China: Really the Next Superpower?

[Baron Von Evil Satan]

So, we've been studying China in my Comparative Government class, and I've gotten to thinking: Is it possible for China to become an international superpower reasonably soon? Over all yes, it does look like they are stable enough, have a well enough established economy, and living conditions have been improving in cities drastically, but what about when you get down to it?

It seems to me that China can not decide weather or not it wants to be communist, or capitalist in it's economy. There is not an equal distribution of wealth, bonuses can now be earned, there is more privatized business in China than state run, and the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) is now starting to allow technocrats and capitalists into the party (though not letting them rise very far.

On a military scale China seems to be one of the most powerful in the world due to it's sheer size. However, that size can make it unorganized. Yes, China has size, but could it stand up to the U.S. armored forces? the U.K.'s? Western/central Europe? Yes they have nuclear weapons, but how willing would they be to use them if war erupted? In a modern world, anyone who used a nuke would immediately be demonized for the untold ammounts of destruction that it would cause, and it's after effects for years to come. (They still find traces of radiation in the soil where the first nuclear bomb was tested.

Social cleavages, and general unrest among the populous in China often separate the country. The Chinese government fears it's people because they have a voice that can now be heard throughout the world with the internet and cell phone usage. Whenever a riot, political demonstration, or protest begins, the first thing the government does is block internet use and cell phone coverage so that people cannot see what is really happening, only what the Chinese government wants to play up to make the means that they use to keep the voices of the masses silent justifiable. ( Here is an article written about these kinds of situations: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/08/opinion/08moses.html ). If China's government cannot keep the people of their own country happy, are they really ready to have the world even more dependent on them politically?

 

[Spectrum_Prez]

I think to a certain extent you have to consider what you mean by superpower. If you mean a superpower that will challenge the United States for hegemony in all regions and in all sectors, then no, I don't see it happening soon. If you mean a superpower that will balance the US in the Asia-Pacific region and which will use its political and economic clout in limited respects, then yes, its entirely possible.

The main reason why China will not be able to challenge the US as a hegemon is because it lacks an exportable political ideology through which it make the most of its material resources. We now live in an age where hegemony is largely constituted through ideology, economics and political willpower as much as military force, and given, as you noted, the paralyzing effect of nuclear weapons a return to direct military confrontation between two great powers doesn't seem very likely. In terms of ideology, the Chinese have long ago abandoned the idea of exporting communism, and in fact the current political forces that shape China's domestic and foreign policies are to a certain extent imported. Domestically, it has learned from the successes of the Asian Tiger economies and hopes it can replicate their successes on a larger scale. In foreign affairs, it largely plays according to the rules set by the US and its allies in the economic sphere while being very conservative within International Law and when participating in organizations such as the UN. The USSR was a threat to US hegemony precisely because it had an exportable revolutionary ideology, but China doesn't have this dimension of threat anymore and therefore will find it difficult to challenge the predominant liberal economic order which institutionalizes American power.

As far as China becoming a superpower which can compete and balance the US without directly challenging it, there are many signs that it has the potential for achieving such a goal. I lived in China for 7 years and know intimately what the social conditions are at least in major cities. Many Chinese people are content with the government and are enjoying the fruits of recent economic prosperity and social mobility, but more importantly, the social cage which decades of communism imposed upon individuals has been enlarged somewhat so as to decrease the sense of oppressiveness. There are many problems that exist, but they are managed by the government very well through censorship, propaganda and localized crackdowns. Young Chinese students don't know what the Tian'anmen Massacre is or even that there existed such an event. They don't study politics or modern history in a meaningful way either. In the long run, it seems more likely that liberalization will have to come from the top either through a program put together by progressives or through a maverick Gorbachev like figure.

In terms of economics, the party is aware of the need for internal investment and a scaling back of the export-based sectors, if only because it needs to find a way to develop the inland regions. They are putting lots of money into innovation (a lot of which gets sucked up through corruption) and acquiring renewable resources, so I wouldn't worry about a sudden economic collapse. At the end of the day, it must be remembered that the capitalist foam ultimately sits upon an authoritarian bedrock and the communist party still pulls the strings of major economic indicators. They will do everything within their power to continue economic growth that is sustainable and so far they have proven quite adept at managing this growth.

With relation to border issues and international conflicts, China does still have a lot of room to grow, but it is also in a position to influence events if it so wishes. The central problem, of course, is that it favours a conception of state sovereignty that is traditionally Western but which has gone out of fashion in Europe and the US. It cannot endorse interventionism because of its own ethnic insecurities, and it can't become 'friends' with the US because of the Taiwan issue. The government is also quite nationalistic in its understanding of international law, rejecting strong claims to human rights. I think China will only be able to throw its weight around when it deals with its internal contradictions, so this aspect of superpower status will probably come last. But the US knows it can't resolve the N. Korean problem, for instance, or find a solution to the Kashmir conflict or the Iranian nukes without a basic understanding with the Chinese. China has a lot of clout, but so far they have been largely reactionary and constantly favouring the status quo, reluctant to use the power they have. With time, this might change, but the domestic side will probably have to come first.

 

[The Warden]

I think Gold is only so valuable because the entire world says so.
Once everyone but one nation don't give two shits it's practically worthless.

 

[Ed130 The Vanguard]

China has most of the ingredients to become THE global superpower, powerhouse of the world economy, driving innovation etc. But on other fronts it still needs lots of effort, mainly corruption and accountability. These limiting factors combined with its political system, (Communism still hasn't shaken off the bogyman factor in western media) means that its credibility and image in the public eye are often tarnished. And image now is everything.

 

[Hunde Des Krieg]

I would say the already are, they just haven't grasped ahold of it yet

 

[Rolling Thunder]

China has most of the ingredients to become THE global superpower, powerhouse of the world economy, driving innovation etc. But on other fronts it still needs lots of effort, mainly corruption and accountability. These limiting factors combined with its political system, (Communism still hasn't shaken off the bogyman factor in western media) means that its credibility and image in the public eye are often tarnished. And image now is everything.

It dosen't have the money, dosen't have the respect, it's dependant on it's ability to export, and it's army is a laughable mess of thugs and conscripts.

 

[JoshGod]

a friend told me of his plan for world domination
become the PM
join china start invading
secret indian alliance
get them to kill eachother
swoop in and take the world.

(because its between india and china for next superpower!)
ill admit it has flaws but godamit i cant wait!

 

[inpachi]

Dont Cut out the U.S yet.. I mean we haven't stopped being the super power yet.. I mean we are laughed at by pretty much every other country but that's only because they all know who is wearing the crown.. Albeit just barely wearing it.. I mean if things continue in the direction there headed we will lose our crown.. I mean the U.S has lost most of its image.. We are horribly in debt.. And haven't has a good leader in forever.. But we still have ambitions albeit there mostly clouded by ignorant ideas but there still ambitions damnit! I still have hope for this country.. It hasn't hit the bottom yet there's still a chance for it to pull itself up by its bootstraps!

 

[ottenni]

All the input that i can put in is that of my International Politics teacher. No and they never will. Why? Well from what i could gather the greatest problem is in the huge population. Controlling crime, corruption and poverty/disease is such a huge task that they will never be able to reach that level. Though he did state that he believes it will become the most powerful economy just not militarily and it will lack significant soft power, meaning other governments and populations are not likely to trust China when it says things. Tibet and Tienanmen have done horrible things for it's reputation, i mean if a journalist said he witnessed Chinese troops massacre 16,000 children and the Chinese government denied it who would you believe?

 

[Nmil-ek]

You never know Europe could finaly pull it's shit together and decide to work togethe... Ahahahah or hell freezes over.

 

[Soxafloppin]

Yea, there army is ridiculously huge.