How long will DVDs/Blu-Ray last?

[Saregon]

I was thinking, I have a fairly substantial collection of DVDs, and then I got to wondering, is it worth it to keep buying them? I don't really keep up on the developments on this front, so I'm asking you guys; how long will DVDs and Blu-Ray, or disc-based media in general, last? Because I don't really want to be in the situation where, like with VHS, my Xbox/DVD/Blu-Ray player dies, and hey, now I have a large collection of thin plastic bricks/frisbees! Basically, do you see this format dying, and if so, when, and what will replace it?

 

[tippy2k2]

Well it will die eventually when we're able to just beam movies into our brains via our cyborg enhancements...

I would expect them to last until at least we're all dead. Maybe the next generation will have to struggle with that but I don't see them going anywhere. The next step is going to be download but the infrastructure just doesn't really exist right now to support just that (at least here in good ol'Merica; I can't speak for other countries). It will in a few decades but for now I'm thinking you're safe.

 

[ohnoitsabear]

I don't think I'd worry about it just yet. I don't keep up with this too much, but from my understanding, there isn't anything on the horizon that's attempting to overtake blu-rays, and it's not like there's much in the way of alternatives now. Sure, there's movie streaming (like Netflix), which is great and all, but doesn't offer nearly all of the features that one can expect from discs (mostly special features), and they can often be lacking in selection.

Long term, I think that as streaming services get larger and larger libraries, they will overtake discs as the primary way that people watch movies. However, because streaming isn't practical for everybody (large bandwidth usage and whatnot), and they don't offer special features, there will still be a large market for disc based movies.

 

[Tom_green_day]

Things like Lovefilm and Netflix aren't really finding a huge amount of success, in the UK at least, so I think for a while DVDs will stay as relevant as they have... Not that that is a lot. I know barely anyone with a film library, other than the basics (Harry Potter, maybe Hot Fuzz and some popular action film) instead they just watch them on the TV when they're on or only see them at the cinemas. I love my DVDs being real, like my games and music, but as far as I see it I'm in the minority.

 

[redknightalex]

Eventually, Blu-Rays and other hard media formats will go the way of the VHS and cassettes as technology moves on. The next big thing, as it appears to be, is instant streaming from the Internet. Problem is, the quality of the streaming is too dependent upon your connection speed (which can suck when you're trying to watch HD on a slower connection) and many don't even have Internet access yet. Furthermore, physical media is still very important today: how else do you think we get those streaming video anyway?

I would hold on to them. I still have mine and prefer to buy a Blu-Ray set of a TV show or movie than stream it online. I'd say around another decade before you stop seeing them being sold.

Also, as long as you have the hardware and the media, it's not obsolete. You will still be able to watch all of those Blu-Rays and DVDs twenty years from now as long as you have the means to watch them.

 

[Saregon]

Gotta say I'm a bit relieved, with the speed technology has developed the last 20 years I was half expecting them to go out the door in a few years, but I'll definitely keep my collection as long as I can still play them. I was just wondering about the prudence of still buying them. Especially with Norway being one of those places where shows take forever to air, and even then only on very expensive channels, I'd much rather have the DVDs and watch them in my own time. But I'm definitely looking forward to the industry pulling its head out of its ass and get a streaming service running where shows air right after it does on TV. Would be nice to be able to follow shows as they air instead of months later when everything has been spoiled.

 

[Orange12345]

I'd say 10 years and they will pretty much be phased out, streaming is becoming the popular choice for viewing content and flash drives offer all the storage space you will ever need

 

[Aris Khandr]

I'm transitioning to digital now. And not just movies. Games, books, music, everything. The next time I move, I want my non-clothing/non-furniture possessions to transport in the back of my car in one trip.

 

[Dangit2019]

However long it takes to find a more advanced and/or marketable product to fulfill the purpose. So far, they're working just fine now.

 

[Eleuthera]

Well, Blu-Rays started appearing what? 7 years ago? 8?

At the moment I know 1 (one) person(couple) with a Blu-ray player/collection. So I'm guessing it'll take at least 5-10 more years for Blu-ray to become the standard, and let's say another 10-15 years for whatever comes next to over take it. Unless streaming really takes off, but legal streaming is pretty much non-existent outside the US.

 

[lechat]

actually a pretty scary time for obsolete formats right now. for starters blu-ray hasn't really taken off yet and we have 2 major consoles ready to be announced.
provided one of the consoles comes equipped with a non proprietary superior method of storage you can expect blu-ray to never really get established as the standard for media. me personally i put my money on SSD usb type drives as the future of storage media, they can't store much atm but the 64 (higher?) gig currently is more than enough for most movies and games and in the near future i can see them reaching into the hundreds of gigs

 

[Petromir]

Well, Blu-Rays started appearing what? 7 years ago? 8?

At the moment I know 1 (one) person(couple) with a Blu-ray player/collection. So I'm guessing it'll take at least 5-10 more years for Blu-ray to become the standard, and let's say another 10-15 years for whatever comes next to over take it. Unless streaming really takes off, but legal streaming is pretty much non-existent outside the US.

Legal streaming is fairly hot in the UK, number of people I know with net flicks or the streaming version of love film exceeds those with noticeable bluray collections. Hell its most of the people without blurry players. I do know a fairly large number of people with bluray collections though, mostly for film.

Bluray needs another update or replacement fairly soon for much of its core audience anyway. Those who care about the picture quality will be mulling over 4k, and as yet theres no optical disk based distribution system out there equipped to handle it. Sony do have a set top box download solution (bundled with some of their recently anounced hyper expensive 4k TVs). RED who make cinema cameras have announced their own set top box that accepts non DRM stuff from anywhere (in limited formats prefers a proprietary one, does accept others, comes with a license so you can transcode non protected files to the right format) and DRM stuff from a new service (that the uploader sets the DRM restrictions and the price and the service takes a cut) thats apparently designed to deliver content to the home and cinema, if its half as good as it sounds it'll be amazing.

The new H265 standard (the new version of H264 encoding used by much of the streaming and download world as well as blurry) should up quality and lower file sizes over its predecessor.

 

[Alfador_VII]

I'm transitioning to digital now. And not just movies. Games, books, music, everything. The next time I move, I want my non-clothing/non-furniture possessions to transport in the back of my car in one trip.

Next logical stage, digital furniture and clothes.

Mind you if you digitise your clothes and everything else, you don't really need furniture any more, other than maybe a chair or two and a table.

Most of my games have gone digital already, but I'm still a fan of shiny frisbees and dead trees. Not sure why.

 

[SnowyGamester]

I say sell them while you can and go digital - it's cheaper and more convenient. Plus they'll probably be worthless in a few years when everybody makes the switch...then you'll just have more coasters than you know what to do with. You know who uses VCRs nowadays? A few stubborn old people at best. Who's going to use DVDs and Blu-rays when they're obsolete? Likely no one, because people capable of playing a DVD are generally capable of streaming a video and are probably more willing to upgrade. Once all the old TVs die out and every one on the market has built in smart features and steaming technology those shiny discs will be but a relic of a more primitive time.

 

[Owyn_Merrilin]

Considering that you can still buy a brand new VHS deck (it'll have a DVD player built in as well, but it counts), I wouldn't worry about Blu-Ray going away any time soon. The idea of an all digital future is seductive, but the truth of the matter is, we don't have the internet infrastructure to support that. Not at 1080P, and certainly not at 4K as someone suggested above. Even 720P would be too much if suddenly everyone who wanted to watch a movie downloaded it from the internet. This is, of course, ignoring the strain that would be put on it by all videogames and music being distributed over the internet, not to mention just daily traffic -- checking Facebook and so on. I'd say we're a minimum of 10 or 20 years away from the internet even being capable of that sort of future, and another five to ten minimum after that for the content providers to move far enough in that direction for physical media to be in trouble. Blu-Ray may have been superceded by a new physical format by then, but considering the way optical formats work, as long as it's still an optical disc, it'll probably be backwards compatible with Blu-Ray, DVD, and CD. If not, just like VHS, you'll be able to find combo players for as long as enough people have collections lying around to make it worth selling[footnote]Read: Until the current crop of 20 somethings is old and/or dead[/footnote].

 

[rob_simple]

I haven't bought a DVD/Blu-Ray for over a year (well, discounting a bunch of second-hand Christmas DVD's I picked up for under a tenner) but it has as much to do with Netflix providing a cheaper alternative as it has to do with me being largely bored with films and all the series I'm interested in running on television first.

Speaking of, I'm much more interested in how long television, in it's current format, will last now that almost every major TV show can be streamed online with little to no difficulty.

 

[Scarim Coral]

I think they will last until when they had somehow found a way to compromise a way on the whole illigel downloads and having permission to do so like some dvd/ blu rays allow you to download it straight from the disc itself (don't ask me how) and the device storage to store them has increase ten fold while still being cheap to purchase it.