Hammeroj said:
Any reason to believe there's much more power left to exploit?
Sure, considering that professional game reviewes like Adam Sessler are saying things to the effect that Skyrim impressed us so much that it not only impressed us graphically, it impressed us that it was able to do it in this console generation. (granted Skyrim is NOT the best example of graphical prowess, but meh) The fact is that there are preconceived notions that develop over time and inventive people will find ways to work around limitations and surprise you. So if Sessler is surprised today, that means that they still have yet to plateau because as the saying goes, its amazing what you can get done when it has to be done. Also other examples like the graphical progression you see in Battlefield 3 for example over top of what weve seen in other bland FPS, or how a title like RAGE took 6 years of development in the new tech5 engine and graphically looks on par just about any other game with a quarter of that development cycle. Simply by utilizing an improved engine graphically it can still keep up with developmental trends started years later. Consider many development teams have JUST built new engines. Bethedsda has essentially utilized 2 new engines between creation and tech5. How many years worth of improvement will they be able to wring out of those new engines once they get them purring like a kitten?
Being a developer, you don't seem to realise just how much time developers spend downscaling and optimising the games already,
Please dont confuse things like down scaling and optimizing as soley representative of graphical processing. MANY instances of development resulting in these have more to do with the storage capacity of the delivering media than the processing power of the unit. How many times has a developer cut a texture budget simply because they did not want to eat the cost of adding an additional disc to the production costs? Sure some may be resource related but its certainly not the predominant problem, especially considering even the PC unoptimized version of BF3 can run on a 512mb GFX 8800.
Really the "need of a new generation" sounds more like a hybridization of the imaginary pissing contest that will forever plague PC gamers that behave like if you didnt drop at least 2 grand into your rig, it will explode if you try to run minesweeper.
I keep mentioning every time this dumb topic comes up - shaders, textures and draw distance haven't improved substantially for years, you know there's a problem.
Except there hasnt been a substantial improvement on texture maps or draw distances in years on PC exclusive releases either. Compare 2007s witcher vs 2011s Witcher 2. Draw distance is equal, texture maps are larger but certainly not a great deal larger. About the only thing that has made a major improvement is superfluous shaders and with shaders you quickly get to a point of diminishing returns as what you can do with shaders is so insignificant and typically its just useless resource consumption anyway and other equally low yield effects.
And it probably ain't the coding, because developers are breaking their asses to make what little they have run on the current-gen consoles already.
So thats why when asked about new console generations the responses from developers is a pretty mixed bag with some begging for one, but others coming off pretty indifferent to the idea.
Thats another thing to consider. No two developers are at the same level of graphical development. In actuality very few developers are at the point where a new generation would be beneficial. Its predominantly only two different game types that are coming anywhere close to the ceiling, most of the rest are coming no where even close to that level of need of horsepower. Considering that the game types that are using the most graphical horsepower are also co-incidentally some of the most shallow and regurgitated game play experiences possible it illustrates that need for horsepower is more symptomatic of stagnation of the genre than reflective of the needs of the industry. Hearing a company that produces nothing but generic regurgitated brown shooter remix every year complain that they need more horsepower sounds more like they are saying "The only thing we know how to do to make our game better is to wow you with more "pretties" than suggesting what the industry as a whole needs. That is a sign of a greater problem and illustration on exactly where their development does NOT need to be.
You know what would be an infinitely better yardmarker of when we need a new console generation? When the Unreal 4 engine is officially announced with a release date (rather than the 2012 - 2018 floating around), because considering how many games will license the unreal engine it stands to reason that until the tools are ready for it, theres not a lot of reason to build a system that predates the software that will properly utilize the hardware.
Now I apologize to have to dissect quote, but there were so many points to touch on. Now I have said my peace on the matter. Granted we need a new console generation, but honestly we should not have the announcement for it until 2013, with the soonest the console being released being 14 or even possibly as late as 15. I honestly cannot fathom nor have I heard a single good reason why we need one sooner than that. You obviously disagree with that, and youve made it abundantly clear you hold a disproportionate amount of importance on graphical prowess and such is your prerogative but please kindly keep the veiled (as well as the not so veiled ) insults to yourself when the logic your putting forth is on even shakier ground than you claim mine to be.
Look, Im done. Ive said what I needed to. Your going to interpret what I have said in whatever way your going to and nothing I will say will change your mind on that because youve already made up your mind that your right. Such is your prerogative. I stand by what I said. We dont NEED another console generation any earlier than 2014. If you put undue importance on horsepower, more power to you, but that need is NOT representative of the needs of the industry as a whole and developers have infinitely more important things they need to work on, especially when perhaps the top selling game of 2011 boiled down to a copy pasta of last years installment and equaled out to a 5 hour campaign at best.