrong about everything.

 

[Gennadios]

What is it with news outlets announcing that stuff's been underestimated today?

WHO announced that the current ebola outbreak was underestimated, then apparently the US underestimated the potential of ISIS... I think the problem is that people aren't really bothering to estimate sh*t to begin with.

 

[CardinalPiggles]

Climate change is happening. We can do all we want about it, but if China refuses to do anything about their emissions then it won't have much of an effect. Also, driving electric cars doesn't solve the problem. That electricity had to come from somewhere, and the vast majority of it comes from burning coal. So really, it falls on researchers to come up with a new, renewable source of energy. Or, you know, just build nuclear power plants, but that wont happen because ermagerd it's nuclear we all gonna die in a ball of fire!!!11!1 Also, the radioactive waste thing....so yea we're basically fucked because we can't do anything that won't cause problems/panic.

Woah there, are you saying human beings are a plague on this earth? No way man, I always recycle my milk bottles.

 

[Pyrian]

The excuse for the "pause" is usually that the deep ocean is absorbing all of this heat despite the fact that global warming was never about the ocean getting warmer but the climate getting warmer.

The "pause" does not need an excuse. A more exact explanation would be great, which is why lots of people are pursuing one. There have been repeated pauses before, and the rate of warming from, say, '86 to '88, was not remotely sustainable. But here's the thing: It's not going back down, either. It's not a temperature spike that's we're recovering from. It went up, it plateau'd, it went up again, it plateau'd again, it went up again, it plateau'd again, and it went up again, now it's plateau'd. What happens next? The data looks like a staircase, not a jaggy and not a flat line.

The most you can argue from that position is that Global Warming has happened and isn't going away (and the ice is still melting), but there's very little reason in the data to suspect that the ballyhooed pause is anything but temporary.

The study says ocean heat over a 35 year period has been underestimated. Not global warming.

Scientists do a lot of analysis, which means breaking things down and looking at the individual parts.