Research Warns of Possible Game Industry Crash

[BlameTheWizards]

Research Warns of Possible Game Industry Crash

Findings by consultancy group SuperData Research suggests the current market is oversaturated with gaming devices.

The video game industry crash of the 1980s is still something that gets talked about a lot, even if many gamers today were only peripherally aware of it when it happened. The abridged version is that the market overflowed with games and consoles to the point where people lost interest and stopped buying them, which makes it kind of like a larger scale version of the Guitar Hero and Rock Band music game fad a few years back.

Well, SuperData Research, a New York-based research consultancy, warns that such a situation might happen to the entire industry again in the near future. "Industry veterans will remember the crash of 1983, when the games market was saturated with hardware devices," reads an excerpt from the report. "Today, the industry runs a similar risk, as [with] a higher-than-ever console installed base, consumers may be resistant to adding more hardware to their living rooms." According to the report, 79 of gamers already own a console, with 2.6 consoles being the average number owned. While the report noted that there are now more people who identify as gamers than ever before, many of them play on multi-purpose devices such as computers or mobile phones. Because of this, there isn't necessarily a demand for more consoles.

The study provides some interesting numbers to back up this claim. In 2008, 42 percent of gamers played primarily on a console, 37 percent primarily on a PC and 5 percent did most of their gaming on mobile devices. A survey this past March, though, shows that now 51 percent of gamers play primarily on a PC, 30 percent on consoles and 13 percent on mobile devices.

What do you think of SuperData Research's findings? While preorder sales for the Xbox One and PlayStation 4 <a href=http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/125289-PS4-and-Xbox-One-Drive-Amazon-Pre-Orders-Through-the-Roof> are through the roof, will there be enough long-term interest in a market where they need to contend more heavily with PCs, mobile gaming and browser-based games?

Source: <a href=http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2013-10-03-gaming-risks-a-repeat-of-1983-crash-report> GamesIndustry.biz via <a hrefm=http://gamepolitics.com/2013/10/03/research-firm-industry-could-be-headed-1983-style-crash>Gamepolitics.com

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[Adon Cabre]

So gamers being... Facebook games? What are the parameters of this survey? What's the classification of a gamer? What is their definition of "Casual" and "Hardcore"?


(And one of the sources -- gamepolitics -- isn't working.)

 

[FalloutJack]

The industry and demand is far too complicated for a crash now. You might see a decline and for some companies to take a hit because of the issue, but crashing is no longer possible at this point.

 

[AstaresPanda]

maybe one thing that might help is for them to stop churning out re-hashed bullshit every year. They have kinda gotten themselves into this mess by getting greedy. Example BF3 2 years later BF4 after all the money ppl put into BF3 over 100 you'd think there would be some more life in your investment but nope....Its time to churn out another one.

 

[SonOfVoorhees]

So gamers being... Facebook? What are the parameters of this survey? What's the classification of a gamer? What is their definition of "Casual" and "Hardcore"?


(And one of the sources -- gamepolitics -- isn't working.)

Exactly what i thought. Alot of that PC percentage include people playing farmville etc. Doesnt specifically state they Steam based gamers or FB based gamers.

As far as a gaming crash. If it happens then it happens. Not much anyone can do about it.

 

[Kargathia]

It'll be down to which trend goes faster: the continuous integration of entertainment devices, or the oversaturation of the console market.

Either way, the dedicated gaming box will be going the way of the dodo. Chances are this'll be the last generation of consoles as we know it.

Which is exciting, really, as it means we'll get to see a lot of truly new concepts - some of which might even catch on.

 

[Fox12]

I wan under the impression that the reason games crashed was because there was a monopoly, and all the games being produced were shovelware. Which is the opposite of what's happening now. Increased diversity is good. More hardware means more competition, which mean more innovation and consumer friendly practices (sorry Microsoft).

 

[Ukomba]

Miss leading title. It's not a Game Industry Crash, it would be a console crash.

Also, you have to be careful when talking percentages. While it's certainly true consoles are loosing ground, the total number of people playing videogames in both those survey years should be taken into account. It is possible for a console could loose market share, but increase it's total sales if it's not growing as fast as the industry.

 

[Adam Jensen_v1legacy]

They're wrong. As far as hardware goes, it's never been better. Big publishers are the problem, not the hardware. We are finally getting the hardware that developers wanted for so long. Now it's up to the publishers to let their developers get creative. If they don't, the AAA market will be oversaturated with shitty games, and the AAA market may crash, or simply some of the publishers and studios may perish. But other than that, the next generation of consoles should be quite healthy for the industry. Both consoles are cheaper than their predecessors, and that's without accounting for the inflation. Which is really good. There's a lineup of really great games coming out as well. And not to mention, the sheer number of people who play video games today is god knows how much bigger than it was back in 1983. Consoles are the number one Christmas gift, and this year new ones are coming out. Gaming is becoming more and more an everyday thing for most people, like TV. Actually, TV content is the thing that's on it's way out. They're also neglecting the existence of the Internet and how fundamental it is for the gaming industry.

Long story short, this research is 100% wrong.

 

[Agayek]

We will never see another crash like 1983. The market and industry is too fundamentally different and is not almost entirely reliant on a single company for there to ever be a crash like that again, outside of a wider economic crash.

At worst, the console hardware market will prove impossible to break into and the Steambox will end up floundering.

That said, I am kinda hopeful that someone in a position of a power will read this and then the console manufacturers will stop the stupid proprietary bullshit they've had going for forever and agree on a single format that will make any game work on any console.

 

[Britpoint]

If hardware manufacturers find themselves worried about this, all they need to do is start putting proper backwards compatibility back into their consoles. Average Jo may be unwilling to add another device to her living room, but she'd be perfectly willing to replace the old one with a shiny new box that wont render her old games obsolete.

 

[DragonStorm247]

This research is only looking at hardware, and not the real factor behind the crash: the surplus of shovelware games. You know, "games," the entire point of this industry?

This report reads like my mother; "people have enough nintendos now, so they don't have to buy any more."

 

[KoudelkaMorgan]

My interest in games has certainly crashed in the last 2 or 3 years. I also agree that there are way too many different platforms out there now. There are the consoles themselves obviously, but PC is pretty divided these days. You got Steam, GFWL, Origin, GoG, and probably more. Not to mention the various OS they may or may not be compatible with. Even among mobile games there are divides along iOS/Android etc. party lines. Each Kickstarter I see these days for a game I really want to play has at least 4 stretch goals to port it to like 8 different consoles, though this is in part due to the bizarre need for them to make it to current AND next gen consoles. That ought to be eliminated in a year or 2 hopefully.

At this point its at least simple for me. I own a PS3, a 3DS XL, and maybe will get a PS4 in a few years. As my TV is still messed up my interest in that is minimal. I DO plan on getting Dark Souls 2 oddly enough, even if I need to use someone else's TV.

I also own a Wii, but it has been nothing but a total waste of money. I do not plan on getting a Wii U, as so far only 1 game actually interests me. Super Mario 3D Land U or whatever its called. The one with the kitty suit. I wanna play as catgirl Peach, and I always want to play as Toad. He is a fun guy.

 

[Icehearted]

A crash would be a welcome flush of this toilet. The market is working to hard to take as much as possible while giving as little as possible, it's become a landscape of fleecing, DRM, mistrust, and a lot of consumer exploitation. I doubt that it would happen because the environment is vastly different than it was during the first crash, and smaller devs as well as a handful of larger developers still listen to their demographic and treat them respectfully.

The bigger companies need to break apart, they're too big, they've got too much control, and are losing sight because they think their monopolies on IPs and brands have made them immune to disaster. The idiots that say a game must sell 8 million copies in order to not be a failure have themselves already failed. They need a reality slap, but may never get one.

Also, too many people out there have proven they will pay anything for something, however stupid or trivial. People that bought a $5 light saber for their Xbox avatars have proven at least that much.

 

[deathbydeath]

Escapist newsfolks, stop it with the sensationalist titles. I'm not even going to say please. The original stuff from Superdata talked about how people aren't as willing to buy next-gen consoles because they either already have a console or they prefer mobile or PC gaming. This is not a games industry crash; this is the demand vanishing from the console market. Stop your apocalypse mongering and give us some actual goddamn news.

Besides, a total industry crash ain't going to happen. The game industry is not what it was at all back in the 80's. Even then, the crash was only limited to North America; Japan was just fine. Read Wikipedia for God's sake.

 

[ZZoMBiE13]

That is preposterous. The great crash of 83 happened because the market was saturated with too much software, not too much hardware. They devalued their own products by putting out so many crappy games.

What we have now is choice. Choice to play a game on console, choice to play the same game on the PC. And the games aren't sitting in bins marked down for a nickel per cart.

I'm not saying there's no chance for Doom & Gloom, but I honestly don't see how anyone could assume that an industry that has been in a state of growth over the last decade could be in danger of losing it's relevance. The market may not support every console out there, that's what capitalism IS. The strong survive, and Sony or MS are likely not going to be dropping the more profitable arms of the empires any time in the near future.

If.. IF... there was another big economic crash in another major market, maybe. But that is hardly repeating the past crash of 83, that's a new problem.

 

[Glaice]

I am awaiting for another crash, we need it to get at least one major publisher to be crushed and to change some of the stupid tactics (IE stupid DLC, always on, etc) in the industry.

 

[Something Amyss]

I wan under the impression that the reason games crashed was because there was a monopoly, and all the games being produced were shovelware. Which is the opposite of what's happening now. Increased diversity is good. More hardware means more competition, which mean more innovation and consumer friendly practices (sorry Microsoft).

There was no monopoly, and in fact little to no control over releases.

 

[Segadroid]

I think the warning bells shouldn't ring too quickly now, but we can always be weary.

I do agree there is a chance that at least part of the industry will collapse under it's own weight. But if it does, the community is a hundred if not thousand times bigger than back in the day, not to mention the influx of indie developers which will ensure that there will always be new talent to replace the old and lost.