Financial bailout .

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AntiAntagonist

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Apr 17, 2008
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sneakypenguin post=18.72780.775303 said:
BTW -- In 2005 JOHN McCAIN proposed a bill to regulate Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae because of the financial dangers they presented to the American public. Guess who blocked that bill! The Dems
Funny... that bill (S.190) also called for the privatization of a financial regulatory body.

In McCain's speech on the subject he mentioned no economic collapse or problems extraneous to the two companies (some column writers make this up, or allude to it). Also McCain did NOT propose that bill, he did cosponsor it though.

Another S.190 link

Considering this do these two companies serve as the cause of the problem or the symptom? I'd argue the latter.
 

BallPtPenTheif

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AntiAntagonist post=18.72780.775434 said:
Considering this do these two companies serve as the cause of the problem or the symptom? I'd argue the latter.
These companies created the illusion that you could profit from bad loans by selling them in bulk to other companies or countries. Once they made money off of this tactic, other banking insitutions couldn't just sit back while their competitors blazed down this path since they would be left in the dust. And who gives a shit, because we're all FDIC insured, right?

So, like some suicidal arms race of escalation everybody started following these dangerous loaning habits... everybody all the way down to individual citizens who were now getting credit card offers with limits they could never afford and buying homes that they couldn't afford.

So even though the issue is systemic of the economic practices of the last decade, it still started at Fanny and Mac.
 

Mathew952

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It's a night mare, at least financially.
On one hand, passing the bailout would be forcing an unwilling public to pay for a few CEOs Fucking up royally, It would be taking the foundations of capitalism and giving them a big fuck you, as the government would then own gigantic multinational companies, not to mention tax payers would have to fund it, And it has no guarantee of working.

On the other, Not bailing them out would cause the credit & loan market to freeze, meaning no student loans, no car loans, no mortgages, Buisness growth would stop, and many companies that needed loans to pay workers will go under, and millions of Americans will be out of jobs an healthcare, all while their banks are going under. We've already managed to wipe out 2.1 Trillion dollars in this fuck up, and now that Americans don't have much money for stupid crap, and no credit either, their not likely to be buying things they don't need, like TVs, or 3000 packs of spoons, the kind of thing the Chinese economy relies on. In short, 40 or so rich assholes have fucked over 2 of the biggest countries in the world.
 

BallPtPenTheif

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Mathew952 post=18.72780.775456 said:
On the other, Not bailing them out would cause the credit & loan market to freeze...
There is no reason to believe that it would freeze. You don't need a major corporate insitution to carry out a loan or line of credit... if these major insitutions froze their lending market then other companies would form to fill the void and capitalize on all the good loans that are still there to be had.

What will come to an end are the bad loans that everybody has been exploiting for the last 10 years. Putting more money into the market (the bail out) is basically like taking out a loan to pay for a loan while nationalizing all of our banks.

Basically, imagine you had to take a shit but rather than shitting on your carpet you decided to shit in your hand and to eat it again in order to buy yourself time until you found a toilet.
 

AntiAntagonist

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Apr 17, 2008
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BallPtPenTheif post=18.72780.775455 said:
These companies created the illusion that you could profit from bad loans by selling them in bulk to other companies or countries. Once they made money off of this tactic, other banking insitutions couldn't just sit back while their competitors blazed down this path since they would be left in the dust. And who gives a shit, because we're all FDIC insured, right?

So, like some suicidal arms race of escalation everybody started following these dangerous loaning habits... everybody all the way down to individual citizens who were now getting credit card offers with limits they could never afford and buying homes that they couldn't afford.

So even though the issue is systemic of the economic practices of the last decade, it still started at Fanny and Mac.
I still have to catch up with my reading, but the summaries eventually read to this article:
AntiAntagonist post=18.72780.775434 said:
(Long read, that I got half way through before chores two days ago. ... Half dreading going through the rest.)

My understanding is that the bill (S.190) would add more regulation other parts of the banking industry, but not those two institutions.

I need to reread this stuff, so if I patently misstated something call me out.

BallPtPenTheif post=18.72780.775282 said:
um... yeah...

The day you get that check, let me know how much a can of soda will cost.
Heh. Wish you'd been at my work the other day (same discussion).
I tell my coworker that "I'd rather not have the US turn into 1920's style Germany."
He said, 'The rest of the world will never let that happen.'

...

So, Escapists (being so international), would the rest of the world let the US drown in inflation?
 

Mathew952

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BallPtPenTheif post=18.72780.775537 said:
Mathew952 post=18.72780.775456 said:
On the other, Not bailing them out would cause the credit & loan market to freeze...
There is no reason to believe that it would freeze. You don't need a major corporate insitution to carry out a loan or line of credit... if these major insitutions froze their lending market then other companies would form to fill the void and capitalize on all the good loans that are still there to be had.

What will come to an end are the bad loans that everybody has been exploiting for the last 10 years. Putting more money into the market (the bail out) is basically like taking out a loan to pay for a loan while nationalizing all of our banks.

Basically, imagine you had to take a shit but rather than shitting on your carpet you decided to shit in your hand and to eat it again in order to buy yourself time until you found a toilet.
But the credit market has already frozen. Even people with good credit can't get loans:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26956466
 

BallPtPenTheif

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Mathew952 post=18.72780.775551 said:
But the credit market has already frozen. Even people with good credit can't get loans:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26956466
Re-read the title of the article, it's a credit crunch.. not a credit freeze. Yes it will be harder to get loans and I wouldn't be surprised if interest rates spiked but I can't see how a "freeze" would happen since even individuals are capable of giving out loans.
 

qbert4ever

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I'm kind of split on the issue. On the one hand, it's nice to see the little guy give fat cats/CEOs/the Government/whoever a slap in the face and say "stop being stupid!", but on the other hand I look at the near ten trillion [http://brillig.com/debt_clock/] dollars in debt this country is and I figure "eh, what's another 700 billion thrown onto the pile?".

Fuck it. I'm moving to France.
 

werepossum

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AntiAntagonist post=18.72780.775434 said:
sneakypenguin post=18.72780.775303 said:
BTW -- In 2005 JOHN McCAIN proposed a bill to regulate Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae because of the financial dangers they presented to the American public. Guess who blocked that bill! The Dems
Funny... that bill (S.190) also called for the privatization of a financial regulatory body.

In McCain's speech on the subject he mentioned no economic collapse or problems extraneous to the two companies (some column writers make this up, or allude to it). Also McCain did NOT propose that bill, he did cosponsor it though.

Another S.190 link

Considering this do these two companies serve as the cause of the problem or the symptom? I'd argue the latter.
Fannie May and Freddie Mac are indeed the direct cause of half of our problem; by purchasing huge quantities of junk mortgages, they effectively created a booming market for junk mortgages. However, Congress and HUD are the proximate causes. By HUD mandating that ever-increasing percentages of Fannie May's and Freddie Mac's portfolios be in low income mortgages and Congress resisting every attempt to stop this madness or install any meaningful change or oversight into financial stability PLUS treating Fannie May and Freddie Mac as government tools to provide home ownership to people not otherwise able to afford to own a home, HUD and Congress built Fannie May and Freddie Mac into huge steaming piles of bad debt.

The second half of the problem is from pure human greed. With lenders raking in cash from the new business of making bad loans and selling them to Fannie May and Freddie Mac, funds began to buy up stock in these lenders. So far that's not so bad as long as proper diversification is maintained, but then people began to make funds that essentially buy and sell futures of these lenders and other financial entities; that is, a financial instrument whose value is derived from another financial instrument's profit rather than its own possessions' inherent value. Since the market was booming and derivatives inherently produce higher profits on the up cycle, those funds became the hot commodities to own and companies competed over them, driving up the cost of the funds as well as stocks. Since most of the stock market was performing poorly, there was a lot of pressure on fund managers to buy heavily into these funds, especially the derivatives. When the market took a downturn, huge companies were caught with poorly diversified portfolios, holding huge amounts of now worthless paper (the down side of derivatives) as well as stocks that were now valued at a fraction of their former worth. And as a result of these companies' suddenly and greatly reduced portfolio values, their own stocks tanked, greatly limiting their own abilities to sell stock and raise cash. Thus a major crisis in Fannie May and Freddie Mac becomes, due to stupid decisions over thirty years (this dates back to the Carter administration), a huge problem market-wide thanks to ordinary human greed.

Anybody else notice that McCain is on the wrong side and Obama has voted "Present" in this crisis? We are well and truly screwed.
 

werepossum

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BallPtPenTheif post=18.72780.775594 said:
Mathew952 post=18.72780.775551 said:
But the credit market has already frozen. Even people with good credit can't get loans:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26956466
Re-read the title of the article, it's a credit crunch.. not a credit freeze. Yes it will be harder to get loans and I wouldn't be surprised if interest rates spiked but I can't see how a "freeze" would happen since even individuals are capable of giving out loans.
And let's not forget that it SHOULD be harder now to get loans - our problem after all is caused by bad debt.
 

Spartan Bannana

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I agree with the decision not to bail out wall street, they're the ones who gave out bad loans willy nilly, and we can't train them to expect a bailout, that will just lead to more rash decisions because they will expect to be saved, they got themselves into this mess, they should get themselves out of it
 

Trace2010

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AmericanWarMachine post=18.72780.772709 said:
Fineldar post=18.72780.772684 said:
Because people are already responsible with their money already. That's why our economy is so awesome and everyone can afford the big houses and nice cars they all drove.

It's not only the bank's fault. It's the dumbfuck who took out a huge loan to buy a nice house when he couldn't pay off the loan, which is why the banks are failing.
If the bank ALLOWS these people to have these large amounts of money, then it IS their fault. Thru, it can be said that these people should have never applied, but it is still 95% the banks fault.
And if the bank is pressured by special interest groups in Congress to grant these loans under "equal lending/housing"?
A few more points to consider:
1) No one will be going to prison for this...listen in- Republicans are blaming Demos, Demos are blaming Repubs- but the same names are being stated in any TV show or radio pgrm (it was a bi-partisan screw-up that no one will be allowed to go to jail for).
2) You neglected to mention the millions of dollars in immediate earmarks that were part of this bill that were not supported by the Repubs (and Demos) who voted against it. While earmarks for something are necessary to gain Senatorial and Representative support for the bill, it creates a complete falsehood that even supporters of the bill were simply doing it "for the good of the country."
3) Funny that Congress figures out that its inaction only hurt Barack Obama in the polls.
4) What the hell is giving every American over 18 x amount of dollars in "entitlement money" going to do to help the problem? These same people played with house money and lost, but no one is coming forward to hold them accountable on their mortgages. By the same token, if I choose to default on my credit cards, there will be no "economic bailout" to save MY credit rating.

EDIT: I forgot to mention...people who waste a little bit (of anything), will have the tendency to waste a lot (they'll just waste it on a grander scale). This solution of simply throwing money out to fools is hardly the type of economic program America needs to survive.
 

BallPtPenTheif

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Spartan Bannana post=18.72780.775728 said:
I agree with the decision not to bail out wall street, they're the ones who gave out bad loans willy nilly, and we can't train them to expect a bailout, that will just lead to more rash decisions because they will expect to be saved, they got themselves into this mess, they should get themselves out of it
If i'm for any further government involvement.. at most we could extend a credit line to these failing companies but they don't want that because then they would be held accountable to save their own asses.

We should all keep that in mind, why are we intentionally avoiding a loan or credit line to these companies? Probably because they don't want that and they just want to cash out of the problem by having the government and the tax payers pay them out of it. There are many other options available that more unstable countries have employed.. this bail out idea is extreme.

These corporate officers know a heavy recession is coming and they just want to pad their wallets to weather the storm.
 

werepossum

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Khell_Sennet post=18.72780.775718 said:
werepossum post=18.72780.773307 said:
Khell, I really don't see any difference between Douglas' Social Credit and Marx's model of communism. It's still the government deciding what you can buy, how much you should have to buy it with, and how much it should cost whilst insisting that the people are in control. Just another search for the famed triple-breasted woman in my view.
In the "For Dummies" view of things: Social credit is the belief that there should be exactly as much money in the economy as there are goods to purchase. Communism is the belief that everyone deserves the same everything as everyone else. There's no comparison between them. Social credit doesn't preach equal pay to all jobs, just that a nation's combined wealth in currency should be representative of the nation's resources and goods on a 1:1 basis.
From the wikipedia article:
Based on his conclusion that the real cost of production is less than the money distributed in production, the Douglas price rebate (Compensated Price) stems from the ratio of consumption to production. Since consumption over a period of time is typically less than production over the same period of time in any industrial society, the real cost of goods should be less than the financial cost.

For example, if the money cost of a good is $100, and the ratio of consumption to production is 3/4, then the real cost of the good is $100(3/4)=$75. As a result, if a consumer spent $100 for a good, the National Credit Authority would rebate the consumer $25. The good costs the consumer $75, the retailer receives $100, and the consumer receives the difference of $25 via new credits created by the National Credit Authority.

The National Dividend is justified by the displacement of labor in the productive process due to technological increases in productivity. As human labor is increasingly replaced by machines in the productive process, Douglas believed people should be free to consume while enjoying increasing amounts of leisure, and that the Dividend would provide this freedom.


Five points. First, this would require a really huge central government, as production and consumption would have to be tracked for every product to establish the current "National Dividends" credit. Tracking production and consumption for every product made or sold would be a huge endeavor, as would distributing the "National Dividends". All that takes a lot of labor and resources - money, in other words. Either the central government pays its employees and buys required goods, services, and resources with additional "National Dividends", creating hyperinflation, or the central government would need to impose a heavy tax burden to finance its operations.

Second, its basic premise, that production tends to exceed consumption over any given period, is demonstrably false because it requires that inventories continually increase. In reality production and consumption must be equal over the long run, because as supplies increase, prices must fall, followed by cuts in production as certain goods become less profitable to manufacture and sell.

Third, no human government capable of calculating and distributing these "National Dividends" could resist social engineering - for example, deciding that since meat is relatively bad for you and greens are relatively good for you, meat should have an artificially low dividend and greens should have an artificially high dividend. This is in a nutshell why I automatically equate Social Credit with communism, because the central government would have enormous power to set prices and control production.

Fourth, while it's true that money created by banks via loans is inflationary in the short run because it increases the amount of money without increasing the amount of goods and services to purchase, it is not inflationary in the long run because the money must be paid back with interest and because significant portions of borrowed money go to develop new means of production. For example, a loan to build a widget factory will eventually increase the supply of widgets available to be purchased; a new restaurant offers a greater supply of places to dine (a service.) By contrast, the credit in the "National Dividend" is apparently open-ended, based on some arbitrary and imaginary credit due to society. Unless the central government also issues fines when you buy something whose production is currently less than consumption, the money supply will continuously increase just as with bank loans, except under Social Credit, the increase will be exponential rather than fractional. As more goods are purchased, more dividends will be issued, leading to more purchases and therefore more dividends. As the money supply increases, either prices will increase or some people will be left with money but nothing to buy.

Fifth, without banks to loan money, socio-economic roles in society would be largely fixed for life. It would be almost impossible for an average citizen to save enough money to open a new factory or store, much less to send her children to college. Thus either the rich keep getting richer at an ever-increasing rate, or the central government must give loans or grants to others, thereby functioning with the same role as banks (which I suspect is the point of Social Credit.)

The only way I can see Social Credit functioning at all would be with a large, all-powerful central government. All business and factories would have to be part of the government's databases, to deliver up-to-the-minute numbers for production and consumption. All citizens would have to have compatible accounts within a centralized banking system so that "National Dividends" could be calculated automatically and credited (or debited) immediately via electronic transaction. I don't know how you would handle stagnation; it appears that Douglas assumed that society was set forever, with the existing stores and factories continuing and no new stores or factories being started. (The alternative would be for the central government itself to act as a bank for venture capital, a variation of the communist system where the central government not only funds, but controls and owns new businesses.

This would make a good thread, but if you start it, please include some good links on Social Credit as an economic system. The ones I found made it sound like pseudoscience.
 

bad rider

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AntiAntagonist post=18.72780.775546 said:
BallPtPenTheif post=18.72780.775455 said:
These companies created the illusion that you could profit from bad loans by selling them in bulk to other companies or countries. Once they made money off of this tactic, other banking insitutions couldn't just sit back while their competitors blazed down this path since they would be left in the dust. And who gives a shit, because we're all FDIC insured, right?

So, like some suicidal arms race of escalation everybody started following these dangerous loaning habits... everybody all the way down to individual citizens who were now getting credit card offers with limits they could never afford and buying homes that they couldn't afford.

So even though the issue is systemic of the economic practices of the last decade, it still started at Fanny and Mac.
I still have to catch up with my reading, but the summaries eventually read to this article:
AntiAntagonist post=18.72780.775434 said:
(Long read, that I got half way through before chores two days ago. ... Half dreading going through the rest.)

My understanding is that the bill (S.190) would add more regulation other parts of the banking industry, but not those two institutions.

I need to reread this stuff, so if I patently misstated something call me out.

BallPtPenTheif post=18.72780.775282 said:
um... yeah...

The day you get that check, let me know how much a can of soda will cost.
Heh. Wish you'd been at my work the other day (same discussion).
I tell my coworker that "I'd rather not have the US turn into 1920's style Germany."
He said, 'The rest of the world will never let that happen.'

...

So, Escapists (being so international), would the rest of the world let the US drown in inflation?
Not sure if it helps but does this answer your question? i believe this article shows that businesses that rely on the US would be/are thrown to the wolves
 

bad rider

The prodigal son of a goat boy
Dec 23, 2007
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BallPtPenTheif post=18.72780.775537 said:
Mathew952 post=18.72780.775456 said:
On the other, Not bailing them out would cause the credit & loan market to freeze...
There is no reason to believe that it would freeze. You don't need a major corporate insitution to carry out a loan or line of credit... if these major insitutions froze their lending market then other companies would form to fill the void and capitalize on all the good loans that are still there to be had.

What will come to an end are the bad loans that everybody has been exploiting for the last 10 years. Putting more money into the market (the bail out) is basically like taking out a loan to pay for a loan while nationalizing all of our banks.

Basically, imagine you had to take a shit but rather than shitting on your carpet you decided to shit in your hand and to eat it again in order to buy yourself time until you found a toilet.
Actually its a bit more like the difference between getting a loan from a stranger or your best friend one will take a crowbar to your face the other won't. This is down to irresponsible trading in the past and the US government needs to tighten regulations and (due to the media atm) will tighten them to stop this happening again.
 

werepossum

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Khell_Sennet post=18.72780.776174 said:
werepossum post=18.72780.775942 said:
Words... And worse yet, maths...

This would make a good thread, but if you start it, please include some good links on Social Credit as an economic system. The ones I found made it sound like pseudoscience.
As I said, read "For Us, The Living" by RA Heinlein. It is explained so perfectly in that work, his first written and last published novel. Ok, second last, Variable Star was only half-done and Spider Robinson completed it so it kinda doesn't count.
I think I may still have some Heinlein. That "first written and last published" bit strikes a chord, but I don't recognize the title. And honestly I don't think I'd even notice an economic system portrayed in a sci-fi novel. If I see it at McKay's I'll pick up a copy.
 

AntiAntagonist

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bad rider post=18.72780.775950 said:
Not sure if it helps but does this answer your question? i believe this article shows that businesses that rely on the US would be/are thrown to the wolves
I understand that globalism means that if any two markets are connected then one will impact another. My question (to my fault of not better explaining) is whether or not it is realistic to bailout the US economy. Additionally would other countries know how to help and be motivated beyond their own markets to do so?
 

werepossum

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Khell_Sennet post=18.72780.776806 said:
SNIP
You'd notice. This was Heinlein's first manuscript, when he hit upon the idea of pushing his political ideals as fictional novels. His slightly reworked social credit system is detailed in such a way that you don't realize he's pushing political views on you, but it's almost the entire point of the novel. Ironically still a damn good read.

As to the possibility of having it, it was only released a couple years ago, edited and published post-mortem with the assistance of Spider Robinson and Heinlein's last wife. Since the beginning of his career he was toting around this novel, and ironically it's one of his best, but none of the publishers at the time would touch it.
Then I don't have it; I'm pretty sure I've not bought any Heinlein within the last couple of years. I must be thinking of another author's "first written, last published" novel. Still, if it's a good read I'll look at the used book store for a copy.
 

Digitaldreamer7

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honestly we need to take the loans from the banks for the homes, and let the people responsible go down with the ships. the government can then help the people in those homes to get a place to live or pay the government monthly payments for the homes. Screw saving the people who got themselves into the mess in the first place