Analyst Predicts Mouse Extinction In Five Years

[Royas]

Motion sensing controls will have to get a lot better before they can even compete with the mouse. I also have some doubt about the efficiency of face recognition systems and things like that. I imagine they work about like voice recognition does... pretty good, but not nearly reliable enough to replace anything else. To date, the only replacements for the mouse that work are really just mice with different detection methods (touchpads, trackballs, tablets) and I just don't see that changing anytime really soon. This guy is being sort of pie in the sky with his ideas.

 

[Kryten1029a]

Hey, do you remember back in 1975, when Xerox did away with paper in the office and companies like International Paper went belly up? No, that didn't happen did it? Seriously though, I'm inclined to think that futurists tend to make this crap up on the fly.

 

[Giftmacher]

Looks like a fairly typical lack of quality control on a BBC technology story to me. Seriously anyone with a tall tech tail to sell must be able to see BBC reporters coming, they print anything. I find that, at best, the beeb are usually late to report real stories and will swallow anything someone with a big name tells them without critique. It's a shame really as the individual reporters seem to know what they are doing, I can only guess that the Technology editor(s) doesn't (don't).

Anyway, the way I see it touch screen and gesture controls have a way to go before they replace the mouse. Interesting as both technologies are they simply aren't as user friendly and accurate as a mouse.

Sure touch screens will give you accuracy and direct access to whatever is being displayed but are they really a quantum leap compared to a mouse? These things have been around for a long time now, the fact they haven't become more prominent probably indicates just how little of a revolution they really are, besides who wants to work on screens with smeary finger prints all over them anyway?

As for Wii-motes and gesture controls, sure they are great fun in a lot of games but for every day use or every game title? I really can't see office workers, sitting close to a screen, using these things over a mouse. Nor can I see gamers using them in any title that requires pixel precision. At best there may be a place for a gesture control/touch screen combo but then why would you replace one perfectly adequate device with two? Moreover, wouldn't the combination be even more unwieldy? You'd need the space for gestures and yet have to remain close enough to touch a screen in order to get them most out of the controls.

N'ah on reflection I see both devices as useful but not really covering the same ground a mouse does. Even if I'm wrong at the very least 5 years is too short a time period for that level of change.

Gift.

 

[Lt. Sera]

Keyboard + wii controller, just try it and you know this guy is full of shit. As long as we use a keyboard, the most comfortable and instinctive way to use your right hand is via a mouse, or some improvement upon the basic mouse.

 

[Anton P. Nym]

As long as we use a keyboard, the most comfortable and instinctive way to use your right hand is via a mouse, or some improvement upon the basic mouse.

And before the advent of the mouse, everyone thought the same of cursor keys. "Some remote analog input doohickie with a tail ain't gonna replace the mighty up/down/left/right keys by making me wave my arm around on the desk. That's sissy-like." See how that turned out.

I use a touchscreen routinely... and I suspect that many of you do too, at least on a cellphone or music player or handheld game platform if not on computers yet. Beyond the Blackberry Pearl I don't see too many mice on smartphones despite the profusion of thumbboards; gesture and touch are taking over there, because it makes more sense in a small, handheld device.

The mouse isn't dead yet on the PC, but there are alternatives coming up and one of those may end up eating the mouse's lunch in the not-too-distant future.

-- Steve

 

[FireFox170]

I use a trackball mouse, so my hand isn't all over the desk and it's actually easier for me than using a traditional mouse, but I've never used a touch screen. I don't own any fancy cell phone or mp3 player, I don't own any mp3 player at all, it's a waste of money. For me touch screen or anything like it will never replace my trackball mouse.

 

[The_root_of_all_evil]

And before the advent of the mouse, everyone thought the same of cursor keys. "Some remote analog input doohickie with a tail ain't gonna replace the mighty up/down/left/right keys by making me wave my arm around on the desk. That's sissy-like." See how that turned out.

Warped analogy. At that point there wasn't anything other than a keyboard. The whole basis of WYSIWIG is that a mouse is the closest analogy to a finger you can have without it becoming confusing; and I'll bet my PC on the mouse still being around for another decade or three.

BTW, Steve, we still use Windows 95.

 

[SteinFaust]

why do i feel this will end up like the PowerGlove?

 

[countrysteaksauce]

Its only a matter of time before we get telepathic links to our computers.

 

[Anton P. Nym]

And before the advent of the mouse, everyone thought the same of cursor keys. "Some remote analog input doohickie with a tail ain't gonna replace the mighty up/down/left/right keys by making me wave my arm around on the desk. That's sissy-like." See how that turned out.

Warped analogy. At that point there wasn't anything other than a keyboard. The whole basis of WYSIWIG is that a mouse is the closest analogy to a finger you can have without it becoming confusing; and I'll bet my PC on the mouse still being around for another decade or three.

You missed the point of my analogy. People thought that cursor keys were the hottest because that's what they had and were used to... other interfaces beyond, say, lightpens and joysticks hadn't existed yet and the OSes of the time didn't natively support them anyway. There was plenty of resistance to the mouse in the '70s and early '80s because people didn't see the point.

Then GUI came out, and suddenly there was native support for an analog pointing device in mass-market platforms, and then people's ideas about computing (and gaming) began to change.

The same kind of change could be brewing today, given how successful the Wii has become. Anybody saying otherwise has to be careful if they don't want to sound like the old guard of computing pooh-poohing the mouse 30 years ago.

-- Steve

 

[thebobmaster_v1legacy]

why do i feel this will end up like the PowerGlove?

Because it's so bad. The Powerglove, anyway.

 

[The_root_of_all_evil]

Its only a matter of time before we get telepathic links to our computers.

"I'm sorry. I don't understand "whywontyoufuckingopenthatbloodywindowtoletmeshutthecomputerdown."

You missed the point of my analogy. People thought that cursor keys were the hottest because that's what they had and were used to... other interfaces beyond, say, lightpens and joysticks hadn't existed yet and the OSes of the time didn't natively support them anyway.

You missed mine. There were no other interfaces at that time beyond punched cards or toggles.

Anybody saying otherwise has to be careful if they don't want to sound like the old guard of computing pooh-poohing the mouse 30 years ago.

Because all change is necessarily good, isn't it? uhmmmmm...no.
Houston...Wii have a problem [http://www.wiihaveaproblem.com/]

There has to be a break between technology and unwanted thoghts/movements; which is why most voice based communications have "Push to Talk".

Any upgrade to the mouse would come with enough problems to make it worthless due to unwanted interaction. Try using V.R. etc. and then trying to react normally to something. It's almost impossible. The mouse/keyboard gives enough scope to replicate your movements through analogue/digital without encumbering you.

GUI has got about as far as it can possibly go (Seeing as we've not had any significant upgrades in 15 years of so apart from cordless and optical)

My touchscreen Palm Pilot simply can't withstand the day to day wear I put it through, but my keyboard/mouse can take 3-5 years of constant pounding.

 

[GothmogII]

And before the advent of the mouse, everyone thought the same of cursor keys. "Some remote analog input doohickie with a tail ain't gonna replace the mighty up/down/left/right keys by making me wave my arm around on the desk. That's sissy-like." See how that turned out.

Warped analogy. At that point there wasn't anything other than a keyboard. The whole basis of WYSIWIG is that a mouse is the closest analogy to a finger you can have without it becoming confusing; and I'll bet my PC on the mouse still being around for another decade or three.

You missed the point of my analogy. People thought that cursor keys were the hottest because that's what they had and were used to... other interfaces beyond, say, lightpens and joysticks hadn't existed yet and the OSes of the time didn't natively support them anyway. There was plenty of resistance to the mouse in the '70s and early '80s because people didn't see the point.

Then GUI came out, and suddenly there was native support for an analog pointing device in mass-market platforms, and then people's ideas about computing (and gaming) began to change.

The same kind of change could be brewing today, given how successful the Wii has become. Anybody saying otherwise has to be careful if they don't want to sound like the old guard of computing pooh-poohing the mouse 30 years ago.

-- Steve

But gesture technology just seems so...unweildy, but...who knows, maybe we'll get some kind of hybrid between it and touch screens, like those monitors in Minority Report. Now those looked like something fun to use.

 

[The_root_of_all_evil]

But gesture technology just seems so...unweildy, but...who knows, maybe we'll get some kind of hybrid between it and touch screens, like those monitors in Minority Report. Now those looked like something fun to use.

"aaaaaa....aaaaa....CHOOOO! Oops...did I just sentence that guy to death?"

 

[Thais]

...you're waggling a thingy mere inches from the screen, and may as well be touching it...

..Mind control: cutting edge technology that, again, when perfected, may someday do in both touchscreens and thingy-waggling (there's something I never thought I'd type), but even when that day comes, it'll need years for the price point to come down before it'll be a true competitor...

Okay...do I just have a hopelessly dirty mind, or is everyone else giggling idiotically when they get to this part of that comment?

 

[Unknower]

Got to say that analysts like to speak shit. Oh well, that's what they're paid for.

 

[Dommyboy]

This guy obviously doesn't know a lot about gaming. Touch screen gaming? Yeah it works, of course we don't have 4 grand lying around to pay for a touch screen.
And gaming with the keyboard pad is hell. By now I guess this guy is waving his penis at traffic and saying that Satan is in the body of Mel Gibson.

 

[shatnershaman]

This guy obviously doesn't know a lot about gaming. Touch screen gaming? Yeah it works, of course we don't have 4 grand lying around to pay for a touch screen.

There is the DS... but its not running crysis anytime soon.

 

[Giftmacher]

I use a touchscreen routinely... and I suspect that many of you do too, at least on a cellphone or music player or handheld game platform if not on computers yet. Beyond the Blackberry Pearl I don't see too many mice on smartphones despite the profusion of thumbboards; gesture and touch are taking over there, because it makes more sense in a small, handheld device.

See that's where touch screens make more sense though. Why would anyone carry around a peripheral as big as the object they want to use i.e. their phone? In that context the fact touch screens are common on small devices isn't a testament to their superiority over a mouse.

Furthermore, if the advent of a GUI made mice the must have peripheral what comparable innovation do you think will drive a shift to touch screen technology? I hear what you are saying, and not suggesting that change won't come but in five years? On what basis, where's the catalyst? Touch screens have been around for decades and yet they've not caught on in PC computing, something needs to happen before that changes.

Gift.

 

[Asehujiko]

This guy obviously doesn't know a lot about gaming. Touch screen gaming? Yeah it works, of course we don't have 4 grand lying around to pay for a touch screen.

There is the DS... but its not running crysis anytime soon.

Neither is it(or the wii for that matter) running any kind of fps antime soon because touchscreens/gesture sensors can't aim and sidescroll at the same time.