Doomsday Clock Moved Away From Utter Destruction
- Thread starter Greg Tito
- Start date
I think the whole idea has become far too political in the modern sense.
I am also thinking that the problem we're facing right now is ironically linked to the idea of nuclear weapons becoming obselete. Right now it's all about guidance technology and the abillity to intercept them. The US and China who are the two big opposed forces right now have both demonstrated some abillity to deal with long range missles. China apparently blinded some of our military "spy" satellites using some kind of ground based laser system as they passed over, making it clear that they at least have the abillity to slow our abillity to fire satellite guided missles into their back yard. At the same time the US has invoked the wrath of Russia by using defensive anti-missle technologies in The Middle East and such which violate our treaties with them, not to mention a lot of things that the NAVY and Air Force claimed about the abillity to intercept incoming missles in massive numbers. I remember this point being made in connection to why Star Wars would be a stupid project to resume in connection to nuclear rogue nations, since apparently our current forces can actually do better than even that hypothetical system could have done at it's reported best. All of this enraging Russia more, causing them to apparently claim they have their own (unrevealed) systems now, and also in part fueling the tension over the prescence of a defensive missle interception base in Poland.
It's like this, MAD goes away and all of a sudden nothing is keeping the peace. It all goes conventional again. Everyone with dreams of empire, cultural supremacy, or simply a perceived (or genuine) need for more living space is now capable of pursueing that goal if they have a big enough army. The big thing preventing China from projecting itself on that level despite it's clearly stated desires has always been lack of a sufficient navy to transport their massive population and army overseas... but ummm... they are building that. What's more they have shown that things like the "Yuan" class Submarine are pretty formidible and could quite possibly do a lot to protect their ships during a war, meaning we couldn't just sink all their troops en-route. What's more we lost a lot of military technology to them due to Bill Clinton (incompetance or betrayal is still debated) nations like the US and Britan who are fearsome due to their technology more than sheer population might find themselves with a bit less of an edge than we would like to have if it comes down to a throwdown, even if we could restrain enough of our own morality to use it.
So basically I think the Doomsday clock is kind of an odd idea today. It made more sense when it was conceived and Nuclear annihilation seemed more likely. Since the end of the cold war it seems that globally the removal of such a threat right now would actually cause more problems and just as likely lead to armageddon or the end of the world as a nuclear exchange.
I am also thinking that the problem we're facing right now is ironically linked to the idea of nuclear weapons becoming obselete. Right now it's all about guidance technology and the abillity to intercept them. The US and China who are the two big opposed forces right now have both demonstrated some abillity to deal with long range missles. China apparently blinded some of our military "spy" satellites using some kind of ground based laser system as they passed over, making it clear that they at least have the abillity to slow our abillity to fire satellite guided missles into their back yard. At the same time the US has invoked the wrath of Russia by using defensive anti-missle technologies in The Middle East and such which violate our treaties with them, not to mention a lot of things that the NAVY and Air Force claimed about the abillity to intercept incoming missles in massive numbers. I remember this point being made in connection to why Star Wars would be a stupid project to resume in connection to nuclear rogue nations, since apparently our current forces can actually do better than even that hypothetical system could have done at it's reported best. All of this enraging Russia more, causing them to apparently claim they have their own (unrevealed) systems now, and also in part fueling the tension over the prescence of a defensive missle interception base in Poland.
It's like this, MAD goes away and all of a sudden nothing is keeping the peace. It all goes conventional again. Everyone with dreams of empire, cultural supremacy, or simply a perceived (or genuine) need for more living space is now capable of pursueing that goal if they have a big enough army. The big thing preventing China from projecting itself on that level despite it's clearly stated desires has always been lack of a sufficient navy to transport their massive population and army overseas... but ummm... they are building that. What's more they have shown that things like the "Yuan" class Submarine are pretty formidible and could quite possibly do a lot to protect their ships during a war, meaning we couldn't just sink all their troops en-route. What's more we lost a lot of military technology to them due to Bill Clinton (incompetance or betrayal is still debated) nations like the US and Britan who are fearsome due to their technology more than sheer population might find themselves with a bit less of an edge than we would like to have if it comes down to a throwdown, even if we could restrain enough of our own morality to use it.
So basically I think the Doomsday clock is kind of an odd idea today. It made more sense when it was conceived and Nuclear annihilation seemed more likely. Since the end of the cold war it seems that globally the removal of such a threat right now would actually cause more problems and just as likely lead to armageddon or the end of the world as a nuclear exchange.
Cute but as I was sort of pointing out in my previous message, it's dated. Not as badly dated as the whole "Doomsday Clock" idea but no longer quite the biting commentary on modern society that it once was, even if a lot of it has aged well, and the story remains very good especially as a period piece.benbenthegamerman said:
It's also noteworthy that the story was written totally without modern perspective. See when that was written The Middle East was seen as more of a nuisance. Terrorism was bad, but not something anyone saw as being the threat that 9/11 revealed it could be. Nobody had even conceived of an attack like that in any realistic fashion.
Thus even when looking at Ozymandia's plan, consider that it was conceived without considering dealing with totally closed religious fanatics. The whole "false alien invasion" gimmick had some merits when dealing with two major powers both of whom were guided by reason, but religious zealots are something else entirely. Looking at the current world "problems" right now people are more acutely aware of the problems The Middle East poses, to which there are no easy solutions. If they were to see something like his plan they would be celebrating the demise of Manhattan, viewing the alien as a sign from Allah, and/or simply feeling that their god will protect them. The mentality is just so differant that they wouldn't be exactly running to embrace their enemies to form a unity due to a common threat. In fact as a people they are closed off and would probably wind up defining things among themselves very differantly than Ozy intended.
That's not knocking them really, or the story, just pointing out that as well written as it was, it didn't account for everything, because it was dealing with the dangers people saw as of "The Cold War" where everything was The USA Vs. The USSR. China wasn't even a factor because they were not considered anything even remotely akin to a Super Power, and honestly with some elements of their culture I'm not sure how they would react, or what spin the goverment would put on the thing as well. They see things differantly from the way the Russians did. This is to say nothing of India which is also a rising power that wasn't as big a deal then, and while not as problematic as Islam, your still dealing with a nation that has cities where monkeys are considered sacred and allowed to run free through the streets with right of way. India being one of those odd places in the world where you can go from having huge, modern cities and well educated people everywhere, to places that are based on spirituality more than reason that might even seem like they never left The Middle Ages. For that matter China is similar to that as well. Ozy was smart enough where he might have found a solution that would have dealt with these things if they were viewed as "factors" but the plan would nbot have been the one he ran with.
I don't know where those atomic scientists are getting their information, but China hasn't done jack shit to stop nuclear proliferation.
Wait does that mean that when the world is coming to an end and the bombs are falling some poor guy has to move the hands to midnight rather then be with his family? Sucks to be him.
I think the threat of nuclear annihilation is always present and always just one wrong step away. Weither we have 1 minute or 5 hours on this clock, one decision by a single man could turn the clock to midnight.
I think the threat of nuclear annihilation is always present and always just one wrong step away. Weither we have 1 minute or 5 hours on this clock, one decision by a single man could turn the clock to midnight.
Only in the naive realm of this clock can scientists decide that moving back in time is entirely possible.
well, the cloak was a lot cooler when it was a 5 minutes, mainly because "5 minutes to midnight" sounds like mission in call of duty 4. anyway, I believe we can celebrate, we have at least 5 minutes until we are all vaporized.
Over a dozen nobel prize winners huh?
apparently that title has went to hell.
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Look, I can't see how it moved back at all. North Korea and ESPECIALLY Iran are getting way to close to nuclear weapons for my comfort, and they haven't slowed down at all especially with these softy, pushover policies of our current administration.
Obama said himself that if we couldn't resolve it by New Years (2010) we would know for sure that we couldn't solve Iran's nuclear ambitions diplomatically.
Of course according to the empty suit himself Gitmo was supposed to close in September, unemployment wasn't supposed to go over 8%, the stimulus package was totally for stimulus, and supposed to create 500 thousand permanent new jobs, and the health care bill was supposed to be bipartisan and put on C-Span for everyone to see.
So far, Gitmo is open, the stimulus package created 12 thousand temporary jobs, unemployment is at 12%, and the health care bill was made behind closed doors and created totally by liberal hacks.
(^that was all to show who is really holding up Americas end of the deal with the UN to curb/stop nuclear proliferation, and is showing that this president isn't accomplishing jack shit) So lets hope hes WAY better at this than he is at everything else.
So someone else has picked up the ball and is barring Iran and N.Korea or these scientists are just blowing smoke up the worlds collective ass. Considering they shoved "climate change" in there and how were all holding hands trying to get stuff done and every talk/deal has gone tits up in under 72 hours I'm going with the 2nd choice.
apparently that title has went to hell.
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Look, I can't see how it moved back at all. North Korea and ESPECIALLY Iran are getting way to close to nuclear weapons for my comfort, and they haven't slowed down at all especially with these softy, pushover policies of our current administration.
Obama said himself that if we couldn't resolve it by New Years (2010) we would know for sure that we couldn't solve Iran's nuclear ambitions diplomatically.
Of course according to the empty suit himself Gitmo was supposed to close in September, unemployment wasn't supposed to go over 8%, the stimulus package was totally for stimulus, and supposed to create 500 thousand permanent new jobs, and the health care bill was supposed to be bipartisan and put on C-Span for everyone to see.
So far, Gitmo is open, the stimulus package created 12 thousand temporary jobs, unemployment is at 12%, and the health care bill was made behind closed doors and created totally by liberal hacks.
(^that was all to show who is really holding up Americas end of the deal with the UN to curb/stop nuclear proliferation, and is showing that this president isn't accomplishing jack shit) So lets hope hes WAY better at this than he is at everything else.
So someone else has picked up the ball and is barring Iran and N.Korea or these scientists are just blowing smoke up the worlds collective ass. Considering they shoved "climate change" in there and how were all holding hands trying to get stuff done and every talk/deal has gone tits up in under 72 hours I'm going with the 2nd choice.
Yes, I read about this in the Sydney Morning Herald. It's a good thing that we've shown some maturity as a species, and have caused these brilliant people to move the clock back.
Let's hope that one day, the non-proliferation movement is a success, and they can put away the clock for good.
Let's hope that one day, the non-proliferation movement is a success, and they can put away the clock for good.
Well, that would be because it is. The world has hundreds of thousands of nuclear weapons primed and ready. Even half of those would sterilise humanity if not wipe it off the map entirely. And at any time, all it takes is one to be shot off, and another to be sent in return.Simalacrum said:
It's about awareness.JWAN said:
