About Gov cost of "thing"

Siyano

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Since a recent announcement from the gov here about making a new bridge connection in some city and with a cost of about 7B$ (yes 7*10^9, 7,000,000,000) and will take about 10 years, I have been asking myself a lot how they even close to that cost?
Even being super loose in some of the cost, I barely get 1/3 of the cost here what I think:

100 people with 100k a year for 10 year, 100M$
100 machine at 5 M$ each, 500M$
Cost of material: 500M$
Cost of paperwork: 1M$
Maybe im missing some other cost, but even then, Im barely at 2B$ how can its cost nearly 3.5 more than that?

So I was wondering, am I in a dream world where Im putting way to low cost for some of those? am I crazy to think that its shouldnt cost that much?
what do you think
 

Gordon_4

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Since a recent announcement from the gov here about making a new bridge connection in some city and with a cost of about 7B$ (yes 7*10^9, 7,000,000,000) and will take about 10 years, I have been asking myself a lot how they even close to that cost?
Even being super loose in some of the cost, I barely get 1/3 of the cost here what I think:

100 people with 100k a year for 10 year, 100M$
100 machine at 5 M$ each, 500M$
Cost of material: 500M$
Cost of paperwork: 1M$
Maybe im missing some other cost, but even then, Im barely at 2B$ how can its cost nearly 3.5 more than that?

So I was wondering, am I in a dream world where Im putting way to low cost for some of those? am I crazy to think that its shouldnt cost that much?
what do you think
I think you are vastly underestimating the cost of materials and machinery running costs.
 

Drathnoxis

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The price to build something isn't at all related to what it would actually cost to build something. Two different concepts entirely, that you need to comprehend fully if you are going to work in government.

Actually, for a real answer you should ask @EvilRoy. This is actually his line of work, if I'm not mistaken.
 
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EvilRoy

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The price to build something isn't at all related to what it would actually cost to build something. Two different concepts entirely, that you need to comprehend fully if you are going to work in government.

Actually, for a real answer you should ask @EvilRoy. This is actually his line of work, if I'm not mistaken.
Uh, sort of yeah. People ask me this kind of stuff now and then and although I'm not much of an estimator I can shed some light on what is going on behind the scenes.

Without knowing which specific bridge this is or seeing concept art its tough for me to nail down the major factors but there are some usual suspects.

Off the hop I'm going to sadly tell you that there is not 1 million dollars of paperwork. My god, I wish that was the case. Its tough to nail down specifically what money goes to paperwork, but in general terms somewhere between 5-15% of the total budget will go to design, and then another 10% will go to management during construction, on the client side only. The contractor also dumps money hand over fist into admin but fundamentally in paperwork alone you're looking at burning roughly a conservative 10% of that 7 billion just on the owners side. This is all necessary, and more and more so the more complicated the bridge.

I dealt with a bridge that clocked in at just over 100 million and when we got all the paperwork together for design plus the first half of construction it filled my coworkers minivan. Just solid binders, and we had to stop because it was sitting pretty low on its shocks.

Otherwise in your estimate you have the right kind of idea, but your factors are off. You have people/equipment at about 2:1 to material. Its more like 4:1 to 5:1 - material is worthless compared to human time, often as a function of how it is worked with. Imagine a cubic meter of concrete. In order to place that concrete you need a small team to build a form, then guys to lay rebar, then guys to work the batch plant and deliver the concrete, then guys to place and finish the concrete, then you have to wait for it to cure. That's a small army for every bit of concrete - those are all different humans. Sure the cost of labour to cost of material goes more in your favour when you have larger quantities of material in play, but not as much as you would hope. Plus, machines are more expensive than you think. Large excavators can run tens of thousands a day, and you might need dozens of them to keep work going. Even things like rig mats - these are like steel frames filled with timber - are thousands each, and are brought to site by the hundred. Often you budget to destroy 10 rig mats a week if its during the wet season.

The last big thing you're missing is "site occupancy" or, more generally, opportunity cost. This is going to account for a huge chunk of the leftover money. Basically, whenever you do construction you crap up an area. Traffic slows down, people get in more accidents, the city fields more complaints, you have to work out legalities for land access (or even acquisition if you need to buy some lots up to be able to do this work), there are environmental tariffs, stores lose business, land values drop so taxes go down - its horrible really, building anything. In the advertised cost of a project a lot of time all this stuff will be included as a cost to the owner (local govt usually) because all this stuff will come back to the people holding the bag and somebody has to shoulder the cost eventually.
 

Kyrian007

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The last big thing you're missing is "site occupancy" or, more generally, opportunity cost. This is going to account for a huge chunk of the leftover money. Basically, whenever you do construction you crap up an area. Traffic slows down, people get in more accidents, the city fields more complaints, you have to work out legalities for land access (or even acquisition if you need to buy some lots up to be able to do this work), there are environmental tariffs, stores lose business, land values drop so taxes go down - its horrible really, building anything. In the advertised cost of a project a lot of time all this stuff will be included as a cost to the owner (local govt usually) because all this stuff will come back to the people holding the bag and somebody has to shoulder the cost eventually.
Yeah, site occupancy is incredibly important to consider. The city where I live had a fairly dangerous and badly designed highway junction cloverleaf... in one of the more bustling and highly developed commercial areas in town. The highways very much did need rebuilt, I shudder to think how many dead there would be in these days of smartphones and distracted driving if they hadn't been. But the city planners failed to adequately consider occupancy. The project dragged on for years, and the businesses were all driven off. Now, we have a much more safe highway junction there. But what used to be a fairly high value commercial center is now a barely open half empty mall no one goes to, several crumbling and empty box store buildings, and some fairly shady grey market mini mall locations. The opportunity cost of the project was losing almost all of the value that area had built up. Now, what was lost there quickly sprang up as a newer and nicer commercial center at the edge of town amidst a lot of newly constructed richer homes and businesses. But the old location had been in the middle of an older area of town that was still thriving... until that highway project pulled down the property values. Now there's a lot of vacant houses and blight. Kind of sad, I grew up hanging out in that area whenever I visited the city. That mall is where the arcade was that began my love of video games.

And that's one of the problems especially in a big bridge project. That junction replacement was basically a quarter of the "ring" of highways around our city. No matter how badly that particular area suffered, hundreds of thousands of people use that junction daily. In a bridge project, if you destroy the value of an area you are making a bridge to for easier access... you may be removing the need for better access to the area.