Pachter: Sony's 4.1 Million Moves Sold is Wrong

[Greg Tito]

Pachter: Sony's 4.1 Million Moves Sold is Wrong

Analyst Michael Pachter claims that Sony's announcement that it has sold 4.1 million Move units is wrong.

Earlier this week, Microsoft announced that it had sold 4.1 million [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/105704-Microsoft-Sells-2-5-Million-Kinects-in-25-Days] have been sold since they became available in September. But Michael Pachter, an analyst from Wedbush Securities and general videogame pundit, says that Sony's numbers are indicative of how many Move units have been distributed to retailers, but haven't necessarily reached customer's hands. He puts the number of Move controllers being used in people's homes closer to 2.5 million, which would make its actual sales in a tie with Kinect.

"I understand that they sold through around one million through the end of October (tracking NPD results and extrapolating for Europe), and it's reasonable that with the Japanese launch they have sold through another 1.5 million in November, but I'd peg the sell through number at closer to 2.5 million, or exactly on par with Kinect, albeit over a longer time frame," Pachter said.

"If sell-through is the 2.5 million that I estimate, it's logical that shipments would be 4.1 million cumulatively, as demand in December is likely to be higher than the 1.5 million I assumed were sold in November. Yes, impressive, yet likely below the reported figure," he continued. "With all that said, the [4.1 million] number is still impressive."

It's possible that Pachter might be biased, as he fully expects Kinect to outsell the PlayStation Move this season. "I think that Microsoft still has an advantage at holiday, with a larger installed base of consoles, more momentum, and a slightly more unique experience," he said. "I would expect Kinect to outsell Move in December."

To find out more about how Michael Pachter makes his predictions and what kind of games he plays himself, look into The Crystal Ball of Michael Pachter [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/articles/view/issues/issue_280/8315-The-Crystal-Ball-of-Michael-Pachter].

Source: Eurogamer [http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2010-12-01-move-and-kinect-sales-neck-and-neck]

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[DTWolfwood]

we know.

Sony Marketing are terrible with words.

 

[Onyx Oblivion]

I thought that we all knew it was just shipped?

Sony is providing this bullshit to the public to make themselves look good.

I don't mind this from most companies, but I thought that Sony was better than this. Always the scrappy underdog, but with integrity, at least.

I suppose I should have lost faith in them when they started pretending that the PSP's real competition was iPhone gaming, and not the DS.

 

[uppitycracker]

when this guy talks, i just immediately stop caring about the subject matter. not sure why, maybe it's a natural defense mechanism for general bullshit.

 

[Dafttechno]

More like iPhone gaming apps were stealing what little share of the market they had. In 2008, PSP had 20% of the mobile game market (ranked by revenue from software) while iPhone gaming had 5%, leaving the DS with the lion's share at 75%. In 2009, PSP dropped down to 11% and iPhone gaming jumped to 19%, with the DS still raking more than both combined at 70%.

 

[Ben Gepfrey]

Are these numbers for the move starter bundle or just the main controller or both? Still seems like Sony should sell a lot more Moves as they are $50-$90 cheaper. Also can't you use more than one Move controller per PS3? Sounds to me like it is sucking in the sales department.

 

[manaman]

we know.

Sony Marketing are terrible with words.

What you mean like lying about creating a forum fan site, then telling people they where just to cool to fool them when they get caught? Those kinds of troubles with words?

 

[Mattox33]

You know I bet if Nintendo counted every controller sale as a "unit", it would likely be well within the hundreds of millions. Sony should really only be counting it's EyeToy sales if they want to play hardball.

 

[jackanderson]

Oh, come on!

I thought my terrible running gags about Pachter had convinced you to stop writing about this man! And yet, here he is again! Spewing more bullshit (although, to be fair, when Sony says it has SHIPPED 4.1million Move controllers even they are admitting they haven't SOLD 4.1million Move controllers) that anybody could do and get paid for!

You better just be glad that my "cannot be arsed" meter is full right now, or I'd pull out yet another shit gag.

 

[matrix3509]

Pachter: Sony's 4.1 Million Moves Sold is Wrong

Analyst Michael Pachter claims that Sony's announcement that it has sold 4.1 million Move units is wrong.

Earlier this week, Microsoft announced that it had sold 4.1 million [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/105704-Microsoft-Sells-2-5-Million-Kinects-in-25-Days] have been sold since they became available in September. But Michael Pachter, an analyst from Wedbush Securities and general videogame pundit, says that Sony's numbers are indicative of how many Move units have been distributed to retailers, but haven't necessarily reached customer's hands. He puts the number of Move controllers being used in people's homes closer to 2.5 million, which would make its actual sales in a tie with Kinect.

"I understand that they sold through around one million through the end of October (tracking NPD results and extrapolating for Europe), and it's reasonable that with the Japanese launch they have sold through another 1.5 million in November, but I'd peg the sell through number at closer to 2.5 million, or exactly on par with Kinect, albeit over a longer time frame," Pachter said.

"If sell-through is the 2.5 million that I estimate, it's logical that shipments would be 4.1 million cumulatively, as demand in December is likely to be higher than the 1.5 million I assumed were sold in November. Yes, impressive, yet likely below the reported figure," he continued. "With all that said, the [4.1 million] number is still impressive."

It's possible that Pachter might be biased, as he fully expects Kinect to outsell the PlayStation Move this season. "I think that Microsoft still has an advantage at holiday, with a larger installed base of consoles, more momentum, and a slightly more unique experience," he said. "I would expect Kinect to outsell Move in December."

To find out more about how Michael Pachter makes his predictions and what kind of games he plays himself, look into The Crystal Ball of Michael Pachter [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/articles/view/issues/issue_280/8315-The-Crystal-Ball-of-Michael-Pachter].

Source: Eurogamer [http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2010-12-01-move-and-kinect-sales-neck-and-neck]

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Except Pachter is full of bullshit. Each unit that has shipped has already been bought by the retailers themselves. Sony has already made their money. Therefor yes, they have sold that many units. The problem is that the retailers haven't yet made all of their money back plus a tidy profit, by selling off the units they already have.

 

[The Rockerfly]

I hate Pachter but I think he is right on this matter. Actually I think both companies are lying about it, trying to recreate the success the Wii had. Hopefully trying to break even as quickly as possible

They may have sold 4.1 million to retailers but it doesn't mean they are going to buy any more after thus. It depends if people who already own the console are buying it or it's actually encouraging people to buy the console. If the former then less will be bought afterwards because the market is limited to the few people who bought a console previously and want motion controls
However if it is penetrating into the new motion controls market then yes they will keep selling more. I really doubt that though because why buy a ps3 and a move when you can just buy a Wii for half the cost

Or both markets are buying it but I don't think consumers are acting that rationally to these new motion controllers

 

[DiMono]

I find the idea of player body movement based gaming amusing. Don't we usually play games so that we can relax without having to do anything physical? Now it's a competitive field for sales. Weird.

 

[RanD00M]

Can we please stop making news that are related to Pachter? It seems like every fifth news post is somehow related to him. Are there no other analysts in the business?

OT: Well thanks you Captain Obvious. But your help wasn't needed there.[footnote]Aimed at Pacther not Greg.[/footnote]

 

[DTWolfwood]

we know.

Sony Marketing are terrible with words.

What you mean like lying about creating a forum fan site, then telling people they where just to cool to fool them when they get caught? Those kinds of troubles with words?

aye. Exception being Kevin Butler. XD

 

[Exort]

A bit late. But Sony already told gamespot that the number is shipped to retailer not sold. They said it was a confusion cause by sold to retailer not sold to consumer.

 

[RobCoxxy]

I know a fair few people who bought Kinect, but absolutely nobody I know has bothered with Move.

 

[Credge]

Except Pachter is full of bullshit. Each unit that has shipped has already been bought by the retailers themselves. Sony has already made their money. Therefor yes, they have sold that many units. The problem is that the retailers haven't yet made all of their money back plus a tidy profit, by selling off the units they already have.

I'm convinced they have.

It was incredibly tedious finding move controllers in my area. Couldn't find an Eye anywhere. Both the PS3 with the move stuffs and the little move starter kit have been sold out here for a long time now.

 

[Unrulyhandbag]

Sony sales figures are ALWAYS to retail just like Nintendo and normally Microsoft figures it's MS that are being odd on this one.

Sony has already made their money. Therefor yes, they have sold that many units.

I'm convinced they have.

It was incredibly tedious finding move controllers in my area. Couldn't find an Eye anywhere. Both the PS3 with the move stuffs and the little move starter kit have been sold out here for a long time now.

Have to agree, trying to find a bundle for a present and there simply aren't any out there at the minute. When I got my wands at launch there wasn't a camera anywhere to find either so just as well I already had one. Of course the USA is a whole different market but (once again) I doubt Pachter is right.

You know I bet if Nintendo counted every controller sale as a "unit", it would likely be well within the hundreds of millions. Sony should really only be counting it's EyeToy sales if they want to play hardball.

The eye is a separate product that lots of people didn't need to buy, the move is the wand that's why they count them.

 

[Atmos Duality]

Actually, Pachter's statement makes sense to me.

Consider how Sony and Microsoft are almost neck-and-neck now in Consoles sold (for reals, as in, actually in use) and the saturation model fits.

Assuming this is true, there are roughly as many potential Kinect customers as there are potential Move customers because the Kinect and Move are complimentary products to their respective system.

However, neither new system (Kinect vs Move) is market-proven yet, so potential customers on both sides are probably suspicious, especially since the Wii has been on the market for, what, almost 4 years now (it's a control product because it has already achieved market saturation)?

Since the overall price isn't that different between the two, I'm guessing that the Kinect will narrowly pull ahead in the short term just due to the fact that it resembles the Wii less. With both systems being relative unknowns right now (and some truly mediocre 1st-gen software), this distinction is the best basis we have for each motion system getting its own identity beyond the usual marketing bullshit.

Though the distinction isn't nearly enough now; both Sony and Microsoft are likely to pull numbers right out of their asses to prove which one is "better", at least until after Christmas.

For the long run...
As software for both platforms develops (assuming the systems don't just flop right after Christmas, which isn't likely, but still possible) we will begin to see which one is truly the "better system".

 

[RowdyRodimus]

A bit late. But Sony already told gamespot that the number is shipped to retailer not sold. They said it was a confusion cause by sold to retailer not sold to consumer.

Also technically they can say 4.1 million have sold since they ship to the stores that bought them from Sony. Once they are bought by say Walmart, Sony doesn't give a shit what they do with them or sell them for, they already have their money (unless they do a consignment like thing which is the dumbest thing a company can do when selling their products).