Research Warns of Possible Game Industry Crash

[Aiddon_v1legacy]

The industry and demand is far too complicated for a crash now. You might see a decline and for some companies to take a hit because of the issue, but crashing is no longer possible at this point.

Except that's never been true for anything. For example, the stock market changed since the Great Depression BUT that didn't stop other Crashes from happening. They weren't as big as the Big One, but they still happened. Nothing is immune to multiple crashes.

Anyway, we might be in for another crash due to rampant problems in the industry; we have all sorts of companies who are sloppily managed with no regard to quality assurance and instead of looking inward and worrying about long-term stability and growth they seem to be obsessed with instant gratification and profit as well as trying to squeeze every drop they can out of properties. It's a system that can't work forever and the major 3rd parties are unwilling to admit their problems and change things. At this rate a crash WILL happen; it won't be as big as 83, but things are going to get shaken. Either a major publisher like Activision, Ubisoft, EA, or 2K is going to collapse or one of the Big Three is going to get knocked out of the hardware war due to a system flopping (more than likely either Sony or MS). The INDUSTRY wouldn't collapse but things would have to change due to the status quo being disturbed.

 

[FalloutJack]

Snip

Good thought, but no. The stock market is not the same as the video game industry. Video game industries have stocks, but this is not a stock-related matter. Or rather, anything going wrong would affect the stocks as a result, but not as a reason. It's not a true parallel.

 

[Lunar Templar]

lol, no

the industry as a whole, won't collapse. We might lose the AAA market for a few years, but no real loss there imo. We still have a thriving indie market, so, these guys are idiots :3

 

[WhiteTigerShiro]

Yeah, and for most of the last decade there's been doom-saying about how there'll be a crash worse than The Great Depression "just around the corner". I'll worry about it if and when it happens, until then, these "consultants" are about as useful as homeless people walking around with "the end is near" signs.

 

[Raziel]

Game Industry collapse like the 80s, no. THere is no way games are going to disappear now. They are on too many devices and being made by too many different people.

Now is it possible that consoles could collapse? Possibly, but I'm not worried about it. Sure there are more options. But really only the big 3 worth counting. No telling what steam will come out with yet, but it doesn't sound like a console, so I doubt its really going to be a game changer.

What I am worried about are AAA games. The huge cost of them makes them vulnerable. And they are why I game. Sure angry birds, ftl, fez, etc... are games but they aren't what excites me, they aren't what gets me to save and buy hardware. If the AAA games disappear I won't keep spending $600+ a year on games.

 

[Doom972]

So gamers being... Facebook? What are the parameters of this survey? What's the classification of a gamer? What is their definition of "Casual" and "Hardcore"?


(And one of the sources -- gamepolitics -- isn't working.)

Exactly what i thought. Alot of that PC percentage include people playing farmville etc. Doesnt specifically state they Steam based gamers or FB based gamers.

As far as a gaming crash. If it happens then it happens. Not much anyone can do about it.

Perhaps many of those PC gamers are actually casuals, but I'm sure that many of the console gamers taken into consideration only play their favorite sports game (FIFA/NFL/NHL/NBA) + CoD, or are Wii users who just bought it for Wii sports and similar games. The casuals on both PC and console probably balance each other.

 

[Nurb]

Let it happen, let the huge companies bankrupt, and new independent developers can pop up without being crushed into the dirt by mega-corps.

And NO more mictroctransactions, and devs can develop what they want... it'll be like the 90's all over again. (I hope)

 

[Rednog]

devs can develop what they want... it'll be like the 90's all over again. (I hope)

I don't think you remember the 90s correctly. It was pretty much the same silliness we have now, there was no magical period where developers just made what they want and thus a plethora of amazing games spewed out. Just like now there were a few diamonds among the piles of shit. Heck if the past really was so amazing we probably wouldn't have guys like the AVGN and all his copies running around.

 

[Nurb]

devs can develop what they want... it'll be like the 90's all over again. (I hope)

I don't think you remember the 90s correctly. It was pretty much the same silliness we have now, there was no magical period where developers just made what they want and thus a plethora of amazing games spewed out. Just like now there were a few diamonds among the piles of shit. Heck if the past really was so amazing we probably wouldn't have guys like the AVGN and all his copies running around.

Oh I do... and Oh yes, they did.

 

[TallanKhan]

The findings of this report could lead you to assume that people are giving up console gaming in favour of PC and mobile devices. However, the key statistic that is missing is how many people in total were catagorised as gamers in 2008 and 2013 respectivley.

Now I can't say for certain but I would imagine that when the research was conducted the question asked was not "do you identify as a gamer?" but "do you play games?" and as such this will cover anyone who plays games of any description, from the commuter playing CandyCrush on their phone on the way to work, to the Facebook user playing their browser games.

I would suggest that many of these people -who would all fit into the PC / mobile device catagories- are not people who have been wooed away from console gaming, but are in fact people who five years ago werent gaming atall.

This would paint a very different picture. Still potentially worrying for console makers, as even this scenario would signal that their is a growing market that they have failed to tap into in any meaningful way, but not the looming disaster the article suggests.

In short I don't think console gaming will see a particular impact from this, people who game on consoles are unlikely, in my opinion, to be drawn into giving them up in favour of playing games on their phone or via Facebook.

 

[Aiddon_v1legacy]

Good thought, but no. The stock market is not the same as the video game industry. Video game industries have stocks, but this is not a stock-related matter. Or rather, anything going wrong would affect the stocks as a result, but not as a reason. It's not a true parallel.

It doesn't just happen with stocks; everything economic wise has highs and lows. After a large period of growth there is a period of stagnation for instance. Crashes happen all the time and there's no way to immunize something against that. A crash WILL happen, just not on the same level as '83.

 

[FalloutJack]

Good thought, but no. The stock market is not the same as the video game industry. Video game industries have stocks, but this is not a stock-related matter. Or rather, anything going wrong would affect the stocks as a result, but not as a reason. It's not a true parallel.

It doesn't just happen with stocks; everything economic wise has highs and lows. After a large period of growth there is a period of stagnation for instance. Crashes happen all the time and there's no way to immunize something against that. A crash WILL happen, just not on the same level as '83.

I'm of the opinion that it's not a crash unless it has the impact of one. Highs and lows, of course. That's economics. Crashes are the result of an extreme failing that has nothing to grip for a safety net, no margin for error and a margin just showed itself. To be referred to as a crash, I feel as though it should do the harm one did. The stock market crash (which was only the tip of the iceberg) was "Oh crap, there's little or no money to spread around!". The video game crash, if I recall right, is the saturation of games to the point where few people want them in an age where they were still just a curiosity.

The gaming industry is this strong because it's also wanted. It can't go back. It can take a few hits, and even some companies may die, but I've been seeing a few go under anyway, so that's not new or as impacting. It doesn't speak to me as a crash in the same sense. A crash should panic us, and I don't think it's reaching that level.

 

[MorphingDragon]

That said, I am kinda hopeful that someone in a position of a power will read this and then the console manufacturers will stop the stupid proprietary bullshit they've had going for forever and agree on a single format that will make any game work on any console.

You mean like a standard computer running a Microsoft operating system?

We've had that since the 90s. You could play DOOM on an IBM *and* an HP. ;P

 

[Agayek]

You mean like a standard computer running a Microsoft operating system?

We've had that since the 90s. You could play DOOM on an IBM *and* an HP. ;P

Yea, or DVD players.

As it stands right now, it's kinda like you could buy a DVD and have it only work on Toshiba players, for example.

 

[Fox12]

I wan under the impression that the reason games crashed was because there was a monopoly, and all the games being produced were shovelware. Which is the opposite of what's happening now. Increased diversity is good. More hardware means more competition, which mean more innovation and consumer friendly practices (sorry Microsoft).

There was no monopoly, and in fact little to no control over releases.

Hmm. I guess I heard wrong then. Still, I don't think games will crash completely, but the changing markets will force developers to adapt. Steam is already ahead of the curve. gaming is too mainstream to just die out in a catastrophic moment. The industry may hurt, and some people may lose jobs. Square Enix and even Capcom reflect this. But games as a whole won't go anywhere.

 

[Triality]

The average gamer is 29 years old, if that statistic still holds water. This demographic is the prime of their careers and money earning potential; myself being one such. There is no crash coming. Their findings are simply the trough on the sine wave that is the marketplace. It's changing, not crashing. Who has ever seen a tide remain in the same position? There's too much money to be made, passed around, and in circulation for there to be a crash.

And to the proponents that think a crash will be a good thing. The developers, studios, and companies it will harm most are the ones doing the most collective good for the industry, and the ones that ride it out will keep slopping the hogs with endless "SPORTS GAME THE GAME 20XX AD INFINITUM" AND "GRUFF ARMY SHOOTER GUY THE SHOOTER!" sequels and less experimental properties will never get the funding to see the light of day. Shame on you.

 

[Aiddon_v1legacy]

I'm of the opinion that it's not a crash unless it has the impact of one. Highs and lows, of course. That's economics. Crashes are the result of an extreme failing that has nothing to grip for a safety net, no margin for error and a margin just showed itself. To be referred to as a crash, I feel as though it should do the harm one did. The stock market crash (which was only the tip of the iceberg) was "Oh crap, there's little or no money to spread around!". The video game crash, if I recall right, is the saturation of games to the point where few people want them in an age where they were still just a curiosity.

The gaming industry is this strong because it's also wanted. It can't go back. It can take a few hits, and even some companies may die, but I've been seeing a few go under anyway, so that's not new or as impacting. It doesn't speak to me as a crash in the same sense. A crash should panic us, and I don't think it's reaching that level.

Which again means you're missing the point and trying to rewrite a definition. Fact of the matter is crashes can be of various sizes. The stock market crash of 1929 was by far the biggest and do you how many crashes we've had since then: 4. At minimum. One in 73, another in 87, yet another in 2002, and of course the famous one in 2008. They were of varying impacts, none quite hitting '29 but all of them being pretty significant. Nothing is recession-proof or crash-proof. And of course the people who are most surprised when said things hit are also the ones who think a crash can't happen. It's the same kind of mindset comic book fans had before the industry imploded in the 90s. And keep in mind that was an industry that had been around for decades longer than games.

 

[FalloutJack]

Snip

Dude, no. You're just quibbling personal feelings now. That's not a point missed. That's you not liking my opinion. AND you're condescending. Don't be.

 

[Jackel86]

This report reads like my mother; "people have enough nintendos now, so they don't have to buy any more."

Lol. That's a pretty good summary. Pretty much what I thought.

Interesting that PCs are gaining ground, though. I wonder if that's gamers actually being more interested in PC gaming for some reason (quality, easier access than before, free multiplayer, etc.) and being willing to make the sacrifices necessary to make that investment, or are gamers just able to afford bigger investments now that that our mean age has increased, correlating with higher incomes?