Analysts Predict Bad Times For Xbox 360

Andy Chalk

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Nov 12, 2002
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Analysts Predict Bad Times For Xbox 360


Despite its success in North America, a panel of speakers at the Xbox 360 [http://www.nordicgame.com/]will begin to "struggle" globally in 2008.

The panel suggested the Parker Consulting [http://www.microsoft.com], is a "fundamental image problem" with non-American audiences. "The trouble with Xbox 360 is it hasn't managed to shake off this urban, irreverent adult male feel," Parker said, "so it hasn't gained traction in the more casual gaming markets of mainland Europe such as France, Spain and Italy, where it's stalled. And there are already rumors of Xbox 360 being delisted from certain retailers."

"I think they started off badly with the Xbox itself: blood and breasts," he continued. "This alienated it immediately to a lot of consumers around Europe, and they never got over that. The brand image never went away. And although Halo 3 [http://www.halo3.com]is a big game, it just emphasizes again what the Xbox is all about."

David Cole of DFC Intelligence [http://www.dfcint.com/]concurred, predicting that Microsoft would end up on the short side of the global console wars. "When you look at an installed base basis, the Xbox 360's going to come in third place when all is said and done," he said. "The concern I would have with a company like Microsoft is, one of these days they're going to have to make a profit on this business, otherwise, why are they in it?"

Cole added that while publishers of FPS titles could still make a killing on the 360, other genres have much more difficulty succeeding on the platform. "If you're doing a first-person shooter title, you're clearly going to want to be on the Xbox 360, and that's for years to come," he said. "(But) their efforts at marketing outside of the first-person shooter crowd have been disastrous."

"(Microsoft) gets very defensive because they realize the U.S. is their last stronghold now as their sales go into decline across the rest of the world," added Parker, referring to a statement [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/83883]made in May by Xbox executive Don Mattrick that Microsoft's achievement of ten million console sales was a major step toward victory in the console wars. "So they're a little bit desperate and they're clutching at straws now to cling on to what they've got in the market which is primarily the U.S."

While the Xbox 360 is a strong performer in North America, it hasn't met with similar levels of success internationally. The system's global installed base of 19 million units is ahead of the Nintendo Wii [http://www.playstation.com], which leads both consoles with well over 24 million units sold.


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ccesarano

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Weren't people saying this crap last year?

"The concern I would have with a company like Microsoft is, one of these days they're going to have to make a profit on this business, otherwise, why are they in it?"
Didn't Microsoft announce they've been making profits on Xbox last year? Yeah, they did.

Cole added that while publishers of FPS titles could still make a killing on the 360, other genres have much more difficulty succeeding on the platform.
Just about every store around my area was sold out of copies of Ninja Gaiden 2 unless they had a second shipment come in on Wednesday. All Circuit Cities within 100 miles of my zipcode were sold out were sold out by noon, as were GameStops. The only reason BestBuy had some by evening after I was done work is because they had a second shipment come in that day, but before that came in they were also sold out by noon.

There's also the fact that Capcom themselves were taken by surprise with how well Dead Rising had sold.

Of course, I'm also in America, so maybe over in Europe people aren't paying attention to games without crosshairs.
 

fix-the-spade

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True, neither of those games are FPS's. But then neither of them deviate much from the Hack Slash'n'Maim (sp?) drive of most 360 games.

There's no Ratchet & Clank or Little big planet type games from the major developers on 360. Which is partly what puts me off getting one (that and the huuuuge amount of power it eats).
 

L.B. Jeffries

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"The trouble with Xbox 360 is it hasn't managed to shake off this urban, irreverent adult male feel,"

What the hell does that mean?
 

Evilbunny

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L.B. Jeffries said:
"The trouble with Xbox 360 is it hasn't managed to shake off this urban, irreverent adult male feel,"

What the hell does that mean?
Apparently these people think that unless game companies appeal to casual gamers they are doomed to failure, which doesn't even begin to make sense.
 

UpInSmoke

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My humble collection of 360 games includes the following non-fps's: Bully, Burnout, Dead Rising, gta4, gun, mass effect, nba 2k8, oblivion, overlord, pgr 3, Tony Hawk 8, and Viva Pinata (not to mention Sneak King from burger king lol.) Then I've got 5 fps's.

That's a pretty balanced library imho. What does this analyst want? More minigame collections? That's obviously the answer to everything, right?
 

ccesarano

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UpInSmoke said:
My humble collection of 360 games includes the following non-fps's: Bully, Burnout, Dead Rising, gta4, gun, mass effect, nba 2k8, oblivion, overlord, pgr 3, Tony Hawk 8, and Viva Pinata (not to mention Sneak King from burger king lol.) Then I've got 5 fps's.

That's a pretty balanced library imho. What does this analyst want? More minigame collections? That's obviously the answer to everything, right?
I'd be able to cite some myself if I actually had my library of games with me. I know Kameo is also quite excellent, and I'm looking to get myself a copy of Project Sylpheed when I'm good on money. While many of the titles you listed aren't exclusive, quite a few are, or started out being exclusive in terms of consoles anyway (Overlord was out on Xbox for half a year before it hit PS3, right?).

True, neither of those games are FPS's. But then neither of them deviate much from the Hack Slash'n'Maim (sp?) drive of most 360 games.
So now most 360 games are hack'n'slash? Or are you saying that they are very similar to all the other hack and slash games out? Because Ninja Gaiden 2 and Dead Rising are two very different experiences, and while I enjoyed Devil May Cry 4, Ninja Gaiden 2 kicks its ass quite well.

Are you sure you have any idea what you are talking about, sir?
 

slaygore

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If it's only FPS, then I assume all those hack'n'slash, racing, fighting and rpg games were all doing poorly even though I see tons of copies getting sold. Also gta isn't fps although it is a mature game it's still selling millions. These analyst don't even know what they're talking about. I'm assuming they want 360 to go the casual root and follow nintendo's way. In that case you might as well just rip nintendo's wii mote, nunchucks and wii balance board right now. Xbox live arcade games anyone? Those types of games are for anyone to enjoy. 360 is about the online experience and that's what made it successful. Plus it's easier to make games on it.
 

mwhite67

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I hope XBOX stays around in the next generation of systems because their online service destroys the competition in terms of quality. If I was going to buy a multiplatform online game I would always go with the xbox version. We'll see how this playstation home service turns out, but so far it's looking pretty fruity.
 

The Lawn

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I must admit, I pretty much only have FPSes for my 360, but then the Xboxes have had the best suited controller for console FPSes. Well, at least in my opinion.

CoD4 is the only FPS that I prefer playing on my PS3 than 360.
 

oneofm4ny

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What about XNA? The XBox 360 is the only console which allows hobbyist making games for it and it's architecture is very similar to a pc. So it's easier for developers to port a xbox game to pc and vice versa. The Wii lacks the horse power (Are there any real games for it?) and the ps3 is difficult to program for.

I don't think anything is decided yet, but on the other hand I'm not a video game analyst ;)
 

Joeshie

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While I think that it does have that kind of image associated to it, especially in Japan, it's quite funny considering that at the moment, the 360 has the strongest library of JRPGs.

But whatever, no one said Europeans were bright.
 

stompy

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Well... who really cares? They always say 'doom and gloom', so I've stopped listening. Not much point really.
 

Zoroastres

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The 360 has a bigger variety of games than the PS3, that's for sure. It's got a TON of RPGs, Ace Combat (that's a BIG deal) and a lot of the big, bad, PC games... not to mention all the arcade titles. And what games the 360 doesn't have currently, it has release dates for.

On the other hand, most of the PS3's big titles are TBA, and have been TBA for years.

Don't get me wrong--I love my PS3 dearly--but I can't exactly put its library at the same level as the 360 when the only exclusives I really, really like are Uncharted and echochrome. Two games just ain't enough.
 

Arbre

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They are looking at what the 360's future games, and say there's not many huge sellers to see.
They say the console has an etiquette which reads as "I'm loved by fashioned male teenagers who dig violence onscreen".

Well, I cannot say it's terribly wrong. Besides, the console is not the prettiest bit of plastic that could stand in a living room, and this does count.
 

UsefulPlayer 1

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I thought we had this understanding since day one. Xbox 360 has a solid adult male fan base and that is why I bought the system. I wanted a system that would have games for me, RPGs (not the Japanese, though I don't really hate them) and shooters. And guess what, my xbox delivered on everything I hoped for; I love Oblivion, GoW, halo, GTA4, Bioshock, and CoD. Now I'm waiting for Too Human, Fable 2, Bioshock 2 and GoW 2. Still trying to get the Orange Box, Assassin's Creed, Ninga Gaiden 2 and GH 3, I didn't forget about them.

So when you tell me Xbox sales might decline cause they their working to please people like me, well should I feel bad? I Don't care if the the sales decline so long as they make enough money off the backs of people like me to continue to bring the kick ass games that people like me enjoy.

And my 2 cents on the other systems:
The Wii to me nothing but a highly advanced game, toy, thing. Most of the things there just have you do simple actions for simple fun, which really lacks the depth I want in a game. I do see things like metroid and zelda as repectable video games, but there is so few of such games that have me turn off at the Idea of buying a Wii. I probably buy on if I got some extra money and need something to relax.

The only problem with the the PS3 is that they have nothing I really like. MGS 4 was never something I wanted to get into and my faith in it is slipping with every release of game play video. The only other thing that PS3 has that catches my attention is the next Final Fantasy and I think Fable 2 alone is a worthy trade to buy an Xbox than a PS3.
 

Hey Joe

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Well, the doom and gloom is somewhat warranted in my opinion. I think the PS3 is going to have a good year on the back of the HD-format war and some games actually being released for the thing. The wii will continue to sell like hotcakes because it does capture that casual market really well, but I don't see the 360 having too bad of a year.

I mean, the thing that's guaranteed about the 360 is that good games are still going to come out on it. It's a gaming console, so the games have to be the central focus point for consumers.