Forbes Analyst Calls Game Over For Microsoft

[Treblaine]

Sorry, but who is trading in their Mass Effect and Call of Duty for Angry-Birds?

Yes, console sales are shrinking, and tablet/phone market is growing, but it's NOT because people are leaving consoles for Tablets, that's just a silly assumption.

Console gamers are still playing games, they just aren't buying them. There is such a huge used market, they are endlessly cycling through that and the market is saturated, it's reaching a point where everyone who wants an xbox has probably got one by now.

The people buying tablets are people like my mum, and older art-student sister, who never considered playing any kind of "core" video game.

And how do you measure growth in the PC market? How can you tell the difference between a PC bought for general browsing + word processing and one for gaming? Even gaming capable ones often don't have any games installed on them!

 

[Treblaine]

Explain to me how Linux has made any advantage over Windows, aside from the biggest whiner in the industry deciding to run to it the moment he was faced with actual competition?

Actually don't explain it to me. I don't really care.

Ask Valve.

They developed Left 4 Dead for windows machines and years of tweaking to get the performance it has.

Porting it to linux and with only a few weeks of tweaking, they got it to outperform the game running on the same hardware using windows.

http://www.joystiq.com/2012/08/04/linux-left-4-dead-2-outperforms-direct-x-windows-version/

Linux is simply better. Fundamentally.

The only advantage Windows has is that it's established and widely supported in terms of drives and game releases. But WINE is changing that, which "spoofs" the Windows environment yet leaves the handling down to the Linux OS, works damn well.

In a perfect work, every PC would run Linux... but, it's everyone making that leap together. There are enough XKCD jokes about Linux users who jumped before everyone else.

 

[mysecondlife]

it appears the article was pulled. the link doesnt work

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:Z07qoZSJTV8J:www.forbes.com/sites/adamhartung/2013/01/20/sell-microsoft-now-game-over-ballmer-loses/

Here you go. When I first checked it, it got a lot of negative reactions. I'm guessing that's why forbes pulled it.

 

[VoidWanderer]

So Forbes is the 'Fox News' of the financial world?

 

[MeChaNiZ3D]

I doubt Microsoft will fall so easily, but I'm not an analyst, so I'll see. Consoles have been a heavy undertaking by all parties except maybe Nintendo - some of the time.

 

[loc978]

I sincerely hope it's true this time, a smaller microsoft could finally make competition in the PC market healthy again. It's been easily half of my life since that happened.
(says the guy typing on a 4 year old laptop running ubuntu)

 

[RicoADF]

Yikes. If microsoft were to go under, that'd be the end of PC Gaming... and the PC altogether.

Hey Microsoft... don't die. Please?

Your joking right.......?
Linux would take over, heck its already making headways thanks to Win8

Yeah sure. The one operating system without anything in the territory of tech support in case it breaks. Linux. The operating system described as "Don't uninstall the OS your computer came with, just in case."

Explain to me how Linux has made any advantage over Windows, aside from the biggest whiner in the industry deciding to run to it the moment he was faced with actual competition?

Actually don't explain it to me. I don't really care.

First off, Linux has already started to take off on phones and tablets, it's called Android. Also the PS3 runs on Linux.

So right off the bat we have 2 linux versions with full support and run with no need for windows. As for desktop, there are Linux versions that come with support like Windows, arguably better support, for a price (not all Linux distributions are free, and of those that are many offer support for a fee). However even if someone wants to go the free route without paying for the support, theres also the linux community. You ask it and they will answer it on the community forums, not to mention IRC chat's. Microsoft doesn't offer live chat support for free however the IRC chat's are exactly that.

The only reason people say "Don't uninstall the OS your computer came with, just in case" is as a backup for those first going into the linux scene. It's basically incase theres a program you must use that hasn't got an alternative (usually gaming) or you computer has a very obscure peice of hardware that linux doesn't support, however that's becoming very rare now. The other reason is because people like what's familiar, and by keeping Windows on the system if the person doesn't like Linux they can switch back easily (or want to ease themselves in and don't want to jump fully in at once).

For the most part it's literally gaming that's holding Linux back, if AAA games supported linux (and considering as already mentioned the PS3 is Linux and thus a desktop linux version wouldn't be that hard) then myself and many other's would drop Windows in a second. Linux is faster, more secure and far less headachs. Most importantly Linux is made to work how YOU want it, not how some egg head in Microsoft HQ tells you to have it (See Windows 8 and Metro/Modern UI).

 

[Kuredan]

steve ballmer is the key to this.

2. the xbox (hardware) project has been making losses from launch. Microsoft has tried to hide the losses on the companys balance sheet by doing things like altering the company accounting structure and placing the division under Offices and the like and has been royally pissing off its major corporate investors in the process because major corporate investors know how to read fucking accounts.

While I may agree that the core of Microsoft has been its software, I disagree with your statement. I was a shareholder of Microsoft when the first XBOX came out and when I looked at the shareholders report every year, I didn't see a giant gaping money hole for the XBOX. It's true that the console didn't turn a profit until the very last parts of its release cycle; that was explained in the reports. It also showed that this money was recouped using licensing deals for its games and the profits from games developed in house.

While that may not be the best model for profit, I can't really see how offering a high end electronic device at consumer prices can be sold at anything but a loss. Amazon does the same thing. They often sell hardware at a loss and make it up with volume in other sales generated by the hardware. It makes no logical sense, but if I had invested in them back when they first started out and I had yet to understand their business model, I'd have a lot more return on my investment now. It defies conventional revenue models but it works.

The XBOX 360 is an even better example. Microsoft minimized the loss per unit and had a much larger target set for licensing as developers actually wanted to make games for the next console. The hardware actually starting turn a profit in 2008. The Playstation 3 didn't turn a profit until mid 2010. This doesn't mean that the consoles are unprofitable or that they are a hole for the company. It's considered an acceptable risk to make a loss on the hardware end if that loss is ameliorated by subsequent revenue created as a result of purchasing the hardware (eg. games.)

Now if you want to talk about Microsoft pitfalls, it's ironically in the software department I think you'll find the worst flaws. Windows 8 hasn't grabbed the attention of most users, and for good reason. I have used it since the pre-release and we still are not friends. They seriously kneecapped my productivity with the UI and it's about intuitive as a treatise on Warp drive configurations in the original Klingon. It's a terrible operating system for a desktop, it's the childproof scissors of OSes. It would probably work fine on a tablet, but the offerings for a Win 8 tablet are slim and unappealing. They had a great idea for the keyboard on the Surface though. Touchscreens are serious hampers for productivity so its nice to see the Surface at least get one thing right. All in all, Windows 7 was in the right direction. Windows 8 was in a direction but I'm not quite sure which one. It's sure not the way I'm going, though.

As for 40% of users still having XP, it's no real surprise. This is the same reason so many people still use Internet Explorer and probably IE6 or 7; it's what came on their computer and they see no need to get a new computer or change anything. Also most government/ business contracts still have a lot of XP licenses still left so they will stay in XP for monetary reasons and what's more XP has a lot more stability and security options.

 

[Ken Sapp]

Yikes. If microsoft were to go under, that'd be the end of PC Gaming... and the PC altogether.

Hey Microsoft... don't die. Please?

Your joking right.......?
Linux would take over, heck its already making headways thanks to Win8

Yeah sure. The one operating system without anything in the territory of tech support in case it breaks. Linux. The operating system described as "Don't uninstall the OS your computer came with, just in case."

Explain to me how Linux has made any advantage over Windows, aside from the biggest whiner in the industry deciding to run to it the moment he was faced with actual competition?

Actually don't explain it to me. I don't really care.

First off, Linux has already started to take off on phones and tablets, it's called Android. Also the PS3 runs on Linux.

So right off the bat we have 2 linux versions with full support and run with no need for windows. As for desktop, there are Linux versions that come with support like Windows, arguably better support, for a price (not all Linux distributions are free, and of those that are many offer support for a fee). However even if someone wants to go the free route without paying for the support, theres also the linux community. You ask it and they will answer it on the community forums, not to mention IRC chat's. Microsoft doesn't offer live chat support for free however the IRC chat's are exactly that.

The only reason people say "Don't uninstall the OS your computer came with, just in case" is as a backup for those first going into the linux scene. It's basically incase theres a program you must use that hasn't got an alternative (usually gaming) or you computer has a very obscure peice of hardware that linux doesn't support, however that's becoming very rare now. The other reason is because people like what's familiar, and by keeping Windows on the system if the person doesn't like Linux they can switch back easily (or want to ease themselves in and don't want to jump fully in at once).

For the most part it's literally gaming that's holding Linux back, if AAA games supported linux (and considering as already mentioned the PS3 is Linux and thus a desktop linux version wouldn't be that hard) then myself and many other's would drop Windows in a second. Linux is faster, more secure and far less headachs. Most importantly Linux is made to work how YOU want it, not how some egg head in Microsoft HQ tells you to have it (See Windows 8 and Metro/Modern UI).

Here's an interesting question for you:

What if I like how the egghead at Microsoft HQ designed my OS (I obviously do, otherwise I wouldn't have bought it)? Maybe I don't want to spend hours configuring a linux system only to have it die on me anyway. There's some things I don't WANT to put together myself. Why? Because I'm not an expert on how computer software runs. That's kinda the whole reason Microsoft exists in the first place.

My problem with Linux is that it doesn't actually DO anything. I've actually tried linux before. It's worthless. None of my software works with it, it's a ***** to get it to recognize all my internal hardware (like my wireless card) and when it does crap out I have to deal with some douchebags on a forum with a massive superiority complex.

Not to mention I had to contact Microsoft Support to help install Windows 8, and they were a massive help.

Personally I can say that I will never move to Linux. Mostly because I really don't like it, and also because my job involves the use of the Adobe library and Sony Vegas. And guess what they don't run on?

You started my point before I had a chance to.

I do have to slightly disagree with you while greatly disagreeing with RicoADF. I think Windows 8 is a dog. I tested each release, including the final production release, and found the Metro interface to be nothing but a hindrance. The rest of the OS, once you get past Metro, is fine though. It runs my apps just as well as Windows XP, Vista, and 7 ran them.

On the subject of Linux, I have used Linux off and on for several years and am typing this on a Linux box. For average use it is perfectly serviceable, with occasional hiccups like unsupported wireless cards. However, lack of AAA gaming is not what is holding it back from popular use. Snooty holier-than-thou geeks, lack of industry standard productivity software such as Adobe products, AutoCAD, professional multimedia software, and limited or non-existent preinstalled Linux computers are what is holding it back. AAA gaming plays only a small role in Linux's continuing small role in desktop computing. If there were a large enough install-base of Linux computers AAA game companies would be all over them, but you can't expect a gaming company to sink millions of dollars into development for a platform that has seen only mild growth over the past decade.

 

[RicoADF]

Yikes. If microsoft were to go under, that'd be the end of PC Gaming... and the PC altogether.

Hey Microsoft... don't die. Please?

Your joking right.......?
Linux would take over, heck its already making headways thanks to Win8

Yeah sure. The one operating system without anything in the territory of tech support in case it breaks. Linux. The operating system described as "Don't uninstall the OS your computer came with, just in case."

Explain to me how Linux has made any advantage over Windows, aside from the biggest whiner in the industry deciding to run to it the moment he was faced with actual competition?

Actually don't explain it to me. I don't really care.

First off, Linux has already started to take off on phones and tablets, it's called Android. Also the PS3 runs on Linux.

So right off the bat we have 2 linux versions with full support and run with no need for windows. As for desktop, there are Linux versions that come with support like Windows, arguably better support, for a price (not all Linux distributions are free, and of those that are many offer support for a fee). However even if someone wants to go the free route without paying for the support, theres also the linux community. You ask it and they will answer it on the community forums, not to mention IRC chat's. Microsoft doesn't offer live chat support for free however the IRC chat's are exactly that.

The only reason people say "Don't uninstall the OS your computer came with, just in case" is as a backup for those first going into the linux scene. It's basically incase theres a program you must use that hasn't got an alternative (usually gaming) or you computer has a very obscure peice of hardware that linux doesn't support, however that's becoming very rare now. The other reason is because people like what's familiar, and by keeping Windows on the system if the person doesn't like Linux they can switch back easily (or want to ease themselves in and don't want to jump fully in at once).

For the most part it's literally gaming that's holding Linux back, if AAA games supported linux (and considering as already mentioned the PS3 is Linux and thus a desktop linux version wouldn't be that hard) then myself and many other's would drop Windows in a second. Linux is faster, more secure and far less headachs. Most importantly Linux is made to work how YOU want it, not how some egg head in Microsoft HQ tells you to have it (See Windows 8 and Metro/Modern UI).

Here's an interesting question for you:

What if I like how the egghead at Microsoft HQ designed my OS (I obviously do, otherwise I wouldn't have bought it)? Maybe I don't want to spend hours configuring a linux system only to have it die on me anyway. There's some things I don't WANT to put together myself. Why? Because I'm not an expert on how computer software runs. That's kinda the whole reason Microsoft exists in the first place.

My problem with Linux is that it doesn't actually DO anything. I've actually tried linux before. It's worthless. None of my software works with it, it's a ***** to get it to recognize all my internal hardware (like my wireless card) and when it does crap out I have to deal with some douchebags on a forum with a massive superiority complex.

Not to mention I had to contact Microsoft Support to help install Windows 8, and they were a massive help.

Personally I can say that I will never move to Linux. Mostly because I really don't like it, and also because my job involves the use of the Adobe library and Sony Vegas. And guess what they don't run on?

You started my point before I had a chance to.

I do have to slightly disagree with you while greatly disagreeing with RicoADF. I think Windows 8 is a dog. I tested each release, including the final production release, and found the Metro interface to be nothing but a hindrance. The rest of the OS, once you get past Metro, is fine though. It runs my apps just as well as Windows XP, Vista, and 7 ran them.

On the subject of Linux, I have used Linux off and on for several years and am typing this on a Linux box. For average use it is perfectly serviceable, with occasional hiccups like unsupported wireless cards. However, lack of AAA gaming is not what is holding it back from popular use. Snooty holier-than-thou geeks, lack of industry standard productivity software such as Adobe products, AutoCAD, professional multimedia software, and limited or non-existent preinstalled Linux computers are what is holding it back. AAA gaming plays only a small role in Linux's continuing small role in desktop computing. If there were a large enough install-base of Linux computers AAA game companies would be all over them, but you can't expect a gaming company to sink millions of dollars into development for a platform that has seen only mild growth over the past decade.

You do make some good points about pre-install and elitist attitude. I'm sure you could get most of them working but not quickly or easily. However at the end of the day the issues you both have (valid too) wouldn't exist if linux took off as software would be made for it. Very much a catch 22 there.

OT: Microsoft may not be undisputed king anymore, but their not going anywhere. Simply put there would have to be a massive shift of userbase before software companies abandoned Windows.

 

[DarkhoIlow]

I still want them to make a new operating system every few years so I really hope this doesn't happen.

They have alienated their PC customers and they have focused entirely on the Xbox. I can understand fully since it's all about business and they go wherever they can get the most money out of. Since Steam is currently is "dominating" pretty much everything when it comes to PC games because it is very convenient and easy to use (reduced sales after a period of time, bundles etc). I can't see them ever coming back to the PC market and they will continue to throw money on exclusive games/dlc for their own console.

Just keep making your operating systems and continue investing in your consoles, Microsoft, we PC gamers no longer care about you.

 

[Flaery]

I'd hate to see this simply for the Fact that the less competition will put more power into the hands of Nintendo and Sony.

 

[Ken Sapp]

snip

You do make some good points about pre-install and elitist attitude. I'm sure you could get most of them working but not quickly or easily. However at the end of the day the issues you both have (valid too) wouldn't exist if linux took off as software would be made for it. Very much a catch 22 there.

OT: Microsoft may not be undisputed king anymore, but their not going anywhere. Simply put there would have to be a massive shift of userbase before software companies abandoned Windows.

I agree, Microsoft is far from dead. I would really like to see Linux grow large enough to become a threat because that would be the kick in the pants that MS really needs to get their act together, listen to their customers and be competitive again. Apple has pretty much devoted itself to tablets and phones and let their PC business fall out of primary focus so I don't see a real threat coming from that direction in the desktop/laptop market.

Pre-installed systems are the key for Linux in my opinion. Most people have never and will never deal with official support channels such as MS phone support or Linux support forums. They either take it to the shop or let that one relative who knows computers fix it. And the vast majority of consumers do not buy and install OSes, rather they get whatever comes on their brand new Dell/HP/Lenovo/Vaio/etc... If that is an OS with everything they need already on it (Office apps, browser) then they will be much more amenable to finding free software through channels like the Ubuntu Software Center. I could take and put Ubuntu on most of the computers in my family and they would never have a problem as long as the Firefox icon was right there on the desktop or the taskbar.

 

[newwiseman]

40% of the user base is still using XP and MS believes that as dramatic a design change as default win8 would move units to them... no, just no. They should fix the ugly ass interface without relying on third party software that most people are to stupid to install, and then advertise the features of the new OS that XP-win7 can't do.

The reason apple keeps moving OS versions is because they've staggered out the design changes and lowered the cost. Instead of a complete overhaul every 3-5 years they are doing what amounts to a large update every year for a third the cost of longer developed counter part. I do have complaints about the hardware restrictions but this is a critique of MS.

For my two cents MS need to stop developing IE, it's been broken since day one and all the development in the world isn't making it any better.