Treblaine said:
That's probably propaganda, especially considering the fallout from thermonuclear weapons is much much higher than from the bombs used on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. A global nuclear war would just release so much radioactive material that would spread and saturate everywhere. For example when bombardment is so wide that the fallout paths overlap each other, then you can't avoid them. It goes EVERYWHERE, like pollen.
I don't know about that. Yes, more powerful weapons will be used, but the world has seen an awful lot of above ground nuclear weapons tests, and although there have been quite a number of cancer cases cause, naturally occuring cancer is quite common. Apparently 1 in 5 US citizens will get skin cancer in their lifetime. Cancer caused by fallout might be a serious problem, but not that serious.
Though, yes, fallout will spread everywhere.
Treblaine said:
There is the point that multiple cities and critical points (like power stations and reservoirs) being bombarded by nuclear weapons adds up to the greater than the sum of its parts.
For example: if JUST Las Angeles suffered nuclear bombardment, resources of San Francisco, San Diego and Sacramento and so on would be able to take casualties, send help and treat the millions of people with burn and blast injuries. But if all the major cities west of the Rockies get atomic bombardment all at the same time then they can't lean on each other.
Oh, certainly, yes, it's not just the initial attacks, it's how well they cope with things afterwards.
Treblaine said:
If there was a nuclear war, you have similar chances of surviving as playing Russian roulette... but loading the gun with 5 bullets rather than just one. You'll probably die, and most of your family and friends as well.
Actually, no, I have a good chance of surviving. I don't happen to live near anywhere of strategic importance, in a minor nation in the middle of nowhere that happens to be the dominant military force in its local area. Mind you, the Soviets targeted the odd missile here, either under their "sharing the pain" doctrine, or because we hosted US military stuff (including a few nuclear tests...the US wanted to test VX on local soldiers, but fortunately this didn't happen. They did test mustard gas on them in WW2, though).
There'd be all sorts of terrible economic and political ramifications, of course, but I'm in a reasonably good place to ride things out. And as long as people survive here, or in some other isolated part of the world, the species survives.