How Big Will Hard Drives Get? Fun with Math
- Thread starter Rhykker
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But Assumption 2 is already shot. The industry-revolutionising breakthrough is already upon us - affordable SSDs, which (based on current prices) divide the numbers by a factor of about 8-10 (a 250Gb SSD [http://www.amazon.co.uk/Crucial-CT256MX100SSD1-256GB-Includes-Spacer/dp/B00KFAGCWK/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&qid=1422496061&sr=8-3&keywords=250gb+ssd] costs not far off as much as a 2Tb HDD [http://www.amazon.co.uk/Seagate-Barracuda-inch-Internal-Drive/dp/B006H32Q3S/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1422496091&sr=8-2&keywords=2tb+hdd]), and as they become more prominent, so storage may well scale down.
Cloud storage is not looking likely to revolutionise the industry any time soon.
Cloud storage is not looking likely to revolutionise the industry any time soon.
Agreed. I think most desktop PC users have an SSD for their system drive (OS and productivity applications) and a traditional HD for their data (movies, music, photos, etc). Games also tend to wind up on the data drive by virtue of being storage hungry. In laptops, SSDs are starting to overtake HDs as the single drive.Kinitawowi said:
It will be interesting to see what happens here. Will speed win out over price?
Facebook now stores all its data on SSDs. The cost must be astronomical, but the access times are clearly worth it for them.
I also disagree with this quick assessment, but in the opposite direction as the above posters; we've already seen with processing power that eventually you hit the physical limitations of miniaturization and have to look to find whole new ways of processing. I suspect something similar will happen (eventually, it could be soon or it could be way down the line) and the rate of advancement will drastically slow baring another new breakthrough (which granted is not impossible)
Edit: From the numerous quoting of my comment by people who almost certainly know more about hard drive technology than me I have learned that I was very very wrong about ssd being new technology, and have removed that section of my post. I was mostly attempting to convey a parallel between what happened in the development of one aspect of technology to another I felt reasonably comparable: that it seems logical to me that eventually (emphasis eventually and likely not soon as other people have pointed out to me) storage will face problems miniaturizing the technology
Edit: From the numerous quoting of my comment by people who almost certainly know more about hard drive technology than me I have learned that I was very very wrong about ssd being new technology, and have removed that section of my post. I was mostly attempting to convey a parallel between what happened in the development of one aspect of technology to another I felt reasonably comparable: that it seems logical to me that eventually (emphasis eventually and likely not soon as other people have pointed out to me) storage will face problems miniaturizing the technology
The first SSD's entered the enterprise sector in the 90's it just took time like everything does for it to enter the consumer sphere (I bought my SSD in 2007 it will be 8 years old this year hardly new)MoltenSilver said:
The 8TD Seagate drive is for archive only as to get that capacity it uses "shingled recording" were the platters are staggered rather than right on top of each other. This causes a significant loss in read/write performance that makes them unsuitable for consumer uses.
Also for games consoles the bigger problem is the vast reduction in research the 3 HDD makers are giving to 2.5" HDD's as SSD's replace them in the enterprise and premium laptops. This is why only 1 single model exists with a capacity over 1TB and it's rumoured to be ending production to lack of demand.
Also for games consoles the bigger problem is the vast reduction in research the 3 HDD makers are giving to 2.5" HDD's as SSD's replace them in the enterprise and premium laptops. This is why only 1 single model exists with a capacity over 1TB and it's rumoured to be ending production to lack of demand.
It's not only impossible, but it's likely. In fact, maintaining the current rate of growth (doubling capacity roughly every two years) has relied on a succession of breakthroughs. The history of the industry is rife with engineers saying that we've hit the limit with regard to hard drive density, volatile memory capacity, processor speed, bus speed, etc. And then, some smarter engineer comes along and turns current thinking on its head by doing the "impossible." A few months later, that technology is in your office, living room and/or cell phone.MoltenSilver said:
No, speed will come down in price. SSDs are already cheap compared to five years ago and all but free compared to a decade ago, in another five years I bet they'll only somewhat more expensive than spinning platter drives.SnowWookie said:
Once SSDs are the default, price wars will start as the OEMs fight to get those manufacturing contracts. When I can have a couple of 1TB SSDs in my system I'll be happy chappy.
SSD's aren't really new technology. More... Repurposing and repackaging of existing things.MoltenSilver said:
Fundamentally they are pretty much the same technology as memory cards. SD Cards, even the memory cards from old consoles, all work along similar principles to an SSD...
In some ways it just shows how circular the nature of technology can be. While not exactly the same, SSD's have far more in common with the ROM cartridges most game consoles used during the 80's and early 90's than they do with hard drives...
It's not really a matter of technology as such, merely cost. Solid state storage has always been very expensive relatively speaking... SSD's by comparison are quite cheap. Still nowhere near the same level as mechanical/magnetic hard drives, but much closer than comparable storage would have been in the past...
Really? Because I have a 2TB 2.5" drive, and I'm fairly certain there were alternatives in the same capacity made by other manufacturers...P-89 Scorpion said:
(I assume you are referring to hard disks, and not game consoles here).
We certainly haven't reached the point where there's only a single model of 2.5" drive over 1 TB yet...
Though the Hard Drive market in general is looking pretty flaky with just Seagate and Western Digital really still making much of anything... (Well, toshiba still makes drives, but on the whole, that's it...)
It's already in use and allows the platters to be stacked closer together for higher capacity but no performance increase.Rhykker said:
WD/Hitachi will have a 10TB 3.5" HDD using both helium and shingled platter stacking this year though where we go from here is anyone's guess (helium and shingled platters were on the road map over 5 years ago but there has been no updates to what new methods will be used just 'something will come along')
It does make a difference what height your 2.5" HDD has as it may or may not fit your laptop.CrystalShadow said:
Is your current HDD a 1TB or under model? or is your laptop a 17" desk top replacement? because otherwise watch out.
Eh, I don't upgrade it anymore. It's 9 years old. There's no point. But for the record, it's gone through 3 drives in it's life, and is currently using a 500 gb samsung drive. The drive bay is so large though that I highly doubt I'd be able to find something that doesn't fit...P-89 Scorpion said:
There are some high-end ultrabook-type laptops out there that won't take a 9.5mm drive - they're 7mm only. Lenovo in particular are a bugger for it.CrystalShadow said:
ugh. Anything to make it a couple of millimeters thinner right? XDKinitawowi said:
It's almost laughable how ridiculous we get with tech these days... Sure a 1.5 kg laptop is easier to carry around than a 3 kg one...
But is it REALLY going to matter that it's 17 mm thick instead of 14?
That's probably the worst of your assumptions.Rhykker said:
FOR MOVIES: It's very unlikely that people will be storing large numbers of 4k videos on their local hard drive. The industry certainly won't allow people to just have digital versions of their movies (illegal downloads aside...people who do that habitually have already found ways to increase their storage without the need for stupidly large individual hard drives...they won't be driving the demand for larger storage enough to push the entire PC industry in that direction). There are also so many streaming options that don't even require a computer.
FOR GAMES: Cost of game development is pretty directly related to install size of games. We're already reaching a plateau where AAA game development is prohibitively expensive. I doubt we'll be seeing double the install size because that would imply roughly double the development costs, and pretty much no game would be profitable then.
All other file types just don't take up that much space. Even a massive library of music, pictures or other assorted files will fit on existing storage hardware.