2019-2020 coronavirus pandemic (Vaccination 2021 Edition)

CaitSeith

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The thing is, they do not believe it started in Wuhan, they believe is started in Guangdong, so regardless of if they shut down Wuhan earlier, it would have still spread regardless. It was spreading through asymptomatic carriers before they even knew it existed. Mutated versions of the original type A strain of the virus from Guangdong have been found in both the US and Australia, the later type B strain is what is found primarily in Wuhan. which makes it more likely to have mutated by the time it reached Wuhan, rather than actually originating there.

I predict that the twist of the story is going to be that there were TWO pandemics happening at the same time, and everyone thought it was just one...

I jest by the way.
 

lil devils x

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Some really stupid Australians are copying, word for word, stupid Americans and it annoys me:


Stupid Australians should be drinking themselves to death or kissing brown snakes or swimming in crocodile infested waters after midnight. Aping the US is unAustralian. :mad:
What is wrong with these people? Bill Gates has been one of those donating the most money to help resolve this in so many areas. He has been spending a ton on vaccine research, testing, treatments, viral database, not to mention everything he has been doing to provide food and basic necessities for so many.

 

Gordon_4

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Well, it does project poor leadership, but it's also sort of an acceptance of reality. People are choosing what to do, and if it goes wrong depends on that. The quarantine measures in developed countries were never really enforceable, they worked because people agreed they were a good idea, and now that agreement is falling apart ragardless of what governments say.
Oh they most certainly are enforceable. Doing so won't look pretty by any measure, but don't confuse unpalatable for impossible.
 

Trunkage

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Please, save the effort. If you go up two posts from what you quoted, I've already said it's not a matter of whether the number is too high or two low.

Regions do vary in reporting. I understand. The state I'm in at the beginning had a standard that was likely to miss many deaths. Twice now they've decided to change the standard. It is likely at this point they are counting deaths they shouldn't. Which is not the same as counting too many deaths, they may still miss more than they misattribute. That's not the point. The point is by changing their reporting standards and testing levels constantly in ways that increase the count, it's impossible for a lay person like me with limited information to assess the trends. That have on multiple occasions dumped a bunch of data in retroactively without properly attributing when those deaths and tests actually occurred, and it's freaking annoying. I know enough people in health care to be certain at this point that the crisis here is on a serious down-slope with regards to hospitalizations (you know, just like the rest of the world), but that isn't being reflected in the case and death data that are almost flat still, and those are the only things being published, and neither are being published with a consistent standard.

I don't care if the total count is too high or too low. I want an honest assessment of where we're headed, and the governor's office is dodging that.
I mean, isn’t that the height of arrogance, thinking that you or me would every understand the trends of virus. Most doctors wouldn’t understand, because they aren’t virologist. They have way more education in this area than we would ever do.

Also, everyone single person will have it wrong because it’s an ongoing situation.

We will NEVER have a true account of all the dead. Even in 20 years. You’re going to have to get used to that. There is no way we can. And getting annoyed at people for fiximg a mistake in their methodology is actually ridiculous. You cannot predict how this will go and we need to change based on the evidence, not on what methodology you had before. Yes, it make it harder to generate trends but using inaccurate information will give you the wrong trend anyway.

As to the trend in hospitalisation, that would be great news.There is highly likely going to be lag and your just going to HAVE to get used to that. Accuracy is NOT time sensitive. In fact, it faster stats leads to way more inaccuracies. Your going to HAVE to get used to that. Facts don’t appear at your whim. They develop over time.

It’s why caution is important right now. If you’ve seen Sweden, keeping everything open didn’t help their economy. It tanked like everyone else’s. If you cannot provide a safe place to shop or work, people will not turn up.The quarantine was never about curing the virus. It was about workers, employers and governments finding out ways to live and work under the virus. If you want to open, find a way to make it safe... Denis ‘it’s not my job to look after my employees’ Praeger. Because apparently someone had to prove they’re a moustache twirling Capitalists given everyone else a bad name
 

lil devils x

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Of course while we have COVID-19 cases on the rise in DFW, we have people doing stupid things like having a party with 600 people and having 5 people shot in a park. Many regions across the US have not yet had their peak, yet are relaxing restrictions with it on the rise in their area ignoring everything health officials have been recommending. Brilliant. People are hellbent on making this so much worse than it ever should have been.

"(FORT WORTH, Texas) — Five people were shot and wounded during a party at a Texas park that drew about 600 people despite local guidelines discouraging large gatherings due to the coronavirus pandemic, police said. "

 

tstorm823

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I mean, isn’t that the height of arrogance, thinking that you or me would every understand the trends of virus. Most doctors wouldn’t understand, because they aren’t virologist. They have way more education in this area than we would ever do.
a) I'm smarter than everyone else, regardless of specialty or level of education.
b) Virologists are the people you want to ask about treating viruses or preventing the spread. Modeling the trajectory of the pandemic isn't virology, it's almost entirely statistics.

Also, everyone single person will have it wrong because it’s an ongoing situation.
It's still worth trying. Don't be a defeatist.

We will NEVER have a true account of all the dead. Even in 20 years. You’re going to have to get used to that. There is no way we can. And getting annoyed at people for fiximg a mistake in their methodology is actually ridiculous. You cannot predict how this will go and we need to change based on the evidence, not on what methodology you had before. Yes, it make it harder to generate trends but using inaccurate information will give you the wrong trend anyway.
You are correct about not having a true account. That only makes it less reasonable to be trying to refine the data collection mid-pandemic. I'm not asking for inaccurate information. I'm asking for an accurate account of the same thing over time. If your method of measurement consistent captures half the cases, it's not just an inaccurate count of all cases, it's also an accurate count of half the cases. Consistent methods should measure a relatively consistent percent of cases, which will have the same upward and downward trends as the real number. We can't know with confidence the exact real numbers of cases and deaths, but we can accurately assess the direction things are headed. It's really, really dumb to screw up the useful relative statistics in pursuit of absolute numbers you won't even be sure of 20 years later.

It’s why caution is important right now. If you’ve seen Sweden, keeping everything open didn’t help their economy. It tanked like everyone else’s. If you cannot provide a safe place to shop or work, people will not turn up.The quarantine was never about curing the virus. It was about workers, employers and governments finding out ways to live and work under the virus. If you want to open, find a way to make it safe... Denis ‘it’s not my job to look after my employees’ Praeger. Because apparently someone had to prove they’re a moustache twirling Capitalists given everyone else a bad name
The whole global economy dropped, no country is immune to that. Sweden will be in a good place if in the fall when we get back to cold and flu season, they have minimal impact because it's already spread around. The harsher the quarantine, the slower the spread. The slower the spread, the longer you need the quarantine. The goal is to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed, because overwhelmed health systems leads to many unnecessary deaths. An overly strict quarantine ALSO leads to many unnecessary deaths. The policy goal is to aim for a balance between the suffering and death caused by the virus and the suffering and death caused by the quarantine. If Sweden can retain a sense of normalcy without a huge bump in people dying to the virus, they'll probably end up better off overall without even taking the economics into consideration.
 

Agema

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Well, it does project poor leadership, but it's also sort of an acceptance of reality. People are choosing what to do, and if it goes wrong depends on that. The quarantine measures in developed countries were never really enforceable, they worked because people agreed they were a good idea, and now that agreement is falling apart ragardless of what governments say.
Indeed. But consistent messenging and with the right tone and information can greatly increase the proportion of people who will take good measures.

I think this it particularly objectionable if they are abdicating their responsibilities here just to carry out a sort of PR trick to minimise the blame for screwing up the initial response to the pandemic.

It is depressing for us in the UK to see that we have suffered worse than Italy, despite Italy being caught with its pants around its ankles, and the UK having a whole extra two weeks preparation time over Italy. I know comparisons genuinely are difficult (and Italy may be under-reporting more than the UK). But when the British government argues comparisons are misleading, we all know full well if the UK had the sort of covid-19 casualty rate that Germany did, they'd be trumpting it from every hilltop in the land every hour of every day. When your country fancies itself some sort of global leader and has done an order of magnitude worse than a country with a GDP/capita half as high that within the last ten years was about to collapse into fraud-induced bankruptcy, you can't avoid how incredibly poor it is.
 

Fieldy409

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People have been getting more interested in mushroom hunting during lockdown and more people are getting poisoned. I've found out about this story because I'm one of the guys developing a mushroom obsession I've got two kits growing in my cupboard, two more oyster kits on the way and a bag of King Agaria grain spawn I'm going to innoculate the garden with. But I dunno If I'll ever be brave enough to eat wild mushrooms. Especially white ones that could be death caps!

What with Death caps spreading across America to new areas, this lockdown could mean bad news for any US rookies that have a lockdown induced obsession with hunting wild mushrooms.


Be careful out there!

Is this on topic? I think the unexpected effects of lockdown, like people taking up dangerous hobbies might be worth talking about.
 
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lil devils x

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People have been getting more interested in mushroom hunting during lockdown and more people are getting poisoned. I've found out about this story because I'm one of the guys developing a mushroom obsession I've got two kits growing in my cupboard, two more oyster kits on the way and a bag of King Agaria grain spawn I'm going to innoculate the garden with. But I dunno If I'll ever be brave enough to eat wild mushrooms. Especially white ones that could be death caps!

What with Death caps spreading across America to new areas, this lockdown could mean bad news for any US rookies that have a lockdown induced obsession with hunting wild mushrooms.


Be careful out there!

Is this on topic? I think the unexpected effects of lockdown, like people taking up dangerous hobbies might be worth talking about.
For some reason, your post made me imagine that the self isolation has turned you into one of Rien Poortvliet's gnomes foraging for mushrooms...

I used to read my Mom's gnome books with his artwork in them when I was a kid.
 

CaitSeith

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Back in March (whew - It has been that long?), I commented on how I was pretty sure two years ago the White House thought this was a good idea:

https://thehill.com/homenews/admini...eeing-pandemic-response-suddenly-leaves-admin

And now Team Trump blames the previous administration for not giving them something that they actucally were given and then dismantled it themselves. The only way Obama's plan had survived was if policies made by the Democratic administration were untouchable by the Republicans. Team Trump should be more careful with what they wish for...
 

SupahEwok

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Back in March (whew - It has been that long?), I commented on how I was pretty sure two years ago the White House thought this was a good idea:

https://thehill.com/homenews/admini...eeing-pandemic-response-suddenly-leaves-admin

And now Team Trump blames the previous administration for not giving them something that they actucally were given and then dismantled it themselves. The only way Obama's plan had survived was if policies made by the Democratic administration were untouchable by the Republicans. Team Trump should be more careful with what they wish for...
And as a matter of fact, George W Bush was the first modern US president to recognize the need for a pandemic response plan. Social distancing and societal lockdown were contributions to the Whitehouse's strategy book from his administration, which Obama took the next few steps along.

Wow, the idea of the opposing parties working with each other's ideas seems so foreign now...
 

lil devils x

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It would be nice if any of his officials could read the 69 page pandemic playbooks Obama left for them or had Trump's current staff members paid attention during the In person pandemic exercise that they participated in that Obama officials led.
Obama left a 69-page playbook
""We literally left them a 69-page Pandemic Playbook.... that they ignored," Ronald Klain, a campaign adviser to Democratic candidate Joe Biden and the former Obama administration Ebola response coordinator, wrote on Twitter.
The playbook -- 40 pages plus appendices -- contains step-by-step advice on questions to ask, decisions to make, and which federal agencies are responsible for what. It includes sample documents that officials could use for inter-agency meetings. And it explicitly lists novel coronaviruses as one of the kinds of pathogens that could require a major response.

The color-coded, checklist-style document addresses issues like testing, funding, personal protective equipment, emergency declarations, border control measures, diplomacy, the use of the military, public communication, even mortuary services.
It lays out dozens of key questions to ask at certain stages of the response ("Should there be arrangements for medevac or in-country clinical care advisory for U.S. Persons?" "What is the robustness of contact tracing?" "Is the incident likely to impact housing such that alternative housing needs may become necessary?") and dozens of key decisions to make ("Determine whether to implement screening and monitoring measures, or other travel measures within the US or globally"; "Prioritization and allocation of resources subject to the Defense Production Act"; "Tailor waste management plans to incident specific conditions").
"While each emerging infectious disease threat will present itself in a unique way, a consistent, capabilities-based approach to addressing these threats will allow for faster decisions with more targeted expert subject matter input from federal departments and agencies," the document says.

"In addition to the playbook, outgoing senior Obama Officials also led an in-person pandemic response exercise for senior incoming Trump officials in January 2017 -- as required by a new law on improving presidential transitions that Obama Signed in 2016. Politico reported this March that the meeting, attended by current Trump Cabinet officials including Energy Secretary Rick Perry and Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao, addressed how to deal with a hypothetical flu crisis, among other scenarios.
"The maddening thing is Obama left them a WH office for pandemics, a literal playbook, a cabinet-level exercise, and a global infrastructure to deal with 'something like this,'" Ben Rhodes, who served as deputy national security adviser to Obama,said on Twitter in response to McConnell's claim."


So instead of admit their inept response to the pandemic, they just bold face lie in an attempt to blame someone else.
 

Gordon_4

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And as a matter of fact, George W Bush was the first modern US president to recognize the need for a pandemic response plan. Social distancing and societal lockdown were contributions to the Whitehouse's strategy book from his administration, which Obama took the next few steps along.

Wow, the idea of the opposing parties working with each other's ideas seems so foreign now...
I’ve been soured on that idea since the Australian Liberal Party destroyed Labour’s National Broadband Network goal of FTTH for like 98% of the country. Out of spite and a non-understanding of the technology.
 

Izanagi009

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Honestly, I feel part of the issue that the states had with the virus response was that they did not have nearly as hard an impact when SARS and the like happened.

In countries like Singapore, Taiwan, and Korea, they had response measures put in place after the SARs epidemic to avoid a major issue. These countries also had some of the best responses to Covid 19 with minimal cases and deaths (though cracks are showing in Singapore's case due to the conditions of foreign workers in the country).

They generally had widespread implementation of technology to track cases and test for the virus, strict quarantine laws and large teams of "tracers" to trace who have been in contact with the infected. However, these responses weren't and will never be possible in America due to two reasons: Size of Country and Difference of Culture

The united states compared to the three countries i listed is far larger with more ports of entry and people to track. As such, tracing the virus becomes harder and the cost of implementing technology to track and test the virus is far higher. As for culture, given the riots and protest over the lockdown compared to how the Asian countries are generally accepting of the strict quarantine laws, American citizens would despise prohibitive lockdown laws like Singapore and would possibly violate them out of spite.

Regardless, the Government must also be blamed for not taking into account the possibility of an outbreak situation and not preparing
 

Izanagi009

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Indeed. But consistent messenging and with the right tone and information can greatly increase the proportion of people who will take good measures.

I think this it particularly objectionable if they are abdicating their responsibilities here just to carry out a sort of PR trick to minimise the blame for screwing up the initial response to the pandemic.

It is depressing for us in the UK to see that we have suffered worse than Italy, despite Italy being caught with its pants around its ankles, and the UK having a whole extra two weeks preparation time over Italy. I know comparisons genuinely are difficult (and Italy may be under-reporting more than the UK). But when the British government argues comparisons are misleading, we all know full well if the UK had the sort of covid-19 casualty rate that Germany did, they'd be trumpting it from every hilltop in the land every hour of every day. When your country fancies itself some sort of global leader and has done an order of magnitude worse than a country with a GDP/capita half as high that within the last ten years was about to collapse into fraud-induced bankruptcy, you can't avoid how incredibly poor it is.
Yeah, and that's not even considering the Taiwanese or Singapore response to the virus. They cracked down hard on it as soon as they noticed something happened. They also had far more measures in place to deal with it considering the SARS epidemic had hit them first
 

lil devils x

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Honestly, I feel part of the issue that the states had with the virus response was that they did not have nearly as hard an impact when SARS and the like happened.

In countries like Singapore, Taiwan, and Korea, they had response measures put in place after the SARs epidemic to avoid a major issue. These countries also had some of the best responses to Covid 19 with minimal cases and deaths (though cracks are showing in Singapore's case due to the conditions of foreign workers in the country).

They generally had widespread implementation of technology to track cases and test for the virus, strict quarantine laws and large teams of "tracers" to trace who have been in contact with the infected. However, these responses weren't and will never be possible in America due to two reasons: Size of Country and Difference of Culture

The united states compared to the three countries i listed is far larger with more ports of entry and people to track. As such, tracing the virus becomes harder and the cost of implementing technology to track and test the virus is far higher. As for culture, given the riots and protest over the lockdown compared to how the Asian countries are generally accepting of the strict quarantine laws, American citizens would despise prohibitive lockdown laws like Singapore and would possibly violate them out of spite.

Regardless, the Government must also be blamed for not taking into account the possibility of an outbreak situation and not preparing
We had a response that was implemented under Obama, Trump discarded it, removed the funding and disbanded the pandemic team and took away their office. He put some of their members on another team and had them focus on bioweapons instead. Trump didn't want to hear about it at all when they tried to get him to act in January and instead he changed the subject to what vaping flavors he could get on the shelf.

The CDC was supposed to release their opening up recommendations this week and Trump didn't like those either and refused to let them release it. Trump being anti science is the biggest failure in the US above all else. Trump thinks his " genius brain" knows better than the CDC and is micromanaging what they are allowed to do here.
 

The Rogue Wolf

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"We think we are going to have a vaccine in the pretty near future, and if we do, we are going to really be a big step ahead and if we don't, we are going to be like so many other cases where you had a problem come in, it'll go away at some point, it'll go away."

These are words that left Trump's mouth in that order. "It'll go away at some point." Yeah, sure, along with how many lives?