Analysts Fear For Nintendo

[Logan Westbrook]

Analysts Fear For Nintendo

Market analysts in the UK have warned that Nintendo is likely to suffer in the current economic climate.

Nintendo's shift towards the casual gamer market has undeniably put the company in the lead in the current generation of consoles, but now market analysts fear that this may put the company in an unfavorable position as the global economic situation worsens.

Piers Harding-Rolls, an analyst for media business research company Screen Digest, expressed concerns at the sustainability of the casual gaming market. "We are not sure how the recession will affect the buying habits of these new, more casual mainstream consumers. These consumers are more likely to view gaming as a discretionary luxury," he said.

Nick Gibson of Games Investor Consulting, echoed Harding-Rolls predictions, adding, "As the market has become more casual-gamer focused, then it will be more susceptible to the economic rhythm...I would say that Nintendo therefore would be the most susceptible."

It was not all doom and gloom however, as consoles sales over all are 15% higher than this time last year, suggesting that, while the gaming industry is by no means recession-proof, it is certainly in a good position to weather the oncoming storm.

Source: The Guardian [http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2008/dec/04/ecommerce-games-sony-nintendo] via CVG [http://www.computerandvideogames.com/article.php?id=203347]



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[Cousin_IT]

I wouldnt say Nintendo are suseptable so much as those 3rd party companies that have leaped on the 'casual' game market. Nintendo still have their catalogue of franchises that appeals to their core audience. Indeed it might even be a good thing: More Classic Nintendo franchise games (coplain all u want. They milk that cow coz it gives good milk) & less Samba De Amigo crap

 

[fix-the-spade]

Funny, I would say Nintendo is the least susceptible of the current console manufacturers. Why? Well their products are cheapest for starters.
By dint of using old technology their consoles are also cheapest to develop for, no doubt that will become more significant when people stop dropping £250+ on Xbox's and PS3's. The fact that the HMV I work in sold one 360, no PS3's and nearly 40 Wii's and DS's this week probably reflects that already.
If the number of Wii's being sold keeps outstripping the other two, eventually it will become developer's lead format, otherwise they may as well be admitting they don't want to make money.

 

[Skrapt]

If the number of Wii's being sold keeps outstripping the other two, eventually it will become developer's lead format, otherwise they may as well be admitting they don't want to make money.

I wouldn't agree with that, although Wii sales may surpass that of the Xbox 360 and PS3 it will never become the 'developers choice of format' due to the low amount of computing power. The less you have the harder it is to build for, and the Xbox 360/Ps3 market is still significant enough for developers to develop for the platform.

 

[Avatar Roku]

Wow...my parents had been asking me what video game companies are successful, so they could know who to invest in (I was being honest, so I told them EA, along with the stern warning that they are the anti-christ of the gaming industry and they shouldn't support them unless necessary.). I'm glad I didn't say Nintendo.

 

[xitel]

Wow...my parents had been asking me what video game companies are successful, so they could know who to invest in (I was being honest, so I told them EA, along with the stern warning that they are the anti-christ of the gaming industry and they shouldn't support them unless necessary.). I'm glad I didn't say Nintendo.

Should have said Valve. They're starting to do pretty well for themselves.

 

[Limos]

If the number of Wii's being sold keeps outstripping the other two, eventually it will become developer's lead format, otherwise they may as well be admitting they don't want to make money.

I wouldn't agree with that, although Wii sales may surpass that of the Xbox 360 and PS3 it will never become the 'developers choice of format' due to the low amount of computing power. The less you have the harder it is to build for, and the Xbox 360/Ps3 market is still significant enough for developers to develop for the platform.

It will become the default developing platform if the other two consoles continue to perform so poorly.

Sure they may "want" to develop for the 360 or PS3, but if no one is buying those systems and the Wii continue to increase it's audience by leaps and bounds then the developers are going to actually start putting their top developers on the Wii rather than ignoring it like they have.

 

[Avatar Roku]

Wow...my parents had been asking me what video game companies are successful, so they could know who to invest in (I was being honest, so I told them EA, along with the stern warning that they are the anti-christ of the gaming industry and they shouldn't support them unless necessary.). I'm glad I didn't say Nintendo.

Should have said Valve. They're starting to do pretty well for themselves.

Oh, you're right! What was I thinking?

 

[fix-the-spade]

I wouldn't agree with that, although Wii sales may surpass that of the Xbox 360 and PS3 it will never become the 'developers choice of format' due to the low amount of computing power. The less you have the harder it is to build for, and the Xbox 360/Ps3 market is still significant enough for developers to develop for the platform.

Alright then. You're about to give a new game the green light. It's going to take 2 years to develop and cost $8 million by the time you're done, it's a new IP and neither you nor your investors have any idea how it's going to sell.

Do you tell your investors you're developing for two consoles with a combined market of 38.8 million consoles, which is slowly expanding.
Or that you will be making it for one console with a potential market of 30.4 million, rapidly expanding and showing very few signs of a slowdown, despite the global recession.


Also, do you really think it's harder/more expensive to program for something based on a seven year old hardware system against the latest, most graphically advanced consoles?

 

[Echolocating]

Market analysts in the UK have warned that Nintendo is likely to suffer in the current economic climate.

Don't you have to go to school or something to be an analyst?

I guess not.

 

[TsunamiWombat]

I'm being an analyst right now. I'm analyzing that Nintendo will still turn around and sell more Wii's then they can make, and swim in all the money and giggle while they think of new plastic things to sell people. Perhaps a Wii-Helmet that records your head movement for..uhh.. ducking in boxing games. Or something. Yeah, thats the ticket.

 

[Sixties Spidey]

I think that Nintendo won't get affected because A: A lot of people are still buying the Wii and DS, and B: the products are really cheap. Yes, the 360 has become a lot cheaper than the Wii now, but people are buying it because of the motion controller.

I fear for Nintendo about one thing, and that's how they cater to their core audience. Sure Mario and Zelda were awesome, but the Wii has more potential. There are a lot of core based games that should come to the Wii as fast as they can. Starfox and F-Zero for example. The audience Nintendo picked is the reason why most of these party games are popping up all over the place. Thankfully, The Conduit, Punch Out Wii and Sin and Punishment 2 are coming out, so hopefully that will resolve that dilemma.

 

[KaZZaP]

I fear that I won't get any more use out of my wii, since they made the switch to more casual gamers (even tho they we're fairly casual to begin with) I haven't bought a single game for the wii. I just want another Zelda or Metroid level game.

 

[Kubanator]

Moar stuff

Stuff

Ok, lets make it more like the actual market - neither you nor anyone on your team have any knowledge, or desire, to make a sim game. Now, are we going to sell to the market with a total potential of 41.3 million (actual figure last time I checked) with a likely adoption rate of 5%, or a market with 36.6 million, with a potential adoption rate of .02%?

I assume the Wii is the 41.3 million.

 

[Jimmyjames]

I wouldn't agree with that, although Wii sales may surpass that of the Xbox 360 and PS3 it will never become the 'developers choice of format' due to the low amount of computing power. The less you have the harder it is to build for, and the Xbox 360/Ps3 market is still significant enough for developers to develop for the platform.

Actually, I'm going to have to disagree with you on that one. Game companies aren't making as much money these days (and I'm talking about your average developer, not large publishers) because the cost of doing next-gen games is ENORMOUS. Games for the last gen systems typically were around 2 years and 4 million to develop a AAA title. Now, they're looking at 3-4 years and 20 million, easy in dev costs (a lot more in the case of games like GTA IV). The Wii is extremely easy and cheap to develop games on, which is one of the reasons for all the shovelware. I think that Wii development will become more attractive to the big boys because of it.

Of course, this is my opinion based on the data I've read.

 

[Jimmyjames]

I fear that I won't get any more use out of my wii, since they made the switch to more casual gamers (even tho they we're fairly casual to begin with) I haven't bought a single game for the wii. I just want another Zelda or Metroid level game.

There's some good stuff coming for the Wii... you're going to get your wish. And you alwas have "No More Heroes" to tide you over, which is outstanding (despite what Yahtzee says).