Analyst Advises Activision to Acquire Rock Band

[Logan Westbrook]

Analyst Advises Activision to Acquire Rock Band

One of Activision's key franchises is circling the drain, and sales estimates for Guitar Hero games are getting some major pruning.

It's been on the cards for a while, but it seems like the Guitar Hero series has finally run out of steam and taken Activision's dreams of music game domination with it. According to one analyst, the situation is so bad that the only way Activision is going to get anyone to care about a new Guitar Hero game is by cutting a deal with Viacom and linking it to the Rock Band franchise.

Cowen and Company analyst Doug Creutz thought that interest in music games had effectively reset itself back to the levels it was at before Guitar Hero exploded onto the scene in 2006. He said that Cowen and Company had revised its sales estimate for Guitar Hero: Warriors of Rock [http://www.amazon.com/Guitar-Hero-Warriors-Stand-Alone-Xbox-360/dp/B003N5ZXU6/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1288024661&sr=8-1], cutting it from 2.5 million US sales in the fourth quarter of 2010, to just 1 million. There was some small comfort for Activision however, although it was bittersweet at best, as Creutz said that Guitar Hero made so little difference to Activision's overall results, it was no longer a focus for investor's concerns.

I can't help but feel that Creutz is overcomplicated things. Activision could try to revitalize the Guitar Hero series with a Voltron-esque team-up with Rock Band, but it would probably be just as effective to wait a year or two before releasing another game, and try to make it a really good one. It's not wizardry or eldritch arts that make the Rock Band games score higher than the Guitar Hero games, it's that Harmonix is taking its time and isn't firing them out at a rate of at least one a year.

Guitar Hero: Warriors of Rock is available now for Xbox 360, PS3 and Wii, and Rock Band 3 [http://www.amazon.com/Rock-Band-3-Playstation/dp/B003RS8I92/ref=sr_1_1?s=videogames&ie=UTF8&qid=1288025439&sr=1-1] comes out for the same platforms plus the DS on October 26th in North America, October 28th in Australia, and October 29th in Europe.

Source: MCV [http://www.mcvuk.com/news/41485/Activision-should-acquire-Rock-Band]


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[Onyx Oblivion]

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Rock Band is still good, because it has the original GH devs...Guitar Hero has gone to shit.

Don't left Acti kill two franchises. They'd whore out GH.

Rock Band has much more varied DLC, too...It also makes songs importable between games. It has 4 spinoffs, that were all solid. LEGO Rock Band for the kids. Beatles Rock Band...for all the Beatles fans. And Green Day Rock Band. And Rock Band Unplugged for PSP...which played...oddly.

 

[the_pleasure_is_mine]

The only thing that's really killed it is the whole release an expansion every few months thing...

Just go back to 2 year dev cycles with significant changes each time.

 

[Woodsey]

Well maybe if they didn't pillage, loot and rape (Yo-ho me hearties!) every franchise yearly - not including extortionately priced DLC - they'd still have the chance to be on top.

 

[Jack and Calumon]

How about they don't? Guitar Hero is dwindling, so rather than milk the last droplets out of the cow, we feed it lots of grass, give it some time, then, when it's Udder is fit to burst, we begin to milk it a bit.

Then we eat beef.

Calumon: Ummm... I don't understand this. I agree with Jack? Maybe? I like milk too!

 

[LawlessSquirrel]

Funny, they seemed so proud at how fast they could put out games compared to Rock Band, and now it's killing them.

No loss, they peaked at their first attempt with Guitar Hero 3, everything beyond that just paled in comparison, and was always at least two steps behind Rock Band innovation-wise. 'Quality is greater than Quantity' does not seem to be a concept they've been able to grasp.

 

[Eternal_Lament]

I would find it hard to believe that the devs for Rock Band (the original devs behind Guitar Hero) would work or combine efforts with the publishing company that they left. Besides, since this is Acttivison, they'll probably run the current ddevs for guitar hero into the ground, and then switch to another dev team that they own.

 

[Dexiro]

Rock Band actually tries to innovate, and is 100x better polished.

Activision have already ruined Guitar Hero, wish they'd just keep to themselves.

 

[DVS Storm]

Well Activision had it coming. They just shipped the same game with different songs like 4 times. Rock band has improved all the time and Harmonix has understood the importance of good DLC. I don't like the idea of this team-up. Activision should just take their time and make a good game with good chartings for a change(I mean seriously their chartings suck. I know it's a game but I would like to play something that even reminds the song).

 

[mjc0961]

It's not wizardry or eldritch arts that make the Rock Band games score higher than the Guitar Hero games, it's that Harmonix is taking its time and isn't firing them out at a rate of at least one a year.

Harmonix is absolutely crapping out games at least once a year.

2007 - Rock Band
2008 - Rock Band 2
2009 - Lego Rock Band, The Beatles Rock Band, Rock Band Unplugged, Rock Band Mobile, Rock Band iOS
2010 - Green Day Rock Band, Rock Band 3

That's some pretty solid milking right there. Not as bad as Guitar Hero obviously but still pretty solid milking.

And anyway, Rock Band will be in the same place as Guitar Hero pretty soon. There's only so much you can do with a giant quick time event as your only gameplay mechanic. Rock Band 3's silly "we can teach you to play for realz!" gimmick is only going to prolong the inevitable.

 

[Cyrax987]

I do enjoy Rock Band a lot better and I don't want to see Activision acquiring it. Seriously its doing great on it own with only three real games and two spin offs for The Beatles and Green Day thats pretty damn good so far.

 

[Samwise137]

I figured it was going to come down to whomever added real-guitar capability to their game who would eventually take this race. Still doesn't make me feel like playing it regularly though.

 

[LawlessSquirrel]

Funny, they seemed so proud at how fast they could put out games compared to Rock Band, and now it's killing them.

No loss, they peaked at their first attempt with Guitar Hero 3, everything beyond that just paled in comparison, and was always at least two steps behind Rock Band innovation-wise. 'Quality is greater than Quantity' does not seem to be a concept they've been able to grasp.

Agreed. My copy of Rock Band 2 has 200+ songs on it now...I think if Guitar Hero had concentrated more on DLC rather than investing a bunch of money into creating more games in the series, they would have made a lot more money.

As it stands, Rock Band has a TON of good DLC, and Guitar Hero has...No Doubt.

Heh, I think Rock Band has No Doubt too. Kinda amusing that Rock Band still has Guitar Hero beat for song variety, despite the huge difference in released games. All the better that you can pick and choose from the 700+ songs instead of being stuck with a bunch you have to pay for to get what you want.

No Rock Band 2 here yet, sadly. Is the only area where Guitar Hero can be dominating...it's easier to pay for a game that you can get than one you can't. Still, fingers crossed Rock Band 3 makes it down here. The Pro Instruments are example enough of how one series has evolved while the other has fallen behind.

 

[cononking]

It's not wizardry or eldritch arts that make the Rock Band games score higher than the Guitar Hero games, it's that Harmonix is taking its time and isn't firing them out at a rate of at least one a year.

Harmonix is absolutely crapping out games at least once a year.

2007 - Rock Band
2008 - Rock Band 2
2009 - Lego Rock Band, The Beatles Rock Band, Rock Band Unplugged, Rock Band Mobile, Rock Band iOS
2010 - Green Day Rock Band, Rock Band 3

That's some pretty solid milking right there. Not as bad as Guitar Hero obviously but still pretty solid milking.

And anyway, Rock Band will be in the same place as Guitar Hero pretty soon. There's only so much you can do with a giant quick time event as your only gameplay mechanic. Rock Band 3's silly "we can teach you to play for realz!" gimmick is only going to prolong the inevitable.

That's basically it right there. Both sides are cranking out the games, but what it really boils down to is the DLC. Rock Band is streaks ahead of GH on that front. And that's the only reason why I have abandoned GH for RB.

 

[Aiddon_v1legacy]

I very much doubt Harmonix would work with Activision again as much as I doubt that EA would let go of their place as the game's distributor. Shooting a game every other month killed Guitar Hero and with the way the CoD franchise is going I doubt that series is going to last much longer as well.

 

[superline51]

If Activision tries to ruin Rock Band like they ruined Guitar Hero, I will burn their headquarters to the ground.

 

[Not G. Ivingname]

Yes, make your series better by buying the same series again from the same developers that you got it from AGAIN in hopes of making huge amounts of money by milking it dry AGAIN.

Does anybody else see the flaw in logic?