Election results discussion thread (and sadly the inevitable aftermath)

[Bedinsis]

Does the margin of victory matter?

 

[Houseman]

Weird. You'd think they'd just raise prices and not tell you, so you tip anyway. 0_0

I think they do that so that you can feel morally superior by being a patron of such a just and fair establishment.
It works on me.

 

[Revnak]

Does the margin of victory matter?

Lol, Trump’s calling for a coup. How would it not?

 

[Dwarvenhobble]

Based on the BBC map

Without Nevada due to it being a ~7,800 vote margin

Biden at 243
Including the Blue leaning
Wisconsin = 10
Arizona = 11
Biden = 264

Trump at 214
including leaning
Alaska = 3
Pennsylvania = 20
North Carolina = 15
Georgia = 16
Trump = 268

Everyone ready for the whiplash as Trump claims all the votes in Nevada haven't been properly counted.

Nevada scheduled to release mail in ballots count on Thursday before the election.

I also don’t understand why mail in ballots couldn’t be counted before in person. That did make sense to me

At a guess if numbers get out it could influence voting either people being pushed to vote seeing the opposition surging or feel they don't need to their least hated candidate is comfortably in the lead.

 

[Johnny Novgorod]

Does the margin of victory matter?

Not for the presidency.

 

[stroopwafel]

Oh man it's hanging by a thread. Still an unbelievable accomplishment of Trump and he has way more supporters than anyone could have ever imagined.

 

[meiam]

Does the margin of victory matter?

For recount yes, most state have law that state that if the margin is above a certain %, no recount is allowed.

 

[Mister Mumbler]

Well, I'm sure everyone is tired of hearing it, but fuck it I voted for the clown:

Sure is nice that the candidate that was rammed through because he was the more "electable" candidate is now in an election with a president who will probably go down as the least liked president in history and it will end in a photo finish.

EDIT: The clown dressed in blue, not red.

 

[Trunkage]

Oh man it's hanging by a thread. Still an unbelievable accomplishment of Trump and he has way more supporters than anyone could have ever imagined.

I know that a lot of people voted for Biden because he’s not Trump. But I doubted it would have been this many before yesterday

 

[Hades]

Oh man it's hanging by a thread. Still an unbelievable accomplishment of Trump and he has way more supporters than anyone could have ever imagined.

Which means that whoever wins the election America it self will have hopelessly lost this election.

 

[BrawlMan]

@BrawlMan Remember when I said to be ready to get the hell out of Michigan? Be ready to get the hell out of Michigan. For your own sake.

Regardless of what happens, I'm not going anywhere. I got a lot of family in Michigan and a decent paying job. Where the fuck am I gonna go? No one answer that. Whatever is going on right now, I stay and fight. Don't bother responding back. No one else respond to me on this specific topic either. I don't want to hear anything right now.

 

[Hades]

Well, I'm sure everyone is tired of hearing it, but fuck it I voted for the clown:

Sure is nice that the candidate that was rammed through because he was the more "electable" candidate is now in an election with a president who will probably go down as the least liked president in history and it will end in a photo finish.

EDIT: The clown dressed in blue, not red.

That's one way of looking at it. Another way of looking at it is that America is in dire need of electoral reform.

Even with the votes as they are this should not be a photo finish. The Democrats have won the popular vote eight times and Biden allegedly has more votes cast for him then any other presidential candidate in history. That all these numbers translate to either complete defeat or victory by the smallest numbers imaginable reflects more on the American system than on Biden.

 

[Revnak]

Regradless of what happens, I'm not going anywhere. I got a lot of family in Michigan and a decent paying job. Where the fuck, am I gonnna do? No one answer that. Whatever is going on right now, I stay fight. Don't bother responding back.

That’s a stance.

 

[Revnak]

That's one way of looking at it. Another way of looking at it is that America is in dire need of electoral reform.

Even with the votes as they are this should not be a photo finish. The Democrats have won the popular vote eight times and Biden allegedly has more votes cast for him then any other presidential candidate in history. That all these numbers translate to either complete defeat or victory by the smallest numbers imaginable reflects more on the American system than on Biden.

More Democratic presidents with Republican senates likely isn’t going to fix anything. It’s more than the presidency, it’s all of it.

 

[Avnger]

Analysis on all remaining states from 538's Nate Silver:

Here’s where the presidential race stands from most likely Trump win to least likely Trump win:

North Carolina. Trump leads by 1.4 points or about 77,000 votes, but mail ballots can arrive after Election Day in North Carolina, so perhaps 5 percent of the vote is still outstanding. The mail vote should be pretty blue in North Carolina, but is it enough to flip the state? Probably not, according to The Upshot’s needle, which gave Biden about a 15 percent chance in North Carolina before it was frozen. I’d call this one Likely Trump, although 15 percent chances aren’t zero, obviously!

Georgia. Trump leads by 78,000 votes without around 200,000 votes outstanding (there’s some uncertainty over the exact number). That gap seems like a tall order for Biden to close, but the remaining vote is expected to be very blue: mail votes from blue counties plus some Election Day votes from predominantly Black precincts in blue counties. The Upshot’s needle actually had Biden slightly favored to pull it off as of last night. We’ll know more soon. Let’s say Toss-up, but you could force me into Lean Biden if you told me I had to make a pick.

Pennsylvania. As expected, far more uncounted votes here than elsewhere, mostly mail votes that should be quite Democratic-leaning, though. There are too many outstanding ballots for us to be in the endgame where we can game out exact scenarios, but in counties that have completed reporting, Biden looks to be hitting the targets he needs. Even with the Trump campaign filing a number of lawsuits, the margin is tightening quickly enough that I think this belongs in Lean Biden.

Arizona. We may need to do a longer post on Arizona later. What’s left to count is mostly mail votes that were returned late in the process — on Monday or Tuesday. There’s some ambiguity about how many ballots this actually is; Edison Research seems to think around 450,000. If so, Trump would need to win those votes by 21 points to overtake Biden’s current 93,000-vote lead. They’re distributed fairly evenly throughout the state.

Wait — outstanding mail votes? Shouldn’t those be good for Biden, as they are in other states? Well, not necessarily, because Republicans have a fairly strong mail voting program in Arizona and — this is the key part — the mail ballots that were returned later in the process (the ones yet to be counted) were significantly redder than the ones that came in earlier on, as Democrats sent their votes in early. For instance, the party registration breakdown of the votes that came in Monday and Tuesday was: 23 percent Democratic, 44 percent Republican, and 33 percent independent or other parties. That is to say, a 21-point GOP edge, which would put Trump on track to tie things up.

But … here’s the bad news for Trump. Party registration may be a misleading indicator in Arizona. The state has a lot of ancestral Republicans who have now turned into swing voters. Biden also had a big lead among independents in polls. And earlier batches of mail ballots were considerably stronger for Biden than party registration alone would suggest. So probably these ballots are going to come in more for Trump than for Biden, but not as strongly as he needs.

There’s also the fact that two other news organizations, the Associated Press and Fox News, have called the state for Biden. I’d assume they’ve looked into this more than I have, so that shifts my priors a bit, but you never know and you do get incorrect calls occasionally. Overall, I’d say this is Likely Biden, but I don’t think the state should have been called yet.

Nevada. This one’s a bit more straightforward. Biden leads by only 0.6 percent, or about 7,500 votes. But what’s remaining should be pretty good for him. It’s all mail-in ballots that were either received late in the process or that are still coming in — in Nevada, mail ballots can be received by Nov. 10 provided they’re postmarked by Election Day. The mail ballots were quite blue in Nevada by party registration, much more so than in Arizona, including votes that arrived relatively late in the process. Likely Biden.

Wisconsin. No known votes left to be counted. The Trump campaign says it will seek a recount, but recounts rarely change results, and certainly not with something on the magnitude of Biden’s 20,000-vote lead. Biden is the “apparent winner,” per ABC News.

 

[Agema]

Trump looks like he's slipping in both PA and GA; he's still got daunting leads in both but so far Biden's been making the numbers he needs to overhaul the deficit.

 

[Dwarvenhobble]

Does the margin of victory matter?

sort of.

I'd imagine it's more bragging rights and perceived mandate.

Here this explains some of it.

The closer the race the more bitter it can get in the future and the less either side will compromise or agree to work with others.

How Hatred Came To Dominate American Politics

To anyone following American politics, it’s not exactly news that Democrats and Republicans don’t like each other. Take what happened in the presidential debate…

fivethirtyeight.com

Oh man it's hanging by a thread. Still an unbelievable accomplishment of Trump and he has way more supporters than anyone could have ever imagined.

It's almost like some people saw this coming and were telling others to not believe the polls claiming this was an easy Biden win or a Blue Landslide............

 

[Revnak]

Trump looks like he's slipping in both PA and GA; he's still got daunting leads in both but so far Biden's been making the numbers he needs to overhaul the deficit.

Democrats have to get Georgia and NC if they want a Senate majority. If Biden doesn’t win both of those, he’s arguably still fucked.

 

[Agema]

Democrats have to get Georgia and NC if they want a Senate majority. If Biden doesn’t win both of those, he’s arguably still fucked.

For two years, at least.

 

[Revnak]

For two years, at least.

If there’s an economic crisis and months of unrest, expect the worst red midterms imaginable in 2022.