Georgia and Russia on Brink of War

[Unmannedperson]

Yesterday, Georgian forces opened fire on the capital of separatist South Ossetia, Tskhinvali. The Russians, siding with the Ossetians, have moved 150+ tanks and other forces into Georgia. The area is on the brink of all-out warfare as the Georgians and the Russians begin battle over the besieged capital. I'm not much of a reporter, so here is a link to a better article:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7548715.stm
Youtube video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTQVVkudisU

Discuss.

 

[PurpleRain]

Wow, and nothing of this is on the news here. This is important.

 

[Spleeni]

WTFHAX.
I need a cold beer.
WHY is Russia attacking Georgia?!

...
I mean aside from more territory.

 

[Unmannedperson]

WTFHAX.
I need a cold beer.
WHY is Russia attacking Georgia?!

...
I mean aside from more territory.

Russia is attacking Georgia because Russia is defending the Ossetians, whom the Georgians attacked.

Kind of like...
Russia attacked Austria-Hungary because Russia was defending the Serbians, whom the A-H's attacked.
...
...
Oh... shiiiiiii........

 

[Fire Daemon]

Wow, and nothing of this is on the news here. This is important.

I'm shocked that no one has reported this. How strange.

 

[zirnitra]

I have to say I'm on the Russian's side for this(I say that quite a lot), they're just protecting the Ossetians with Russian citizenship and Georgia has reportedly started bombing the city hospital in Tskhinvali and red cross isen't their to evacuate the civilians and wounded into Russia.

 

[LordCraigus]

If you read up on the events you come to find that since the disbanding of Soviet Union in 1991 Georgia has been wanting to take South Ossetia for itself, but Ossetia wanting to remain a seperatist state, fought back. In 1992 Georgia eventually conceeded, not wanting to provoke large-scale Russian involvement and a ceasefire was drawn up.

However, since then there have been numerous smaller political and military clashes between Georgia and South Ossetia, with the most recent flare up in violence being in the past week. Russia responded this time, rightly so I believe. Hopefully there'll be peace negotiations soon because I don't want to see this get more serious than it already is.

It's funny you say there's been no reports of it because yesterday here in the UK the news stories seemed to alternate between the Olympics and this conflict.

 

[sunami88]

Wow, this sounds pretty bad.

Wikipedia has been useful for once, it seems to have a play-by-play [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_South_Ossetia_(2008)#9_August]* of current and past events (but like everything on Wikipedia, you might want to take it with a grain of salt).

* I couldn't think of a more tactful way to put it at time of writing.

 

[DeadlyYellow]

Wow, and nothing of this is on the news here. This is important.

08/08/08 The start of the 2008 Olympics in Beijing, used as a ploy to cover it.

 

[edinflames]

I have to say I'm on the Russian's side for this(I say that quite a lot), they're just protecting the Ossetians with Russian citizenship and Georgia has reportedly started bombing the city hospital in Tskhinvali and red cross isen't their to evacuate the civilians and wounded into Russia.

I hope that the conflict won't overreach the mandate the Russians have apparently given themselves to protect the area. Once troops are on the ground, it is often difficult (for a variety of reasons/excuses) to bring them home again.

Remember, the USA has used planned war pretexts in the past (Lusitania - WW1, Gulf of Tonkin - Vietnam) so to assume that we're getting the whole story from Russia (whose government is historically predisposed to intrigue, espionage and expansionism) may prove to be naive. Incidently, the timing is more than convenient. Call me a cynic but part of me thinks this has been planned for some time.

Best case scenario: The Russians devastating superiority of firepower brings a swift end to the conflict at the cost of many Georgian lives. The Georgians retreat to their legitimate borders. A UN patrolled DMZ is established.

Worst case scenario: The Russians military supremacy proves to be illusionary as a brutal guerrilla war begins. Massive casualties on all sides. In order to stamp out Georgian resistance a full scale invasion of Georgia and Ossetia takes place. Population centres are devastated by Russian air power as a prelude to the tank divisions rolling in. Soon it becomes apparent that Russia is using the opportunity to bring Georgia and Ossetia forcibly into the Russian Federation. The USA 'does an Afganistan' and covertly uses its resources and CIA types to fuel the fires of Georgian resistance. A ten year war of occupation begins and international relations between East and West crumble.

Edit: oh and i forgot to mention the region's importance on the East-West Oil and Gas transit routes. Pipelines, pipelines, pipelines. Let us not forget that the Taliban would (probably) still be in power today had they agreed to the construction of the proposed Haliburton pipeline.

 

[N-Sef]

Yeah I suppose the hooplah around the Olympics has overshadowed this thing. I heard about this on the radio last night, and I couldn't believe I heard nothing about it. Apparantly CNN is running streams about it, but I'm not sure.

We'll see how quickly (or slowly, depending on how burnt out you are) the UN will step into this.

 

[stompy]

Worst case scenario: The Russians military supremacy proves to be illusionary as a brutal guerrilla war begins. Massive casualties on all sides. In order to stamp out Georgian resistance a full scale invasion of Georgia and Ossetia takes place. Population centres are devastated by Russian air power as a prelude to the tank divisions rolling in. Soon it becomes apparent that Russia is using the opportunity to bring Georgia and Ossetia forcibly into the Russian Federation. The USA 'does an Afganistan' and covertly uses its resources and CIA types to fuel the fires of Georgian resistance. A ten year war of occupation begins and international relations between East and West crumble.

That sounds like the beginning of all-out war... Like Unmannedperson said, shiii..

 

[Saskwach]

Wow, and nothing of this is on the news here. This is important.

I'm shocked that no one has reported this. How strange.

I just saw a report on it tonight; our stations aren't that bad (I like to think). Of course, there was also a story on how a woman set fire to her house thanks to ye olde candles but you can't have everything.
As for the crisis itself, if there's one thing I've learned about Eastern Europe it's that demographics and national loyalties are horribly heterogeneous; it's a madhouse I would never want to sort out.

I have to say I'm on the Russian's side for this(I say that quite a lot), they're just protecting the Ossetians with Russian citizenship and Georgia has reportedly started bombing the city hospital in Tskhinvali and red cross isen't their to evacuate the civilians and wounded into Russia.

I was ready to agree, but then I read this: "However, it has vowed to defend its citizens in South Ossetia - of which there are many. More than half of South Ossetia's 70,000 citizens are said to have taken up Moscow's offer of a Russian passport." http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7549736.stm
It might just be that the sentence was constructed badly - or maliciously - but that implies to me that Russia has been creating citizens very deliberately - probably for this very reason.

 

[dart sifilis]

If Russia would decide to start actually WAR against Georgia, in this case Georgia'll disappear in couple of days. To this moment, it IS just military help to country, Georgia violently attacked by bombing peaceful towns. THAT should be stressed and shown in news, but it won't because Western press obviously likes to show Russia like crazed overraged bear.

 

[Knight Templar]

WTFHAX.
I need a cold beer.
WHY is Russia attacking Georgia?!

...
I mean aside from more territory.

Russia is attacking Georgia because Russia is defending the Ossetians, whom the Georgians attacked.

Kind of like...
Russia attacked Austria-Hungary because Russia was defending the Serbians, whom the A-H's attacked.
...
...
Oh... shiiiiiii........

Because that part of land is technaly Georgia your suppost to call them rebles.

And russia say they invaded because ten russian solders were killed, which was their own falt. Soldiers arn't colour coded, sit with the enermy and you will get killed.

Georgia is a westen ally and was a breakaway state of russia. Russia would do allmost anything to distroy Georgia.



If russia was protecting people then they are stupid, more will die because of this war then would be saved.

Russia is on the way to becoming a new USSR, not that I think it will ever get that far.

Wow, and nothing of this is on the news here. This is important.

08/08/08 The start of the 2008 Olympics in Beijing, used as a ploy to cover it.

God I hope you're wrong.

 

[Hey Joe]

Wait a minute. Russia is supporting a separtist state, when it wouldn't support an independent Kosovo state or a Tibetan state because it may have been seen as a softening of policy re: Chechnya?

Those crazy ruskies!

Still, worrying things are afoot.

 

[Knight Templar]

Wait a minute. Russia is supporting a separtist state, when it wouldn't support an independent Kosovo state or a Tibetan state because it may have been seen as a softening of policy re: Chechnya?

Those crazy ruskies!

Still, worrying things are afoot.

But after the war those sep's are likely to become part of Russia, trading one master for another.

 

[Unknower]

If Russia would decide to start actually WAR against Georgia, in this case Georgia'll disappear in couple of days. To this moment, it IS just military help to country, Georgia violently attacked by bombing peaceful towns. THAT should be stressed and shown in news, but it won't because Western press obviously likes to show Russia like crazed overraged bear.

Eh, Georgia's opinion is that those peaceful towns shot at them with mortars first.

 

[Brett Alex]

Wait a minute. Russia is supporting a separtist state, when it wouldn't support an independent Kosovo state or a Tibetan state because it may have been seen as a softening of policy re: Chechnya?

Those crazy ruskies!

Still, worrying things are afoot.

If I'm not mistaken, around the time of the whole Kosovo thing earlier this year there was a lot of speculation and possible (can't remember) quotes from Russian officials that they could justify the Ossetia thing with it, saying it would be unfair for the West to stop them because they all backed the balkanization of Kosovo.

 

[Saskwach]

If Russia would decide to start actually WAR against Georgia, in this case Georgia'll disappear in couple of days. To this moment, it IS just military help to country, Georgia violently attacked by bombing peaceful towns. THAT should be stressed and shown in news, but it won't because Western press obviously likes to show Russia like crazed overraged bear.

Russia isn't a crazed, overraged bear; it's a very calculating, ambitious bear.