Fallout: Not Like a Real-Life Nuclear Holocaust

[mjc0961]

Dear Dr. Michio Kaku,

NO SHIT.

Love, mjc

 

[Danzaivar]

Didn't they outright say at one point Fallout is "If a nuclear holocaust happened and the world ran on 1950's scifi logic?"

 

[Therumancer]

I have mixed opinions on what he's saying. I think a lot of it depends on what kind of nuclear technology was used. A lot of people think of all nukes being like the ones we tested publically, or dropped on Japan. The thing is that nuclear technology has not remained static after that point. People tend to forget how many nuclear tests are done underground and in isolated locations by various nations, both secretly and outed.

The truth is that today's nukes can acheive a variety of effects. What's more in a truel "World War III" scenario, nukes are not the only weapons that are going to be brought into play, rather they are going to be used alongside chemical and biological weapons, as well as things like the infamous Neutron Bomb.

A lot of it also depends on interception technology which people tend to forget about. ICBMs are on the verge of becoming obselete. The US has freaked out Russia by demonstratng some of it's tech which violates treaties with the USSR, and China has been using ground based lasers to blind satellites which means that they could use it to stop (or seriously hamper) ICBM strikes which require targeting with satellites and computers, sure there are other ways to target but none that are "automated" in the World War III sense. (and if you don't believe me on the china thing, do a search for the key words China, Satellite, and Lasers).

The scenario in Fallout becomes a bit more plausible when you consider that our technology is a bit more advanced than the Romans, especially our record keeping. We aren't going to have a lot of barbarians running around burning books 15 seconds after the war, and people aren't going to degenerate that quickly. What's more the Fallout games take place in the US where for the moment we have a technological edge, and are liable to fare the best out of anyone in the world, barring some kind of "survival by omission" like what happemed with Africa in Heinlan's "Farnham's Freehold". Indeed by some estimates if the US lost all allies and engaged in an all out war we'd have between a 20-40% chance of surviving relatively intact (though with a lot of damage), on the other hand the rest of the world would have a 0% chance of survival because we have enough firepower to kill everyone on earth with WMD 10x over. In a real scenario however the US would have allies, and a lot of allied nations who weren't stupid would have defensive bases like the one Russia threatned to nuke Poland over which would give them abit more coverage.

The point being that the "OMG, nukes hit the ground and kick radiactive dirt into the air killing everyone!" scenario of past decades isn't quite accurate any more. The nuclear nations with weapons that crude are also among the least likely to ever be able to successfully hit anything either due to lack of delivery systems, or simple interception. A nation with a half a dozen nuclear warheads or whatever isn't exactly going to saturate a defense grid.

In short he'd need to provide more information IMO, I confess to not being an expert, but this seems a lot like he's using the same assumption as movies like "Wargames" without taking progress into account. Indeed one of the big fears for a lot of people today is that nuclear weapons are going to become entirely obselete due to defensive systems making delivery almost impossible. That would end the nuclear umbrella ensuring world peace (no more MAD) and bring us back to an age of conventional warfare... and when you look at the amount of conventional forces nations like Russia have stockpiled, and China is building up (complete with boats to deliver them) while nations like the US are downsizing and increasingly putting their faith in technologies that might be going in the wrong direction... well things could be getting interesting.

In the case of Fallout, this is also a world where there was an alternate history. We have powered armor, personal energy weapons, giant robots, and cars that were apparently running on nuclear generators by the lore. Who knows what kind of defensive systems were in place, or what kind of payload those nukes were actually carrying, or even what the intent of the people firing the nukes was. Did they hit the ground to try and stir up a lot of radioactive fallout (like the name of the game), or did they mostly airburst?

Given that the two superpowers were the US and China, it's not surprising that areas like DC would have survived, because they would probably have had some of the highest concentrations of defense since this war was a "slow burn" one instead of one that went nuclear immediatly. It started with conventional warfare, and got worse.


Just a lot of rambling thoughts, the bottom line is that I think Fallout is a bit more plausible than he gives it credit for, especially seeing as we're dealing with a science fiction universe where while a lot of things are "retro" they also have technology that is far more advanced than anyting we have in reality.

 

[shadow741]

Well naw shit sherlock, of course it wouldn't be like a real nuclear post-apocalypse.

 

[Zer_]

Well, gee whiz. You mean to say that the giant scorpions, two headed cattle, fire breathing insects, and mutated giants aren't realistic?

None of those things were directly addressed. It had more to do with the possibility of mutations, and having a "wasteland" style environment than anything else. Congratulations on comprehension though.

 

[Zer_]

***Snip***

Besides the United States and Soviet Union, France and China are understood to have tested neutron or enhanced radiation bombs in the past, with France apparently leading the field with an early test of the technology in 1967 and an "actual" neutron bomb in 1980. The 1999 Cox Report indicates that China is able to produce neutron bombs, although no country is currently known to deploy them.

Also, Nuclear fallout does not depend on the type of warhead, it depends on the meteorological conditions of the area. Furthermore, having a detonation in or above water has different effects as well.

First we need to consider that a ground detonation results in a great deal of fallout, and in the case of war (where one country is trying to invade another) such detonations are tactically unsound. The only exception is when you are attempting to take out a fortified location such as Cheyenne Mountain.

During tests, scientists have also noted that blast injuries and thermal burns far outnumber the injuries caused due to radiation when dealing with nuclear blasts.

Also: Nuclear fallout from a power plant is significantly different than that caused by a warhead.

 

[Andronicus]

In the event of a nuclear holocaust, I hereby offer open invitations to all my gamer brethren in the rest of the world. Don't worry about bombs, I doubt anyone would want to blow up the largest source of Uranium on the planet [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium_mining_in_Australia]. Besides, we're a relatively low priority target on the international scale. Just remember to wipe your feet on the way in

 

[Metropocalypse]

***Snip***

Also: Nuclear fallout from a power plant is significantly different than that caused by a warhead.

Notably, the radiation hangs around for a LOT longer after a power plant leakage.

 

[kouriichi]

What? Has he been in a nuclear Holocaust?
I don't think he knows what one is truly like unless hes been in it first hand.

Computer Simulation. Also Common Sense. We have no idea how long these effects will last or what exactly will happen, but Common Sense helps us figure out it takes MILLIONS OF YEARS FOR ANY KIND OF MUTATION TO TAKE PLACE THAT DOES NOT KILL YOU IN A FEW MINUTES. Please don't take the caps as anger, I am just trying to stress the point. Computer Simulation + Common Sense = What MIGHT happen during a Nuclear Holocaust.

Just because I haven't been shot doesn't mean I don't think it hurts like hell. You don't have to experience everything to understand something.

Well no, i just mean, in general, he cant be right about everything.

Im not saying mutations alone. I mean the whole atmosphere. He says it would be alot worse then portaryed in Fallout, but thats only speculation. You can simulate all you want, but it doesnt mean your going to be 100% right.

The sims is technically a simulation. But that doesnt mean when theres a fire someones going to stand there screaming and pointing at it.

All im saying is, no matter how sure you are, things can always be different. If the population is going to be as low as he said it would be, then that would mean food would be much easyer to aquire and keep.

"A nuclear war is going to be much worse, so we're talking about perhaps civilization as we know it crumbling for perhaps millennia."
And we wouldent go back to the stoneage. I doubt every book, computer, and instruction manual on the planet would be destroyed. Civilization will regrow, and be back up and running within a few hundred years at the most. People get together, we would get electricity working ((protable generators or better)), contact other people, breed, and civilization is back on track, but with less traffic.
Sure, inbreeding is problem, but we would eventually get past it.
people really over dramatize the end of the world. Not every contry is going to be nuked. Not every civilization will die. Sure, 70% of the population could burn in the radiation, but that would still leave 30% to regrow and repopulate.

 

[kouriichi]

What? Has he been in a nuclear Holocaust?
I dont think he knows what one is truely like unless hes been in it first hand.

they say the fallout blocks out the sun and causes an ice age that kills animals and plants. our entire ecology will collapse and we will revert earth back to the time when only microscopic cells inhabited earth. scientists studied how nuclear weapons would affect the earth, and we know very well NOW what we are getting into. if ONE nuke drops we can say goodbye to ALL electronics for miles. if the world was nuked we would lose all electronic devices and it would be an never ending winter. look at old pseudo documentaries like this:

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2023790698427111488#

this is what we USED to believe happens, now we know it isn't just the "oh, just rebuild it" attitude from the past. now, however, we know that nuclear winter will happen. A lot of scientists research these things for a reason.

So every device, generator, powerplant, and dam ((which generates power)) would become completely inoperable? And every inch of the earth would wither and die?

I have more then a hard time beliving that to be true. Science has been wrong in the past. We THINK this will happen, but we wont be sure until it really does.

I belive more in the 2012 end of the world then the entire plant freezing solid and everything dieing from a few nukes.

^Edit^

 

[Asuka Soryu]

A game not being realistic? Alert the press!

 

[BobisOnlyBob]

But what about S.T.A.L.K.E.R.? though I doubt localized space time anomalies are very plausible...

STALKER is based on the film of the same name, and the book Roadside Picnic (which the film was based on anyway). Both of those are about a "Zone", but it's not caused by a nuclear explosion. Instead it's an event, implied to be an extremely brief visitation from an alien presence/power, but could just as easily be a supernatural occurrence or a weapons test gone wrong, etc.

The fact they used Chernobyl for the game was that it tied to a real-world event, and gave it a little more realistic grounding than the philosophy-heavy film and book.

 

[hebdomad]

But he specializes in string theory! Find me some one more credible!

 

[Adventurer2626]

A lot depends on how it goes down. I don't actually think (God help me if I'm wrong) we're stupid enough to do the picking sides thing like in the World Wars when nuclear weapons are involved. Everyone that's heard of them knows they're bad news and has heard a plethora of horror stories on what could happen. If the Himalayas erupt with radioactive fire, I'm hoping the two just nuke each other into oblivion and that's the end of it. Same goes for anyone else. I sure as hell wouldn't back up even my best friend nation in a nuclear war. I hold the survival of humanity over any superfluous thoughts of nationalism.

Let's say a global exchange does happen:

Water EVERYWHERE will be poisoned to some degree unless by some random chance Act of God the air currents push the debris clouds away from some mountain springs.

Any beneficial mutations will not occur/become visible until decades afterwards if not much much longer and will likely be so overshadowed by the DNA "yarn balling" that no one will notice/care. More likely is that surviving life will merely adapt behaviorally and if possible pass that on genetically. No Fallout-esque mutants sorry. "Ghouls" won't be self-healing and will likely not live past the decade.

A lot of technical knowledge will be lost as well as much culture but a fair amount will survive in sturdy structures. The focus will be more on innovation than caring about the previous civilization. So the projected demographics/socio-cultural aspects, I feel, are fairly accurate. Law will become much more conservative (think pre-renaissance), people will become more homophobic/racist/sexist? and generally more selfish.

I can't predict how civilization will turn out beyond the extended period of subsistence living. Suffice to say we'd have to learn how to live and survive with constant radiation sickness for a thousand years or so. Unless there's tech/science renaissance that helps cure the rads faster.

 

[kouriichi]

What? Has he been in a nuclear Holocaust?
I dont think he knows what one is truely like unless hes been in it first hand.

they say the fallout blocks out the sun and causes an ice age that kills animals and plants. our entire ecology will collapse and we will revert earth back to the time when only microscopic cells inhabited earth. scientists studied how nuclear weapons would affect the earth, and we know very well NOW what we are getting into. if ONE nuke drops we can say goodbye to ALL electronics for miles. if the world was nuked we would lose all electronic devices and it would be an never ending winter. look at old pseudo documentaries like this:

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2023790698427111488#

this is what we USED to believe happens, now we know it isn't just the "oh, just rebuild it" attitude from the past. now, however, we know that nuclear winter will happen. A lot of scientists research these things for a reason.

So every device, generator, powerplant, and dam ((which generates power)) would become completely inoperable? And every inch of the earth would wither and die?

I have more then a hard time beliving that to be true. Science has been wrong in the past. We THINK this will happen, but we wont be sure until it really does.

I belive more in the 2012 end of the world then the entire plant freezing solid and everything dieing from a few nukes.

^Edit^

nuclear weapons produce EMPs which destroys electronics. they cant be used anymore no matter what you do. the nuclear weapons also send dust into the air and the theory is if enough of them send enough dust in the air it blocks out the sun and sends us into an ice age. it happens with very large volcanoes too. if a large enough volcano erupts and sends enough dust into the air, it creates a plume of dust that covers the surrounding area and blocks the sun for that area. scientists wouldn't know how long it would take for the dust to disappear from a couple weeks to years to completely go away

Exactly. "In theory".
We arnt sure. We can speculate, but thats really it. And what about all the placed bombs dont fall? The electronics wouldent be effected there.

And not every book on electronics would be destroyed. So if a "nuclear winter" didnt accually happen, then we would be completely fine. And even if it did, you have to take into effect green house gasses and the such.

The sun itself could heat the clouds of dust right? Thats another possible idea. And with the gasses produced below, and the suns heat above, "In theory", only parts of the plant would freeze of. Probably the parts closest to the north and south poles.

"In theory" big foot exists because theres a law that protects them for being hunted.

 

[Flauros]

Noone brings up the ozone layer. I hate to see people waiting for the fallout to disappear, waiting waiting but the radiation never goes away.....One of the things a nuclear attack can do is erase the ozone layer.....making it post-explosion radiation party time EVERYDAY as wed be completely open to space radiation. Everyone do the sad emo party dance.....

 

[Andy Chalk]

I have to say, I'm really shocked at the number of you guys who seem wholly incapable of having fun with anything.

This is a games site, y'know.

 

[Saucycarpdog]

And here I thought people could actually contribute to this instead of being snobbish kids. How silly of me.

I like hearing to this scientist. I always see him on the history channel talking about what could be real and what couldn't. Plus, he can actually explain things without resorting to words that I have to look up in the science dictionary.

 

[Substance-E]

Noone brings up the ozone layer. I hate to see people waiting for the fallout to disappear, waiting waiting but the radiation never goes away.....One of the things a nuclear attack can do is erase the ozone layer.....making it post-explosion radiation party time EVERYDAY as wed be completely open to space radiation. Everyone do the sad emo party dance.....

Ozone works on UV radiation. Solar wind and cosmic rays wont fry Earth till our core solidifies like Mars's and our atmosphere gets blasted into space...

 

[kouriichi]

What? Has he been in a nuclear Holocaust?
I dont think he knows what one is truely like unless hes been in it first hand.

they say the fallout blocks out the sun and causes an ice age that kills animals and plants. our entire ecology will collapse and we will revert earth back to the time when only microscopic cells inhabited earth. scientists studied how nuclear weapons would affect the earth, and we know very well NOW what we are getting into. if ONE nuke drops we can say goodbye to ALL electronics for miles. if the world was nuked we would lose all electronic devices and it would be an never ending winter. look at old pseudo documentaries like this:

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2023790698427111488#

this is what we USED to believe happens, now we know it isn't just the "oh, just rebuild it" attitude from the past. now, however, we know that nuclear winter will happen. A lot of scientists research these things for a reason.

So every device, generator, powerplant, and dam ((which generates power)) would become completely inoperable? And every inch of the earth would wither and die?

I have more then a hard time beliving that to be true. Science has been wrong in the past. We THINK this will happen, but we wont be sure until it really does.

I belive more in the 2012 end of the world then the entire plant freezing solid and everything dieing from a few nukes.

^Edit^

nuclear weapons produce EMPs which destroys electronics. they cant be used anymore no matter what you do. the nuclear weapons also send dust into the air and the theory is if enough of them send enough dust in the air it blocks out the sun and sends us into an ice age. it happens with very large volcanoes too. if a large enough volcano erupts and sends enough dust into the air, it creates a plume of dust that covers the surrounding area and blocks the sun for that area. scientists wouldn't know how long it would take for the dust to disappear from a couple weeks to years to completely go away

Exactly. "In theory".
We arnt sure. We can speculate, but thats really it. And what about all the placed bombs dont fall? The electronics wouldent be effected there.

And not every book on electronics would be destroyed. So if a "nuclear winter" didnt accually happen, then we would be completely fine. And even if it did, you have to take into effect green house gasses and the such.

The sun itself could heat the clouds of dust right? Thats another possible idea. And with the gasses produced below, and the suns heat above, "In theory", only parts of the plant would freeze of. Probably the parts closest to the north and south poles.

"In theory" big foot exists because theres a law that protects them for being hunted.

you're forgetting READING. how do you know people can read anymore? after the fall of Rome written language was lost and so was a lot of technological advancement. sure we have rare computers and books but who can USE them? people want macs because they cant understand computers in this day and age as it is and you want a random post-nuke caveman to use it? computers and books don't compute or put food on the table. you would have to grow food without pesticides, fertilizers, or chemicals. the American infrastructure alone is the most susceptible to general warfare, let alone nukes. the nukes will hit major cities, strategic resources, and industrial complexes. that makes most of the things of today will be lost. people don't send nukes out every which way, they CHOOSE the most important targets.

that isn't counting the general morale loss, death, societal abandonment, or the formation of raiders. hell America is struggling in math and science, that doesn't bode well for anyone especially for rebuilding. BTW America has to teach "how to use computers" in school now.

NOTE: computers would be extraordinarily USELESS since the internet would be gone, and would just be a novelty. god forbid a hardware failure would occur or you're FUCKED because there are few PC parts left.

:/ so amarica alone is f*cked.
What about the rest of the world? Is Uganda gunna get bombed?
What about hawaii? And antarctica? Theyer theory only works if every place on the planet is nuked. If every contry, civilization, and people are bombed to hell and back.

And personally, i learned to use a computer on my own. :/ in less then 2 months after i bought one i was your average troll. Computers arnt hard for anyone with half a brain.

So all in all, yes, amarica, russia, china, korea, and the iraq are would all be screwed. But what about every place not bombed? Would the world end there? Would civilization crumble? I highly doubt it.