Never going to happen.
- Not everyone has the talent to makes games.
- Not everyone can spend the time, nor has the will, to get into the required tools, even if they're made to be as simple as possible.
- The games produced by amateurs will often be small productions, most of them drowning in a mass of hundreds, then thousands games, and even more. Oh sure, more people may be able to make games, but
enjoyable games?... nope.
Now, sure, if only 10% of creators, say, make good games, 10% of 1,000,000 people will always mean more good creators than 10% of 10,000 persons. But relatively, I don't see the percentage changing much. It may gain a couple of points in the next two decades, but I don't expect that number to plummet.
Easier tools will probably reveal more talents, people who might have had good ideas, but couldn't get them working; I know some people like this, who can't get into any tool, which they find castrative, but still have intriguing theoretical small concepts which would be worth the try.
That said, I'm not sure there's such a huge untapped potential.
Then there's the obvious point that as the industry will grow in countries which making video games is certainly far from any priority (like in Africa), we'll see probably find new geniuses, but this in no way will increase the percentage. It would just increase the dev population.
stevesan said:
Easier tools for novices will happen. Case and point: Little Big Planet.
I'm not sure about your point here. LBP doesn't strike me as a game made by a bunch of
anyones with near to no formation and almost entirely relying on easy tools.
The story of the Media Molecule tells a very different story, and started with one man and some good old garage-type work on C++, aside from his pro-work.
Now, if you're talking about the level makers, these things existed for ages, and there are various levels of complexity to them.
The example you bring is not accurate either I'm afraid, because I would bet my hat that the principle between LBP's level editing requires that the levels should be very easy to make, to reach a large audience and be quick to play with the less bugs possible.
They're ought to be extremely focused, limited to one game, and above all, they don't make entire games, but just help to develop a limited and small fraction of a game's overall content.
You won't cut it. To make games, you need someone who has a good grasp on logic, to produce the code, even if it's done using middlewares with already accessible coded functions which you can drag and drop into your code window, such as (url=http://www.virtools.com]this one[/url] (which also comes with recent Wii and PSP support). This (expensive) software lets you create a wide variety of games which are not too specific, but it still requires a lot of efforts, logic and organization to create something that works and makes sense.
I'm not counting the requirements on various graphic ressources, music, etc. from the moment you try to make something a tad bigger.