Human Extinction - How long can we survive?

Sewora

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Depends. If we make it to a type 1 civilization we can survive for thousands of years. If we make it to a type 2 civilization we'll be immortal (for about 10 000 000 000 000 00 years until the universe ceases to exist, even longer if we learn to control time/dimensional travel/etc.).

But all that is irrelevant, because as is we're in a type 0 civilization which pretty much puts us in an estimated span of existance for only a few hundred years.
 

Strazdas

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There is no theoretical proof that a type 0 civilization can ever become type 1 civilization, so dont get your hopes up.
 

MattRobinson

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People typically think that one of two things are true
1) that the end of the human race will happen in their lifetime
or
2) the human race will never go extinct
 

4RM3D

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If only we were as resilient as this little creature:



The Waterbear (aka Tardigrade) [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tardigrade] is one of the most resilient creatures that live on this planet.
 

Strazdas

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MattRobinson said:
People typically think that one of two things are true
1) that the end of the human race will happen in their lifetime
or
2) the human race will never go extinct
and then there are those that believe that human race will not go extinct in their lifetime however they can heavily change the outcome of future. and they are the most correct ones too.
 

JesterRaiin

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Leppy said:
So, many options for ending human life, what do you feel is going to cause the demise of our race?
Judging by numerous glitches and lags my bet is on BSOD of server running our reality.
 

higgs20

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personally i think as long as the planet survives so will humans, adaptation though technological, and behavioural means has kept us alive so far, if technology keeps advancing and we are willing to use it i imagine we'll stick around for a fair old while.
 

Da Orky Man

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Strazdas said:
There is no theoretical proof that a type 0 civilization can ever become type 1 civilization, so dont get your hopes up.
Just 500 years ago, we used firewood for fuel, fought with swords and pike, and had a life expectancy of about 40 years. Now we use uranium for fuel, fight with EM waves and information, and have a life expectancy of about 80 years. Every 10 years our knowledge base doubles. We've sent probes out of our solar system into interstellar space.

I suspect we will acheive type 1 within time.
 

Robert Ewing

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I believe human will experience a mass population drop for the reasons you gave OP. But let's face it... It's extremely unlikely humanity will go extinct. We are the first species with this sort of intelligence. And we're the first species that has the means in which to prepare for this kind of thing. There are many places in the world with this scenario in mind. There is a bunker in Russia with the seeds of all plant life recorded on Earth. Just in case an ecosystem collapses. We have DNA and resilient equipment, just in case a vital species goes extinct. We have fuck loads of life support machines, and plenty of electric generators to make them work.

Humanity will definitely survive a planetary disaster. No matter how many people are killed, I'm willing to bet at least 50,000 will survive.

The scenario in which I'm NOT sure humanity will survive, is if the sun decides it doesn't like us. That could ruin us royally, beware the sun.

But then again, Imagine if all the worlds economies combined and only funded one almighty space program? It could save us.
 

Istri

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Strazdas said:
hahaha. there are still fools believing we have enough oil for 50 years?
i agree with the rest of your point.
Well, not quite. I just said some random generalization. I know that oil won't probably last that long, probably not even half that time. The idea itself of ending of "oil era", that is presumed to be in 50 years. It's not that there will be oil for 50 years, it's use will be probably restrained in a decade or so. After that, who knows. Maybe synthetic oil, or absolutely new material. Time tells, people, time tells.
 

Arkzism

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apart from something killing us in one fell swoop, (sudden asteroid, sun expanding etc) we should be able to find a way to survive just about anything

our civilization may crumble but as a species we shall live on
 

Rowan93

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If we don't blow ourselves up or die of plague or get a big giant rock landing over our heads or whatever within the next hundred years (I'd give P ~ 40% for that) then I'm going to repeat the words of Ponyville's premier pink party pony, Pinkie Pie, and pronounce proudly: "FOREVER!"

(For a given value of forever: We probably won't outlast baryonic matter, since we're made of that stuff, but it's basically the end of the universe by that point anyway, which is basically the end of time)
 

Sewora

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Da Orky Man said:
Strazdas said:
There is no theoretical proof that a type 0 civilization can ever become type 1 civilization, so dont get your hopes up.
Just 500 years ago, we used firewood for fuel, fought with swords and pike, and had a life expectancy of about 40 years. Now we use uranium for fuel, fight with EM waves and information, and have a life expectancy of about 80 years. Every 10 years our knowledge base doubles. We've sent probes out of our solar system into interstellar space.

I suspect we will acheive type 1 within time.

Going from one form of type 0 to another form of type 0 doesn't take much. Going from type 0 to type 1 however is a significant leap.

But we've got alot of type 1 things going. European Union, Internet, global art and music, all type 1 civilization features.
 

Arkzism

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Rowan93 said:
If we don't blow ourselves up or die of plague or get a big giant rock landing over our heads or whatever within the next hundred years (I'd give P ~ 40% for that) then I'm going to repeat the words of Ponyville's premier pink party pony, Pinkie Pie, and pronounce proudly: "FOREVER!"

(For a given value of forever: We probably won't outlast baryonic matter, since we're made of that stuff, but it's basically the end of the universe by that point anyway, which is basically the end of time)
hell with the plague there will be people who are naturally immune, and the blow our selves up there's bound to be a few people who'll survive
 

dvd_72

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If we manage to work out space travel, then we'll likely survive until the universe ends. The greater and farther we spread out, the less likely any one event would wipe us out.

Or maybe the fact that we would evolve over billions of years would mean that the human race, as it stands now, would die out? I mean, not that we'd notice as we'd be... human 2.0, but still. Philosophically, yea :p
 

Strazdas

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Da Orky Man said:
Strazdas said:
There is no theoretical proof that a type 0 civilization can ever become type 1 civilization, so dont get your hopes up.
Just 500 years ago, we used firewood for fuel, fought with swords and pike, and had a life expectancy of about 40 years. Now we use uranium for fuel, fight with EM waves and information, and have a life expectancy of about 80 years. Every 10 years our knowledge base doubles. We've sent probes out of our solar system into interstellar space.

I suspect we will acheive type 1 within time.
The advances we have made were very small in the grand scale, and it is all technological and not spiritual. we are nowhere close type 1.

Robert Ewing said:
I believe human will experience a mass population drop for the reasons you gave OP. But let's face it... It's extremely unlikely humanity will go extinct. We are the first species with this sort of intelligence. And we're the first species that has the means in which to prepare for this kind of thing. There are many places in the world with this scenario in mind. There is a bunker in Russia with the seeds of all plant life recorded on Earth. Just in case an ecosystem collapses. We have DNA and resilient equipment, just in case a vital species goes extinct. We have fuck loads of life support machines, and plenty of electric generators to make them work.

Humanity will definitely survive a planetary disaster. No matter how many people are killed, I'm willing to bet at least 50,000 will survive.

The scenario in which I'm NOT sure humanity will survive, is if the sun decides it doesn't like us. That could ruin us royally, beware the sun.

But then again, Imagine if all the worlds economies combined and only funded one almighty space program? It could save us.
The preparations is good. however it does not save us for, say, nuclear winter or the start going supernova and hitting us with one of its tails (we wouldnt see it coming, we would be evaporated in an instatnt, there is ALWAYS a chance this will happen any second. no use panicking about it).
Space exploration and space colonization is very far from eachother. there is a reason they didnt build moonbase.

Istri said:
Well, not quite. I just said some random generalization. I know that oil won't probably last that long, probably not even half that time. The idea itself of ending of "oil era", that is presumed to be in 50 years. It's not that there will be oil for 50 years, it's use will be probably restrained in a decade or so. After that, who knows. Maybe synthetic oil, or absolutely new material. Time tells, people, time tells.
This i can agree with. well plant-oil we already have. but they are trying to kill it. we can also run on helium. there are some cars that do that. also there is a Thorium lasers [http://www.txchnologist.com/2011/the-thorium-laser-the-completely-plausible-idea-for-nuclear-cars]. a very plausible idea of having a nuclear reactor in a car that cant go boom. and good think about nuclear fuel, we have enough of it to last thousands of years even if you produce 100% of energy from it, and they are totally environmentally safe. correctly working nuclear plant does 0 damage to environment.

also dont forget zombies. this may look funny now, but there are reasons how zombie like plague can really happen. we already have zombie roden in existence.

If we manage to work out space travel, then we'll likely survive until the universe ends. The greater and farther we spread out, the less likely any one event would wipe us out.

Or maybe the fact that we would evolve over billions of years would mean that the human race, as it stands now, would die out? I mean, not that we'd notice as we'd be... human 2.0, but still. Philosophically, yea :p
except for war with aliens who have a technology to make planets go boom.
as for evolving into another being, we have done that in the past, so this is definitely possible. after all, we dont call our ancestors we evolved from humans. we only call homo sapiens sapiens humans.
 

Zack Alklazaris

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Stop kidding yourselves, we all know were dying in 2012 when the Mayan calender runs out.

Nah, you covered them all short of an alien invasion. I do believe though, that unless space travel becomes viable we will die out long before we burn up when the sun turns into a red giant. Humans use A LOT of resources and when they run out there will be wars. The only real ways to prevent this is by recycling old resources through an atom materializer or space mining. Our recycling program now days can't recycle the same things indefinitely.
 

Sewora

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Strazdas said:
As for evolving into another being, we have done that in the past, so this is definitely possible. after all, we dont call our ancestors we evolved from humans. we only call homo sapiens sapiens humans.
Gross evolution in humans is pretty much gone. Humans tens of thousands of years into the future will pretty much look the same as the modern day human.

Only evolution we're likely to see is that which we generate ourselves. AI, robotics and such. Perhaps humans will look different, but it's not likely going to be because of natural selection.


Robo-Human 2.0, now with built-in nanobot circulatory system!