Well, I know that is the official explanation for global warming, but my box is a much simpler way of looking at it. If you put the earth in a box, then you don't care about what goes on inside that box, all you care about is how much heat goes into that box, and how much heat comes out of that box. (More accurately the boundaries of your box is two concentric hollow spheres, the bigger one surrounds everything on earth, the smaller one surrounds the earth's crust, so the bit in between the two spheres is your box. So oil and coal and gas coming from underground, is also being brought into the box.)werepossum post=18.73528.822949 said:CO2 warming doesn't work quite like that. What happens is that the sun's energy comes through the atmosphere mostly in visible frequencies and strikes the Earth, warming it. The warmed Earth then gives off energy by radiating in much longer wave lengths like heat. CO2 absorbs little energy within the visible spectra, but absorbs a lot of heat within a narrow long wave spectrum. Thus CO2 and other greenhouse gases allow the energy to pass in, but trap it on the way back out. This is good because without that trapped energy we would be quite cold and lifeless, but is potentially bad because too much trapped heat makes things unpleasant.
The debate on CO2 warming is at what point do we reach saturation - in other words, at what point has all the radiation (within that band that CO2 absorbs) actually been absorbed, so that further CO2 has no effect because there is no more of that radiation to be absorbed by the additional CO2? And when that point is reached, will that amount of heat continue to heat the Earth, or will it be offset by other natural feedback phenomena?
There are of course other nasty affects of excess CO2, such as acid rain, increased erosion of stone and soft metals, and ocean acidification. These things to me are more worrisome than the heating effect of CO2; I think we reached saturation for the heating some time ago.
AMEN thank younmmoore13 post=18.73528.798440 said:Solution: realize global warming is not man made.
Let's try that again. I've put my original request in bold for your review. We are specifically referring to the reliability of ice build-up knowledge. In your first example, geological evidence differed from Carbon-13 dating; the geological evidence was judged more accurate by the writer of the article because of a possible tie-in to a recorded event in human history. Yet what I'm looking for is evidence that science can today successfully predict the depth of a layer in ice before coring it.raemiel post=18.73528.823041 said:First of all I must apologise as this will be a lengthy forum post, but read through it as I must answer werepossum's challenge to provide examples of when geophysical methods have been utilised to accurately date environmental phenomena.
The Hatepe eruption of the caldera forming Lake Taupo in New Zealand is a perfect example of this. Information on it can be found at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hatepe_eruption (I know it is wikipedia but this entry is well referenced). Have a read of the Stages of eruption and Dating the Event sections.werepossum post=18.73528.822850 said:So name for us some projects where the depth of ice for a particular dateable phenomenon was predicted and correctly found? Let's say a particular volcano erupted in 1312 and was well documented - where are the projects that accurately predicted the depth of burial for that layer of sediment? Saying that one unverifiable study is well-correlated with another unverifiable study is all well and good, but if we're to believe the end is nigh and turn over control to the nigh-sayers, I'd like some repeatable evidence that the system of unverifiable studies can be reasonably proved accurate.raemiel post=18.73528.822733 said:That's simply not true, the methods utilised in correlating ice-core dating with dates are very refined. Ice-core dating is the science in this area which gets the most attention but it is not the only technique, nor is it the most far back reaching. Dating of cores of marine and lacustrine sediments provides a much older timescale and is utilised in conjunction with sciences like ice-core logging and stratigraphic fossil assemblages to provide a fairly comprehensive history of temperature and climate variation.werepossum post=18.73528.822711 said:Since efforts to correlate ice core dating with known dates have been poor at best, I'd rather not put all my eggs into that basket.
It's not like they use the core retrieved on it's own and preserved air-bubbles in ice is not the only way to determine climatic changes. The whole discipline of palaeoclimate analysis utilises a huge amount of sciences, many of which one would not even have thought could be applied in such a manner. Claiming that the results are 'poor at best' is just a slap in the face to thousands of scientists and illustrates an unenlightened perspective on the subject at hand.
As an example, consider the rate of deceleration in the universe's expansion. For decades it was taken as a given that the universe was expanding AND that the rate of expansion was decreasing. Many studies and observations attempted to measure the rate of deceleration with various degrees of success, but no published studies found acceleration. Then we get some instruments in space, take some better measurements, and presto! The universe's expansion is actually accelerating. Now every study and observation measuring the rate of acceleration in the universe's rate of expansion finds acceleration. The moral is that universal agreement in science does not always indicate the right answer. Science blindly followed is not science; it's religion.
Six distinct sedimentary units are identified in the stratigrapy surrounding this eruption which occured before human habitation of the area. Tsunami deposits have been identified as being associated with the eruption as well. Sedimentary analysis also indicates the eruption expanded the surrounding lake and caused a week long flood.
Initally the event was dated at 130 CE based on carbon dating techniques. This was seen to be a little inaccurate and so geophysical techniques were utilised to identify tephra laminations in the sedimentary record which were sourced from the eruption. The extent of tephra deposits indicates a massive eruptive column and cloud which would have been visible from China and Rome. Records from China and Rome correlate to what would be observed at the time of the eruption and so the eruption can be dated exactly to 186CE.
A different, and much more interesting, eruption of Taupo was the Oruanui eruption. This is the world's largest known volcanic eruption for the last 70 000 years and occured around 24 500BC. Information for it can be found at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oruanui_eruption
The very shape of Lake Taupo is derived from this eruption as it was so massive. Tephra from the eruption can be up to 200 meters thick in the sedimentary record, and 1 000km away an 18cm ash layer (18cm is still a pretty thick layer in this circumstance) has been identified to be from this eruption.
This eruption occured far before human records and thus dating it relies on geophysical techniques. Techniques utilised would have included been stratigraphic correlation from around the world of sedimentary layers and the fossil record (macro and microscopic), atmospheric and particulate composition determination from ice-cores and geophysical analysis of the areas geomorphology just to name a few.
Note: dating this does not involve radioisotope dating, it is all geophysical.
Right, sorry for that lengthy post. This is not blind following of science and these eruptions are verified and accepted by the scientific community.
I realise that you initially referred to ice-coring but you then (even in the bold section) broadened your question to geophysical correlation.werepossum post=18.73528.823182 said:Let's try that again. I've put my original request in bold for your review. We are specifically referring to the reliability of ice build-up knowledge. In your first example, geological evidence differed from Carbon-13 dating; the geological evidence was judged more accurate by the writer of the article because of a possible tie-in to a recorded event in human history. Yet what I'm looking for is evidence that science can today successfully predict the depth of a layer in ice before coring it.raemiel post=18.73528.823041 said:First of all I must apologise as this will be a lengthy forum post, but read through it as I must answer werepossum's challenge to provide examples of when geophysical methods have been utilised to accurately date environmental phenomena.
The Hatepe eruption of the caldera forming Lake Taupo in New Zealand is a perfect example of this. Information on it can be found at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hatepe_eruption (I know it is wikipedia but this entry is well referenced). Have a read of the Stages of eruption and Dating the Event sections.werepossum post=18.73528.822850 said:So name for us some projects where the depth of ice for a particular dateable phenomenon was predicted and correctly found? Let's say a particular volcano erupted in 1312 and was well documented - where are the projects that accurately predicted the depth of burial for that layer of sediment? Saying that one unverifiable study is well-correlated with another unverifiable study is all well and good, but if we're to believe the end is nigh and turn over control to the nigh-sayers, I'd like some repeatable evidence that the system of unverifiable studies can be reasonably proved accurate.raemiel post=18.73528.822733 said:werepossum post=18.73528.822711 said:Since efforts to correlate ice core dating with known dates have been poor at best, I'd rather not put all my eggs into that basket.
That's simply not true, the methods utilised in correlating ice-core dating with dates are very refined. Ice-core dating is the science in this area which gets the most attention but it is not the only technique, nor is it the most far back reaching. Dating of cores of marine and lacustrine sediments provides a much older timescale and is utilised in conjunction with sciences like ice-core logging and stratigraphic fossil assemblages to provide a fairly comprehensive history of temperature and climate variation.
It's not like they use the core retrieved on it's own and preserved air-bubbles in ice is not the only way to determine climatic changes. The whole discipline of palaeoclimate analysis utilises a huge amount of sciences, many of which one would not even have thought could be applied in such a manner. Claiming that the results are 'poor at best' is just a slap in the face to thousands of scientists and illustrates an unenlightened perspective on the subject at hand.
As an example, consider the rate of deceleration in the universe's expansion. For decades it was taken as a given that the universe was expanding AND that the rate of expansion was decreasing. Many studies and observations attempted to measure the rate of deceleration with various degrees of success, but no published studies found acceleration. Then we get some instruments in space, take some better measurements, and presto! The universe's expansion is actually accelerating. Now every study and observation measuring the rate of acceleration in the universe's rate of expansion finds acceleration. The moral is that universal agreement in science does not always indicate the right answer. Science blindly followed is not science; it's religion.
Six distinct sedimentary units are identified in the stratigrapy surrounding this eruption which occured before human habitation of the area. Tsunami deposits have been identified as being associated with the eruption as well. Sedimentary analysis also indicates the eruption expanded the surrounding lake and caused a week long flood.
Initally the event was dated at 130 CE based on carbon dating techniques. This was seen to be a little inaccurate and so geophysical techniques were utilised to identify tephra laminations in the sedimentary record which were sourced from the eruption. The extent of tephra deposits indicates a massive eruptive column and cloud which would have been visible from China and Rome. Records from China and Rome correlate to what would be observed at the time of the eruption and so the eruption can be dated exactly to 186CE.
A different, and much more interesting, eruption of Taupo was the Oruanui eruption. This is the world's largest known volcanic eruption for the last 70 000 years and occured around 24 500BC. Information for it can be found at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oruanui_eruption
The very shape of Lake Taupo is derived from this eruption as it was so massive. Tephra from the eruption can be up to 200 meters thick in the sedimentary record, and 1 000km away an 18cm ash layer (18cm is still a pretty thick layer in this circumstance) has been identified to be from this eruption.
This eruption occured far before human records and thus dating it relies on geophysical techniques. Techniques utilised would have included been stratigraphic correlation from around the world of sedimentary layers and the fossil record (macro and microscopic), atmospheric and particulate composition determination from ice-cores and geophysical analysis of the areas geomorphology just to name a few.
Note: dating this does not involve radioisotope dating, it is all geophysical.
Right, sorry for that lengthy post. This is not blind following of science and these eruptions are verified and accepted by the scientific community.
This is important because deep ice is under enormous pressure, hundreds of bars. We also know that liquid water is found even at -70C at those pressures. And we know that CO2 is tens of times more soluble than nitrogen and oxygen at those pressures and temperatures. Yet ice core dating assumes that the bubbles found in ice core occlusions are representative of the ancient atmosphere.
So what I am questioning is not science's ability to find one matching testing methodology or even correlating data once they are collected; what I am asking is demonstrated, predicted proof of science's understanding. For instance, take the famous lost squadron that landed on, and was abandoned on, Greenland in '42. Conventional estimates of ice coverage in 46 years were 15 to 20 meters' coverage. The actual coverage was about 80 meters. What I'm saying is, show me where science now understands this process; where someone in print has said "I'm off to core Greenland to 1,200 meters, where I shall find sediment of the Hatepe eruption" followed by print records of that scientist actually finding sediment of the Hatepe eruption at 1,200 meters.
Heck, show me the gas equations for the firn to ice to water transition as precipitation is covered by more precipitation. Show me a model of deep ice explaining gas diffusion and examples of its verification. At least show me why direct CO2 and temperature measurements from the late 18th and early 19th centuries should be thrown out in favor of proxy studies and ice cores. What you've shown me in these two examples are one example of possible partial correlation of a correlating discipline to a datable historical event and one example of inter-discipline correlation without a datable historical event. Both are interesting; neither provide any proof that our current source of knowledge warrants turning over the world's socio-economics to the CAGW crowd.
How are they less efficient? Last I checked they use 1/10th the electricity of fluorescent bulb. You can use a voltmeter to check the actual electric pull from several electric sockets.werepossum post=18.73528.822949 said:Good ideas, except for a couple of things. First, LEDs are still less efficient than fluorescent tube lighting, high wattage metal halide, and almost all high and low pressure sodium lighting, although they are getting scary good in efficiency. We are just starting to use them in commercial designs (other than low wattage things like exit signs) within the last year.
Two 32W T8 835 lamps driven by a 0.88 ballast factor instant start ballast outputs 5,016 lumens for 58 watts, or 86.5 lumens per watt. Four 32W T8 835 lamps driven by a 0.88 ballast factor instant start ballast outputs 10,032 lumens for 112 watts, or 89.6 lumens per watt. 54W T5HO lamps provide about the same efficiency; 28W T5NO lamps provide the highest, about 98 to 101 lumens per watt. A 1,000 watt high pressure sodium lamp provides 112,000 mean lumens at 1,059 watts or about 105.8 lumens/watt.crimson5pheonix post=18.73528.823269 said:How are they less efficient? Last I checked they use 1/10th the electricity of fluorescent bulb. You can use a voltmeter to check the actual electric pull from several electric sockets.werepossum post=18.73528.822949 said:Good ideas, except for a couple of things. First, LEDs are still less efficient than fluorescent tube lighting, high wattage metal halide, and almost all high and low pressure sodium lighting, although they are getting scary good in efficiency. We are just starting to use them in commercial designs (other than low wattage things like exit signs) within the last year.
Sorry, I meant sediments deposited within the ice - although I suppose I shouldn't have used the word "sediments" if I wanted to be understood by a geological student. Mea culpa.raemiel post=18.73528.823232 said:SNIP
I realise that you initially referred to ice-coring but you then (even in the bold section) broadened your question to geophysical correlation.
I quote:
"Let's say a particular volcano erupted in 1312 and was well documented - where are the projects that accurately predicted the depth of burial for that layer of sediment?"
I provided two such projects for you, one of which has been accurately verified with human records and another which has been verified with an acceptible level of certainty. The Oruanai eruption is very well known in geophysical disciplines and is used as a perfect example of stratigraphic correlation and demonstration of sedimentary layering and dating.
Claiming that these dates or events or correlations are not known as certainties and thus are of dubious value means that you must hold this view for all sciences and as such all research is in vain as it is not able to be objectively proved.
I apologise that I cannot provide data on ice-cores specifically but that is not my discipline, instead I provided a suitable substitute using geophysical cross-correlation (a substitute you allowed in your challenge).
In answer to your questioning the validity of cores due to our lack of knowledge of depths: that is the point of correlation. It is possible to determine sedimentation or ice accumulation rates for specific basins or areas. The process of doing this though is of limited value as it is time consuming and very localised (particularly with ice accumulation). Instead it is suitable to correlate data from one core (ice or sediment) or area with data from another area or core (where the chronostratigraphy is known already) to date the historical horizons one chooses to analyse.
This principle of cross-correlation is one of the bedrocks of the geophysical discipline (ha geology joke yay!) and claims that it is inaccurate would thus call the whole scientific area into question. Believe me this, along with the other principles of stratigraphy and geology, have been tested numerous times and are not just blindly followed.
Sorry, I don't always end up rechecking threads I post in right away...Sayvara post=18.73528.805517 said:Uhm... reference to that Life-Cycle Analysis? I don't believe ya.clarinetJWD post=18.73528.801593 said:No. No. No. No. Hybrids, no. Not only from the viewpoint that they suck all the fun out of driving, but environmentally. Yes they are efficient while in use, but the energy cost of creating the batteries and electronics, etc. that goes into a hybrid, and then into recycling when it outlives its usefulness is astronomical. Your average Jeep is actually friendlier to the environment in the long run, so no. No hybrids.
Yes, almost all high-power LEDs are more efficient than filament bulbs - we were discussing the efficiency of LEDs versus fluorescent and arc lamps, and how close we are to LEDs becoming our main source of lighting. You bring up a good point, though; one of the problems with LEDs is the narrow spectrum of radiation. Take low pressure sodium lamps, which also radiate in a very narrow bandwidth. Low pressure sodium is the most efficient light source available, but nobody wants it (unless you're very near a powerful observatory) because of its low CRI (Color Rendering Index.) Sunlight is considered to have a CRI of 100 by default, meaning something in sunlight looks correct to human eyes. That's because all the spectra we can see is present in sunlight. The color green is green because the object emits or reflects light most strongly in the wavelength we call green. Similarly, incandescent or filament light is considered to have a CRI of 100 because things "look right" in incandescent light, even though we know that incandescent light is much more heavily weighted toward the red end of the spectrum compared to sunlight.goodman528 post=18.73528.823598 said:Stop with all the stats and figures already.
LEDs are more efficient for a very simple reason. LEDs work because of electron-hole recombination, sounds complicated, but all that means is you can control the frequency of light you are generating. Which you can't do with a filament bulb. So, you can see more of the light generated by LEDs then by filaments. Touch a filament bulb, it's hot, touch an LED, it's not hot. This heat is the light you could not see. I think in Halogen bulbs all the Halogen does is make the Tungsten burn differently, so the some logic still applies.
Don't stick volt meters into mains sockets, please, I know it's high resistence and stuff, but you might just kill yourself. It's not worth it.
Golf claps to you sir for knowing the truth. We can do something about global warming, but we need to realize that it is natural. The idea that we created it is a ruse to either force people to buy certain products or to put money in someone's pocket. Polution is the bigger concern. Here is an article to show how you can't trust all the doomsayers about global warming.nmmoore13 post=18.73528.798440 said:Solution: realize global warming is not man made.
I too believe global warming is mostly natural, and that CO2 inevitably increases as temperatures increase. Animals are always faster to increase activity with increased temperature than are plants, after all. But humans are also responsible for some of the increase in CO2 concentrations. Whether or not CO2 is at or past saturation in global warming, there are still other nasty effects such as acid rain and ocean acidification from increasing CO2 concentrations. Therefore I think we can, and should, find ways to decrease CO2 emissions and to reduce CO2 concentrations.wgreer25 post=18.73528.827913 said:Golf claps to you sir for knowing the truth. We can do something about global warming, but we need to realize that it is natural. The idea that we created it is a ruse to either force people to buy certain products or to put money in someone's pocket. Polution is the bigger concern. Here is an article to show how you can't trust all the doomsayers about global warming.nmmoore13 post=18.73528.798440 said:Solution: realize global warming is not man made.
http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2005/05/27/antarctic-ice-a-global-warming-snow-job/
I can remember Al Gore saying back in the early 90's that if we didn't do something about global warming that very soon coastal citys would start to be under water. People need to start calling out these idiot polliticians when they make these stupid statements.
wgreer25 post=18.73528.827913 said:.....etc........
We can do something about global warming, but we need to realize that it is natural. The idea that we created it is a ruse to either force people to buy certain products or to put money in someone's pocket.
......etc......
nmmoore13 post=18.73528.798440 said:Solution: realize global warming is not man made.
Jazzyluv post=18.73528.807645 said:The ice is not melting faster than all the "experts" said, it did in 2007, but this year we had a 30%, get that, 30% increase over ice at the same time last year. The "experts" were wrong, even they can be full of shit, even they can lie and manipulate to get more funding.
Danny Ocean post=18.73528.821368 said:....etc...
Second, the sun is the route cause of everything. So that point is moot, what are you going to do about the sun, huh?
Finally, yes, I agree. A big chunk of the CO2 we are releasing was in the atmosphere in the first place. All we're doing now is just that: releasing it.
...etc...
Spinozaad post=18.73528.820878 said:Am I allowed to say that we can't stop global warming, since it is quite a natural (taken the earth's age and all of that jazz) occurrence? Or will the Global Warming Police arrest me?
PsykoDragon post=18.73528.815590 said:The misunderstanding probably happened the first time they were researching the effects of pollution on earth. They probably saw a correlation (Which means a POSSIBLE relation in the changes of values between X & Y) between pollution & the ozone layer/polar ice cap. But if they did, then it was probably seen on statistics that were covering relatively short time-frames.
Canadianwookie post=18.73528.801927 said:IT's been said that humans provide only 3% of the CO2 in the atmosphere. (7% is caused naturally by forest fires and other causes...) But switching energy sources is definitely a good idea. I say we go nuclear!
Bored Tomatoe post=18.73528.798457 said:Global warming is nothing more than a heat blip in our earth's history, and like nmmoore13 said, is not man made, no scientific evidence supports global warming....its like saying that man caused all the ice ages as well.
I feel obliged to to say this: First forget absolutely everything you've every heard on this topic. Second, understand this very very simple line of thought:Kukul post=18.73528.798604 said:i dont believe in man-made global warimng, but nuclear energy (especially that gotten from heavy water theyre working on) and electric cars are a good way to make russia bankrupt. (lets hope so)